Category Archives: Politics

Is this the end of the bull market?

The bull market is 11 years old on Monday, and it is the longest stretch of non stop gains ever. The sell off over the past 12 trading days means that the US stocks are on the edge of a bear market. Therefore; Tuesday will be a test.

If the market goes below 20%, the bull market will officially be over, and we are entering a bear market. After the Great Recession, the bull market started in March 2009. The S&P 500 has gone straight up since then.

The S&P 500 is up 339% and it has been a slow recovery. It`s similar to the recovery from the Great Depression in June 1932 were the S&P 500 skyrocketed 325%. At that time, it was the deepest recession in modern American history.

President Franklin Roosevelt supported the bull market with massive government spending. Later on, Roosevelt pulled back from the program and the Fed tightened its reserve ratios for banks. The economy didn`t recover as much as it should, and tighter monetary and fiscal policy led to a double-dip recession.

This is why the Fed is important now. So are the Trump administration. The Fed cut the rates 50 points only days ago and they will probably come up with more news about the market even this week.

The Fed offers Repo Market $50 Billion more to ease rate pressure. New York Fed Repo Totals $112,93 Billion and Fed`s move to tap liquidity operations will buy time on more rate cuts.

What they do now is great leadership on the world stage. They can`t stop the virus but they can make liquidity.

To contact the author of this story: Ket Garden at post@shinybull.com

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OPEC leaders agree to cut oil production

The Oilprice has declined along with the stock market but Opec leaders agreed to cut production of 1,5 bpd with Russia support as Coronavirus hits demand. At the same time we have 2 and 10 year treasury yield below 1 percent. Investors are not shure how to react to the Coronavirus. A virus that usually has mild or no symptoms at all, according to experts.

Opec members will cut 1,0 mil bpd and its non-Opec allies (led by Russia) will cut by 0,5 mil bpd instead. This is interesting as we look towards OPEC talks on Friday. OPEC will hold a press conference on Friday after the OPEC meeting.

To contact the author of this story: Ket Garden at post@shinybull.com

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Trump made a $3 billion defence deal with Modi and India

President Trump is very popular in the World`s largest democracy India. Yesterday, he visited India and made a speech at the Motera cricket stadium in Ahmedabad city in Gujarat. More than 100,000 came to see Trump and hear him say that the U.S made a deal with India.

The U.S firm Exxon Mobil and Indian Oil signed a deal to help import more Liquefied Natural Gas. Trump said he made a defence deal with India. Not a trade deal, and the deal was a $3 billion military deal. A defence deal.

PM Modi`s nationalist government made tariffs of up to 120% two years ago. Trump and Modi didn`t sign a trade deal, but Modi said that negotiations would continue.

Mr Trump ended the day in the iconic Taj Mahal.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Former Reagan economist Art Laffer said it is the longest recovery in the U.S history, and it is all because of Trump

The Hate Trump Media Mob said Trump will never be a president. The day he was inaugurated, they said he was stupid becuase he wanted to cut taxes. They also said he can`t run the White House like a corporation.

But millions of people voted for Trump and it seems like the majority of the people did the right thing. 61% of the Americans say they are better off today than three years ago (Gallup). Trump made it easier for for ordinary people and corporations by cutting the taxes, and this is why the American economy is booming.

Barak Obama want some credit for it. «Eleven years ago today, near the bottom of the worst recession in generations, I signed the Recovery Act, paving the way for more than a decade of economic growth and the longest streak of job creation in American history,» he wrote in a tweet yesterday.

Former Reagan economist Art Laffer said it is the longest recovery in the U.S history, and it is all because of Trump.

Obama printed money but the recovery was very slow. When Trump entered the White House, things changed very fast. The difference between Obama and Trump is that Obama is a politician while Trump is an economist.

Trump is a businessman and he know how it works. In addition, he have support from economists like Steven Terner Mnuchin and Larry Kudlow. Mnuchin is an American investment banker and civil servant. He is also a former hedge fund manager and investor.

As Secretary of the Treasury, Mnuchin supported the tax reform of 2017 and advocated reducing corporate tax rates. He also supports a partial repeal of Dodd-Frank, citing the complexxity of the legislation.

Kudlow has also been in the game for a very long time. He is an American financial analyst and former TV host. He began his career as a junior financial analyst at the New York Federal Reserve. Later on, he jumped ove to Wall Street.

Kudlow joined the administration of Ronald Reagan as associate director for economics and planning in the Office of Management and Budget.

The U.S has strongest most durable economy in the world, Obama said during his 2016 State of the Union address. The job growth was strong under Obama. At that time, America has put more people to work than Europe, Japan, and all advanced economies combined, so Obama was correct.

I don`t care about left and right. For me they all on the same team. Let`s call it Team America.

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Nationalist party Sinn Fèin are celebrating a historic result in Ireland

The nationalist trend continues in Europe. Similar to the United States under president Trump. A poll on Friday last week revealed that Chancellor Angela Merkel`s party CDU dropped from 21,7 percent to «only» 12 percent. What a bombshell.

Only a few days later, we have a new bombshell. This time it is in Ireland were Sinn Fèin are celebrating a historic result. Sinn Fèin won 37 seats which is an increase of 14 on the 2016 election. Fianna Fàil lost 6 seats, but is the largest party with 38 seats. Only one more.

Image result for sinn fein

The IRA`s former political wing Sinn Fèin`s leader Mary Lou McDonald said the outcome was «something of a revolution in the ballot box». Sinn Fèin used to be a political wing of the Irish Republican Army (IRA), which fought for Irish unity during the decades-long sectarian conflict known as “the troubles.”

This election has been different from others and the main issues has been housing, healthcare and childcare. The answer to that is the nationalist party Sinn Fèin which is not a left-wing party but a nationalist party. A party more like a pragmatic party according to specialists.

This is a complicated phenomen because the party was changed to Sinn Fèin – The Worker`s Party in 1977 and then to the Workers’ Party in 1982. The party has been closely associated with the IRA. Natable organisations that derived from it include Democratic Left and the Irish Republic Socialist Party.

Before the split with the terrorist organisation IRA in 1969-1970, the Workers’ Party was a Marxist-Leninist political party. But the Marxist outlook became unpopular with many of the more traditionalist republicans, and the party/army leadership was criticised for failing to defend northern Catholic enclaves from loyalist attachs.

(These debates took place against the background of the violent beginning of what would become «The Troubles»).

Mr. Varadkar`s center-right party Fine Gael slumped in opinion polls amid crisis in housing and healthcare. They have been trading power for decades along with another center-right party Fianna Fail. A duopol that is now coming to an end.

Both center-right parties had ruled out an alliance with Sinn Fèin during the campaign, and Mr Varadkar said Sinn Fèin was «not a normal party.»

Sinn Fèin support a policy of «critical engagement with the EU», and have a «principled opposition» to a European superstate. It opposes an EU constitution because it would reduce the sovereignty of the member-states.

It also criticises the EU on grounds of neoliberalism. Sinn Fèin MEP Matt Carthy says the «European Union must become a cooperative union of nation states committed to working together on issus such as climate change, migration, trade, and using our common strengths to improve the lives of citizens.

If it does not, EU disintegration becomes a real possibility.

The phrase «Sinn Fèin» is Irish for «Ourselves» or «We Ourselves».The name is an assertion of Irish national soverignity and self-determination; i.e., the Irish people governing themselves, rather than being part of a political union with Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales) under the Westminister Parliament.

Sinn Fèin is the largest Irish republican party, and a republican document of the early 1980`s stated: «Both Sinn Fèin and the IRA play different but converging roles in the war of national liberation. The Irish Republican Army wages an armed campaign….. Sinn Fèin maintains the propaganda war and is the public and political voice of the movement.

The British government stated in 2005 that «we had always said all the way through we believed that Sinn Fèin and the IRA were inextricably linked and that had obvious implications at leadership level.»

«This is not a protest vote», leader of Sinn Fèin Mary Lou McDonald said on national TV yesterday. Why people voted for Sinn Fèin is their deep dissatisfaction with the traditional big two parties in Ireland. What people ask for is an alternative party for government. Huh…sounds like AfD in Germany. Another alternative party.

The risk now is a destabilisation of the Good Friday Agreement. The Belfast Agreement is a pair of agreements signed on 10 April 1998 that ended most of the violence of the Troubles. A political conflict in Northern Ireland that had been going on since the 1960`s.

It was a peace agreement between the British and Irish governemtns, and most of the political parties in Northern Irealand, on how Northern Ireland should be governed.

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