Category Archives: Stock market

Norway`s trade surplus plunged NOK 24 billion in August

Norway`s trade surplus plunged NOK 23,8 billion in August this year. All the way down from NOK 30,5 billion to NOK 6,7 billion in the same month the prior year. This is happening in a country that is famous for being «the last Soviet state.» A country were the Communist party is growing in popularity like never before.

But is doesn`t matter, because most of the income is coming from oil and gas. In addition; they have $1 trillion in assets called The Government Pension Fund Global, also known as the Oil Fund. The fund was established in 1990 to invest the surplus revenues of the Norwegian petroleum sector.

The fund have stocks in 9158 different companies in 73 different countries. Most of the capital is invested in stocks and some of it in fixed income securities. A small part of the investments is invested in the real estate market.

The goal is to contribute to the walfare state.

Therefore, the fund and the country is dependend on sustainable growth, markets that works well and inovation.

Oil prices jumped more than 20 percent on Monday and that`s good news for Norway. The higher the price of oil, the more they earn. 62 percent of Norway`s export comes from Mineral fuels, oils and distillation products.

We all know that these category is on the way out. So, the “new oil” is fish that stands for 9,5 percent of the exports. In other words; this model is fragile.

The biggest trading partner is the United Kingdom with 22 percent export. Second is Germany with 16 percent. Third; Netherlands at 11 percent, France and Sweden with 6,7 percent. Down on the export list we will fine the U.S at 4,7 percent and China with 2,1 percent.

Two of the biggest trading partners are in trouble. United Kingdom with Brexit and Germany near recession. In addition; we have the trade tension between the U.S and China. As you can see; a higher oil price came at the right point for the fund as 62 percent of the exports comes from oil.

Brent climbed as much as 20 percent on Monday and that is the biggest percentage move since 1990 Kuwait invasion. It jumped up to $71 per barrel in the seconds after the open, before pulling back about half of the initial surge. That was equivalent to $12 increase, and that is the largest gain in dollar terms since 1988. All this is good news for Norway that is dependend on oil.

But the Nobel Peace Prize Country need to wake up, because this won`t last forever. Higher oil prices is good but that is not enough. The Petro dollar can also be a game changer in addition to all the electric vehicles that is flooding the market. Every single EV sold will decrease the demand for oil every single day.

Nor is fish enough. Oil is good especially if you are in a cartel business. You don`t have much competition either because oil is very limited in other countries. 70 percent on this planet is water and there are lots of fish in it. Other countries can start to compete in the fish industry whenever they want. Fish is not as unique as oil. Competitors can pop up and take market shares and push the prices down. Like Russia.

Russian aquaculture is planning a new RUB 1,5 billion smolt plant and that will reduce the dependence of Norwegian fry imports. Russian Aquaculture produces around 18,000 tonnes of salmon and trout on the Kola peninsula, the for northwest of Russia. Among the owners of the company are Maksim Vorobyov, the brother of the governor of Moscow.

Russia will triple the production in 11 years. The deputy head of Russia`s Fedral Agency for Fisheries Vasily Solokov has told Tass that the Russian government is drawing up plans to make salmon production account for 37 percent of all aquaculture by 2030.

Some Russian producers are hoping to increase production to cover one third of the country`s entire salmon and trout consumption. A peninsula in northern Russia which is close to key military bases and nuclear submarines is being used to grow the country`s salmon farming regime.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Stocks plummet on China tariffs and Trump tweets

Trump escalates the trade fight between the U.S and China and rips Federal Reserve President Jay Powell. Trump tweeted earlier today that «Starting on October 1st, the 250 Billion dollars of goods and products from China, currently being taxed at 25%, will be taxed at 30%.

…..Additionally, the remaining 300 Billion dollars og goods and products from China, that was being taxed from September 1st at 10%, will now be taxed at 15%. And all that led to a Market chaos on Friday.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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The retail apocalypse will continue

Walgreens announced yesterday that they will close 200 US stores. A company that was founded 118 years ago. But Walgreens is not alone. About 12,000 stores are expected to close in the U.S this year.

According to CoStar Group, retailers closed a record 102 million square feet of store space in 2017, but that number was smached in 2018 by closing another 155 million square feet. To sum up; that`s thousands of stores.

So far this year, 29% more stores closings announced than last year, according to Coresight Research. They tracked the 5,864 closings in 2018, which included all Toys R Us stores and hundreds of Kmart and Sears locations.

This year, Sears are planning to close another 21 stores while Kmart will close «only» 5 stores in October. Kmart closed 48 stores earlier this year. That`s nothing compared to Walgreens’ 200 stores. Or Fred`s 442 with another 129 stores.

We have to keep in mind that some of the retailers also are opening new stores while closing locations at the same time. But……

The pain will continue for years to come. According to UBS, if the e-commerce penetration continue to rise up from its 16% level to 25%, about 75,000 stores need to be shuttered within a few years.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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JPMorgan Chase & Co will report earnings while we are entering a rate-cutting cycle

The banks are in focus this week as they will report earnings with JPMorgan Chase coming out with their report Tuesday morning before the open. JPMorgan has outperformed its peers and their growth has been 18% per year last three years.

Last two years, JPMorgan Chase has beaten Earnings Per Share estimates 100% of the time. They have also beaten revenue estimates 100% of the time.

Analysts expect JPMorgan to earn $2,50 per share in the second quarter on revenue of $28,91 billion. JPMorgan earned $2,22 in the second quarter last year.

JPMorgan is different from Well Fargo which is also reporting earnings on Tuesday. JPMorgan Chase has moved up over 10% over the past year while Wells Fargo has faced a lot of obstacles, inkluding lack of their own CEO.

The banking industry is scary to me at the moment, and the most dangerous bank in the world is in Europe. Dutche Bank has been a desaster for a long time and the company are on the edge. A collapse could send the whole world in a negative trend.

We are also entering a rate-cutting cycle which is not good for the banks either. The margins will shrink and the earnings will decline while the rates are falling and the spread between the rates on loans and the rates paid out on deposits shrinks.

Morgan Stanley and Citi both downgraded the industry as a whole because of this development with rates, but JPMorgan is still a favorite.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Huawei launched the world`s fastest 5G foldable phone Mate X on Monday

Samsung wont be alone on the market for foldable phones. Yesterday, Huawai launched the worlds fastest foldable 5G phone and the price for this awesome product is $2,600. Its a stiff price but its worth it.

You can supercharge the foldable phone called Huawei Mate X for 85 percent battery time in only 30 minutes, and so far Mate X looks like a better phone than Samsungs Galaxy Fold. It is thinner with the Folcon Wing design and have a bigger screen. Samsung will start selling Galaxy Fold on April 26, while Huaweis Mate X will be on the market in the middle of 2019.

Samsung and Huawai will not be the only one on the foldable market as we already know that other Chinese companies are on the way with their version of a brand new foldable phone. Huawei is a leading global provider of information and communications technology (ICT) infrastructure and smart devices and they are building a fully connected, intelligent world.

The synergy with a phone and tablet unlocks future potential to enhance your life everyday. Mate X has many sophisticated cameras and incredible power. You will have more power to work on projects, watch movies and play all your favorite games.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

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