Tag Archives: Unemployment

Biden will discuss spending with top lawmakers this week

Trump cutted taxes and MSM said he was crazy. It is the republicans job to have as low taxes as possible. It is their policy. The same cannot be said about the democrats.The Biden administration will discuss spending with top lawmakers this week, and republicans think it sounds scary.

Biden wants to increase the taxes and that can have an impact on businesses and money makers. On top of that we also have inflation, which is also a hidden tax. Add higher interest rate on top of that. Bill Clinton did much of the same in the 90`s and as long as I can remember, it went well. But this time is probably different with covid-19 and lockdown.

Investors expected more than 1 million jobs in april, but only 266 thousand is what the Biden administration saw come in. They also expected unemployment rate at 5,8% but it jumped to 6,1% and all this was a big, big, big surprise to the market, and investors sent the market down on Monday.

Things have changed in the White House, and Maria asked Mr Mulvaney when was the last time the government gave $300 to people on a permanent basis. «If you pay people not to work, they are not going to work,» Mulvaney said.

To contact the author: post@shinybull.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shinybull.com. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; however, neither Shinybull.com nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. Shinybull.com and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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The biggest welfare state in the world is France

I need to follow up my recent article about tax, GDP, a free lunch and big governments. The Biden administration is calling for a tax hike and a much bigger government. Is the United States on the way to be a socialist country like France? If so, how would that be?

Let`s take a look at France. The biggest welfare state in the world. No other coutries in the world spend more money on welfare than the French government. No other coutries has higher taxes either.

But who is protesting a lot? No other countries in the world are protesting more than the people of France, and the yellow vest protesters showed us that. There were multiple reasons for all the protests in France. What they all had in common is that they were all dissatisfied.

Does the people of the United States really want to be a socialist state like France?

Photo by Alex Azabache on Pexels.com

First of all; lets talk about tax. No other countries in the world have higher taxes than France. Personal income tax has dropped to 45%, down from 59,6% about twenty years ago. In other words; half of your hard earned money goes to the government.

Corporate tax rate in France dropped to 28% under president Macron. Do doubt that Macron is doing something right. A Trump strategy that is boosting the economy with lower taxes (but that was before the covid attack).

In the early 80`s, the corporate tax rate in France was at a record high with 50%. All that happened under President Fracois Mitterand who served as a President of France from 1981 to 1995, the longest time in office in the history of France.

Mitterand started political life on the Catholic nationalist right, but joined the resistance and moved to the left. He opposed Charles de Gaulle`s establishment of the Fifth Republic.

He invited the Communist Party into his first government, which was a controversial decision at the time. In the event, the Communists were boxed in as junior partners and, rather than taking advantage, saw their support erode. The left the cabinet in 1984.

Interestingly, right after that, the taxes started to decline. Mitterand followed a radical left-wing economic agenda, including nationalisation of key firms, but after two years, with the economy in crisis, he reversed course.

He pushed a socially liberal agenda with reforms such as the 39-hour week, and the end of a government monopoly in radio and television broadcasting.

His partnership with German Chancellor Hermut Kohl advanced European integration via the Maastricht Treaty, but he reluctantly accepted German reunification. By the way; he was also the only French President to ever have named a female Prime Minister; Edith Cresson.

Beyond making the French left electable, Mitterand presided over the rise of the Socialist Party to dominance of the left, and the decline of the once-mighty Communist Party (as a share of the popular vote in the first presidential round, the Communists shrank from a peak of 21,27% in 1969 to 8,66% in 1995, at the end of Mitterand`s second term).

As you can see, the popularity of the Communist Party declined from about 21% to 8%, but so did the corporate tax rate under Mitterand too.

But taxes need to come from someone, and that is the people. How is that going to work out if millions are unemployed? In France, the unemployment rate has always been high. It dropped to 8% in December of 2020, down from 9,1% in the previous period.

The number of unemployed people decreased by 340 thousand to 2,4 million. That sounds expensive. Someone has to pay for it.

France spend nearly one third of their GDP on social welfare, according to OECD. France are on top of the list (27,5) while the U.S is number 22 with 14,3% (as a percentage of GDP).

If we look at total net social spending, France is still at the top with 31,7%, but interestingly, the U:S is second with 30%. Total net social spending takes into account public and private social expenditure, and also includes the effect of direct taxes (income tax and social security contributions), indirect taxation of consumption on cash benefits, as well as tax breaks for social purposes.

Top 20 list of all the countries with tax revenue as a percent of GDP from 40% to 50% are all from Europe. except one; Cuba, at number 8 on the list. A communist country among all the European countries.

The debt in France is skyrocketing. Under Mitterand, the debt to GDP was about 20. Now, under Macron it has increased to 115,70 percent in 2020 from 97,60 percent in 2019.

At the same time, Government Budget in France decreased to -9,20 percent of GDP in 2020 from -3,10 percent in 2019. In other words; the government spends more money than it takes in from taxes and other fees.

So, socialist welfare state France has more debt than the United States. Devt to GDP in the U.S increased to 107,60 percent in 2020, up from 106,90 percent in 2019.

The unemployment rate is also lower in the U.S. The unemployment rate fell to 6 percent in March of 2021. The U.S government is also spending more money than they have. In 2019, the U.S recorded a government budget deficit equal to 4,60 percent of the GDP, but it`s expected to be about 13 percent in 2020.

On top of all the taxes, people in France also need to pay for the roads. A typical socialist country has toll roads. From Boreaux to Paris, you need to pay 55,60 euros for Classe A and 85,60 euros for Classe B.

All the money you earn from Janury to June goes to the government. The govenment will give the money you give them to sick people who ask for free healthcare. State healthcare insurance is available to everyone staying in France for more than three months.

The French Social Security system runs this insurance (called PUMA), and this insurance covers about 70% of the medical costs, and in some cases, even 100% of the costs. The state also pays for every child`s education from 6 to 16 years old.

So, if you pay nearly half of your hard earned money to your welfare state, and drive a car from Boreaux to Paris often, you have to ask yourself what your real tax actually is?

To contact the author: post@shinybull.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shinybull.com. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; however, neither Shinybull.com nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. Shinybull.com and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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The US unemployment go straight up while the pending home sales go straight down

China`s growth plummeted -6,8 YoY in Q1. The growth in the U.S is still on the right side, coming in at 0,3 percent YoY in Q1. But if you look at the quarter, the growth in China is down -9,8 percent, while the U.S growth is down -4,8 percent.

The annulized 4,8 percent drop in Q1 of 2020 markes the end of the longest period of expansion in America`s history. The drop is the steepest pace of contraction in GDP since the last quarter of 2008 (financial crisis).

The Covid-19 pandemic forced several states to impose lockdown measures in mid-March and that pushed millions of people out of work. The unemployment rate go straight up while the pending home sales go straight down.

Contracts to buy previously owned homes in the US dropped 16,3 percent YoY earlier in March this year, and that is the biggest annual decline since April 2011, amid the Covid-19 crisis. On a monthly basis, pending home sales went down 20,8 percent, which is the largest drop since May 2010.

Unfortunately, it seems like this is just the beginning.

The next quarter can be very ugly, while the unemployment rate can go straight up to Great Depression levels. The growth in the US can plunge more than 30 percent. If that is happening, what do you thing will happen to the pending home sales?

The numbers are expected to get even worse in April as the government surveyed businesses and housholds for the report in mid-March, before majority of people was under some form of a lockdown.

Trump`s economic adviser Kevin Hassett said unemployment in the US can soar to 17 percent. In March the unemployment rate was 4,4 percent in the US.

During the financial crisis, the US lost about 9 million jobs, but now the US is losing that many jobs about every 10 days, Hassett told ABC on Sunday.

This is sad, because all the jobs created since the Great Recession (2008) have been wiped out. So far, we are talking about 26 million and it can be worse. Hassett told ABC the unemployment will surge to levels not seen since the Grat Depression (1929).

During the Great Depression, about 15 million jobs were lost.

So, we know what`s coming. People without job and money will not buy a house.

Pending home contracts generally are seen as a forward-looking indicator of the health of the housing market because they become sales one to two months later. This summer holiday will be very special.

To contact the author of this story: Ket Garden at post@shinybull.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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NATO not welcome in Trondheim by Norwegian Communists

In autumn 2018, Norway will be the host country for NATOs largest military exercise, known as Trident Juncture. But some people in Norway doesnt like that; The Communists in Norway. They will hold a Anti-NATO demonstration to take place in Trondheim on October 20th.

A few days ago there were many posters in Trondheim with this headline; NATO NOT WELCOME! But 40,000 troops are now in Norway from 30 nations, with 140 combat aircraft, 70 ships and 10 000 military vehicles. What they want is to train for war in central Norway.

According to the Communists in Norway, the exercise costs Norway more than 2 billion NOK and will create pollution for people and the natural environment.

The Communist Party of Norway and the Communist Youth of Norway organize a large demonstration and public meeting against the NATO military exercise on 20th of October 2018 at 13:00 pm in Tordenskjoldsparken in Trondheim.

People have often told me not to buy any American stocks, so I think I know what people I have around me. This is people with a Marxist-Leninist perspective. The same group of people can be seen in Turkey, Poland, Venezuela and Hungary to name a few.

This is people who don`t like capitalism. They are anti-capitalists and fight against what they call «imperialism.»

On their website they have this note; In the European Union the rate of unemployment in women was 10,6% in 2012 and 10,1% in 2014 (Eurostat), while the total number of women living within the limits of poverty reaches 65 million!

They also had this note; In the capitalist world especially in western Europe the labour achievements came as a result of constant and bloody class struggles. The existence of the Soviet Union and the example of the socialist construction forced a significant number of western bourgeois governments to grant some social and labour rights to their people.

However, after the counter-revolution in the USSR and eastern Europe, these social and labour rights were ferociously attacked. Today (in 2016), we live the capitalist barbarity of mass unemployment, underemployment, reduced salaries, mass lay-offs, zero-contract labour relations, child capital`s profitability; from the U.S of the 47 million people who live on the edge of poverty to the European Union of the 25 million unemployment people!

My note: This number is from 2016 and have changed. Unemployed people in the EU is now 17 million while it is 6 million in the U.S.

Furthermore, they say; the public healthcare system that was established in the Soviet Union consists a significant example of socialist construction. In Soviet Russia there was a broad state network of healthcare, based on the centrally planned socialist economy, which provided free services of medical care for the whole population.

In capitalist Russia of Mr Putin, life expectancy rate declined. In 2004 it was at 63 years of age. Furthermore, in capitalist Russia of oligarchs and monopoly groups, healthcare isn`t free and public anymore; numerous state hospitals and clinics closed while large private hospitals were created, the work «accidents» were increased (6,000 deaths every year) and the Russian working people have to pay for the services in the existing public hospitals, the Norwegian Communists say on their website.

They also talk about public and free education system. A unique achievement of Socialism`s construction in the Soviet Union was the complete elimination of illiteracy and the rapid increase of the educational level, and the author came up with this conclusion;

In any sector of the social and economic life, Socialism proved its superiority over Capitalism. And when we talk about «superiority» we refer on how the Socialist system managed to satisfy peoples needs by eliminating the exploitation of man by man.

Capitalism, with it`s anarhist nature in production and the deification of profit, has nothing more to offer to humanity except from poverty, misery, unemployment, inequalities and wars.

The Soviet Union and the socialist states of the 20th century, despite their existed problems, proved that a better world is possible. Despite the temporary historical setback of the 1989-1991 counter-revolution, nothing has finished. The end of history didn`t come, Mr. Fukuyama and dear apologists of Capitalism.

Socialism-Communism is the future of humanity, author Nikos Mottas said. A PhD candidate in Political Science, International Relations and Political History, and the editor-in-Chief of «In Defence of Communism.»

My note: Why do communists always talk about non-profit organisations like health-care systems and educational systems? You can also add the police force and fire department. They are all non-profit organisations. But they do not create something. It`s just a little part of the society and just a cost.

Capitalism and profit organisations are something different. A mix of Capitalism and Socialism and Communism can be a better way. In other words; a mix of non-profit and profit organisations. Its not a question about Capitalism or Communism. Its both. A mix.

You dont buy stocks in a hospital or a police force. Its a non-profit organisation. But you buy stocks in Apple so they can grow and voila; you have a revolutionary product called; iPhone. That`s wealth for you. It made the world a better place. It made your life more easy.

Socialism and Communism are both old words. They belong to the old school and doesn`t sound good at all. Why not change the words? Why not call it “Crowdfunding?” A much better word.

The Communists in Norway will hold a public meeting with the theme «How do we fight imperialism?» and the meeting will take place in Trondheim at 18:00 pm. After the meeting there will be a social gathering.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

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Banks are in focus this week and ECB could change its forward guidance

The FED is expected to increase the short-term interest rate by 25 basis points this week. If the FED does not raise rates at he March FOMC meeting, it will be a big surprise for many investors. Two things to look for is unemployment and inflation.

The FED is not the only one to have a look at the rates this month. BOJ and ECB is also looking at the rate. All this is headed for an exiting week.

 

 

The U.S unemployment rate fell to 4,7 percent last month which is in line with market expectations. Labor force participation rate increased by 0,1 percentage point to 63 percent, and the number of unemployment persons was almost unchanged at 7,5 million.

Inflation rate is at near 5-year high of 2,5 percent, which is the highest since March of 2012. The inflation rate accelerated for the sixth consecutive month, mainly boosted by gasoline prices. Energy prices jumped 10,8 percent YoY and food prices declined 0,2 percent.

 

 

Watch out for inflation in February 2017 on Wednesday 15 at 12:30 PM. forecast is 2,5%.

Mario Draghi and ECB discussed whether rates can rise before QE ends. A big surprise for many analysts. Why are they doing that? The fact is that they are not satisfied with negative interest rates. This negative rates is squeezing banks’ profit margins because they are not matching the cost, and that will make if difficult for banks to lend to households and companies.

BNP Paribas has predicted the deposit rate will be increased this September, and QE is intended to run until at least the end of 2017. Some people said at least mid-2018. Anyway; analysts will scrutinize the ECB statement on Thursday to look for any changes.

BOJ will have an Interest rate decision on Thursday 16th at 03:00 AM. Forecast is -0,1 percent, which is the same as its January 2017 meeting. In January, policymakers also decided to maintain its 10-years government bond yield target around zero percent.

Economic growth forecast is 1,5 percent for 2017 fiscal year from an earlier projection of a 1,3 percent growth.

Banks are in focus this week and ECB could change its forward guidance.

 

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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