Tag Archives: China

The US unemployment go straight up while the pending home sales go straight down

China`s growth plummeted -6,8 YoY in Q1. The growth in the U.S is still on the right side, coming in at 0,3 percent YoY in Q1. But if you look at the quarter, the growth in China is down -9,8 percent, while the U.S growth is down -4,8 percent.

The annulized 4,8 percent drop in Q1 of 2020 markes the end of the longest period of expansion in America`s history. The drop is the steepest pace of contraction in GDP since the last quarter of 2008 (financial crisis).

The Covid-19 pandemic forced several states to impose lockdown measures in mid-March and that pushed millions of people out of work. The unemployment rate go straight up while the pending home sales go straight down.

Contracts to buy previously owned homes in the US dropped 16,3 percent YoY earlier in March this year, and that is the biggest annual decline since April 2011, amid the Covid-19 crisis. On a monthly basis, pending home sales went down 20,8 percent, which is the largest drop since May 2010.

Unfortunately, it seems like this is just the beginning.

The next quarter can be very ugly, while the unemployment rate can go straight up to Great Depression levels. The growth in the US can plunge more than 30 percent. If that is happening, what do you thing will happen to the pending home sales?

The numbers are expected to get even worse in April as the government surveyed businesses and housholds for the report in mid-March, before majority of people was under some form of a lockdown.

Trump`s economic adviser Kevin Hassett said unemployment in the US can soar to 17 percent. In March the unemployment rate was 4,4 percent in the US.

During the financial crisis, the US lost about 9 million jobs, but now the US is losing that many jobs about every 10 days, Hassett told ABC on Sunday.

This is sad, because all the jobs created since the Great Recession (2008) have been wiped out. So far, we are talking about 26 million and it can be worse. Hassett told ABC the unemployment will surge to levels not seen since the Grat Depression (1929).

During the Great Depression, about 15 million jobs were lost.

So, we know what`s coming. People without job and money will not buy a house.

Pending home contracts generally are seen as a forward-looking indicator of the health of the housing market because they become sales one to two months later. This summer holiday will be very special.

To contact the author of this story: Ket Garden at post@shinybull.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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The Chinese economy shrank 6,8 percent YoY in the first quarter of 2020 which is the first GDP contraction since records began in 1992

We are all in it toghether and the times we are living in right now is historic. Just take a look at China and the Chinese economy that shrank 6,8 percent YoY in the first quarter of 2020. What a drop! This is the first GDP contraction since records began in 1992. Wow.

The reason for the drop is well known; COVID-19. No doubt. Xi and the CCP took action after the virus outbreak and enforced a two-month-long shutdown of all non-essential business activity. Nor did they celebrate a new year, and a shutdown like this is of course very expensive.

Car production in China recorded the sharpest decline which dropped -44 percent. That is a big shock. Last year, approximately 21,36 million passenger cars and 4,36 million commercial vehicles had been produced in China.

The growth for passenger cars has jumped from 7 million in 2008 (financial crisis) to 25 million in 2017. In 2018, every fourth passenger vehicle in the world had been produced in China, and China is ranked first among countries with the largest production of passenger cars in 2018.

As you can see, the growth of the production and sale of vehicles in China have increased rapidly. Its interesting to see that almost all of the leading bestselling cars in China are the product of joint ventres with foreign manufacturers.

Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation (SAIC) has an ongoing cooperation with General Motors (GM). SAIC-GM manufactures and sells Chevrolet, Buick and Cadillac brand automobiles in Mainland China. When the sales drop in China, so it does in the U.S.

Export from China also dropped 6,6 percent YoY to $185 billion in March 2020, compared with marked estimates of a 14 percent fall and after a 17 percent plunge in January-February combined amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

Among the the biggest trade partners, exports fell to the U.S by -20,8 percent. Considering the first quarter of 2020, exports declined 13,3 percent from a year earlier.

However, China`s long term growth potential will not be affected by the short term fallout of the coronavirus pandemic, as the country`s economic fundamentals remain unchanged, the authorities said.

To contact the author of this story: Ket Garden at post@shinybull.com

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Taiwan officially known as Republic of China has been self-ruled since 1950, but China considers Taiwan part of its land that must be reunited with mainland even by force

Tsai-Ing-Wen and the Democratic Progressive Party has won a historic landslide victory in the Taiwan election. They defeated the much more Pro China rival Han Kuo-Yu and the KMT. This is a big surprise and no one would have expected this outcome a year ago.

This is a clear message to the one rule Communist Party in Beijing. The people in Taiwan rejects China`s plan for reunification with the island. It`s a remarkable turnaround for the president, whose party suffered major losses in local elections just a year ago.

I believe that the rise of the party started when Pro Democracy protesters in Hong Kong took to the streets last year. People are more awake today than only a few months ago. Months of ant-govenment protests in nearby Hong Kong boosted Wen`s campaign, and scenes of police cracking down on demonstrators appear to have galvanised younger voters.

Tsai warned that Taiwan`s democratic rights must be preserved, and the country has its own military, currency and a passport accepted in most countries. But, Taiwan does not have a seat at the United Nations, and only 15 countries officially recognise Taiwan`s democratic government. United States is not one of them.

Tsai said that the people in Taiwan reject the one country, two systems model. We respect democracy and our sovereign rights, she said. Huh, it sounds like Trump who is fighting against the globalists in Europe.

On the other side; Washington is Taiwan`s most important ally and trading partner. It will be interesting to see how far the U.S will go to defend Taiwan and what will Xi and the Communists in Beijing do in respond to Tsai Ing-Wen`s win, which gives her a second term in office? The Communists have ramped up pressure on Taiwan and cut off official communication with Tsai in the past.

Tsai Ing-Wen said peace means that China must abondon threats of force against Taiwan. She also said she hope Beijing understands that democratic Taiwan will not concede to threats. China says it will not change position that Taiwan is part of it after Tsai`s re-election.

China claims Taiwan is part of its territory under its “One China Principle”.

We now see a similar situation in Taiwan is it is in Hong Kong. One Country, two systems. Taiwan, officially the Republic of China (ROC), is a state in East Asia.

Taiwanese indigenous peoples settled the island of Taiwan around 6,000 years ago. In the 17th century, Dutch rule opened the island to mass Han immigration. After the brief Kingdom of Tungning in parts of the southern and western areas of the island, the island was annexed in 1683 by the Qing dynastry of China, and ceded to the Empire of Japan in 1895.

Following the surrender of Japan in 1945, the Republic of China, which had overthrown and succeeded the Qing in 1911, took control of Taiwan on behalf of thw World War II Allies.

The resumption of the Chinese Civil War led to the loss of the mainland to the Communist Party of China (CPP) and the flight of the ROC government to Taiwan in 1949. although the ROC government continued to claim to be the legitimate representative of China, since 1950 its effective jurisdiction has been limited to Taiwan and numerous smaller islands.

In the early 1960`s, Taiwan entered a period of rapid economic growth and industrialisation called the «Taiwan Miracle». In the late 1980`s and early 1990`s, the ROC transitioned from a one-party military dictatorship to a multi-party democracy with a semi-presidential system.

Taiwan`s export-oriented industrial economy is the 21st-largest in the world, with major contributions from steel, machinery, electronics and chemicals manufacturing. Taiwan is a developed country, ranking 15th in GDP per capita. It is ranked highly in terms of political and civil liberties, education, health care and human developments.

The political status of Taiwan remains uncertain.

The ROC is no longer a member of the UN, having been replaced by the PRC in 1971. Taiwan is claimed by the PRC, which refuses diplomatic relations with countries that recognise the ROC. International organisations in which the PRC participates either refuses to grant membership to Taiwan or allow it to particitpate only on a non-state basis.

Taiwan is a member of the World Trade Organization, Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation and Asian Development Bank under various offices and institutions that function as de facto embassies and consulates.

Domesticay, the major political division is between parties fvouring eventual Chinese unification and promoting a Chinese identity contrasted with those aspiring to independence and promoting Taiwanese identity, although both sides have moderated their positions to broaden their appeal.

Taiwan officially known as Republic of China has been self-ruled since 1950, but China considers Taiwan part of its land that must be reunited with mainland even by force.

The U.S hailed Tsai`s victory as demonstration of Taiwan`s robust Democratic system. Taiwan`s president Tsai Ing-Wen secures second term in office with 57,1% of votes. The vote is seen as a choice between moving closer to China or resisting push for reunification.

Tsai Ing-Wen told the supporters “today we have defended our democracy and freedom”.

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Home Depot is the largest home improvement retailer in the United States and the best run retailer in the world

So far, it has been a good earnings season with a higher than average seventy-five percent of S&P 500 companies that have reported beating expectations. That was strong enough to push the stock market to record highs.

On Tuesday 19, Home Depot will report earnings before market open. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending October 2019, and the consensus EPS for the quarter is $2,52, which is up from the same quarter last year at $2,51.

The Home Depot is the largest home improvement retailer in the United States, and considered to be the best run retailer in the world. I have been watching this stock for years and it`s interesting and funny to see that they beat estimates time after time.

Home Depot opened up two stores 40 years ago. In 1979, the first two stores, built in spaces leased from J.C Penny that werw originally Treasure Island «hypermarket». As of October 20, 2019, they have 2,285 locations and 413,000 employees.

The founders created a company to keep alive the values that were important to them; Values like respect among all people, excellent customer service and giving back to communities and society.

In December 2006. the Home Depot announced its acquistion of the Chinese home improvement retailer The Home Way. The acquisition gave the Home Depot an immediate presence in China, with 12 stores in six cities.

But the Home Depot didn`t succeed in China. They lack of success in China has been attributed t o the disconnect between The Home Depot`s do-it-yourself ethos and Chinese culture. The market in China is more of a do-it-for-me culture.

So, as of April 2011, Home Depot shut its last Beijing store, the fifth Home Depot to close in China in the previous two years. As of September 16, 2012, all seven of the box stores in China had been shut down, and they has no immediate plans to further expand its specialty stores in China.

The US-China trade war is risky but the impeachment is even more risky. They want to impeach a president that have done so much for its own people, and tax cuts and many reforms have boosted to U.S economy.

Strong consumer activity and low interest rate is helping companies like Home Depot, and this is why they beat earnings all the time. At least for the last two years. But according to DM Martin`s Research, the RMI (remodeling market index) and future bid activity have come off their 2017 peaks in the past several quarters.

The management doesn`t seems to be concerned about the demand. Last quarter they said; «Current health of the U.S consumer and a stable housing environment» was postive for them. Its difficult not to be bullish, and share repurchase can push the EPS higher.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Hong Kong falls into recession

The freedom-fighters continue to protest against the Communists in China, but it isn`t cheap. The Hong Kong economy shrank 2,9 percent YoY in the third quarter of 2019. They`re on the way down to recession for the first time since the third quarter of 2009.

The economy is declining while the government spending are growing at a faster pace. What a toxic mix. Government spending increased 5,3 percent while fixed investment declined 16,3 percent. Private consumption shrank 3,5 percent and exports of goods fell 7 percent.

The freedom-fighters in Hong Kong have used masks for months now, but today they celebrated Halloween. But the Hong Kong police fired tear gas into the crowd of masked Halloween protersters.

People in Hong Kong need to know that the rest of the world is supporting them, and everybody in this world must ask themselves what the value of money is compared to freedom? Readers of Shinebull.com know that money is worthless. Freedom isn`t.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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