California`s strong economic performance relative to other industrialized economies is driven by worker productivity

Califorias economy is bigger than the United Kingdom. If California were a country, it would be the fifth largest economy in the world. Wow! That is pretty impressive. California is home to four of the worlds ten richest people.

Its also home to four of the worlds ten largest companies by market cap. California has nearly 40 million residents and is the most populous state in the United States. Its GDP rose by $127 billion from 2016 to 2017, and their GDP surpassed $2,7 billion, according to federal data.

The United Kingdom has 65 million residents. Thats 25 million more than California, but interestingly it has a smaller GDP. The UKs capital and largest city is London, a global city and financial centre with an urban are the population of 10,3 million.

Californias economic juggernaut is concentrated in coastal metropolises around San Francisco, San Jose, Los Angeles and San Diego. It has 12 percent of the U.S population but contributed 16 percent of the countrys job growth between 2012 and 2017.

California`s strong economic performance relative to other industrialized economies is driven by worker productivity.

All economic sectors in California is growing, except agriculture, and financial services and real estate are the best sectors. Second is the information sector, which includes many technology companies.

California is known for being rich in gold and pearls, and the gold rush starting in 1848 led to dramatic social and demographic changes, with large-scale emigration from the east and abroad with an accompanying economic boom.

That`s 170 years ago.

Now, you can clearly see another boom; a tech boom. California has a thriving technology sector in Silicon Valley. The worlds smartest tech brains are there. So are the biggest tech companies. But the worlds entertainment capital can also be found in Hollywood, California.

All this makes California a global trendsetter in popular culture, innovation and politics. It is the origin of the film industry, the hippie counterculture, the internet and the personal computer, among others.

The San Francisco Bay Area and the Greater Los Angeles Area are widely seen as the centers of the global technology and entertainment industries. Many of the richest people live in San Francisco and the nation`s highest GDP per capita in 2016 was $94,000.

We have a revolution going on. So was it 150 years ago. The industrial revolution started in England. It was the name given to the first factory automation initially in the manufacture of Textiles. At that time, many current US state capitals did not exist.

At that time, London was the biggest city in the world, and England was the biggest trading nation. England produced more steel than the rest of the world put together, and steam engine driven trains were rapidly taking over long distance travel.

150 years ago saw a prolific range of inventions around electricity, culminating in the inventions of the electric light bulb and the electric motor.

Inventors in this field at this time were; Frenchmen Volta (1800 the Volt) and then Ampere (the Amp) followed by Oersted, Faraday and Maxwell. These inventors in Europe were followed by the American Edison probably the most prolific inventor of all time (1847 – 1931).

Edison produced the electric light bulb, the first public supply of electricity, the gramophone, the movies and the thermionic valve-later the triode.

English physicist Sir Joseph Wilson Swan also independently invented the electric light bulb (1860). He also invented Bromide paper (1876) still used today for photographic prints.

150 years ago telephone technology was invented. Initially the transmission of coded text messages over copper wire between England and France by Morse Code and then in the US Alexander Graham Bell invented the telephone to carry voice over the same wires in 1875.

Englishman Charles Darwin publishes his theory of «Origin of Species by means of natural selection» (Now of course supported by genetics. Then dangerous and revolutionary thinking flying in the face of the accepted «Creation» in the Bible.

Now, California and Silicon Valley is the place to be. A place with economic growth which is higher than the United Kingdom. This is an evolution.

 

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The Roku platform allows users to personalize their content selection with cable television replacement offerings and other streaming services

Most people know what Netflix is, but few know what Roku Inc is. Well, few is probably not the right word because Roku Inc have 19,3 million active users (Fourth quarter 2017). A company that was founded in October 2002.

Roku was one of the hottest stocks last year and their shares skyrocketed from its IPO price of $14. The stock went straight up and peaked at $56 in December, but now the stock has plummeted. In other words; Roku is like Netflix in the beginning; Volatile.

Roku Inc is different from Netflix. Roku Inc operates television streaming platform. The company connects users to streaming content, enables content publishers to build and monetize audiences and provides advertisers with capabilities to engage consumers.

Its Roku platform allows users to personalize their content selection with cable television replacement offerings and other streaming services that suit their budget and needs.

Ad-supported channels available on the Roku platform include CBS News, Crackle, The CW Television Network and Vice; subscription channels include HBO Now, Hulu and Netflix, as well as traditional pay TV replacement services like Direct TV Now, Sling TV and Sony Playstation Vue; and transactional channels include Amazon Video, Google Play and Vudu. Its product categories include advertising, Roku TVs and streaming Players.

Netflix has an easier business model. Log in on their website and voila, you can watch your favorite movie. It’s a tech company. Roku is something different; it’s not a hardware company. You need one of their Roku boxes.

The Netflix application was revamped for the Roku 2 HD, Roku 2 XD and Roku 2 XS; the current models now provide the option of subtitles, when the program provides them.

The Roku box runs a custom Linux distribution called Roku OS. The first-generation Roku players first came with Roku OS 1.0. After that, Roku has continued to update the software with bug fixes, security updates, features additions, and many new interface revisions. In October 2017, the Roku software version 8.0 wa released.

The stock will continue to be very volatile and this is a high-risk, high-reward case. The report on Wednesday will be important for Roku`s long term growth narrative. The company expects to continue losing money this year aiming to operate near break-even on an operating cash flow basis.

Roku Inc is expected to report earnings on May 09, 2018 after market close. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending March 2018. Analysts are forecasting revenue to climb 27 percent to $127,55 million in the first quarter, up from $100,09 million from a year ago, while reporting a loss of $0,16 per share.

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Disney said to Netflix that they are planning to launch a competing streaming site service next year

Im a big fan of Walt Disney. Thats why I not only look at their films, but also their stocks. Walt Disney is not alone in the film market, and one of their competitors is Netflix. But for how long? Last Fall Disney said they wanted to pull its own films from Netflix.

Disney said they are planning to launch a competing streaming site service next year. It will be a family friendly streaming site and a site for adults. We know that Netflix is producing its own films, but we also know how Disney is doing it. It is a production powerhouse. In other words; a big competitor in the future.

(Tchaikovsky`s music from the ballet “The Nutcracker” is one of my favorites. This fantasy film directed by Lasse Hallstrom is scheduled to be released by Walt Disney Pictures on November 2, 2018)

Walt Disneys market cap is 150,46 billion, while Netflix market cap is 138,10 billion. A big difference, but unfair to compare, because Netflix is a streaming company while Disney is so much more than that.

Walt Disney Company is an entertainment company. The company operates in four business segments, which is Media Networks, Parks and Resorts, Studio Entertainment, and Consumer Products & Interactive Media.

The media networks segments includes cable and broadcast television networks, television production and distribution operations, domestic television stations, and radio networks and stations.

There is no doubt that the real big Champion in the streaming market is Netflix, but they will get a serious competitor in the future. The Fox deal will make Disney even bigger on top of its already great pool of media properties. A majority stake in Hulu will also help.

Disney will take control of Fox`s movie studios, TV studios, FX Network and National Geographic Channel. All this will help Disney to build a new streaming giant.

Disney agreed to buy the bulk of Fox for $52 billion in December of 2017. Included in the package deal was a 30 percent stake in online streaming service, Hulu, of which Disney already owned 30 percent.

Now with a majority stake in the company, Disney has the option to buy out the rest of the Hulu stock from Comcast and Time Warner or engage with all the players involved. There is no doubt that they can be a great production powerhouse.

Disney are jumping right into it with Hulu. On top of that they can start to build their own streaming site for children in addition to ESPN Plus, which is a subscription service for sports fans, that will launch this spring for $4,99 per month.

“I think the way to look at the revenue opportunities, as particularly as it relates to production, is to consider the fact that what we`re buying here is significant production capabilities and, with that, the talent to produce on our behalf,” Iger said to investors earlier this year.

Walt Disney Company is expected to report earning on 8 May 2018 after market close. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending March 2018. Earnings forecast for the quarter is $1,68, and reported earning for the same quarter last year was $1,5. Any earnings surprise?

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The public cloud market is expected to reach $411 Billion by 2020 and one of the fastest growing cloud provider in the world is Alibaba

Alibaba Group Holding Limited has declined since March this year after recent trade war fears. It`s not fair if you look at the numbers. The company boasted a five-year CAGR of over 40 percent, and their revenue is primarily driven by core e-commerce.

Alibaba`s Market cap is $464,72 Billion, and that valuation is good if you look at their potential for growth like cloud computing which is growing fast. They are also expanding in the Indian market with good help from Softbank.

Softbank has already acquired many important startup companies in India, and India will be one of the most important markets for Alibaba in the future. Alibaba and their ally Softbank will therefore build its business on companies that is already operating in the Indian market instead of doing it all from scratch.

The online retail market in India is growing fast and Alibaba can grow in this sector despite the fact that they are late into the market. Alibaba led a funding round of $300 million in online grocer Big Basket at a valuation of $950 million.

But they have competitors. Amazon will invest over $5 Billion in Amazon India, and Valmart wants to buy about 80 percent stake in Flipkart. Valmart is willing to pay about $12 Billion. Alibaba will also earn from Softbank`s investment in rival online grocer Grofers.

Alibaba`s core commerce segment comprises marketplaces operating in retail and wholesale commerce in China, and international commerce. The Cloud computing segment, which comprises Alibaba Cloud offering a complete suite of cloud services, is in top gear.

Cloud computing is good for Alibaba as more and more businesses are shifting their servers and broadband subscriptions to cloud computing technology in order to streamline costs.

The public cloud market is expected to reach $411 Billion by 2020, and Alibaba with its ongoing initiatives is well posed to grab the growth opportunity. I have a good reason to belive that cloud computing will be one of Alibaba`s major growth drivers in the future.

Alibaba has expanded overseas to Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Frankfurt, London, Paris, New York, San Mateo, Dubai, Seoul, Tokyo and Sydney. So far, they have more than 2,3 million customers worldwide.

In the last report, cloud computing segment increased 104 percent to US$553 million, and revenues from its core commerce segment were up 57 percent YoY to US$11,3 Billion.

Alibaba is probably the most shorted stock in the world in recent weeks after trade war fears, but their opportunity for further growth will probably exceed investors expectations. If so, Alibaba`s shares can easily jump to next target; $200.

Alibaba Group Holding Limited is expected to report earnings on May 4 before market open. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending March 2018. Earnings forecast for the quarter is $0,7 which is well below earnings for the same quarter last year of $0,39. Last quarter, Alibaba delivered a negative earnings surprise of 1,21 percent.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Officials said the appropriate path for the FED`s funds rate over the next few years would likely be slightly steeper than they had previously expected

The Interest Rate are increasing while the outlook for the economy are getting stronger and the inflation is expected to follow the rate in the coming months. The FED, meeting for the first time under Chairman Jerome Powell, raised the funds rate to 1,5 – 1,75 percent during its March meeting.

FOMC holds eight regularly scheduled meetings during the year and other meetings as needed. Their next meeting is May 1 – 2, 2018, and GDP, Interest Rate and Inflation is on the table. The economic outlook is improving and the FED officials has recently projected a steeper path of hikes next year and 2020.

The FEDs funds rate was extremely volatile when Ronald Reagan entered the White House in 1981. In the early 80s the rate peaked at 20 percent and plummeted to about 10 percent and then back to nearly 20 percent again. That`s what I call action.

During the period of Ronald Reagan, the rate went from 20 percent and down to 10 percent in 1989, when Ronald Reagan said welcome to the next president; George Bush. He succeeded to push down the rate even more, but it hit a record low of 0,25 percent in 2008. That time is for now over.

The increase in March was the sixth rise since the central bank began a tightening cycle back in December 2015. As the economy has strengthened, the FED has upped the pace of hikes.

After the FOMC meeting in March, officials said the economy looks good and that the inflation is expected to move up. Almost all of the officials agreed that a gradual tightening remains appropriate.

The FED also said that the prospect of retaliatory trade actions by other countries as well as other issues and uncertainties associated with trade policies as downside risks for the economy.

Some people are concerned among their business contracts about the possible ramifications of the recent imposition of tariffs on imported steel and aluminium. They didn`t see the steel and aluminium tariffs, by themselves, to have significant effect on the national economic outlook.

Contracts in the agricultural sector reported feeling particularly vulnerable to retaliation.

The stance of monetary policy will remain accommodative, supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

Some of the participants in the March meeting said that the stronger outlook for economic activity, along with their increased confidence that inflation would return to 2 percent, implied that the appropriate path for the FED`s funds rate over the next few years would likely be slightly steeper than they had previously expected.

It is expected to see the rate unchanged after the meeting on Wednesday, but another hike is imminent at the following one in mid June.

The next FOMC meeting took place on Tuesday this week and will end on Wednesday with any changes to monetary policy announced immediately after the meeting.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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