Tag Archives: OECD

It will be a deeper UK recession after the tax U-turn

Boris Johnson is out because he went too much on the left side. PM Liz Truss came in, but she`s also in trouble because Jeremy Hunt didn`t like her tax cuts. Farage believes he`s a globalist asset. Hunt is reversing most of PM`s flagship «mini-budget» tax cuts.

Jeremy Hunt was beaten by Boris Johnson in 2019. Hunt is also the man who was knocked out in the first round of the leadership contest this year. According to Farage, Hunt is not just a Chancellor. He`s running the country. He believes it`s a globalist coup.

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Joe Biden like this a lot. He`s so delighted. The IMF, OECD, BOE, the treasury, and the Chancellor of Germany are all over the moon. They all want a bigger state, with more significant taxes, and that was the sin of what was proposed by Kwaseng. He wanted people to keep more of their own money, and perhaps in time reduce the size of the state.

The conservative party stands for lower taxes. Like the conservative party in the United States. It`s their main goal. Their agenda. Furthermore, they stand for individual freedom, limited government, peace through strength, and free markets to name a few.

This is a historic moment. I have never seen something like this before. What a mess. Political chaos. The United Kingdom is in trouble. Economically, but also socially. It will take some time to get out of this mess.

Hunt wants people to pay more taxes because he wants a bigger government. He wants small businesses to pay more tax, and they have declared war on the self-employed, according to Farage. Taxes on small companies will rise significantly. In addition, there will be a major rise in corporation taxes and dividend taxes.

Wall Street bank, Goldman Sachs came out with a note on Sunday, and they see a deeper UK recession after the tax U-turn.

Goldman Sachs downgraded Britain`s outlook, and revised its 2023 economic output forecast to a 1% contraction from an earlier forecast for a 0,4% output drop, with core inflation seen at 3,1% at the end of 2023, down from 3,3% previously.

«Folding in weaker growth momentum, significantly tighter financial conditions, and the higher corporation tax from next April, we downgrade our UK growth outlook further and now expect a more significantly recession,» Goldman analysts led by Sven Jari Stehn said in a note dated Sunday.

«The persistence of core inflation and the continued tightness in the labor market suggests that the BoE still needs to take more monetary policy into significantly contractionary territory,» Goldman analysts wrote.

«That said, following PM Truss`s policy reversal we think there is less pressure for the BoE to act aggressively in the coming meetings,» they added.

Experts believe Liz Truss will be out as Prime Minister within weeks. So, this is how a democracy is working? Who voted for Hunt with his left-wing policy?

The statement that was made by Hunt earlier today is just in line with the leftist Labor party. It seems like the Tory party is dead. So, what`s the point of a conservative right-wing party at all?

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shinybull.com. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; however, neither Shinybull.com nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. Shinybull.com and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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The biggest welfare state in the world is France

I need to follow up my recent article about tax, GDP, a free lunch and big governments. The Biden administration is calling for a tax hike and a much bigger government. Is the United States on the way to be a socialist country like France? If so, how would that be?

Let`s take a look at France. The biggest welfare state in the world. No other coutries in the world spend more money on welfare than the French government. No other coutries has higher taxes either.

But who is protesting a lot? No other countries in the world are protesting more than the people of France, and the yellow vest protesters showed us that. There were multiple reasons for all the protests in France. What they all had in common is that they were all dissatisfied.

Does the people of the United States really want to be a socialist state like France?

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First of all; lets talk about tax. No other countries in the world have higher taxes than France. Personal income tax has dropped to 45%, down from 59,6% about twenty years ago. In other words; half of your hard earned money goes to the government.

Corporate tax rate in France dropped to 28% under president Macron. Do doubt that Macron is doing something right. A Trump strategy that is boosting the economy with lower taxes (but that was before the covid attack).

In the early 80`s, the corporate tax rate in France was at a record high with 50%. All that happened under President Fracois Mitterand who served as a President of France from 1981 to 1995, the longest time in office in the history of France.

Mitterand started political life on the Catholic nationalist right, but joined the resistance and moved to the left. He opposed Charles de Gaulle`s establishment of the Fifth Republic.

He invited the Communist Party into his first government, which was a controversial decision at the time. In the event, the Communists were boxed in as junior partners and, rather than taking advantage, saw their support erode. The left the cabinet in 1984.

Interestingly, right after that, the taxes started to decline. Mitterand followed a radical left-wing economic agenda, including nationalisation of key firms, but after two years, with the economy in crisis, he reversed course.

He pushed a socially liberal agenda with reforms such as the 39-hour week, and the end of a government monopoly in radio and television broadcasting.

His partnership with German Chancellor Hermut Kohl advanced European integration via the Maastricht Treaty, but he reluctantly accepted German reunification. By the way; he was also the only French President to ever have named a female Prime Minister; Edith Cresson.

Beyond making the French left electable, Mitterand presided over the rise of the Socialist Party to dominance of the left, and the decline of the once-mighty Communist Party (as a share of the popular vote in the first presidential round, the Communists shrank from a peak of 21,27% in 1969 to 8,66% in 1995, at the end of Mitterand`s second term).

As you can see, the popularity of the Communist Party declined from about 21% to 8%, but so did the corporate tax rate under Mitterand too.

But taxes need to come from someone, and that is the people. How is that going to work out if millions are unemployed? In France, the unemployment rate has always been high. It dropped to 8% in December of 2020, down from 9,1% in the previous period.

The number of unemployed people decreased by 340 thousand to 2,4 million. That sounds expensive. Someone has to pay for it.

France spend nearly one third of their GDP on social welfare, according to OECD. France are on top of the list (27,5) while the U.S is number 22 with 14,3% (as a percentage of GDP).

If we look at total net social spending, France is still at the top with 31,7%, but interestingly, the U:S is second with 30%. Total net social spending takes into account public and private social expenditure, and also includes the effect of direct taxes (income tax and social security contributions), indirect taxation of consumption on cash benefits, as well as tax breaks for social purposes.

Top 20 list of all the countries with tax revenue as a percent of GDP from 40% to 50% are all from Europe. except one; Cuba, at number 8 on the list. A communist country among all the European countries.

The debt in France is skyrocketing. Under Mitterand, the debt to GDP was about 20. Now, under Macron it has increased to 115,70 percent in 2020 from 97,60 percent in 2019.

At the same time, Government Budget in France decreased to -9,20 percent of GDP in 2020 from -3,10 percent in 2019. In other words; the government spends more money than it takes in from taxes and other fees.

So, socialist welfare state France has more debt than the United States. Devt to GDP in the U.S increased to 107,60 percent in 2020, up from 106,90 percent in 2019.

The unemployment rate is also lower in the U.S. The unemployment rate fell to 6 percent in March of 2021. The U.S government is also spending more money than they have. In 2019, the U.S recorded a government budget deficit equal to 4,60 percent of the GDP, but it`s expected to be about 13 percent in 2020.

On top of all the taxes, people in France also need to pay for the roads. A typical socialist country has toll roads. From Boreaux to Paris, you need to pay 55,60 euros for Classe A and 85,60 euros for Classe B.

All the money you earn from Janury to June goes to the government. The govenment will give the money you give them to sick people who ask for free healthcare. State healthcare insurance is available to everyone staying in France for more than three months.

The French Social Security system runs this insurance (called PUMA), and this insurance covers about 70% of the medical costs, and in some cases, even 100% of the costs. The state also pays for every child`s education from 6 to 16 years old.

So, if you pay nearly half of your hard earned money to your welfare state, and drive a car from Boreaux to Paris often, you have to ask yourself what your real tax actually is?

To contact the author: post@shinybull.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shinybull.com. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; however, neither Shinybull.com nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. Shinybull.com and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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