Tag Archives: Election

The FED`s “Adverse Scenario” and the major shift in the economy

The stock market has been in a euphoric rally since Donald Trump won the election in November last year. This is something that Janet Yellen and the FED has monitored. Not only that. They also monitored strong economic data which have strengthened the case for a rate hike.

As you may know, the FED raised the rates a few days ago, and normally after a rate hike, the stock market drops. Thats the case right now, but the market didnt fall much. Janet Yellen said the FED will continue to raise the rates. What will happen then?

The FED came out with Scenarios for annual stress test required under the Dodd-Frank Act Stress Testing Rules and the Capital Plan Rule on February 10, 2017. It is just a forecast; an Armageddon forecast, which is called «Adverse Scenario» Report, and the scenarios are not forecasts of the FED.

The adverse and severely adverse scenarios describe hypothetical sets of conditions designed to assess the strength of banking organizations and their resilience to adverse economic environments. The baseline scenario follows a profile similar to the average projections from a survey of economic forecasters.

We must be prepared for higher long-term interest rates. What is that suppose to mean? First of all; that is good for banks with retail customers, simply because retail customers usually have checking accounts with zero interest on them.

So, if the rates rise, the spread in the banks rise simply because the banks will make more on their lending. About 2,000 banks has disappeared the last seven years, which means the competition among the rest is not that big anymore.

We can also see a steeper yield curve and regionally concentrated episodes of deflation. More pronounced in Japan, but less severe in the Euro zone and Asia and absent in the UK and US.

This is the major shifts we will see in the FED`s «Adverse Scenario» for 2017, and U.S banks will be stress-tested again. The apocalyptic scenario means that the level of U.S real GDP will decline in the first quarter of this year.

The US economy advanced an annualized 1,9 percent on quarter in the three months of 2016, slowing from a 3,5 percent growth in the previous period and matching earlier estimates. Consumer spending rose faster than anticipated while business investment was revised lower. Last year, the GDP expanded 1,6 percent, which is the lowest since 2011.

Check out next GDP number at 2017-03-30 at 12:30 PM.

In the scenario, the unemployment rate increases to 10 percent, by the third quarter of 2018, and short-term treasury rates fall and remain near zero. House prices will also decline by about 25 – 35 percent, through the first quarter of 2019, and so will equity prices.

In the same scenario, we will se a slowdown in Asia, severe recessions and the dollar will appreciate against euro, the pound sterling and the currencies of developing Asia.

I think the next big think to look at now is the election in France. If Le Pen and the populist wins, it can turn things upside down, and start a new international crisis. Until then, trade in small caps are profitable when rates rise, and higher rates doesn`t stop tech stocks like Alphabet, Apple and Amazon from surging. This is the bull market that everyone hates.

 

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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The Ides of March and the European Union

Dont forget March 15, and what happened 44 BC. The founder of the Roman Republic, Julius Caesar was assassinated and killed by members of the Roman Senate. It is the worlds most famous political murders.

The problem was that they didn`t know what to do after Caesars death, so they went from a republican system of government and became an empire. This is actual today. The democracy is under attack.

 

 

It should be understood that the Optimate and the Populare were not political parties in conflict with each other but, rather, political ideologies which many people shifted toward and from, regardless of class in society.

Caesar was assassinated by a group of rebellious senators, and a new civil war broke out. The constitutional government of the Republic was never fully restored, and the Roman Empire began. Rome finally became an empire at the end of the 1th century BC.

British historian Edward Gibbon argued in The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire» (1776) that the Romans had become decadent, they had lost civic virtue.

Glen W. Bowersock has remarked; “We have been obsessed with the fall: it has been valued as an archetype for every perceived decline, and, hence, as a symbol for our own fears.” It remains one of the greatest historical questions, and has a tradition rich in scholarly interest.

Europe has since the fall of Rome been, not only Euro Zone, but Danger Zone. Are you able to count all the wars in Europe since the fall of Rome? I wrote about the Revolution of 1848 on May 6th last year. We now see many similarities in Europe today.

The Revolution of 1848 was also known as the Spring of Nations or Springtime of the Peoples. It was a series of political upheavals throughout Europe in 1848. It remains the most widespread revolutionary wave in European history.

The revolution was essentially democratic in nature, with the aim of removing the old feudal structure and creating independent national states. Over 50 countries were affected, and important factors were widespread dissatisfaction with political leadership and the upspring of nationalism to name a few.

Now, it is 2017, and many of the same things going on. Political turmoil, Populism and Nationalism.

Britain voted to leave the European Union last summer, and Netherland can be the next country to follow. But how?

The blond populist Geert Wilders must win the election in Netherland. He is the anti-Islam leader of the Dutch far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) and he is riding high on a wave of populism. Geert Wilders has pledged to close the Netherlands’ borders, shut down mosques and leave the euro and EU if he gets into power.

Wilder`s problem is that no one is willing to form a coalition with him, and that will result in a political mess after the election. There are very few, if any parties, that will go into Parliament with him.

A triumph for Wilders would emboden French voters to back far-right Presidential candidate Marine Le Penn in elections beginning next month. Le Penn will also withdraw France from the Eurozone, and that would be a big threat to the euro.

Latest polls tell us that Mark Rutte will win and Wilders will get about 19 out of 150 seats in Netherland. In France, Le Penn leads the first poll, but she is widely expected to lose in the second round.

We are living in a critical moment right now.

 

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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President Donald Trump are good at solving debt problems

The silent majority has spoken. Donald Trump is the next President of the United States of America. Many people are in shock, claiming that they don`t know how the future will be. Others are scared because Trump can hit the nuclear-button.

How will the world be like with Donald Trump as the next U.S President? Take a look at the video below. You will be surprised.

 

 

15 years ago, Donald Trump was against the war in Iraq. A war in Iraq will destabilize the Middle-East, he said. And he was right.

With Donald Trump at the White House 15 years ago, we wouldnt be in war with Iraq. A stupid war that gave the people a lot of terrorism in return. A war that nobody from the grassroot supported. The establishment didnt listen to the grassroot, and I think that was a big mistake.

This is exactly what Donald Trump is fighting against; the establishment. A group of arrogant people who is not listening to the majority of people. Trump also seems to like Russia and Putin. The opposite of what the establishment stands for.

We have heard NATO claiming that Putin and Russia is dangerous, but people dont belive in it. Trump and Putin doesnt like war. They like business, growth and prosperity. Productivity in the military system is productivity at the wrong place.

So, why are so many people so scared? So far, I haven`t heard one single person talk about the U.S debt. Do you really know how much debt they own? I can tell you. The debt is too much to handle. It will soon reach $20 trillion!

Personally, I have never been a fan of debt. It can kill you. Trump will start the new year with a budget deficit which is more than $500 billion and the national debt will go above $20 trillion. What a case for Trump. A man who is familiar with debt.

Social Security hold about $5 trillion of this debt, and less than $15 trillion in public hands. The interest rate is still below 2% with a net interest cost of $223 billion in 2015. The federal budget for this fiscal year is about $4 trillion, and the debt will continue to grow.

The U.S is growing faster than the European Union. What if the GDP in the U.S will grow faster than 3%, and what if Trump start tax relief programs?

If the U.S pay more than $300 billion in interest, it will jump to about $500 billion if the interest rate on the U.S debt jumps from 2% to 3%. The more interest rate jumps, the more interest cost jumps. How in the world are they gonna stop the debt?

Trump can be the solution.

Trump`s hotel and casino businesses have declared bankruptcy five times between 1991 and 2014. The reason for the first four bankruptcies were over-leveraged hotel and casino businesses in Atlanta City.

According to a report by Forbes in 2011, Trump said: «Ive used the laws of this country to pare debt..... well have the company. Well throw it into a chapter. Well negotiate with the banks. Well make a fantastic deal. You know, its like on The Apprentice. Its not personal. Its just business.»

Donald Trump solved his own business debt by negotiations. Will it be easy for him to do the same with the U.S debt? In the video above, Trump said that politicians just talk without any actions. America needs a strong leader, he said.

Now, it is up to Mr Donald Trump himself to do something. To get some action. People voted for him because he is an outsider. They voted for him because they belive that he can handle the economy, taxes and create jobs better than Hillary Clinton. He is not only an outsider, but also a businessman. Not a politician.

Trump once said: «We owe $19 trillion. Boy, am I good at solving debt problems. Nobody can solve it like me.

 

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Donald Trump is flying high

Donald Trump is a rich man and there is no doubt that Trump has done a great job. That being said, he didn`t build his empire from zero. He is born in a rich family and went from rich to even richer.

Donald John Trump who is from Queens in New York City, is a son of real estate developer Fred Trump. He joined his father’s company in 1971 and changed the name from Elizabeth Trump & Son to «The Trump Organisation».

Donald Trump is the man behind Trump Tower, a 58-story, mixed-use skyscraper in Manhattan. He is also the man behind Trump Taj Mahal, which is a casino in Atlantic City. He is the owner of The Trump Organization which owns, operates, develops, and invests in real estate around the world.

 

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Trumps hotel and casino businesses have declared bankruptcy five times between 1991 and 2014. The reason for the first four bankruptcies were over-leveraged hotel and casino businesses in Atlanta City: Trumps Taj Mahal, Trump Plaza Hotel, Trump Hotels and Casino Resorts, and Trump Entertainment Resorts.

According to a report by Forbes in 2011, Trump said: “Ive used the laws of this country to pare debt...... Well have the company. Well throw it into a chapter. Well negotiate with the banks. Well make a fantastic deal. You know, its like on The Apprentice. Its not personal. Its just business.” He indicated that other «great entrepreneurs» do the same.

In his campaigns, Donald Trump often talks about negotiations and how to do business. Trump had problems because he had too much debt. So is it in the The United States. The U.S debt is the largest in the world right now. Nearly $20 trillion.

If Donald Trump solved the debt problems in his own companies, will it be easy for him to solve America`s debt too? People vote for him and belive he can handle the economy, taxes and create jobs better than Hillary Clinton. Simply because he is a businessman and not a politicians.

He said: «We owe $19 trillion. Boy, am I good at solving debt problems. Nobody can solve it like me.»

Debt-based growth must come to an end, and sometimes it goes terribly wrong. Not only for private persons and corporations, but also for country`s. Donald Trump had too much debt, but he negotiated and survived.

Some countries have debt greater than their entire annual economic output, which is more than 100% of their GDP. Those countries are in danger of default, just like Iceland in 2008. Japan is the worst example with 229,20% debt. Greece are in trouble with 179% debt-to-GDP.

The United States has a debt-to-GDP ratio of 102,98%. The private debt is nearly $14 trillion larger than any other single country. If the U.S defaulted on its debt, it would bring the global economy down to its knees. In comparison, the U.S debt in 1945 (end of World War II) peaked at 113%.

Ronald Reagan became the 40th president of the United States in 1980, and he declared «debt» to be one of his major campaign issues.

 

Reagan

 

In 1981 he said: «For decades, we have piled deficit upon deficit, mortgaging our future and our children`s future for the temporary convenience of the present….. You and I, as individuals, can, by borrowing, live beyond our means, but for only a limited period of time. Why, then, should we think that collectively, as a nation, we are not bound by that same limitation?»

Between 1980 and 1990, the debt more than tripled as the government borrowed money to fund military build-ups and many elaborate new policies, such as «the war on drugs.» Americans began relying more and more on credit cards and jumbo mortgages, and being «in debt» became a new way of life in America.

Debt-to-GDP rose under Ronald Reagan, when the U.S fell into a particularly nasty recession, set off by the Federal Reserve under Paul Volcker, who raised interest rates to record heights in order to defeat inflation.

The Federal Reserve left the target range for its federal funds rate unchanged at 0,25% to 0,50% for the second time during the meeting held on March 16th 2016. That`s low right.

36 year ago, on March of 1980, the interest rate reached an all time high of 20%!

Government receipts flattened thanks in part to the large, permanent tax cuts that served as one of the top accomplishments of President Ronald Reagan`s first term. Spending jumped on both defense and social programs, and deficit exploded.

 

borrow

 

President Obama talked about his visions during his election. One of his cases was Guantanamo bay. He wanted to close it, but its still open. He still have ten months left, but it seems like a Republican-led Congress will do anything to help bring Obamas 2008 campaign promise to fruition.

Many of Trumps ides sounds very expensive, and sometimes it will be difficult for him to get any support because he wont have a free pass from Congress, even if it remains under the control of the Republican party.

Trump`s immigration plans was not a popular decision and may have cost him a lot of business deals, but it might cost the Unites States much more, while Immigration is an enormous source of economic vitality.

The Census Bureau estimates the US population will grow to 397 million in 2050 with immigration, but only to 328 million with no immigration. One of the biggest challenges in the future will be demand based on accelerating retirement of the baby boomers.

Like in Europe, immigration can therefore be the solution. It`s not a crisis, but an opportunity.

Donald Trump floated the idea of running for president in 1988, 2004 and 2012, and for Governor of New York in 2006 and 2014, but did not enter those races. Trump is pro-active and there is no doubt that he wan`t to reach the top. This is a big thinker.

Despite a lot of anti-Trump ads, he is at the top of the Republican party, but betting odds for the next U.S President is pretty clear: 70 – 30 in favour of Hillary Clinton.

 

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Super Tuesday is the biggest day of the 2016 primary season

Who will be the next U.S President? It`s up to the American people to vote and Tuesday is the biggest day of the 2016 primary season with 13 states and one territory participating. The day is called ”Super Tuesday” because the largest number of states hold their nominating contests.

The U.S President is important not only for the Americans but for the rest of the world. With so much tension, the next U.S President is more important than ever.

Poll shows that Hillary Clinton leads in most states on the Democratic side, and she is up by double digits in Texas, Virginia, Georgia, Arkansas and Alabama. For Republicans, Donald Trump seems to be a leader in Vermont, Virginia, Oklahoma and Georgia.

 

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(Picture: George Washington at the White House)

 

Super Tuesday is important because it will be difficult for Sanders to beat Clinton if she wins a large delegate lead over him.  If not, the Democrats primary will continue. Candidates on both sides have spent a lot of time and resources in Texas, which is vital with 155 Republican delegates and 252 total Democratic delegates at stake.

Super Tuesday was important in 2008. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton each declared victory after a close and chaotic finish, and no other day than Super Tuesday gives a single candidate as much of a chance to declare a sense of certainty about his or her position.

Donald Trumps slogan is ”Make America great again”, while Hillary Clintons slogan is ”Hillary for America.”

The unemployment rate in the U.S dropped to 4,9% in January 2016, so why is Trump saying he want to make America great again? President Ronald Reagan promised to make America great again in the 80`s. At that time, the unemployment rate was 11% with a recession on top of that.

Mr Trump claims in a campaign video that the U.S ifrastructure has made the country a global laughingstock. He said: ”Our airports, bridges, and roadways is falling apart. It`s a terrible thing to see.”

Everyday Americans need a Champion, and I want to be that Champion, Hillary Clinton says in her campaign video. Right in line with her slogan ”Hillary for America.” It remains to see whats most important for the people. That`s whats really counts.

The next primaries after Super Tuesday is on Saturday, March 5. Democrats and Republicans vote in the Kansas caucuses and Louisiana primaries. Republicans will also vote in Kentucky and Maine, while Democrats will vote in Nebraska. On Sunday, Democrats go the polls in Maine.

By the way, Voter turnout in America is among the lowest in the developed world. Only 42% of Americans voted in the 2014 midterm elections, and that`s the lowest since 1978. The rise of the donor class and the influx of corporate cash have caused many voters to lose faith in politics.

Americans will elect the 45th President of the United States on November 8, 2016, and the winner of the 2016 presidential election will be sworn into office on January 20, 2017.

God Luck!

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

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