Author Archives: Ket Garden

Is this the end of the bull market?

The bull market is 11 years old on Monday, and it is the longest stretch of non stop gains ever. The sell off over the past 12 trading days means that the US stocks are on the edge of a bear market. Therefore; Tuesday will be a test.

If the market goes below 20%, the bull market will officially be over, and we are entering a bear market. After the Great Recession, the bull market started in March 2009. The S&P 500 has gone straight up since then.

The S&P 500 is up 339% and it has been a slow recovery. It`s similar to the recovery from the Great Depression in June 1932 were the S&P 500 skyrocketed 325%. At that time, it was the deepest recession in modern American history.

President Franklin Roosevelt supported the bull market with massive government spending. Later on, Roosevelt pulled back from the program and the Fed tightened its reserve ratios for banks. The economy didn`t recover as much as it should, and tighter monetary and fiscal policy led to a double-dip recession.

This is why the Fed is important now. So are the Trump administration. The Fed cut the rates 50 points only days ago and they will probably come up with more news about the market even this week.

The Fed offers Repo Market $50 Billion more to ease rate pressure. New York Fed Repo Totals $112,93 Billion and Fed`s move to tap liquidity operations will buy time on more rate cuts.

What they do now is great leadership on the world stage. They can`t stop the virus but they can make liquidity.

To contact the author of this story: Ket Garden at post@shinybull.com

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OPEC leaders agree to cut oil production

The Oilprice has declined along with the stock market but Opec leaders agreed to cut production of 1,5 bpd with Russia support as Coronavirus hits demand. At the same time we have 2 and 10 year treasury yield below 1 percent. Investors are not shure how to react to the Coronavirus. A virus that usually has mild or no symptoms at all, according to experts.

Opec members will cut 1,0 mil bpd and its non-Opec allies (led by Russia) will cut by 0,5 mil bpd instead. This is interesting as we look towards OPEC talks on Friday. OPEC will hold a press conference on Friday after the OPEC meeting.

To contact the author of this story: Ket Garden at post@shinybull.com

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Target Inc has been one of the better performers in the retail sector and jumped nearly 6% on Monday

Last trading week was crazy, but the start of this week was even more crazy. Everybody said don`t buy the dip, and now you can clearly see that everybody is doing the opposite. They are buying the dip. But take a look at one of the top stocks I am looking at in times like this.

Target Inc jumped nearly 6% on Monday, while WalMart jumped nearly 8%. Target Inc warned investors that its holiday season was weaker than the company was expecting. Wall Street expects Target Inc to earn $1,66 per share on revenue of $23,47 billion. Last year earnings came to $1,53 per share on revenue of $22, 98 billion.

The consumer is strong and remain the driving force of the U.S economy. Just as important, big-box retail is not dead, as evidence by the strong earnings results and forecasts just delivered from Walmart.

Can Target Inc keep up the pace? Target Inc has been one of the better performers in the retail sector, with its shares up 42% over the past year, thanks to the company`s e-commerce initiatives. But with concers about the coronavirus, Target Inc will need strong top-and bottom-line results, solid growth and upside guidance to keep Wall Street excited about its direction.

Watch out for Target Inc before the open on Tuesday March 3.

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Trump made a $3 billion defence deal with Modi and India

President Trump is very popular in the World`s largest democracy India. Yesterday, he visited India and made a speech at the Motera cricket stadium in Ahmedabad city in Gujarat. More than 100,000 came to see Trump and hear him say that the U.S made a deal with India.

The U.S firm Exxon Mobil and Indian Oil signed a deal to help import more Liquefied Natural Gas. Trump said he made a defence deal with India. Not a trade deal, and the deal was a $3 billion military deal. A defence deal.

PM Modi`s nationalist government made tariffs of up to 120% two years ago. Trump and Modi didn`t sign a trade deal, but Modi said that negotiations would continue.

Mr Trump ended the day in the iconic Taj Mahal.

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Maria Bartiromo warns against knee-jerk reactions to market selloff

This week started with a strong reaction on the stock market, but Maria Bartiromo warns against knee-jerk reactions to market selloff. Knee-jerk is an immediate unthinking emotional reaction produced by an event or statement to which the reacting person is highly sensitive; it`s origin is thus: from the tendency of the knee to jerk involuntarily when hit sharply, properly called the patellar reflex.

Apple can plunge because of the virus disaster in China, but not all the American blue chips are like Apple. Check your portfolio and find out what exposure your companies have. You don`t have to sell all your stock today, Maria said live on Fox on Monday.

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