Tag Archives: COVID-19

A terrible U.S unemployment rate jumped to 14,7% in April of 2020 which is the highest in the U.S history

Only two months ago, the U.S unemployment rate was at a 50-year low of 3,5 percent and the U.S economy was great with a growth much higher than the rest of the world. But now, everything have changed. It`s all turned upside down.

The U.S unemployment rate jumped to 14,7 percent in April 2020 and that is the highest unemployment rate in the U.S history. This is terrible. This is ugly and the worst we have seen as the Coronavirus pushed millions out of work.

The number of unemployed persons rose by 15,9 million to 23,1 million in April. The labor force participation rate decreased by 2,5 percentage points over the month to 60,2 percent which is the lowest rate since January 1973.

The U.S economy is likely to shed a record 22 million jobs in April, which would be the biggest drop in payrolls since the Great depression!

The coronavirus pandemic ended an historic 113 straight months of employment growth. It was the first decline in payrolls since September of 2010 but the figures were not as bad as those seen in 2008 as the number excluded the last two weeks of March when unemployment claims surged by nearly 10 million. About two-thirds of job loses occured in leisure and hospitality, mainly in food services and drinking places.

It took over ten years to push down the unemployment rate from about 10 to just 3,5 percent, but it took only weeks to push it back to a record 14,7 percent.

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The Euro area “is facing an economic contraction of a magnitude and speed that are unprecedented in peacetime”

Europe is in trouble. The growth is plummeting. The Euro area Ā«is facing an economic contraction of a magnitude and speed that are unprecedented in peacetimeĀ», the ECB president Christine Lagarde said on a news conference in Frankfurt, Germany earlier today.

The Eurozone economy shrank by 3,8 percent on quarter in Q1, and that was the steepest contraction since comparable records began in 1995 as a coronavirus lockdown from mid-March forced businesses to close and consumers to stay at home.

And this is just the beginning. Ms Lagarde suggested euro area GDP could fall by between 5 and 12 percent this year. I repeat: 12 percent!

Not only the euro area came out with the GDP news today. France came out with their bad news today. The French economy shrank 5,8 percent on quarter in the three months to March 2020. And you know what; they are entering a technical recession. I repeat; recession!

This is ugly. This is the steepest decline in GDP on record, as the Covid-19 outbreaks stopped the economy. Household consuption plummeted -6,1 percent, led by falls in spending on both goods and service, fixed investment; -11,8 percent. Foreign demand contributed negatively as both exports and imports fell.

Italy is also in a technical recession. Italy`s GDP shrank 4,7 percent on quarter in the three months to March of 2020. It was the steepest contraction since comparable records began in 1995, as the country was severely hurt by the coronavirus pandemic during March.

The domestic and external demand contributed negatively to the GDP in Italy.

Spain is in the same club. Their economy shrank 5,2 percent on quarter in the first three months of 2020. That is the steepest contraction since the series began in 1995, as the Covid-19 pandemic forced the government to impose lockdown measures in mid-March.

Years of economic growth is wiped out at a pace never seen before. Not only in Europe but also in the United States. The unemployment rate go straight up and the personal spending go straight down.

Personal spending in the US dropped 7,5 percent month-over-month in March 2020, and that was the largest decline in personal spending on record, as the coronavirus crisis hit households’ demand.

Within services, the leading contributor to the decrease was spending on health care.

What`s interesting to see is that France has the highest personal income tax rate in Europe, which is 45 percent. At the same time they have a very high unemployment rate; 8,1 percent. Not only that; their Dept to GDP is 98,10 percent.

Unemployment rate in Italy is 8,4. Personal income tax rate is 43 percent. Both very similar to France, but Italy`s Debt to GDP is 134,8 percent.

Government Debt to GDP in Spain is 95,5 percent with an unemployment rate of 14,41 percent. Personal income tax rate is similar to France and Italy; 45 percent.

France, Italy and Spain has also a lot of problems with the coronavirus. They are all on top of the debt burden list, but they are also on top when it comes to covid-19.

It seems like it is a correlation between debt, high unemployment rate, personal tax income and coronavirus deaths. In comparison; the US debt to GDP is 107 percent as of December 2019. Experts say it will be worse.

To contact the author of this story: Ket Garden at post@shinybull.com

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The US unemployment go straight up while the pending home sales go straight down

China`s growth plummeted -6,8 YoY in Q1. The growth in the U.S is still on the right side, coming in at 0,3 percent YoY in Q1. But if you look at the quarter, the growth in China is down -9,8 percent, while the U.S growth is down -4,8 percent.

The annulized 4,8 percent drop in Q1 of 2020 markes the end of the longest period of expansion in America`s history. The drop is the steepest pace of contraction in GDP since the last quarter of 2008 (financial crisis).

The Covid-19 pandemic forced several states to impose lockdown measures in mid-March and that pushed millions of people out of work. The unemployment rate go straight up while the pending home sales go straight down.

Contracts to buy previously owned homes in the US dropped 16,3 percent YoY earlier in March this year, and that is the biggest annual decline since April 2011, amid the Covid-19 crisis. On a monthly basis, pending home sales went down 20,8 percent, which is the largest drop since May 2010.

Unfortunately, it seems like this is just the beginning.

The next quarter can be very ugly, while the unemployment rate can go straight up to Great Depression levels. The growth in the US can plunge more than 30 percent. If that is happening, what do you thing will happen to the pending home sales?

The numbers are expected to get even worse in April as the government surveyed businesses and housholds for the report in mid-March, before majority of people was under some form of a lockdown.

Trump`s economic adviser Kevin Hassett said unemployment in the US can soar to 17 percent. In March the unemployment rate was 4,4 percent in the US.

During the financial crisis, the US lost about 9 million jobs, but now the US is losing that many jobs about every 10 days, Hassett told ABC on Sunday.

This is sad, because all the jobs created since the Great Recession (2008) have been wiped out. So far, we are talking about 26 million and it can be worse. Hassett told ABC the unemployment will surge to levels not seen since the Grat Depression (1929).

During the Great Depression, about 15 million jobs were lost.

So, we know what`s coming. People without job and money will not buy a house.

Pending home contracts generally are seen as a forward-looking indicator of the health of the housing market because they become sales one to two months later. This summer holiday will be very special.

To contact the author of this story: Ket Garden at post@shinybull.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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The Chinese economy shrank 6,8 percent YoY in the first quarter of 2020 which is the first GDP contraction since records began in 1992

We are all in it toghether and the times we are living in right now is historic. Just take a look at China and the Chinese economy that shrank 6,8 percent YoY in the first quarter of 2020. What a drop! This is the first GDP contraction since records began in 1992. Wow.

The reason for the drop is well known; COVID-19. No doubt. Xi and the CCP took action after the virus outbreak and enforced a two-month-long shutdown of all non-essential business activity. Nor did they celebrate a new year, and a shutdown like this is of course very expensive.

Car production in China recorded the sharpest decline which dropped -44 percent. That is a big shock. Last year, approximately 21,36 million passenger cars and 4,36 million commercial vehicles had been produced in China.

The growth for passenger cars has jumped from 7 million in 2008 (financial crisis) to 25 million in 2017. In 2018, every fourth passenger vehicle in the world had been produced in China, and China is ranked first among countries with the largest production of passenger cars in 2018.

As you can see, the growth of the production and sale of vehicles in China have increased rapidly. Its interesting to see that almost all of the leading bestselling cars in China are the product of joint ventres with foreign manufacturers.

Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation (SAIC) has an ongoing cooperation with General Motors (GM). SAIC-GM manufactures and sells Chevrolet, Buick and Cadillac brand automobiles in Mainland China. When the sales drop in China, so it does in the U.S.

Export from China also dropped 6,6 percent YoY to $185 billion in March 2020, compared with marked estimates of a 14 percent fall and after a 17 percent plunge in January-February combined amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

Among the the biggest trade partners, exports fell to the U.S by -20,8 percent. Considering the first quarter of 2020, exports declined 13,3 percent from a year earlier.

However, China`s long term growth potential will not be affected by the short term fallout of the coronavirus pandemic, as the country`s economic fundamentals remain unchanged, the authorities said.

To contact the author of this story: Ket Garden at post@shinybull.com

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