Author Archives: Ket Garden

by | August 1, 2018 · 9:35 pm

The Fed kept the interest rate unchanged at 1,75 – 2% while Switzerland have negative interest rate at -0,75

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell announced on Wednesday that it kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged. The statement comes after a two-day meeting of the FOMC, which decides on monetary policy.

Powell said the job market would remain strong and inflation would stay around the 2 percent target for “several years.” This is great for the U.S because it gives the Fed some tools to use if the trouble are coming back. But what about the rest of the world? Are they healthy?

The picture is different in Switzerland. The Swiss National Bank kept its benchmark three-month Libor at -0,75 percent on June 21st, 2018. Interest rate in Switzerland reached an all time low of -0,75 percent in January of 2015, and it`s still at the same low-level. But they are not alone.

Denmark followed Switzerland in 2015 and dropped the interest rate to -0,75 only a month after them. The Danish central bank follows the path set by the ECB and the key rate will be raised or lowered when the ECB changes the refinance rate.

The Danish central bank`s main policy aim to hold the euro`s exchange rate within 2,25 percent either above or below 7,46038 kroner in an effort to keep inflation low and provide stability for exporter. Now the Danish rate is -0,65.

Sweden joined the negative interest club, and the central bank of Sweden held its benchmark interest rate at -0,5 percent on July 3rd, as widely expected, saying monetary policy needs to continue to be expansionary for inflation to remain close to target despite strong economic activity.

Japan is the last country in the world to have negative interest rate. They reached an all time low of -0,1 percent in July this year. The BOJ vowed to keep rate extremely low for extended period of time and opted for flexible bond buying at its July 2018 meeting.

In addition, Japan`s policymakers left its key short-term interest rate unchanged at -0,1 percent and kept its 10-year government bond yield target around 0 percent.

In other words; you are lending your money to governments and you are paying them interest for that, which mean it`s cheaper to put your money under your mattress. But that strategy can be very risky.

The goal is to make people spend money rather than pay a fee to keep it safe. This is intended to incentivize banks to lend money more freely and businesses and individuals to invest. This is how you make growth.

During deflationary periods, people and businesses hoard money instead of spending and investing. The result is a collapse in aggregate demand, which leads to prices falling even further. This again will lead to a slowdown in production and output which means higher unemployment.

Negative interest rates can be considered a last-ditch effort to boost economic growth, which means when all else has proved ineffective and may have failed. 21 countries like Spain, Italy, Greece, France, Finland and Malta to name a few, are holding its interest rate at 0,00. The Euro zone is joining the club.

In 2014, the ECB instituted a negative interest rate that only applied to bank deposits intended to prevent the Euro zone from falling into a deflationary spiral.

The ECB held its benchmark refinancing rate at 0 percent on July 26th and reiterated that the monthly pace of the net asset purchase will be reduced to €15 billion from September to December 2018, and will then end.

The ECB expect the interest rate to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to 2 percent over the medium term.

The risk surrounding the euro area growth outlook can still be assessed as broadly balanced. Uncertainties related to global factors, notably the threat of protectionism, remain prominent.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

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by | July 30, 2018 · 9:55 pm

The European Union rose “only” 0,4 percent in Q1 of 2018

Last week I talked about America`s fantastic growth of 4,1 percent on quarter in Q2 of 2018, and this is only the beginning. It is no doubt; President Trump must be doing something right. But, what about the European Union?

GDP in the European Union rose «only» 0,4 percent on quarter in the first three months of 2018. Not much to write home about. But the growth have never been above 1 percent since the financial crisis in 2008.

The European Union reached an all time high of 1,30 percent in 1999 and that is right before the tech bubble burst. Since then it has been a dead fish, reaching an all time low of -2,60 percent in the first quarter of 2009.

At the same time we can see that the unemployment rate reached a record low of 6,80 percent in February of 2008, and that`s right before the financial crisis. It reached an all time high of 11 percent in February 2013, but in May this year it fall down to 7 percent again.

This isn`t good enough if we are living in a capitalistic world.

The European Union in Brussels are nothing more than unelected bureaucrats. Draghi and the ECB have, just like Japan and the U.S «printed» a lot of money, and will continue to do so. If they can`t turn around the ship, they need to consider a strong cheerleader.

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker had a meeting with President Trump last week. They were talking about trade, free trade and tariffs. Mr Trump`s goal is to make better deals so both the U.S and the EU can take more profit and prosper.

I think that the EU should be glad for that and they need to hurry up. The U.S is the world`s third biggest exporter, yet exports account «only» for 13 percent on GDP. Exports in the U.S reached an all time high of 215328 USD million in May this year, which is pretty impressive.

The EU has 28 member states and the biggest among them all is Germany (21 percent of total GDP), the United Kingdom (15 percent), and France (15 percent).

Exports of goods and services account for 46 percent of GDP while imports account for 42 percent, adding 4 percent of total GDP. But this is about to change. If the UK contribute with 15 percent of the total GDP in the EU, then what will happen to their growth after Brexit?

That being said; nor is the UK a success story. The British economy grew by 0,1 percent in the first three months of 2018 and well below 0,4 percent in the previous period. It is the lowest growth rate since a 0,1 percent contraction in Q4 2012.

The largest contribution to growth in the UK was from household spending at 0,2 percentage points. From the production side, the service industries made the largest contribution to GDP growth, followed by production.

Agriculture, the smallest component within the output approach of GDP made no contribution to growth to one decimal place, while construction deducted from GDP growth. The service industries increased by 0,3 percent.

Positive growth was recorded within all sub-sectors of the services industries; distribution, hotels and restaurants (0,1 percent vs -0,1 percent).

President Trump have repeatedly said that the EU have treated the US very bad. I have written many articles about that long before Mr Trump`s inauguration. The European Commission has fined Google €4,34 billion for breaching EU antitrust rules this month.

In May 2009, Intel was imposed with a 1,06 billion euro fined for abusing its market dominance on central processing units. Microsoft has been in trouble with the Commission on several occasions. In 2004, the Commission ruled that Microsoft had abused its market dominance.

In 208, the Commission fined Microsoft nearly 900 million euros for charging «unreasonable» royalty fees. In 2013, another fine of 561 million euros was imposed on Microsoft. This time for failing to comply with the Commission`s ruling that it had to allow users to more easily choose a prefered web browser.

The European Commission fined Facebook for 110 million euros in May this year in relation to its takeover of WhatsApp. Facebook acquired the messaging service in 2014 for $19 billion, but provided the Commission with misleading information about the acquisition.

In August 2016, the Commission ruled that tech giant Apple had received illegal tax benefits from Ireland worth up to 13 billion euros. Ireland was ordered to recover the unpaid tax from Apple, plus interest.

As early as 1966, British Politician Tony Benn said that «Communism run by commissars from Moscow did not work, and nor will capitalism run by commissioners in Brussels. Both deny people their right to develop in their own way.»

Now, under President Donald Trump, big companies like Apple are moving home to the United States with billions of dollars. Apple alone, are bringing in $230 billion. They will build new plants and a magnificent campus.

They will spend their money wisely and the money will be in the U.S. All this is possible because of Trump`s tax cuts and reforms. This is how you make growth.

 

 

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by | July 27, 2018 · 9:58 pm

Trump`s tax cuts and reforms are working, and 4,1 percent growth means the strongest growth rate since the third quarter of 2014

America is growing fast. The United States are growing faster than China. The U.S economy advanced an annualized 4,1 percent on quarter in Q2 of 2018, while China grew by «only» 1,8 percent. That`s a bomb.

The Chinese economy advanced 6,7 percent YoY in June quarter of 2018. Last year, the economy expanded by 6,9 percent, beating the government target of around 6,5 percent and following a 26 year low of 6,7 percent in 2016. But, the United States can come up to that level very soon.

Trump`s tax cuts and reforms are working, and now we can all see right in front of us. The U.S economy advanced in the second quarter of 2018 and it will continue. This is just the beginning. The growth can reach 6 percent and compete with China.

The U.S exports jumped 9,3 percent (3,6 percent in the previous quarter), and imports rose at a much slower pace. 0,5 percent compared to 3 percent. The impact from trade was 1,06 percent, which is much better than -0,02 percent in the first quarter, and this is the highest contribution since the last three months of 2013.

4,1 percent growth means the strongest growth rate since the third quarter of 2014 amid higher consumer spending and soybean exports while business spending slowed. Spending of durable goods rebounded 9,3 percent compared to -2 percent and rose faster for nondurable goods; 4,2 percent compared to 0,1 percent and services; 3,1 percent compared to 1 percent.

Larry Kudlow said in his speech today that this is just the beginning. They have fixed a world broken trade system, and business investment is booming. 9 to 10 percent in the beginning of this year.

This is important because it is the key to productivity which is the key to growth which is the key to real rising wages. Big corporations like Apple are also coming back to the U.S.

This is a boom that is sustainable, Kudlow said.

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by | July 26, 2018 · 8:18 pm

Donald Trump is the best negotiator that we`ve seen in decades and America is back

There is no doubt; Trump is a great negotiator. The best in decades. He know how to play this game, mainly because he is a business-man. He made a deal with “the rocket man” and now he is making a deal with the EU. Mr Trump is making America great again, and Trump is a good cheerleader.

US and EU agreed today to work toward zero tariffs and zero barriers. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker didn`t reveal any details on what they specifically agreed to. Nor did President Trump.

“We will also work to reduce barriers and increase trade and services, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, medical products as well as soybeans,” Trump said. “Soybeans is a big deal.”

The farmers have supported Trump despite the fact that the prices of Soybeans has plummeted. Now, this has changed. The European Union is starting to buy soybeans from the U.S immediatly and EU is a new market that have opened up for them. That`s what I call business.

Foe or frenemy? Trump calls EU leader “smart” after ripping Europe.

The U.S has lost a lot of money on the deal with EU so far. That is about to change. In proposing new trade talks with the European Union, Trump said, “we want to further strengthen this trade relationship to the benefit of all American and European citizens.”

So, why is a trade agreement so important? International trade is important for the Netherlands and the European Union. Like international investment, it generates economic growth and employment. Around a third of the Netherlands` national income is related to trade.

59% of the Dutch population work for a company that imports and/or exports goods and services. In addition, 800,000 people work for foreign companies operating in the Netherlands. Trade is therefore very important to their economy.

That`s why the Dutch government aims to make effective international trade deals. Like the Transatlantic Trade and Investment partnership (TTIP) between the EU and the US. The Netherlands stands to gain from this trade agreement between the EU and the US.

The Dutch and American economies are already closely linked. The Netherlands is the third largest investor in the U.S. While the U.S is the Netherlands` largest trading partner outside the EU. The Netherlands exports goods to the value of €20 billion to the U.S every year.

European carmakers climbed after President Donald Trump backed off his threat to levy tariffs on cars imported to the U.S during a meeting with Juncker. Many automaker shares jumped on Thursday after the good news.

Germany`s VDA auto industry association called the meeting “a big step forward” and “good news for industry and consumers on both sides of the Atlantic.”

“We had a big day, very big,” Trump said during a press conference with Juncker. “We are starting the negotiation right now, but we know where it is going.”

Mr Trump is a winner and America is back.

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by | July 26, 2018 · 4:00 am

DSA are socialists because they share a vision of a humane social order based on popular control of resources and production

Democratic socialists are rising in America, but who are they? DSA stands for Democratic Socialists of America, and on their website they say that “DSA is the major organization on the American left with an all-embracing moral vision, systematic social analysis, and political praxis rooted in the quest for radical democracy, social freedom, and individual liberties.”

The party has been around since 1982, and it started as an activist organization. In the early 80`s, they had meetings and talked about Carl Marx. According to their own website they say; «….that both the economy and society should be run democratically to meet human needs, not to make profits for a few.»

DSA is founded by two organizations from the 60s and 70s, which is New American Movement and Students for a democratic society (SDS). SDS is the group that produced Bill Ayers, Bernadine Dohrn and The Weather Underground terrorist group that was responsible for 25 bombings in the early 1970`s.

In 2011, the DSA joined the Anti-fa group in the Occupy Wall Street movement from day one. At that time, the DSA had only 6,500 members, but now they have more than 24,000 members. The group has mounted a national student debt campaign. The group also supported the «Black lives matter» movement.

The Occupy Wall Street (OWS) was a protest movement that began only six days after 9/11.

The movement started in Zuccotti Park, located in New York City`s financial district, receiving global attention and spawning a surge in the movement against economic inequality worldwide.

The OWS slogan “We are the 99%,” refers to income inequality and wealth distribution in the US between the wealthiest 1% and the rest of the population.

Occupy London began in solidarity with the Occupy Wall Street protests in New York, and it was a movement for social justice and real democracy in London, England. It started 15 October 2011, and it was a part of the international Occupy movement.

Some media described it as an “anti-capitalist” movement.

They also helped raise money for the national network of abortion funds. They want free universal health care and a guarantee of basic income. Their favorite president candidate was Bernie Sanders in the 2016 election.

DSA are working to legitimize socialism as a mainstream part of US politics. On their website they say; “We are socialists because we share a vision of a humane social order based on popular control of resources and production, economic planning, equitable distribution, feminism, racial equality and non-oppressive relationships. We are socialists because we are developing a concrete strategy for achieving that vision, for building a majority movement that will make democratic socialism a reality in America.”

It says “popular control of resources and production.” That sounds to me like Carl Marx. So, what is the difference between Socialism and Communism? Lenin called himself a Democratic Socialist. He said;

“We Social-Democrats always stand for democracy, not “in the name of capitalism,” but in the name of clearing the path for our movement….”

This Lenins-phrase describes the strategy of DSA.

 

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