Category Archives: Stock market

The Chinese economy shrank 6,8 percent YoY in the first quarter of 2020 which is the first GDP contraction since records began in 1992

We are all in it toghether and the times we are living in right now is historic. Just take a look at China and the Chinese economy that shrank 6,8 percent YoY in the first quarter of 2020. What a drop! This is the first GDP contraction since records began in 1992. Wow.

The reason for the drop is well known; COVID-19. No doubt. Xi and the CCP took action after the virus outbreak and enforced a two-month-long shutdown of all non-essential business activity. Nor did they celebrate a new year, and a shutdown like this is of course very expensive.

Car production in China recorded the sharpest decline which dropped -44 percent. That is a big shock. Last year, approximately 21,36 million passenger cars and 4,36 million commercial vehicles had been produced in China.

The growth for passenger cars has jumped from 7 million in 2008 (financial crisis) to 25 million in 2017. In 2018, every fourth passenger vehicle in the world had been produced in China, and China is ranked first among countries with the largest production of passenger cars in 2018.

As you can see, the growth of the production and sale of vehicles in China have increased rapidly. Its interesting to see that almost all of the leading bestselling cars in China are the product of joint ventres with foreign manufacturers.

Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation (SAIC) has an ongoing cooperation with General Motors (GM). SAIC-GM manufactures and sells Chevrolet, Buick and Cadillac brand automobiles in Mainland China. When the sales drop in China, so it does in the U.S.

Export from China also dropped 6,6 percent YoY to $185 billion in March 2020, compared with marked estimates of a 14 percent fall and after a 17 percent plunge in January-February combined amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

Among the the biggest trade partners, exports fell to the U.S by -20,8 percent. Considering the first quarter of 2020, exports declined 13,3 percent from a year earlier.

However, China`s long term growth potential will not be affected by the short term fallout of the coronavirus pandemic, as the country`s economic fundamentals remain unchanged, the authorities said.

To contact the author of this story: Ket Garden at post@shinybull.com

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Is this the end of the bull market?

The bull market is 11 years old on Monday, and it is the longest stretch of non stop gains ever. The sell off over the past 12 trading days means that the US stocks are on the edge of a bear market. Therefore; Tuesday will be a test.

If the market goes below 20%, the bull market will officially be over, and we are entering a bear market. After the Great Recession, the bull market started in March 2009. The S&P 500 has gone straight up since then.

The S&P 500 is up 339% and it has been a slow recovery. It`s similar to the recovery from the Great Depression in June 1932 were the S&P 500 skyrocketed 325%. At that time, it was the deepest recession in modern American history.

President Franklin Roosevelt supported the bull market with massive government spending. Later on, Roosevelt pulled back from the program and the Fed tightened its reserve ratios for banks. The economy didn`t recover as much as it should, and tighter monetary and fiscal policy led to a double-dip recession.

This is why the Fed is important now. So are the Trump administration. The Fed cut the rates 50 points only days ago and they will probably come up with more news about the market even this week.

The Fed offers Repo Market $50 Billion more to ease rate pressure. New York Fed Repo Totals $112,93 Billion and Fed`s move to tap liquidity operations will buy time on more rate cuts.

What they do now is great leadership on the world stage. They can`t stop the virus but they can make liquidity.

To contact the author of this story: Ket Garden at post@shinybull.com

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2019 has been a great bull market and Trump have played a huge part in it

A lot of people started the year talking about a recession, but 2019 was a big sucess. A great bull market and a big surprise for many. President Trump have played a huge part in it by cutting tax and regulations and that`s what Wall Street like.

Only a few trading sessions are left of this Wall Street record year. It has been an unbelievable year for stocks! Recession will come one day but the bull market will continue until it stops.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Home Depot is the largest home improvement retailer in the United States and the best run retailer in the world

So far, it has been a good earnings season with a higher than average seventy-five percent of S&P 500 companies that have reported beating expectations. That was strong enough to push the stock market to record highs.

On Tuesday 19, Home Depot will report earnings before market open. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending October 2019, and the consensus EPS for the quarter is $2,52, which is up from the same quarter last year at $2,51.

The Home Depot is the largest home improvement retailer in the United States, and considered to be the best run retailer in the world. I have been watching this stock for years and it`s interesting and funny to see that they beat estimates time after time.

Home Depot opened up two stores 40 years ago. In 1979, the first two stores, built in spaces leased from J.C Penny that werw originally Treasure Island «hypermarket». As of October 20, 2019, they have 2,285 locations and 413,000 employees.

The founders created a company to keep alive the values that were important to them; Values like respect among all people, excellent customer service and giving back to communities and society.

In December 2006. the Home Depot announced its acquistion of the Chinese home improvement retailer The Home Way. The acquisition gave the Home Depot an immediate presence in China, with 12 stores in six cities.

But the Home Depot didn`t succeed in China. They lack of success in China has been attributed t o the disconnect between The Home Depot`s do-it-yourself ethos and Chinese culture. The market in China is more of a do-it-for-me culture.

So, as of April 2011, Home Depot shut its last Beijing store, the fifth Home Depot to close in China in the previous two years. As of September 16, 2012, all seven of the box stores in China had been shut down, and they has no immediate plans to further expand its specialty stores in China.

The US-China trade war is risky but the impeachment is even more risky. They want to impeach a president that have done so much for its own people, and tax cuts and many reforms have boosted to U.S economy.

Strong consumer activity and low interest rate is helping companies like Home Depot, and this is why they beat earnings all the time. At least for the last two years. But according to DM Martin`s Research, the RMI (remodeling market index) and future bid activity have come off their 2017 peaks in the past several quarters.

The management doesn`t seems to be concerned about the demand. Last quarter they said; «Current health of the U.S consumer and a stable housing environment» was postive for them. Its difficult not to be bullish, and share repurchase can push the EPS higher.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Norway`s trade surplus plunged NOK 24 billion in August

Norway`s trade surplus plunged NOK 23,8 billion in August this year. All the way down from NOK 30,5 billion to NOK 6,7 billion in the same month the prior year. This is happening in a country that is famous for being «the last Soviet state.» A country were the Communist party is growing in popularity like never before.

But is doesn`t matter, because most of the income is coming from oil and gas. In addition; they have $1 trillion in assets called The Government Pension Fund Global, also known as the Oil Fund. The fund was established in 1990 to invest the surplus revenues of the Norwegian petroleum sector.

The fund have stocks in 9158 different companies in 73 different countries. Most of the capital is invested in stocks and some of it in fixed income securities. A small part of the investments is invested in the real estate market.

The goal is to contribute to the walfare state.

Therefore, the fund and the country is dependend on sustainable growth, markets that works well and inovation.

Oil prices jumped more than 20 percent on Monday and that`s good news for Norway. The higher the price of oil, the more they earn. 62 percent of Norway`s export comes from Mineral fuels, oils and distillation products.

We all know that these category is on the way out. So, the “new oil” is fish that stands for 9,5 percent of the exports. In other words; this model is fragile.

The biggest trading partner is the United Kingdom with 22 percent export. Second is Germany with 16 percent. Third; Netherlands at 11 percent, France and Sweden with 6,7 percent. Down on the export list we will fine the U.S at 4,7 percent and China with 2,1 percent.

Two of the biggest trading partners are in trouble. United Kingdom with Brexit and Germany near recession. In addition; we have the trade tension between the U.S and China. As you can see; a higher oil price came at the right point for the fund as 62 percent of the exports comes from oil.

Brent climbed as much as 20 percent on Monday and that is the biggest percentage move since 1990 Kuwait invasion. It jumped up to $71 per barrel in the seconds after the open, before pulling back about half of the initial surge. That was equivalent to $12 increase, and that is the largest gain in dollar terms since 1988. All this is good news for Norway that is dependend on oil.

But the Nobel Peace Prize Country need to wake up, because this won`t last forever. Higher oil prices is good but that is not enough. The Petro dollar can also be a game changer in addition to all the electric vehicles that is flooding the market. Every single EV sold will decrease the demand for oil every single day.

Nor is fish enough. Oil is good especially if you are in a cartel business. You don`t have much competition either because oil is very limited in other countries. 70 percent on this planet is water and there are lots of fish in it. Other countries can start to compete in the fish industry whenever they want. Fish is not as unique as oil. Competitors can pop up and take market shares and push the prices down. Like Russia.

Russian aquaculture is planning a new RUB 1,5 billion smolt plant and that will reduce the dependence of Norwegian fry imports. Russian Aquaculture produces around 18,000 tonnes of salmon and trout on the Kola peninsula, the for northwest of Russia. Among the owners of the company are Maksim Vorobyov, the brother of the governor of Moscow.

Russia will triple the production in 11 years. The deputy head of Russia`s Fedral Agency for Fisheries Vasily Solokov has told Tass that the Russian government is drawing up plans to make salmon production account for 37 percent of all aquaculture by 2030.

Some Russian producers are hoping to increase production to cover one third of the country`s entire salmon and trout consumption. A peninsula in northern Russia which is close to key military bases and nuclear submarines is being used to grow the country`s salmon farming regime.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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