Category Archives: Stocks

The worst Christmas Eve ever followed by the biggest one-day point gain on record

Christmas eve 2018 was the worst ever, and I`m talking about the stock market. Stocks was hit hard and saw the worst Christmas Eve declines ever and MSM blamed on Trump and his attack on the FED.

The bull was fighting back on the boxing day and Nasdaq had its best day since 20019. Not only that; The Dow saw its biggest one-day point gain on record. It was a massive jump for many of the tech stocks which means great days for day traders.

Nasdaq jumped nearly 6 percent were Amazon skyrocketed about 10 percent. Facebook and Netflix with a whopping 8 percent, and Apple up more than 7 percent. Alphabet class A was also up nearly 7 percent. What a day. What a Santa Rally.

Microsoft is down 15 percent from the top but is still 15 percent up YTD. Tuesday, President Trump said that this can be a good time to buy stocks. A closer look at Apple tells us that the tech Giant is near 200 MA and can be a great buying point. So can be said about Alphabet. Two stocks that day traders jumped into earlier today.

The volatility is up over 200 percent this year and it seems like this will continue. Some people are bullish while some people are bearish, and that`s how it is right now. A real fight between the bear and the bull. Awesome.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

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The U.S Black Friday is on track for “blowout” but the Retailer ETF is declining

The biggest shopping day of the year has been the black friday, but that belong to the past. This has changed in the past few years and its a reason for that. Its no longer a black friday single day, but a week-long affair.

Retailers start their Black Friday Sales as early as Thanksgiving Day, Wednesday, and as early as Monday. This is why it is difficult to measure the sale related to only one day; Black Friday. So, if you look at it this way, the combined sales of Thanksgiving Eve, Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday should be included in Black Friday numbers because they are related to each other.

Amazon is still on top of the most popular stores for Black Friday. While Amazon continue to rule the online world, WalMart remains undisputed king of the Black Friday. Next on the list is Target, BestBuy, Macys and Kohls to name a few.

What people are looking for is Apples iPhones, Macs, iPads and other devices, but Apple is not expected to give away any great deals. Gift cards up to $300 will therefore be given by AT&T, T-Mobile, Verizon and Sprint.

Its also expected to see WalMart, BestBuy, Target and Amazon to offer the cheapest TVs, Laptops and Video Games. Google is expected to respond with deals on Nest, Nest Camera, Nest Doorbell and Google assistant.

The National Retail Federation predicts 164 million consumers will shop Thanksgiving weekend, and while 21% will shop Thanksgiving Day, fully 71% will shop Black Friday itself. Analysts are now looking at the five-day period from Thanksgiving Day to Cyber Monday to get a sense of holiday spending, which is now being called «Thanksgiving Weekend.»

The number of people going to the stores Thanksgiving Day has declined since its peak in 2014. The sales are moving online and Thanksgiving Day last year jumped 18,3 percent YoY in online sales. Online shopping on Black Friday last year jumped 16,9 percent YoY.

A quick look at XRT Retail ETF tells us a strange story which is the opposite of last year. The value is declining and it seems to have peaked in October this year. I will continue to follow the retailers and their business.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Snap Inc was a bubble but is now down to a normal level again

Snapchat was a big bubble when it went public in March last year. It went straight up to about $27, but the story has so far been a disaster. The stock has plummeted. It closed at $6,59 after the bell on Wednesday, down -3,37 percent.

Snap is losing money, and they still have negative user growth. Two things investors don`t like at all. The company will report earnings on Thursday 25, and the reported earnings for the same quarter last year was $-0,32.

If we compare Snap with Facebook and Twitter, the company is now down to earth again. But when it comes to popularity, Instagram is more popular among teenagers than Snapchat. A survey found that 85 percent of teens use Instagram at least once a month. 84 percent use Snapchat.

The company have 188 million Daily users and most of them is kids. Snaps CEO Evan Spiegel admitted the company rushed the redesign, and they didnt spend enough time to test the new platform. It all ended up with angry users.

Snaps market capitalization also fell by about $12 billion after a bad ad campaign with Rihanna. She used Facebooks Instagram to complain about the ad with Snap.

Snap need to report a growth in DAU`s to lift the stock again. A decline in their DAU can make the trend to continue. What we know so far is that this stock is very volatile and you can see how the stock jumped in February and June this year.

Snap Inc is expected to report earnings on Thursday 25, 2018, after market close. The report will for the fiscal Quarter ending September 2018. Earnings forecast for the quarter is $-0,27. Better than last years earnings at $-0,32.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Deutsche Bank are struggling and the stock has plummeted since the financial crisis

Deutsche Bank reached a top right before the financial crisis in 2007. The stock peaked at $122, but since then it has plummeted. Some people think that this is the end of the bank and some think that the bank will come back. The stock closed at $10,70 on Tuesday.

The bank has been struggling for years but they are not alone. They have a lot of challenges inside its own bank, but European monetary policy and other political risk are also something investors should have on their watch list. Deutsche Bank will report earnings on Wednesday.

Deutsche Bank said in a report that it intends to reduce personnel by at least 7 000 by the end of 2019. It`s a big challenge to reduce personnel cost for German corporations, because the labor laws are very strict.

European banks (EUFN) has suffered so far in 2018. UKs RBS and Barclay's is down. So are Switzerlands UBS, Spains Santander and Netherlands ING, but Germany`s Deutsche Bank is one of the worst.

The Fed continues to tighten but the ECB is till «printing» money. We know the story of some of the U.S banks. They have gone straight up, but the stocks in Europe have under-performed despite the fact that the ECB continued to blow up the balance sheet.

The ECB balance sheet has gone straight up in three years while the Euro stoxx has slowly declined. So is it for the P/E ratio of the MSCI Europe Index (IEUR) which is down about 50 percent.

Two former Deutsche Bank AG traders were found guilty by a New York jury on Wednesday last week of engaging in a scheme to manipulate the Libor benchmark interest rate between 2005 and 2011.

Libor (the London interbank offered rate) underpins trillions of dollars of financial products and is based on what banks say they believe they would pay if they borrowed from other banks. A case like this didn`t help the banks reputation.

Deutsche Bank has long been struggling to turn a profit under CEO John Cryan`s tenure, but earlier this year, Christian Sewing replaced Cryan and became new CEO of the bank. Deutsche Bank is working hard to strengthen its brand in its home market.

Sewing is known for being a cost-cutter. So far, he has cut about 1,700 jobs and eliminated daily office fruit bowls. He is also planning to shrink the New York office by 30 percent and move away from Wall Street.

The bank`s revenue is down 21 percent in the last two years. It seems it will drop again this year and that will be to its lowest level in a decade. They are also losing market share.

A few years ago, people were waiting for their turn to pay bills in the bank. And you know what, they paid for it. Of course. An employee did it for the customers. They paid for the service. But this has changed.

Now, people have internet and they can log in to their own bank account and do all the job alone. But who is paying for it now? The customers. The one that is doing the job. Wow. What kind of service is that? You do the job and you pay for it. That`s business. But it will change. This way of thinking belongs to the old school.

Deutsche Bank AG is expected to report earnings on Wednesday 24 October 2018 before market open. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending September 2018. The reported Earnings for the same quarter last year was $0,35.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Investors are greedy and takes profit in the growth stock American Eagle Outfitters

I will continue to follow-up with an article about the retail market. In my recent articles I have had a focus on retailer stocks like Alibaba, Kohl`s and J C Penny. Some of them are plummeting, but others are skyrocketing.

Take a look at American Eagle Outfitters (AEO). The stock has gone from $10 to nearly $30 in just 12 months, but now, like other successful retailers, it seems like the bulls would take a break for a while. The stock hit a 10-year high of $29,88 last week.

AEO is set to report earnings before the open on Wednesday, August 29, and analysts are beginning to be skeptical to this equity right now.

Wedbush just lowered its AEO rating to «neutral» from «outperform,» saying it`s moving to the sidelines with the stock near its $29 price target. The brokerage firm suggested that L Brands recent struggles could give AEO a chance to gain market share, which may mean more promotional activity in the near term.

But bearish sentiment is building elsewhere. The unemployment rate is low and the wages is increasing a little bit. But  the new wave of consumer spending isn`t enough to justify a $30 share price for AEO at the moment.

Wall Street analysts are expecting sales to increase 10,12 percent compared to the prior year quarter. AEO is also expected to report a $930 million jump. Expected profit is $1,52 per share compared to profit of $1,16 per share last year.

A full-year revenue last year came in at $3,80 billion, while analysts estimate a full-year revenue to be $3,97 billion this time on average.

President Donald Trump made a new trade deal with Mexico today. That deal will be good for AEO that opened the first store in Mexico City at Fashion Mall Perisur on February 20, 2013 and at Centro Santa Fe on June.

Not only that. President Donald Trump slashed the tax which is helping AEO a lot. So does a stronger dollar. Just look at the numbers. Diluted EPS is up 57,14 percent. Net profit margin; +46,53 percent. Net income; +58,22 percent, and revenue +8,02 percent YoY. Not bad for a company with a $5 billion market cap.

The stock declined -$4,57 percent on Monday, and you can clearly see that investors are taking profit from this growth stock. By 2021, AEO`s earnings can reach $285 million, from current levels of $204 million. An annual growth rate of about 8 percent.

A share price above $30 would be overvalued, and the current share price of AEO is above its future cash flow value of $22,77.

American Eagle Outfitters Inc is expected to report earnings on August 29, 2018 before market open. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending July 2018. The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0,31 versus $0,19 for the same quarter last year.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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