Investors don`t like higher rates. Normally, the higher the rates go the lower the stock market goes. The Fed needs to do something with the inflation, and raising rates is a tool they use, and this year they seem to be very aggressive.
In March, the Fed raised the fed-funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point, and that was the first increase in three years. Two months later, they raised the rates by another half-point. The Federal Open Market Committee has a meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, so what now?
Experts claim the rate hike can be 50 points, but it can also go to 0,75% or as much as 1,00%
Nasdaq is already in a recession, and S&P 500 jumped into that territory a few days ago. Investors fear the Fed will be more aggressive than expected, as they are opting for the first three-quarter-point increase in the Fed-funds rate since 1994. That was 28 years ago.
Raising the rate 75 points or more is not what we often see, and the last time we saw that happen was in November 1994. The Fed hiked rates many times that year to try to fix the inflation. The problem for the Fed is that if they raise the rates too much and too fast, a recession can occur.
The Fed will look at Unemployment, GDP, and inflation. So, where do we go from here? The Fed Funds futures are now at a rate of 3,05% for December 2022, and it will peak at 3,65% for July 2023. As you can see, there is more hawkish Fed to come.
Will the Fed sacrifice employment and growth to bring down inflation? The higher the rate is, the more expensive the money is for borrowers. This means that people will save more as they borrow less. That can lead to slower growth and lower prices and inflation.
The risk here is that this will lead to a recession. Corporations’ earnings will fall, and so can the stock market. Let`s listen to FOMC and Powell on Wednesday.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shinybull.com. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; however, neither Shinybull.com nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. Shinybull.com and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.
Historians do not fully agree on the starting and end of the «cold war», but the period is generally considered to span from the announcement of the Truman Doctrine on 12 March 1947 to the dissolution of the Soviet Union on 26 December 1991.
At the end of the cold war, corporations rushed into Russia and opened their businesses, and one of them was McDonald`s. They opened their first restaurant in Pushkin Square in Moscow on January 31, 1990. The same day they opened, thousands were lined up to try the new tasty burgers. And that ladies and gentlemen were synonymous with Capitalism, and its arrival symbolized Soviet Union`s impending demise. On May 16, 2022, McDonald`s announced that it was leaving Russia.
Now, McDonald`s is selling all of its 850 restaurants in Russia after Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine. After 80 years of socialism, people in Russia rushed to McDonald`s and the American culture. The new Western way of eating. But now people in Russia rush to the new Russian burgers at the new Russian fast-food chain called Vkusno & Tochka, which means «tasty and that`s it».
Founded by businessman Alexander Govor, who acquired all the restaurants for an undisclosed sum. But he said he paid «far lower than market price.» Govor has been a McDonald`s franchisee since 2015 when he agreed to open 20 restaurants through his business GiD LLC.
Govor also made a lot of money in mining and oil refining in Siberia. He made his wealth in the coal business as co-owner of the coal mining company Yuzhkuzbassugol, in his hometown of Novokuznetsk. He bought the mine together with Evraz during liberalization in the 1990s under President Boris Yeltsin.
Evraz bought out Govor from the company, and one of the owners is Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich (Chelsea FC).
When McDonald`s opened their first restaurant in Russia, it had this slogan: «If you can`t go to America, come to McDonald`s in Moscow.» That slogan is over and out, and in comes Vkusno & Tochka`s new slogan; «The name changes – love stays».
Most of the things in the restaurants are similar to McDonald`s. The same quality, and taste. The same equipment and the same double cheeseburgers. The difference is that most of the money goes to Russia. Not America anymore.
Many people in Russia wanted to take part in the opening of the new fast-food chain, and the rebranding marked a new era in Russia on Sunday last week. The last big mac has finally left Russia.
Govor will pay about 60,000 Russian McDonald`s employees for the next two years, according to the agreement with McDonald`s. In the same agreement, he also agreed to pay suppliers and landlords.
Govor`s company will invest 7 billion rubles ($125 million) into the new business in 2022.
By the way: McDonald`s has the right to buy back its restaurants within 15 years, but «they made it clear to me that they would not buy back», Govor said. Really?
The S&P 500 plummeted -by 3,88% on Monday, but shares of Mcdonald’s outperformed the market, jumped +0,39% and closed «only» $32 below its 52-week high at $271,15.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shinybull.com. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; however, neither Shinybull.com nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. Shinybull.com and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.
This is a warning. 3810 is a very critical level at the S&P 500, and futures are down more than 2% today. We`re flirting with a support level of around 3,900, but the real panic can set in at around 34,000. What is that supposed to mean? It means that the S&P 500 will go down in a bear market. And that is a sign of stocks that are going down in value.
Since 1928 and the big stock market crash, the S&P 500 has plummeted into a bear market 26 times. A bear market is where the market is down more than 20% or more than that in a two-month period.
Not only that. A bear market can also be part of a recession where the economy has high unemployment and negative GDP output.
The average decline in a bear market was 35,6% since 1928, and the average length of time was 289 days.
Again; this is a very critical level.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shinybull.com. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; however, neither Shinybull.com nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. Shinybull.com and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.
President Joe Biden tweeted this on Monday: «At the time I took office about 16 months ago, the economy had stalled and COVID was out of control. Today, thanks to the economic plan and the vaccination plan that my Administration put into action, America has achieved the most robust recovery in modern history.»
At the same time, we see that 83% of Americans describe the state of the economy as poor or not so good, according to a poll by Wall Street Journal. Biden`s poll numbers are also below those of Donald Trump. Not only that.
Another poll shows that 35% of Americans are not satisfied with their financial situation, which is the worst result in 50 years.
Biden often said that Trump was the worst president in history and an existential threat to the nation`s democracy. I wonder what he is saying about himself right now? It must be a bitter pill for an anti-Trump politician like Biden to be outclassed by the 45th president.
On April 2, Biden`s approval rating was 40% while Trump`s was at 50% the same day in 2018. Instead of gaslighting voters, Biden should clean up the messes and fix the inflation asap.
Trump`s vision was lower taxes, but president Joe Biden turned that upside down. People are paying more tax under Biden, than under Trump. On top of that, people must pay more money for their products, which is a hidden tax and makes people`s money less valuable.
Higher gas prices are good for oil companies but very bad for people and the economy. In the long run, it could kill the economy, and today, gas prices in the U.S hit a new record high of $4,91 a gallon (average price). In California, the price is $6,37 a gallon. People don`t like it, but Biden says everything is fine.
Something must be wrong here because there is a huge disconnect between president Biden and the people. And that isn`t good for the democrats at all. If this continues, GOP can win big in the mid-term election in November.
Another poll shows that the GOP is in the best midterm position in 80 years (2 pts lead), according to CNN.
Not even Liberal Media is ignoring Biden`s crisis anymore. They are also lukewarm on his potential second term.
Earlier today, Biden tweeted this: «The fact is America is in a stronger economic position today than just about any other country in the world. Independent experts have even projected that the U.S economy could grow faster than China`s economy this year. That hasn`t happened since 1976».
People`s lives are worse under Biden than under Trump. But people voted for Biden. They asked for it. They got what they asked for. Higher taxes, and inflation. President Joe Biden is the most popular president in U.S history. He got more votes than Obama and Clinton.
On the day he was inaugurated, Biden said; «Today, we celebrate the triumph not of a candidate, but of cause, the cause of democracy. The will of the people has been heard and the will of the people has been heeded.»
The love for Joe Biden was huge in the Hate Trump Media, on the day Biden was inaugurated. «The reason Biden has to do this is that he`s just so incredibly popular,» Don Lemon said on CNN at that time. «The lights from Lincoln Memorial were like Joe Biden`s arms stretching out to all American,» CNN said.
Axios said at that time in January 2021, Biden is charting an economic policy that was visible to the left of Bill Clinton and Barrack Obama. Biden proposed a $1,9 trillion economic stimulus plan and a $15 minimum wage at that time, and employers, employees, and economists warned it will kill millions of jobs.
We are living in times with a lot of challenges, and more trouble is on the way. Famine is probably the most serious one. Chairman and Chief Executive of JPMorgan Chase & Co, Jamie Dimon, said a few days ago that we all must brace for U.S economic «hurricane» due to inflation. Earlier he said storm clouds looming over the U.S economy, but he has changed the rhetoric.
Right now, it`s kind of sunny, and things are doing fine, but the hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way, Dimon said. We just don`t know if it`s a minor one or Superstorm Sandy, he added.
The Fed is under pressure with inflation that is more than three times its 2% target, and that has caused a jump in the cost of living for Americans. It faces the difficult task of dampening demand enough to curb inflation while not causing a recession.
Dimon urged the Fed to take forceful measures to avoid tipping the world`s biggest economy into a recession.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shinybull.com. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; however, neither Shinybull.com nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. Shinybull.com and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.
As a former professional deejay, I spend a lot of time on music. But I`m also interested in other people`s tastes in music. I`m an uncle to four teenagers and I find it strange to hear that all of them are often listening to old music. Very often from the ’80s.
I very often say; «who`s playing that song?». What? Do you like that song? Yes, teenagers like a lot of old music. Sometimes more than new and so-called popular songs which are newly released. I very often think for myself that new popular songs aren`t good enough, but it seems like young people share my opinion.
Don`t get me wrong. I like new music, but I must admit that it isn`t many good ones. So, very often I`m listening to old music, and most of it is from the ’70s and ’80s. I very often ask myself why there was so much good music from that era? This is also a time when I used to work as a professional DJ.
The ’80s was a time for the free world and free trade. Republicans like Thatcher and Reagan had a lot to say at that time. I find it very interesting and think that it can be a hidden connection here.
It was a time with so much energy. People were smiling and dancing, and they had so much fun. The «king of pop» was the biggest of all the biggest, and he is still my favorite. Later on, Witney Houston came on the top lists as well. Two superstars with so many skills.
But, all of it came to an end. Michael Jackson got into a hell of a lot of trouble, and so did Witney Houston. Jackson spent more time in the court than in the studio. People didn`t have much fun the same way anymore, and we saw a shift in the market. Out with Jackson and Houston and in with Eminem.
And so is it today. It isn`t many skills like Jackson and Houston, but more like «keep-it-in-the-closet» rap songs like Eminem. I`m not a big fan of it, but it seems to me that you don`t need many skills to reach the top today.
According to MBW, catalog music claimed 73,1% of the US music consumption market in the second half of 2021. This is in line with my observations. People are listening to old music. Not new releases.
Across the whole of 2021, catalog music actually claimed 69,8% of Total Album Consumption in the U.S.
The best-selling artist in 2021 was Adele (traditional album sales, not including streaming). But, unfortunately, the biggest success story in the U.S had nothing to do with a new release: it was catalog music.
Catalog records accounted for a stunning 82,1% of total recorded music consumption in the U.S in the second half of 2021.
Current records made up just 17,9% of U.S music consumption in the last months of 2021. That`s less than a fifth of the market.
Not only that; total consumption (sales plus streams) of current music actually fell, in real terms, by 37,4% in the second half of 2021 compared to the same period of 2020. This is exactly in line with my observations.
So, in the year 2021, the total on-demand streaming volume in the U.S increased 9,9% YoY to 1,13 trillion. And total album consumption saw a YoY increase of 11,3%.
So, people are listening to more music, and the market is growing, but the shrinking presence of new music in the U.S record industry may leave some frontline record labels scratching their heads.
At the same time; catalog music acquisition specialists are smiling from ear to ear. Especially Hipgnoses Song Management has, using cash from its Blackstone-backed private fund, acquired the song catalog of superstar artist and songwriter Justin Timberlake.
Hipgnosis says it has acquired «100% of all of Timberlake`s copyright, ownership and financial interests of the Writer and Publisher`s share of Public Performance income, and the catalog of musical compositions written by Justin Timberlake.
Justin Timberlake’s sales are currently in excess of over 150 million, including 88 million as a solo artist and 70 million with NSYNC. Timberlake sold everything to Hipgnosis and its $1 billion-backed Blackstone fund. Wow. What a deal.
In March, Hipgnosis Song Management announced the acquisition of a career-spanning catalog created by legendary Canadian artist and composer Leonard Cohen. But Timberlake and Cohen is not alone.
Bob Dylan has also sold his music catalog for $400 million, and it is a trend among top artists. Bruce Springsteen did it. Neil Young, Stevie Nicks, David Bowie, Dire Straits, John Lennon, Fleetwood Mac, and Shakira did the same.
40,000 new songs are being uploaded to Spotify every single day, but who cares? People are listening to old music and that market is skyrocketing.
Let me end this story by saying this: Good music is good business. That`s it.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shinybull.com. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; however, neither Shinybull.com nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. Shinybull.com and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.
Ket Garden
Business, Politics, Finans 