Category Archives: Stock market

This is the best start for the S&P 500 in nearly 20 years

What a great start of the year 2018. The best weekly gain in more than a year and the bull market continue to surprise many investors. Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped over 25,000 and nearly all of the 100 companies in the Nasdaq rose.

It is also the best start for the S&P 500 since 1999. Analysts forecasts looks pretty good and economic fundamentals are strong enough to lift the stocks higher. President Trump`s tax cut will also be good for the stock market.

It is difficult to find any reasons for a backdrop in the market. A rate hike or two wont stop investors to continue the party. What they really like is Mr Trump`s lower corporate taxes and that will not only help the U.S but also the global economic growth.

U.S stocks are looking good but European stock look even better. A great rally in European stocks so far is based on growth data for the Euro Zone. Services PMI data showed the Euro area was near its best growth in 7 years.

It has been a boost for STOXX 600 and we can thank European banks like Bank Santander and BNP Paribas for that. The outlook for European equities looks good and it is estimated a close to 10% earnings growth in 2018.

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Tax revenues increased from $94 billion in 1961 to $153 billion in 1968 with lower taxes

The Gross Domestic Product in the United States expanded 2,30 percent in the third quarter of 2017 over the same quarter of the previous year, and President Donald Trump is not satisfied with that. His next action to fix that is to cut the taxes.

John F Kennedy was also dissatisfied with economic growth in the early 60s with a growth rate at «only» 2 percent. What he wanted is 4 or five 5 percent growth. Exactly what Mr Trump want, but what happened to Kennedys taxes and is it something to learn?

In a speech John F Kennedy said: “We have to secure 25,000 new jobs a week for the next 10 years in order to provide jobs for all of the people coming into the labor market. That is a terribly difficult task at a time when automation and new machinery has taken the jobs of men. And at the present rate of economic growth or productivity increase, we are not going to have those jobs for people.”

So, automation and new machinery made it difficult in the 60`s? Wow.

The labor force in the U.S in 1960 was 70 million. Now, it is more than twice (160,381 million as of October 2017). The unemployment rate under President Trump is 4,1 percent as the number of unemployed persons decreased by 281,000 to 6,5 million in October 2017.

The unemployment was 5,2 percent in 1964, but it sooner declined to 3,8 percent later on the same year. It continued to fall to 3, percent in 1969. In other words: JFK`s tax cuts were working, and economic growth creates jobs.

Kennedy`s tax cuts were not passed by Congress until his death on February 26, 1964, in the Revenue Act of 1964. Kennedy had the right mindset. Their tax rates was too high and their tax revenues too low.

In 1964, the bill reduced the top marginal rate from over 90 percent to 70 percent. Tax revenues increased from $94 billion in 1961 to $153 billion in 1968. Cutting taxes at that time was not to incur a budget deficit, but to achieve the more prosperous, expanding economy which could bring a budget surplus. And it did.

After the tax bill, made by President Lyndon B Johnson, real GDP grew at 5,8 percent in 1965, and 6,6 percent in 1966. Lower taxes generated more revenue for Uncle Sam.

The concept is very simple but difficult for many to understand. When people have more money, they spend it which means additional tax receipts. Not only that.

Lower taxes will reduce risk-taking which is good for the U.S entrepreneurship. You can imagine what entrepreneurs like Steve Jobs, Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos, Sergei Brin and Elon Musk have added to the growth of the economy using their ideas to create new firms and jobs?

What would have happen if they all had taken a new job as an ordinary employee with IBM? The answer is very simple: a slower tech industry.

John F Kennedys tax cut model were the model for Reagans. Now, it is time for Mr Trump and it remain to see his model.

 

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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High quality Polo shirt with Shinybull logo. This version is made from breathable 100% cotton. Short sleeves and ribbed armbands.

$125.00

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The total value of publicly-traded securities that have switched from NYSE to Nasdaq is more than $1 trillion

Nasdaq is an American stock exchange and it is the second-largest exchange in the world by market capitalization, behind the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Nasdaq was founded in 1971 and when the Nasdaq Stock Market began trading, it was the world`s first electronic stock market.

NYSE, also nicknamed «The Big Board», is the world`s largest stock exchange by market capitalization of its listed companies at US $21,3 trillion as of June 2017. NYSE was founded 225 years ago, but they are losing to Nasdaq.

 

 

Don`t forget that both Nasdaq and NYSE are helping great companies do great things. They help companies raise capital that raises the world.

Many companies are switching from NYSE to Nasdaq, and more than 300 firms have jumped from NYSE to Nasdaq since 2005, which means that the total value of publicly-traded securities that have switched is more than $1 trillion.

Nasdaq is the home to the largest tech and biotech companies from Apple to Gilead Sciences. NYSE is the home for companies like Ford and Exxon but they also have some tech companies like Snap.

A company is listed on the stock exchange because of their need for money and hopefully growth, but a company will not be more valuable on Nasdaq vice vers NYSE for instance. So, why are they changing the stock exchange?

It can be many reasons. Kraft Foods had a cost-cutting reason. The tech-oriented roster at Nasdaq was the main draw for T-Mobile.

The increase in Nasdaq listings transfers including T-Mobile, CSX, Kraft Heinz, Marriott and many others is a signal of the growing momentum of publicly-traded sector leaders to the market.

Companies are also switching from Nasdaq to NYSE. More than $1 trillion in market cap is transferred from Nasdaq to NYSE since year 2000.

The tech-company Blackberry Ltd will transfer from Nasdaq to NYSE on October 16 this year. Marriott International Inc is the largest publicly traded hotel chain in the U.S, and they are moving to Nasdaq Stock market from the NYSE.

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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High quality Polo shirt with Shinybull logo. This version is made from breathable 100% cotton. Short sleeves and ribbed armbands.

$125.00

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High quality Polo shirt with Shinybull logo. This version is made from breathable 100% cotton. Short sleeves and ribbed armbands.

$125.00

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EU passenger car registrations increased +11,2% which is an all-time high

EU is selling cars like never before. According to ACEA, EU passenger car registrations increased significantly, totaling 1,891,583 units, which is up +11,2 percent in March this year. This is an all-time high.

All the big five markets recorded very strong performances during the month, with Italy (+18,2%), Spain (+12,6%) and Germany (+11,4%) posting double-digit percentage gains, followed by the UK (+8,4%) and France (+7,0%).

 


This level of growth is mainly due to Easter falling in March last year and in April this year. The demand for passenger cars from January to March 2017 increased by 8,4 percent, totaling 4,141,269 units.

Italy (+11,9%), Spain (+7,9%), Germany (+6,7%), the United Kingdom (+6,2%) and France (+4,8%) all saw their markets grow during the first three months of the year, contributing to the overall upturn in the EU market.

The growth in car sales rose «only» 2,2 percent in February this year. The demand fell in several big markets and sales of volume brands Volkswagen and Peugeot slumped. Volkswagen AG, which is the biggest manufacturer, continued to lose market share, falling down to 10,4 percent.

Volkswagen new car sales fell 6,6 percent in February, and the sales of the larger Volkswagen group, which includes Audi, Porche, Skoda and SEAT, fell 1,1 percent.

The sports car brand Jaguar in the Jaguar Land Rover Group was again the fastest growing automaker in Europe. New Jaguar sales surged about 52 percent in February, which is much better than their competitors like BMW, Audi, Daimler AG`s Mercedes and Porsche.

 

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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The FED`s “Adverse Scenario” and the major shift in the economy

The stock market has been in a euphoric rally since Donald Trump won the election in November last year. This is something that Janet Yellen and the FED has monitored. Not only that. They also monitored strong economic data which have strengthened the case for a rate hike.

As you may know, the FED raised the rates a few days ago, and normally after a rate hike, the stock market drops. Thats the case right now, but the market didnt fall much. Janet Yellen said the FED will continue to raise the rates. What will happen then?

The FED came out with Scenarios for annual stress test required under the Dodd-Frank Act Stress Testing Rules and the Capital Plan Rule on February 10, 2017. It is just a forecast; an Armageddon forecast, which is called «Adverse Scenario» Report, and the scenarios are not forecasts of the FED.

The adverse and severely adverse scenarios describe hypothetical sets of conditions designed to assess the strength of banking organizations and their resilience to adverse economic environments. The baseline scenario follows a profile similar to the average projections from a survey of economic forecasters.

We must be prepared for higher long-term interest rates. What is that suppose to mean? First of all; that is good for banks with retail customers, simply because retail customers usually have checking accounts with zero interest on them.

So, if the rates rise, the spread in the banks rise simply because the banks will make more on their lending. About 2,000 banks has disappeared the last seven years, which means the competition among the rest is not that big anymore.

We can also see a steeper yield curve and regionally concentrated episodes of deflation. More pronounced in Japan, but less severe in the Euro zone and Asia and absent in the UK and US.

This is the major shifts we will see in the FED`s «Adverse Scenario» for 2017, and U.S banks will be stress-tested again. The apocalyptic scenario means that the level of U.S real GDP will decline in the first quarter of this year.

The US economy advanced an annualized 1,9 percent on quarter in the three months of 2016, slowing from a 3,5 percent growth in the previous period and matching earlier estimates. Consumer spending rose faster than anticipated while business investment was revised lower. Last year, the GDP expanded 1,6 percent, which is the lowest since 2011.

Check out next GDP number at 2017-03-30 at 12:30 PM.

In the scenario, the unemployment rate increases to 10 percent, by the third quarter of 2018, and short-term treasury rates fall and remain near zero. House prices will also decline by about 25 – 35 percent, through the first quarter of 2019, and so will equity prices.

In the same scenario, we will se a slowdown in Asia, severe recessions and the dollar will appreciate against euro, the pound sterling and the currencies of developing Asia.

I think the next big think to look at now is the election in France. If Le Pen and the populist wins, it can turn things upside down, and start a new international crisis. Until then, trade in small caps are profitable when rates rise, and higher rates doesn`t stop tech stocks like Alphabet, Apple and Amazon from surging. This is the bull market that everyone hates.

 

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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