Tag Archives: S&P 500

This is the best start for the S&P 500 in nearly 20 years

What a great start of the year 2018. The best weekly gain in more than a year and the bull market continue to surprise many investors. Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped over 25,000 and nearly all of the 100 companies in the Nasdaq rose.

It is also the best start for the S&P 500 since 1999. Analysts forecasts looks pretty good and economic fundamentals are strong enough to lift the stocks higher. President Trump`s tax cut will also be good for the stock market.

It is difficult to find any reasons for a backdrop in the market. A rate hike or two wont stop investors to continue the party. What they really like is Mr Trump`s lower corporate taxes and that will not only help the U.S but also the global economic growth.

U.S stocks are looking good but European stock look even better. A great rally in European stocks so far is based on growth data for the Euro Zone. Services PMI data showed the Euro area was near its best growth in 7 years.

It has been a boost for STOXX 600 and we can thank European banks like Bank Santander and BNP Paribas for that. The outlook for European equities looks good and it is estimated a close to 10% earnings growth in 2018.

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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What`s next in the stock market?

Take a look at the Silver. Now trading at $17,50! Down another 1,17% only today! Gold is also in a red territory, trading at $1,210,80. Down -0,71% so far today. Copper is trading at $303,95, while Crude Oil (Brent) is trading at 97,20.

This is not what many investors expected. Many was bullish on gold and are still buying with both hands, but the precious metals is declining every day. Yesterday, we saw good economic data. Housing prices are up in the best market in 22 years. What will happen next in the market. Please be sceptical about everything I say, but as an investor I need to predict the market.

SPX Sept 14

Here are some thoughts: The U.S economy can continue to grow with inflation subdued and the interest rates will probably increase next year, but in a gradual pace. Stocks will probably be supported by higher earnings instead of higher valuations. If so, the S&P 500 will continue to go up to about 2,250 next year.

But what if the stock market goes up like I mentioned above and the valuations melt up in the prices of the stocks when the growth remain the same, and at the same time, the dollar keeps going up and remain strong? Then a lot of capital will flow into the U.S market again. Fed will slow down its pace of monetary normalization, and companies support higher stock prices with more share buybacks.

Maybe this is the end? This is the top, and it stops right here. It is the end of the bull market. It is a slowdown in Japan and in Europe and China has a housing bubble that will burst, and all this will stop the whole global economy.

It`s many outcomes, and that`s why it is important to trade what you see, not what you belive. Expect the unexpected, because you`ll never know what`s gonna happen out there, but when it happens, it happens fast.

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Russell 2000 vs S&P 500

Japan`s Nikkei fell on friday, dragged down by Sony Corp, Nitto Denko Corp (Apple Inc supplier) and NTT Data Corp. All of them lowered their earnings guidance. Sony had a huge drop last week. European shares rise on hopes of dovish signals from ECB.

The ECB is expected to set a more dovish tone at its policy meeting on Thursday. Many people are scared because we are at an all time high and wonder where to go now. Credit Suisse said it believed equity markets would be significantly higher in 6 and 12 months’ time.

Gold are trading at $1316,70, and it is still above the support at $1300. This presious metal seems to go sideways for a while now. VIX is still low and stock market also seems to trade sideways, but I will take a closer look at it this week.

Janet Yellen wants the FED to work strenuously (like outgoing chair Ben Bernanke) to buy up bonds. She want the money to float into the private market and to increase theoretically available credit. In other words: she wants the money to be “loose”.

So far, this strategy have never been solving any recession problems. I don`t think FED have even one example in the the FED`s 100 year of history where loose money has borne along an economic recovery. She stands for something that have never worked.

The small cap stocks is the sweet spot I am talking about today. The best measure of small caps is the Russell 2000, and it has outperformed the S&P 500 by 2 to 1 over the last three months.

The Russell 2000 is up an incredible 27% over the last 10 months, while the S&P 500 is up “only” 19%. Is the small cap ride over now? Not by a long shot. And remember: 40 small cap stocks will rise 100% today! Take a look at the chart below. I have typed in the Russell 2000 compared to S&P 500.

RUT and SPX

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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All time high

Nikkei bounced back on monday and advanced 2,2% after the downturn on friday. Topix rose 1,7% in a light trade with 2,32 billion shares changing hands. The European stocks rose to it`s five year highs today while the dollar is still under pressure. Gold is trading at $1,353,10 an ounce.

The S&P500 is up over 23% YTD. It`s time for Halloween this week, but all the ATH (all time high) are making many people scared, but that is not because of the Halloween. It is simply because the market is overbought.

Take a look at the S&P500 shart below. How many ATH can you count in that chart? You see? The world is going up and forward. Will this megatrend stop? If USA is like Japan twenty years ago, it will stop. They did never come back to it`s top. Take a look at the chart.

SP500_1955

The next months are the favorite months for many investors. If you look back over the past 60 years, the Wall Street results have been dominated by this very productive season.

You have probably heard the word October effec, the year-end effect or the January effect. Historically, November has been the second-best month of the year for the S&P500 and the third best for the Dow since 1950. It has also been the start of the most bullish months of the year, which extend to April.

You have also heard the word: “Sell in may and go away.” But sometimes it isn`t like that. Sometimes we see things are not going the way it should. You can rely on this as the forth and crucial element of the Quadruple Witching Season. Like the one that is sitting on top of other catalysts like the tide lifting all boats, but don`t forget stop loss, simply because what goes up, must come down.

50% of the companies on S&P500 have reportet their Q3 results and some of them have exceeded the investors expectations which made the rally we have seen so far in October. Today it is headed for Apple, and wednesday it is time for Facebook earnings. I look forward to both of them.

Pending Home Sales at 10:00am. (Forecast: 0,5%. Previous: -1,6%).

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Green friday

It`s optimism in the stock market again. People belive the lawmakers will solve the dept-ceiling problems. China rebound and BDI is increasing. Everything looks great. That`s in the long term. Right now the futures is down about 1 percent.

What an end of the week. Everything was green. Dow Jones was up 0,51 percent, to 15,072,60. The S&P 500 climbed 0,71 percent to 1,690,50, and Nasdaq rose up 0,89 percent to 3,807,75. 5,2 billion shares canged hands on U.S excanges, and that is 9,6 percent below the three-month average.

People belive that the lawmakers will reach a deal to end the budget impasse. That`s why we see the excanges is green now. The investors are very optimistic, and 6,4 days is the average of the days the spend to solve the problems in capitol hill.

S&P 500 is up 19 percent so far this year and from it`s 2009 low, it is up amazingly 155 percent. VIX dropped 5,3 percent today and are now down to 16,74 percent. The equity volatility gauge has fallen 7,1 percent so far this year.

China is back too, and now it seems to be a good time to invest in South East Asia. The industrial profits rose 24,2 percent in August this year. In addition; I see Baltic Dry Index has broken it`s 200 day moving average. That is good news for the economy.

Gold is still a little bit above 1300, and gold have not reacted on the shutdown earlier since 1976. The duration shutdwon has varied from one to twentyone days. Two years ago during the dept- ceiling, the gold rose from $1500 in july to $1800 in august 2011. A nice safe-heaven rally.

There`s no news to watch out for today or tomorrow. What I am looking for this week is what`s happening in capitol hill. It`s up to the republicans. People expect to see a solution and that`s why they are so optimistic. This will be an exciting week.

Markets up

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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