Tag Archives: Retailer market

by | November 18, 2019 · 8:36 pm

Home Depot is the largest home improvement retailer in the United States and the best run retailer in the world

So far, it has been a good earnings season with a higher than average seventy-five percent of S&P 500 companies that have reported beating expectations. That was strong enough to push the stock market to record highs.

On Tuesday 19, Home Depot will report earnings before market open. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending October 2019, and the consensus EPS for the quarter is $2,52, which is up from the same quarter last year at $2,51.

The Home Depot is the largest home improvement retailer in the United States, and considered to be the best run retailer in the world. I have been watching this stock for years and it`s interesting and funny to see that they beat estimates time after time.

Home Depot opened up two stores 40 years ago. In 1979, the first two stores, built in spaces leased from J.C Penny that werw originally Treasure Island «hypermarket». As of October 20, 2019, they have 2,285 locations and 413,000 employees.

The founders created a company to keep alive the values that were important to them; Values like respect among all people, excellent customer service and giving back to communities and society.

In December 2006. the Home Depot announced its acquistion of the Chinese home improvement retailer The Home Way. The acquisition gave the Home Depot an immediate presence in China, with 12 stores in six cities.

But the Home Depot didn`t succeed in China. They lack of success in China has been attributed t o the disconnect between The Home Depot`s do-it-yourself ethos and Chinese culture. The market in China is more of a do-it-for-me culture.

So, as of April 2011, Home Depot shut its last Beijing store, the fifth Home Depot to close in China in the previous two years. As of September 16, 2012, all seven of the box stores in China had been shut down, and they has no immediate plans to further expand its specialty stores in China.

The US-China trade war is risky but the impeachment is even more risky. They want to impeach a president that have done so much for its own people, and tax cuts and many reforms have boosted to U.S economy.

Strong consumer activity and low interest rate is helping companies like Home Depot, and this is why they beat earnings all the time. At least for the last two years. But according to DM Martin`s Research, the RMI (remodeling market index) and future bid activity have come off their 2017 peaks in the past several quarters.

The management doesn`t seems to be concerned about the demand. Last quarter they said; «Current health of the U.S consumer and a stable housing environment» was postive for them. Its difficult not to be bullish, and share repurchase can push the EPS higher.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | August 20, 2018 · 6:22 pm

Kohl`s is doing it much better than most of its competitors and the stock is up around 100% YoY

I wrote about J C Penny last week. A stock that is continuing to decline on Monday. Many retailers are struggling, but not all. Kohls is a much different story. Kohls is doing it much better than most of its competitors.

The stock is doubled from $35 in May last year to $78 on Monday. Up 3,15 percent before their earning report on Tuesday. They simply beat their competitors on e-commerce, store productivity, ROIC and revenue which is pretty impressive.

Many of Kohls competitors are closing down stores, but Kohls are going in the opposite direction by opening up stores. Sales revenue increased over 6 percent in their fourth-quarter report. Diluted earnings per share came in at $5,12 in the same period.

ROIC is between 10 – 20 percent for a healthy store, while Kohls is near 10 percent, and they are keeping up their momentum. Both, J C Penny and Macys reported bad reports last week, but also here, Kohl`s are reporting positive revenue growth.

Kohls opened up its fifth e-commerce fulfillment center last year, and they have an estimated 37 million views a month to their websites. The company is also collaborating with Amazon were people can return products to Kohls.

Kohls private brands, which include Sonoma, Croft & Barrow, and Apt 9 generate nearly half of the firms $19 billion in annual sales. They also has plans to re-launch and reimagine the billion-dollar Sonoma brand for apparel and home goods.

Other brands are Jennifer Lopez and Marc Anthony. Two artist with great success on the stage.

Kohl`s uses a «racetrack» aisle that circles the entire store, a technique borrowed from discount stores. In 2011, they announced plans to remodel 100 of its 1,100 locations. Changes included redone store sections, fitting room, and newer merchandise displays.

In 2015, Kohls opened a test store built around selling only returned, yet as new clothing, home goods, jewelry, and accessories. The store, called OFF/AISLE by Kohls, sells items at a marked down price. The stores have a restrictive return policy different from regular Kohl`s stores.

In early January 2017, Kohls shares fell 19 percent in value, in what Wall Street Journal said was "the stocks worst day on record.”

Kolhl`s Corporation is expected to report earnings on August 21, 2018 before market open. The report will be for the fiscal quarter ending in July 2018. Earnings in April was a 30 percent surprise with an EPS of 0,64. The consensus EPS for the quarter this time is $1,66.

The weekly chart is positive and positive news can push the stock to a new all-time high.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | August 15, 2018 · 9:33 pm

J C Penny are declining alongside other big name retailers like Macy`s that reported a disappointing gross margin outlook

The competition in the retail market is huge. Just look at J C Penny. That stock has plummeted. It peaked in February 2007. Right before the financial crisis it peaked at $85, and now the same stock can be traded for $2,41. What a ride.

J C Penny is not alone. Swedish H&M is in the same boat. The stock peaked in February 2015, but the journey from 363 SEK to 125 SEK is huge. They both need to change their strategy as soon as possible as online retailers are flooding the market all around the world.

J C Penny was founded in 1902 by James Cash Penny and William Henry McManus. That`s 116 years ago. It is an American department store chain with 850 locations in 49 U.S states, and Porto Rico.

The company has been an internet retailer since 1998. It has streamlined its catalog and distribution while undergoing renovation improvements at store level. Competitors like Alibaba, Amazon and Ebay will push their prices down. So will competition from Wal-Mart, Kohls, Macys and Target.

The arrows are going in the opposite directions. Prices and lower margins are going down while house prices are going up. Internet retailers can afford to push down the prices because they don`t have any stores.

With 98,000 employees and growing wages it speak for itself. On January 15, 2014, the company announced it was closing down 33 underperforming stores and laying off 2,000 employees. A year later, they announced that they would close 39 underperforming stores nationwide and layoff 2,500 employees and the trend has been going since then.

In May 2018, the company reported an adjusted loss of $69 million in the first quarter and lowered its projections for the year. Sales fell 4 percent.

Earlier this year, J C Penny announced it would cut 360 jobs at its stores and corporate headquarters. They lowered its earnings forecast for the year to 13 cents per share at best, and said it can lose as much as 7 cents.

J C Penny finished the quarter with just $181 million in cash, which is down from $363 million a year ago. Much of the big decrease was because of a $190 billion debt replace. Not only that; in May, they announced resignation of their CEO Marvin Ellison.

Gross margin has declined significantly since 2016, but the U.S Census Bureau reported strong retail sales growth in May and June which can be positive for J C Penny. Sales at departments stores increased 1,8 percent YoY in May and were flat in June.

I said it many year ago; the retailer market is dead. Just look at the trend. Retailers must wake up before they end up like Radio Shack. New business models must be developed and there is no doubt that a few of them will win at the end.

It will be an enormous wild ride for the JCP stock from start on Thursday.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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