Tag Archives: Negative interest rate

The ECB lowered the interest rate to -0,5% and Trump wants to do the same

What a day. A very important day for Europe and the rest of the world. The ECB left its main refinancing operations rate unchanged and lowered the deposit interest rate by 10bps to -0,5 percent. Not only that; policymakers also approved a new round of bond purchases at a monthly pace of €20 billion as from November 1st.

They do this because we have Brexit and trade war with China and the plan is to boost growth. At the same time, the ECB lowered its GDP forecasts to 1,1 percent this year. Inflation expectations were also slashed to 1,2 percent in 2019.

President Trump attacked the FED, calling Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other members «boneheads» for not driving the U.S interest rates down to zero, or less. Trump explained that he wanted negatie rates in order to refinance the outstanding $22 trillion in government debt and lengthen the term.

Right now, there is a $16 trillion in negative yielding debt around the globe. What a number! Historically, negative rates have been used as an anti-recession tool to boost growth when the economy is weak.

But negative interest rate have now become much more common. Just take a look at the value of the negative-yielding debt over the world. It has shot up to $16 trillion, according to BofA.

If you have your money in your bank, it means you have to pay your bank to lend them your money. Crazy right? Normally, you will get paid from the bank if you have your money there, but with negaive interest rate, it is turned up side down.

Similarly, with government-issued debt, global investors also pay money to hold a bond with negative yields because the premium that they initially paid for it exceeds the total interest they receive over the life of the bond.

Switzerland have negative interest rate at -0,75 percent. Denmark; -0,65 percent. Sweden; -0,25 percent and Japan; -0,10 percent.

Other countries in Europe are near negative interest rate. All these countries have zero interest rate; Spain, Slovakia, Slovenia, Portugal, Netherlands, Malta, Luxemburg, Latvia, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Germany, France, Finland, Euro Area, Estonia, Cyprus, Bulgaria, Belgium and Austria.

In comparison; the U.K have 0,75 percent interest rate and the U.S have 2,25 percent. The U.S lowered the rate for the first time in July for the first time since the financial crisis, as inflation remains subdued amid hightened concerns about the economic outlook and ongoing trade tensions with China.

The U.S economy is good, but the global economy is slowing, notably in Germany and China. There are also growing possibility of a hard Brexit, rising tension in Hong Kong, and dissolution of the Italian government. Fed Chair Jerome Powell have a great challenge.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

Leave a comment

Filed under Politics

The Fed kept the interest rate unchanged at 1,75 – 2% while Switzerland have negative interest rate at -0,75

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell announced on Wednesday that it kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged. The statement comes after a two-day meeting of the FOMC, which decides on monetary policy.

Powell said the job market would remain strong and inflation would stay around the 2 percent target for “several years.” This is great for the U.S because it gives the Fed some tools to use if the trouble are coming back. But what about the rest of the world? Are they healthy?

The picture is different in Switzerland. The Swiss National Bank kept its benchmark three-month Libor at -0,75 percent on June 21st, 2018. Interest rate in Switzerland reached an all time low of -0,75 percent in January of 2015, and it`s still at the same low-level. But they are not alone.

Denmark followed Switzerland in 2015 and dropped the interest rate to -0,75 only a month after them. The Danish central bank follows the path set by the ECB and the key rate will be raised or lowered when the ECB changes the refinance rate.

The Danish central bank`s main policy aim to hold the euro`s exchange rate within 2,25 percent either above or below 7,46038 kroner in an effort to keep inflation low and provide stability for exporter. Now the Danish rate is -0,65.

Sweden joined the negative interest club, and the central bank of Sweden held its benchmark interest rate at -0,5 percent on July 3rd, as widely expected, saying monetary policy needs to continue to be expansionary for inflation to remain close to target despite strong economic activity.

Japan is the last country in the world to have negative interest rate. They reached an all time low of -0,1 percent in July this year. The BOJ vowed to keep rate extremely low for extended period of time and opted for flexible bond buying at its July 2018 meeting.

In addition, Japan`s policymakers left its key short-term interest rate unchanged at -0,1 percent and kept its 10-year government bond yield target around 0 percent.

In other words; you are lending your money to governments and you are paying them interest for that, which mean it`s cheaper to put your money under your mattress. But that strategy can be very risky.

The goal is to make people spend money rather than pay a fee to keep it safe. This is intended to incentivize banks to lend money more freely and businesses and individuals to invest. This is how you make growth.

During deflationary periods, people and businesses hoard money instead of spending and investing. The result is a collapse in aggregate demand, which leads to prices falling even further. This again will lead to a slowdown in production and output which means higher unemployment.

Negative interest rates can be considered a last-ditch effort to boost economic growth, which means when all else has proved ineffective and may have failed. 21 countries like Spain, Italy, Greece, France, Finland and Malta to name a few, are holding its interest rate at 0,00. The Euro zone is joining the club.

In 2014, the ECB instituted a negative interest rate that only applied to bank deposits intended to prevent the Euro zone from falling into a deflationary spiral.

The ECB held its benchmark refinancing rate at 0 percent on July 26th and reiterated that the monthly pace of the net asset purchase will be reduced to €15 billion from September to December 2018, and will then end.

The ECB expect the interest rate to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to 2 percent over the medium term.

The risk surrounding the euro area growth outlook can still be assessed as broadly balanced. Uncertainties related to global factors, notably the threat of protectionism, remain prominent.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

Leave a comment

Filed under Politics