Tag Archives: Jerome Powell

The Fed kept the interest rate unchanged at 1,75 – 2% while Switzerland have negative interest rate at -0,75

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell announced on Wednesday that it kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged. The statement comes after a two-day meeting of the FOMC, which decides on monetary policy.

Powell said the job market would remain strong and inflation would stay around the 2 percent target for “several years.” This is great for the U.S because it gives the Fed some tools to use if the trouble are coming back. But what about the rest of the world? Are they healthy?

The picture is different in Switzerland. The Swiss National Bank kept its benchmark three-month Libor at -0,75 percent on June 21st, 2018. Interest rate in Switzerland reached an all time low of -0,75 percent in January of 2015, and it`s still at the same low-level. But they are not alone.

Denmark followed Switzerland in 2015 and dropped the interest rate to -0,75 only a month after them. The Danish central bank follows the path set by the ECB and the key rate will be raised or lowered when the ECB changes the refinance rate.

The Danish central bank`s main policy aim to hold the euro`s exchange rate within 2,25 percent either above or below 7,46038 kroner in an effort to keep inflation low and provide stability for exporter. Now the Danish rate is -0,65.

Sweden joined the negative interest club, and the central bank of Sweden held its benchmark interest rate at -0,5 percent on July 3rd, as widely expected, saying monetary policy needs to continue to be expansionary for inflation to remain close to target despite strong economic activity.

Japan is the last country in the world to have negative interest rate. They reached an all time low of -0,1 percent in July this year. The BOJ vowed to keep rate extremely low for extended period of time and opted for flexible bond buying at its July 2018 meeting.

In addition, Japan`s policymakers left its key short-term interest rate unchanged at -0,1 percent and kept its 10-year government bond yield target around 0 percent.

In other words; you are lending your money to governments and you are paying them interest for that, which mean it`s cheaper to put your money under your mattress. But that strategy can be very risky.

The goal is to make people spend money rather than pay a fee to keep it safe. This is intended to incentivize banks to lend money more freely and businesses and individuals to invest. This is how you make growth.

During deflationary periods, people and businesses hoard money instead of spending and investing. The result is a collapse in aggregate demand, which leads to prices falling even further. This again will lead to a slowdown in production and output which means higher unemployment.

Negative interest rates can be considered a last-ditch effort to boost economic growth, which means when all else has proved ineffective and may have failed. 21 countries like Spain, Italy, Greece, France, Finland and Malta to name a few, are holding its interest rate at 0,00. The Euro zone is joining the club.

In 2014, the ECB instituted a negative interest rate that only applied to bank deposits intended to prevent the Euro zone from falling into a deflationary spiral.

The ECB held its benchmark refinancing rate at 0 percent on July 26th and reiterated that the monthly pace of the net asset purchase will be reduced to €15 billion from September to December 2018, and will then end.

The ECB expect the interest rate to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to 2 percent over the medium term.

The risk surrounding the euro area growth outlook can still be assessed as broadly balanced. Uncertainties related to global factors, notably the threat of protectionism, remain prominent.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

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Officials said the appropriate path for the FED`s funds rate over the next few years would likely be slightly steeper than they had previously expected

The Interest Rate are increasing while the outlook for the economy are getting stronger and the inflation is expected to follow the rate in the coming months. The FED, meeting for the first time under Chairman Jerome Powell, raised the funds rate to 1,5 – 1,75 percent during its March meeting.

FOMC holds eight regularly scheduled meetings during the year and other meetings as needed. Their next meeting is May 1 – 2, 2018, and GDP, Interest Rate and Inflation is on the table. The economic outlook is improving and the FED officials has recently projected a steeper path of hikes next year and 2020.

The FEDs funds rate was extremely volatile when Ronald Reagan entered the White House in 1981. In the early 80s the rate peaked at 20 percent and plummeted to about 10 percent and then back to nearly 20 percent again. That`s what I call action.

During the period of Ronald Reagan, the rate went from 20 percent and down to 10 percent in 1989, when Ronald Reagan said welcome to the next president; George Bush. He succeeded to push down the rate even more, but it hit a record low of 0,25 percent in 2008. That time is for now over.

The increase in March was the sixth rise since the central bank began a tightening cycle back in December 2015. As the economy has strengthened, the FED has upped the pace of hikes.

After the FOMC meeting in March, officials said the economy looks good and that the inflation is expected to move up. Almost all of the officials agreed that a gradual tightening remains appropriate.

The FED also said that the prospect of retaliatory trade actions by other countries as well as other issues and uncertainties associated with trade policies as downside risks for the economy.

Some people are concerned among their business contracts about the possible ramifications of the recent imposition of tariffs on imported steel and aluminium. They didn`t see the steel and aluminium tariffs, by themselves, to have significant effect on the national economic outlook.

Contracts in the agricultural sector reported feeling particularly vulnerable to retaliation.

The stance of monetary policy will remain accommodative, supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

Some of the participants in the March meeting said that the stronger outlook for economic activity, along with their increased confidence that inflation would return to 2 percent, implied that the appropriate path for the FED`s funds rate over the next few years would likely be slightly steeper than they had previously expected.

It is expected to see the rate unchanged after the meeting on Wednesday, but another hike is imminent at the following one in mid June.

The next FOMC meeting took place on Tuesday this week and will end on Wednesday with any changes to monetary policy announced immediately after the meeting.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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President Donald Trump is nearing a decision on whom to pick to lead the Federal Reserve

Fed Chair Janet Yellen`s job is coming to an end. She took over the job from Ben Bernanke who started to «print» money. Four years is over and President Donald Trump have a few but strong candidates on his table.

President Donald Trump had a meeting with Standford University economist John Taylor and according to a White House official, Mr Trump is nearing a decision on whom to pick to lead the Federal Reserve.

 

 

John Taylor is one of the candidates and Janet Yellen is the other one. Other candidates are Fed governor Kevin Warsh who is on Trumps shortlist. Current governor Jerome Powell and Trumps economic adviser Gary Cohn is also on the list.

Mr Trump has scheduled a meeting with Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen on Thursday.

Ms Yellen`s four-year term as chairwoman expires on February next year and Mr Trump will meet her to discuss the possibility of nominating her for a second term as central-bank chief. Mr Trump is considering offering Yellen the chance to stay in the job, but will announce his nominee before leaving for a trip to Asia next month on November 3.

John Taylor said he agree with the Fed`s strategy to remove economic stimulus, and the Fed policy rate is now set at 1 percent to 1,25 percent. What the right thing to do about the rate is a matter of debate among economists, also among Taylor and his camp.

John Taylor is a Ph.D economist with a strong expertise in monetary policy and institutional leadership which is key attributes for the Fed Chair, and this is probably why Taylor is one of the biggest favorite for Mr Trump.

Donald Trump is planning to cut the taxes and monetary policy is therefore critical and important.

Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke started the QE program after the financial crisis in 2008, and Fed governor Warsh was against further monetary stimulus in 2010 with unemployment above 9 percent and inflation decelerating.

Ben Bernanke is an expert on the stock market crash in 1929, and called Warch`s political and markets savvy «invaluable,» according to Bloomberg.

Central banks are often independent from other policy makers. This is the case with the Federal Reserve and Congress, reflecting the separation of monetary policy from fiscal policy and the latter refers to taxes and government borrowing and spending.

The Federal Reserve has what is commonly referred to as a «dual mandate»:

  • to achieve maximum employment (around 5 percent unemployment), and
  • stable prices (2-3 percent inflation).

In addition, it aims to keep long-term interest rates relatively low, and since 2009 has served as a bank regulator. Its core role is to be the lender of last resort, providing banks with liquidity in order to prevent the bank failure and panics.

The central bank of the United States is the Federal Reserve System, which Congress established with the 1913 Federal Reserve Act.

Central banks are inherently non-market-based or even anticompetitive institutions. Many central banks, including the Fed, are not government agencies, and so are often touted as being politically independent.

Monetary policy consists of the actions of a central bank, currency board or other regulatory committee that determine the size and rate of growth of the money supply, which in turn affects interest rates.

There are two types of monetary policy; expansionary and contractionary.

Expansionary monetary policy increases the money supply in order to lower unemployment, boost private-sector borrowing and consumer spending, and stimulate economic growth.

Contractionary monetary policy slows the rate of growth in the money supply or outright decreases the money supply in order to control inflation, while sometimes necessary, contractionary monetary policy can slow economic growth, increase unemployment and depress borrowing and spending by consumers and businesses.

An example would be the Fedral Reserves intervention in the early 1980s: in order to curb inflation of nearly 15 percent , the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate to 20 percent.

This hike resulted in a recession, but did keep spiraling inflation in check.

Mr Trump is planning to cut taxes and build more and better highways, and this is fiscal policy, which is trying to control inflation, stabilize business cycles and to improve unemployment rate. Sooner or later, we all know that the recession will come.

The tools will then be fiscal policy and the government will start to lower tax rates to try to fuel economic growth. If people are paying less in taxes, they have more money to spend or invest, and increased consumer spending or investment could improve economic growth.

On the other side; too much spending could increase inflation.

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

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