Author Archives: Ket Garden

by | August 15, 2018 · 9:33 pm

J C Penny are declining alongside other big name retailers like Macy`s that reported a disappointing gross margin outlook

The competition in the retail market is huge. Just look at J C Penny. That stock has plummeted. It peaked in February 2007. Right before the financial crisis it peaked at $85, and now the same stock can be traded for $2,41. What a ride.

J C Penny is not alone. Swedish H&M is in the same boat. The stock peaked in February 2015, but the journey from 363 SEK to 125 SEK is huge. They both need to change their strategy as soon as possible as online retailers are flooding the market all around the world.

J C Penny was founded in 1902 by James Cash Penny and William Henry McManus. That`s 116 years ago. It is an American department store chain with 850 locations in 49 U.S states, and Porto Rico.

The company has been an internet retailer since 1998. It has streamlined its catalog and distribution while undergoing renovation improvements at store level. Competitors like Alibaba, Amazon and Ebay will push their prices down. So will competition from Wal-Mart, Kohls, Macys and Target.

The arrows are going in the opposite directions. Prices and lower margins are going down while house prices are going up. Internet retailers can afford to push down the prices because they don`t have any stores.

With 98,000 employees and growing wages it speak for itself. On January 15, 2014, the company announced it was closing down 33 underperforming stores and laying off 2,000 employees. A year later, they announced that they would close 39 underperforming stores nationwide and layoff 2,500 employees and the trend has been going since then.

In May 2018, the company reported an adjusted loss of $69 million in the first quarter and lowered its projections for the year. Sales fell 4 percent.

Earlier this year, J C Penny announced it would cut 360 jobs at its stores and corporate headquarters. They lowered its earnings forecast for the year to 13 cents per share at best, and said it can lose as much as 7 cents.

J C Penny finished the quarter with just $181 million in cash, which is down from $363 million a year ago. Much of the big decrease was because of a $190 billion debt replace. Not only that; in May, they announced resignation of their CEO Marvin Ellison.

Gross margin has declined significantly since 2016, but the U.S Census Bureau reported strong retail sales growth in May and June which can be positive for J C Penny. Sales at departments stores increased 1,8 percent YoY in May and were flat in June.

I said it many year ago; the retailer market is dead. Just look at the trend. Retailers must wake up before they end up like Radio Shack. New business models must be developed and there is no doubt that a few of them will win at the end.

It will be an enormous wild ride for the JCP stock from start on Thursday.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | August 10, 2018 · 4:27 pm

The Russia hoax, liars, leakers and liberals are all about corruption at the highest level

The Dems still cannot belive that Trump won the election in 2016. They still blame on Putin and Russia, but President Trump won despite the fact that nearly everybody in MSM tried to destroy him. Not only that, the FBI and the Deep State tried to steal the election. It is corruption at the highest level.

Analyst Gregg Jarret reveals the real story behind Hillary Clinton’s deep state collaborators in government in his book The Russia Hoax. The illicit scheme to clear Clinton and frame Donald Trump. His book is now a New York Times best seller.

Judge Jeanine Pirro is also out with a book called Liars, Leakers and Liberals. The case against the Anti Trump conspiracy. Another New York Times bestseller. This is the story the Fake News media doesn’t want you to hear. A withering indictment of the Deep State plot against Trump and a firsthand account to the real presidency.

At this point in American history, people are the victims of a liberal sabotage of the presidency unlike anything we’ve ever witnessed. Nevertheless President Trump continues to fight every day to keep his promise to Make America Great Again.

This is bad, and much deeper than everyone thought. Mueller’s team is about corrupting justice. This is a story about people who think they have more power than anyone else, and they belive that the law doesn’t matter. Thats what Mueller’s team is about.

Pirros book uncovers the elements of this conspiracy, including fake news propaganda, law enforcement corruption at the highest level, national security leaks by the intelligence community, bureaucratic resistance to lawful and constitutional executive orders issued by the duly elected president and crooked deals with foreign governments by U.S officials sworn to defend the U.S constitution.

A nation cannot survive treason from within, but this is not unique to the U.S. We all know the story behind John F Kennedy. People doesnt belive in the Warren commission story. They blame on the police force in Texas, and the Deep State in the U.S.

Right after Trumps inauguration, he said Look to Sweden, and he is right. Sweden is burning. A country that have a similar story. Prime Minister Olof Palme was killed, but people doesnt belive in the story in a case that still is open. People is Sweden blame on the Police force. Just like the U.S.

Swedish author Jan Guillou write about a similar story in his book The Enemy within. A novel about Ewa Tanguy. She transferred early in the novel from the fraud squad of the Swedish police to Sapo, the National Security Police, a branch which she herself distinguishes on several occasions from the real police.

Ewa have colleagues whose methods are not simply questionable but even illegal. More worrying to Ewa, and presumably the author, is the extent to which the not so good cops can behave badly with the sanctions of the law.

The author has his own reason for a grudge against Sapo. In 1973 he and fellow journalist Peter Bratt revealed the existence of a government agency which secretly gathered information on Swedish citizens at home and abroad, using illegal surveillance. The revelation caused a scandal in Sweden.

While the work is one of fiction, its firm basis in reality is clear to any reader whose country has introduced such laws to further the so-called war on terrorism. A press review quoted in the book itself describes the text as not a fiction but more of a warning cry. A view clearly supported by the interview with the author that follows the body of the text.

Contrary to the conventional police drama, this novel raises more questions than it answers, not only about the guilt or otherwise of those eventually convicted, but also about the rights of such suspects both before and after arrest, about laws designed to target particular groups in a community, and about the destruction of aspects of democracy by the very processes that are supposed to protect it.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | August 7, 2018 · 9:10 pm

The sales for clothing and footwear in Europe and North America will fall from more than 50 percent of the global market in 2017 to less than half in 2018

The luxury goods industry has faced a number of changes over the past two decades. Michael Kors is one of them. Kors have suffered some missteps and weakening demand as it tried to straddle the luxury and affordable accessories categories.

In order to reinstate it`s cache it started offering fewer online promotions, closed down underperforming stores and began innovating on new product lines which includes men`s footwear.

Kors is investing heavily in digital platforms in order to offer a more seamless customer experience at a time when online buying continues to expand.

 

 

International growth is anticipated to grow. Especially with acquisitions of brands such as Jimmy Choo. Credit Suisse reiterates an outperform rating on Michael Kors in front of the retailer`s FQ1 update.

«Our checks suggest F1Q trends were stable or slightly better than F4Q,» Credit Suisse writes.

The supply chain and retail network for the luxury goods industry have spread globally. However, Europe and the US have continued to account for a disproportionate share of sales. Although historically the industry has operated on a «West versus the Rest» basis, recent trends underline the growing importance of Asia, the Middle East, Latin America and Africa.

The sales for clothing and footwear in Europe and North America will fall from more than 50 percent of the global market in 2017 to less than half in 2018, while sales in Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa combined will rise above 50 percent and continue to increase in subsequent years.

Most industry observers attribute this development not just to growing sales in emerging markets but also to innovative retail concepts and business models adopted in these regions.

The growing importance of non-western markets for the luxury goods industry has been supported by supply chain leadership, technological innovation and international investment. These factors will help maintain further strong growth in these geographical markets.

Italy is once again the leading luxury goods country in terms of the number of companies, while France has the highest share of sales.

China, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, the UK and the US together made up 83 percent of the Top 100 luxury goods companies and 90 percent of Top 100 luxury goods sales.

Cosmetics and fragrances was the top-performing sector in 2016, and the only sector with improving composite luxury goods sales growth, at 7,6 percent. Collectively, millennials and Generation Z will represent more than 40 percent of the overall luxury goods market by 2025, compared with around 30 percent in 2016.

Kors latest fashion is their exclusive graffiti print which celebrates street art and its influence on fashion. Inspired by 1980s New York, their new black and white graffiti print puts a graphic spin on todays fashion favorite jackets, shoes and bags.

Kors is still a solid company and a strong increase in store renovations will be rolled out more aggressively over the next few years. In addition, the company wants to expand Jimmy Choos store network, increasing the number of stores from 185 today to about 250.

Michael Kors Holdings Limited is expected to report earnings on Wednesday August 8, 2018 before the open, and the report will be for the fiscal Quarter Jun 2018. The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is 1, which is 6 percent higher than Wall Street.

Revenues are also expected to come in higher at 1,16B as compared to the sell sides consensus of 1,14B. YoY EPS and revenue growth are expected to come in healthy at 25 percent and 22 percent respectively.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | August 6, 2018 · 9:21 pm

Snap`s self-serve ads is finally ready to launch, but the drawback here is sliding ad inventory prices

Snap Inc is set to report second-quarter earnings after the market closes on Tuesday August 7. Historically, the company makes big moves in the wake of its quarterly reports. The average single-day price swing is about 24 percent regardless of direction.

Both Facebook and Twitter faces a challenging time. So do Snap Inc. GDPR pushed Facebook`s user counts down compared with the first quarter and that will also impact Snap Inc. Snap is a small company compared to Facebook, and they will not deal with the same level of scrutiny from lawmakers as Facebook.

EPS in March 2017 came in at -$2,31, but have since then been far better with -$,030 a year later. Analysts on average project Snap second-quarter revenue of $250,4 million, up from $182 million in the same quarter last year.

Facebook have the same tools as Snap and that is hurting their profit. Their biggest competitor is also Instagram which makes it difficult for them to be unique. But Snap launched the second version of its Spectacles product, sunglasses that let people take photos and video and use them within the Snapchat app.

This is also the only move that live up to its claims in the SEC filings that Snap Inc is a camera company.

Snap`s self-serve ads is finally ready to launch, but the drawback here is sliding ad inventory prices. Not good in the short run because Snap have only 191 million DAU`s, an increase of 4 million from the Q4 but below estimates of 194 million.

The company has also struggled with the impact of a product redesign in February that was widely criticized. That didn`t help the stock price that crashed to a record low on May 2 after it reported first-quarter earnings.

They missed views on revenue, user growth and several other key metrics, and analysts slashed price targets. The IPO was held in March 2017, and pricing shares were $17. It went up 2,5 percent on Monday and ended the session at $13,05. The stock is down 11 percent in 2018.

Will Snap Inc take a hit from the implementation of Europe`s GDPR (General Data Protection Regulation)? The same types of issues that led to big declines for Facebook and Twitter.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | August 3, 2018 · 10:39 pm

S&P 500 P/E ratio is 24,34 and the bull market is similar to the 50`s

The bull market continues and the S&P 500 went up in April, May, June and July. So, «Sell in May and go away» would be a disaster for any investor on this planet this year. Just like it was in the 50`s under president Eisenhower. This is not a normal situation in the midterm election.

As you can see from the chart below, similar situation happened in 1954 and 1958. Apple Inc is a big contributor to the bullish market right now, and it just hit a $1 trillion market cap. A milestone we have never seen before for a U.S publicly traded company.

Not only Apple Inc are hitting milestones. Many of the stock exchanges around the world are also hitting now all-time highs. But how expensive are the U.S stocks? The P/E ratio of the S&P 500 has fluctuated from a low of around 6x in 1949 to over 120x in 2009.

The long-term average P/E for the S&P 500 is around 15x, meaning that the stocks that make up the index collectively command a premium 15 times greater than their weighted average earnings.

The trailing P/E ration will change as the price of a company`s stock moves, since earnings are only released each quarter while stocks trade day in and day out. Current S&P 500 PE ratio are down -0,13 percent on Thursday 2 August 2018 (based on trailing twelve month) to 24,34.

Some investors prefer forward P/E which is similar to the trailing P/E, but uses estimates of projected future earnings, typically forecast over the next twelve months. If the forward P/E ratio is lower than the trailing P/E ratio, it means analysts are expecting earnings to increase. If it is higher, analysts expect a decrease in earnings.

These measures are often used when trying to gauge the overall value of a stock index, such as the S&P 500 since these longer term measures can compensate for changes in the business cycle.

A business cycle describes the rise and fall in production output of goods and services in an economy. Business cycles are generally measured using rise and fall in real inflation-adjusted GDP, which includes output from the household and nonprofit sector and the government sector, as well as business output.

Output cycle is therefore a better description of what is measured. The business or output cycle should not be confused with market cycles, measured using broad stock market indices; or the debt cycle, referring to the rise and fall in household and government debt.

To put it into perspective. Apple`s P/E is 18,04. Facebook; 24,56. Netflix; 144,43. Amazon; 165,60. Yelp; 625,17. Groupon; 230,15. Godaddy; 227,27. Under Armour; 136,36. Alibaba; 48,25. S&P 500 is 24,34, so how expensive are they all?

It looks like Amazon are expensive, but that company is up 84,75 percent YoY, while Apple with its 18,14 is up only 35,26 percent. Facebook has lost a lot of money in a few days, and the stock is up only 5,45 percent YoY. Estimated P/E for Tesla in 2019 is – 177,68. The stock went up over 16 percent on Thursday.

Investors need to be aware that the P/E ratio can be misleading a lot of times, especially when the underlying business is cyclical and unpredictable. Cyclical businesses have higher profit margins at the peaks of the business cycles. Their earnings are high and P/E ratios are artificially low. It is usually a bad idea to buy a cyclical business when the P/E is low. A better ratio to identify the time to buy a cyclical businesses is the P/S ratio.

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