Author Archives: Ket Garden

The number of people out of work in mainland France surged to 4,3 million in April of 2020

4,316,17 million people in mainland France is out of work in April this year, and that is the biggest increase in registered unemployment and the highest level since series began in January of 1996 amid the coronavirus epidemic.

Youth unemployment rate in France increased to 20,4 percent in March. 2,5 million aged 25 to 49 is out of work. 1,1 million over aged 50 or more is unemployed and that among young people went up by nearly 150 percent.

15 years ago, protesters in France took to the streets but they were a lot more different then today. Back then, most of them were people from the black community. Now, it is different. The protesters are not only black but white and they are in all ages.

The growth in France is very slow. GDP in France plummeted 5,4 percent in the first quarter of 2020, which means they have one foot in the recession area. A bad number in Q2 means they are officially in a recession.

France is the seventh largest economy in the world and the second largest in the Euro-Area. France has a large and diversified industrial and agricultural base which includes aircraft, military equipment, perfunes, pharmaceuticals, wine, beef and wheat production.

France is also the most visited country in the world with at least 82 million foreign tourists visiting France every year. 79 percent of their total GDP comes from service which is their biggest sector of the economy.

France is the second largest exporter of agricultural products in the world, and agriculture contributes 2 percent to their.GDP.

60 percent of people`s hard earned money went to the state of France 20 years ago, but now the slashed the rate to «only» 45 percent.

The corporate tax rate in France stands at 33,3 percent. Down from 50 percent in the early 80`s.

Something happened when Francois Mitterrand entered the scene. He was a French statesman who served as President of France from 1981 to 1995, the longest time in office in the history of France. As First Secretary of the Socialist Party, he was the first left-wing politician to assume the presidency under the fifth Republic.

Reflecting family influences, Mitterand started political life on the Catholic nationalist right.

He joined the Resistance and moved to the left, and held ministerial office several times under the Fourth Republic. Mitterand opposed de Gaulle`s establichment of the Fifth Republic.

Mitterand invited the Communist Party into his first government, which was a controversial decision at the time. In the event, the Communists were boxed in as junior partners and, rather than taking advantage, saw their support erode.

They left the cabinet in 1984. Early in his first term, Metterand followed a radical left-wing economic agenda, including nationalisation of key firms, but after two years, with the economy in crisis, he reversed course.

He pushed a socially liberal agenda with erforms such as the abolition of the death penalty, the 38-hour week, and the end of a government monopoly in radio and television broadcasting. His foreign and defense policies built on those of his Gaullist predecessors.

His partnership with German Chancellor Helmut Kohl advanced European integration via Maastricht Treaty, but he reluctantly accepted German reunification.

Beyond making the French left electable, Mitterand presided over the rise of the Socialist Party to dominance of the left, and the decline of the once-mighty Communist Party (as a share of the popular vote in the first presidential round, the Communists shrank from a peak of 21,27% in 1969 to 8,66% in 1995). Something happened.

It was a shift in May 1968.

In the beginning of May 1968, a period of civil unrest occurred throughout France, lasting some seven weeks and punctuated by demonstrations, general strikes, and the occupation of universities and factories.

At the height of events, which have since become known as May 68, the economy of France came to a halt.

The protests reached such a point that political leaders feared civil war or revolution. The national governement briefly ceased to function after President Charles de Gaulle secretly fled France to Germany at one point.

The protests spurred movements worldwide, with songs, imaginative graffiti, posters, and slogans. Some of the slogans was this; Je suis Marxiste (I`m a Marxist), Marx, Mao, Marcuse (also know as 3M), CRS = SS (CRS is the general reserve of the French police).

The unrest began with a series of student occupation protests against capitalism, consumerism, American imperialism and traditional institutions. Heavy police repression of the protesters led France`s trade union confederations to call for sympathy strikes, which spread far more quickly than expected to involve 11 million workers, more than 22% of the total population of France at the time.

The movement was characterized by spontaneous and decentralized wildcat disposition; this created a contrast and at times even conflict internally amongest the trade unions and the parties of the left. It was the largest general strike ever attempted in France, and the first nationwide general strike.

The student occupations and general strikes initiated across France were met with forceful confrontation by university administrators and police. The de Gaulle administration`s attempts to quell those strikes by police action only inflamed the situation further, leading to street battles with the police in the Latin Quarter, Paris.

However, by late May, the flow of eents changed.

The genelle accords concluded on 27 May, between the government, trade unions and employers, won significant wage gains for workers. A counter-demonstration organised by the Gaullist party on 29 May in central Paris gave De Gaulle the confidence to dissolve the National Assembly and call for parliamentary elections for 23 June 1968.

Violence evaporated almost as quickly as it arose. Workers went backk to their jobs, and when the elections were held in June, the Gaullists emerged stronger than before.

The events of May 1968 continue to influence French society. The period is considered a cultural, social and moral turning point in the history of the country. It is considered to be a social revolution, not a political one.

The French Communists and French Socialists formed an electoral alliance. Communists had long supported Socialist candidates in elections, but in the «February Declaration» the two parties agreed to attempt to form a joint government to replace President Charles de Gaulle and his Gaullist Party.

Personal Income Tax is one of the highest in France. About half of the hard working money is going straight to the state. On top of that, people in France must pay lots of money every single day if they drive a car on the road. They have toll roads in France.

If you drive from Boreaux to Paris, it costs 55,60 euros for Classes A and 85,60 euros for Classes B. The cost from Marseille to Paris will cost you 59,50 euros for Classes A and 93,70 euros for Classes B. The yellow vest proteters took control of the toll roads a year ago. The same protesters were also called anti-fuel protesters.

4,3 million people is out of work in France in April 2020. Personal Income Tax is 45% and it cost 93,70 euros (103,79 US Dollars) for Classes B to take a trip from Marseille to Paris. In addition; Many French households pay more in electicity than consumers elsewhere in Europe.

The growth in France is declining and a recession is imminent. So are a deep depression. France government debt to GDP is 98,1%. Cost of food in France increased 3,70% in April 2020 and that`s the highest food inflation rate since March 2012. The cost of living in France is rising.

In France, the welfare system make up for about 500 billion euros annually, or more than 30% of GDP. Unemployment benefits in France is minimum 28,86 euros per day, and maximum 245,04 euros per day.

France`s social programs is health care which is a system developed in 1945 and slowly became the EU`s most complicated. So is the Pension system, Family insurance system, the housing system, the education system and the unemployment insurance.

The recession is on Macron`s table. A business brain like Trump will cut the taxes, but people on the other side believe higher taxes and more expensive toll roads means more money to the state.

To contact the author of this story: Ket Garden at post@shinybull.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

Leave a comment

Filed under Politics, Uncategorized

A terrible U.S unemployment rate jumped to 14,7% in April of 2020 which is the highest in the U.S history

Only two months ago, the U.S unemployment rate was at a 50-year low of 3,5 percent and the U.S economy was great with a growth much higher than the rest of the world. But now, everything have changed. It`s all turned upside down.

The U.S unemployment rate jumped to 14,7 percent in April 2020 and that is the highest unemployment rate in the U.S history. This is terrible. This is ugly and the worst we have seen as the Coronavirus pushed millions out of work.

The number of unemployed persons rose by 15,9 million to 23,1 million in April. The labor force participation rate decreased by 2,5 percentage points over the month to 60,2 percent which is the lowest rate since January 1973.

The U.S economy is likely to shed a record 22 million jobs in April, which would be the biggest drop in payrolls since the Great depression!

The coronavirus pandemic ended an historic 113 straight months of employment growth. It was the first decline in payrolls since September of 2010 but the figures were not as bad as those seen in 2008 as the number excluded the last two weeks of March when unemployment claims surged by nearly 10 million. About two-thirds of job loses occured in leisure and hospitality, mainly in food services and drinking places.

It took over ten years to push down the unemployment rate from about 10 to just 3,5 percent, but it took only weeks to push it back to a record 14,7 percent.

Leave a comment

Filed under Politics

The Euro area “is facing an economic contraction of a magnitude and speed that are unprecedented in peacetime”

Europe is in trouble. The growth is plummeting. The Euro area «is facing an economic contraction of a magnitude and speed that are unprecedented in peacetime», the ECB president Christine Lagarde said on a news conference in Frankfurt, Germany earlier today.

The Eurozone economy shrank by 3,8 percent on quarter in Q1, and that was the steepest contraction since comparable records began in 1995 as a coronavirus lockdown from mid-March forced businesses to close and consumers to stay at home.

And this is just the beginning. Ms Lagarde suggested euro area GDP could fall by between 5 and 12 percent this year. I repeat: 12 percent!

Not only the euro area came out with the GDP news today. France came out with their bad news today. The French economy shrank 5,8 percent on quarter in the three months to March 2020. And you know what; they are entering a technical recession. I repeat; recession!

This is ugly. This is the steepest decline in GDP on record, as the Covid-19 outbreaks stopped the economy. Household consuption plummeted -6,1 percent, led by falls in spending on both goods and service, fixed investment; -11,8 percent. Foreign demand contributed negatively as both exports and imports fell.

Italy is also in a technical recession. Italy`s GDP shrank 4,7 percent on quarter in the three months to March of 2020. It was the steepest contraction since comparable records began in 1995, as the country was severely hurt by the coronavirus pandemic during March.

The domestic and external demand contributed negatively to the GDP in Italy.

Spain is in the same club. Their economy shrank 5,2 percent on quarter in the first three months of 2020. That is the steepest contraction since the series began in 1995, as the Covid-19 pandemic forced the government to impose lockdown measures in mid-March.

Years of economic growth is wiped out at a pace never seen before. Not only in Europe but also in the United States. The unemployment rate go straight up and the personal spending go straight down.

Personal spending in the US dropped 7,5 percent month-over-month in March 2020, and that was the largest decline in personal spending on record, as the coronavirus crisis hit households’ demand.

Within services, the leading contributor to the decrease was spending on health care.

What`s interesting to see is that France has the highest personal income tax rate in Europe, which is 45 percent. At the same time they have a very high unemployment rate; 8,1 percent. Not only that; their Dept to GDP is 98,10 percent.

Unemployment rate in Italy is 8,4. Personal income tax rate is 43 percent. Both very similar to France, but Italy`s Debt to GDP is 134,8 percent.

Government Debt to GDP in Spain is 95,5 percent with an unemployment rate of 14,41 percent. Personal income tax rate is similar to France and Italy; 45 percent.

France, Italy and Spain has also a lot of problems with the coronavirus. They are all on top of the debt burden list, but they are also on top when it comes to covid-19.

It seems like it is a correlation between debt, high unemployment rate, personal tax income and coronavirus deaths. In comparison; the US debt to GDP is 107 percent as of December 2019. Experts say it will be worse.

To contact the author of this story: Ket Garden at post@shinybull.com

Leave a comment

Filed under Politics

The US unemployment go straight up while the pending home sales go straight down

China`s growth plummeted -6,8 YoY in Q1. The growth in the U.S is still on the right side, coming in at 0,3 percent YoY in Q1. But if you look at the quarter, the growth in China is down -9,8 percent, while the U.S growth is down -4,8 percent.

The annulized 4,8 percent drop in Q1 of 2020 markes the end of the longest period of expansion in America`s history. The drop is the steepest pace of contraction in GDP since the last quarter of 2008 (financial crisis).

The Covid-19 pandemic forced several states to impose lockdown measures in mid-March and that pushed millions of people out of work. The unemployment rate go straight up while the pending home sales go straight down.

Contracts to buy previously owned homes in the US dropped 16,3 percent YoY earlier in March this year, and that is the biggest annual decline since April 2011, amid the Covid-19 crisis. On a monthly basis, pending home sales went down 20,8 percent, which is the largest drop since May 2010.

Unfortunately, it seems like this is just the beginning.

The next quarter can be very ugly, while the unemployment rate can go straight up to Great Depression levels. The growth in the US can plunge more than 30 percent. If that is happening, what do you thing will happen to the pending home sales?

The numbers are expected to get even worse in April as the government surveyed businesses and housholds for the report in mid-March, before majority of people was under some form of a lockdown.

Trump`s economic adviser Kevin Hassett said unemployment in the US can soar to 17 percent. In March the unemployment rate was 4,4 percent in the US.

During the financial crisis, the US lost about 9 million jobs, but now the US is losing that many jobs about every 10 days, Hassett told ABC on Sunday.

This is sad, because all the jobs created since the Great Recession (2008) have been wiped out. So far, we are talking about 26 million and it can be worse. Hassett told ABC the unemployment will surge to levels not seen since the Grat Depression (1929).

During the Great Depression, about 15 million jobs were lost.

So, we know what`s coming. People without job and money will not buy a house.

Pending home contracts generally are seen as a forward-looking indicator of the health of the housing market because they become sales one to two months later. This summer holiday will be very special.

To contact the author of this story: Ket Garden at post@shinybull.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

Leave a comment

Filed under Politics, Uncategorized

The Chinese economy shrank 6,8 percent YoY in the first quarter of 2020 which is the first GDP contraction since records began in 1992

We are all in it toghether and the times we are living in right now is historic. Just take a look at China and the Chinese economy that shrank 6,8 percent YoY in the first quarter of 2020. What a drop! This is the first GDP contraction since records began in 1992. Wow.

The reason for the drop is well known; COVID-19. No doubt. Xi and the CCP took action after the virus outbreak and enforced a two-month-long shutdown of all non-essential business activity. Nor did they celebrate a new year, and a shutdown like this is of course very expensive.

Car production in China recorded the sharpest decline which dropped -44 percent. That is a big shock. Last year, approximately 21,36 million passenger cars and 4,36 million commercial vehicles had been produced in China.

The growth for passenger cars has jumped from 7 million in 2008 (financial crisis) to 25 million in 2017. In 2018, every fourth passenger vehicle in the world had been produced in China, and China is ranked first among countries with the largest production of passenger cars in 2018.

As you can see, the growth of the production and sale of vehicles in China have increased rapidly. Its interesting to see that almost all of the leading bestselling cars in China are the product of joint ventres with foreign manufacturers.

Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation (SAIC) has an ongoing cooperation with General Motors (GM). SAIC-GM manufactures and sells Chevrolet, Buick and Cadillac brand automobiles in Mainland China. When the sales drop in China, so it does in the U.S.

Export from China also dropped 6,6 percent YoY to $185 billion in March 2020, compared with marked estimates of a 14 percent fall and after a 17 percent plunge in January-February combined amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

Among the the biggest trade partners, exports fell to the U.S by -20,8 percent. Considering the first quarter of 2020, exports declined 13,3 percent from a year earlier.

However, China`s long term growth potential will not be affected by the short term fallout of the coronavirus pandemic, as the country`s economic fundamentals remain unchanged, the authorities said.

To contact the author of this story: Ket Garden at post@shinybull.com

Leave a comment

Filed under Politics, Stock market