Tag Archives: McDonald`s

Uber is offering 180 million shares for $44 and $50 and that will value the company at about $84 billion

The stock market is declining while the IPO market is hotter than ever this week. At least 15 IPO deals are expected to be priced this week and this is the biggest week since 2015. What most investors are focusing on now is Uber which is the biggest U.S company deal since Facebook in 2012.

Uber is finish with its roadshow in London, Boston and San Francisco, and the company is expected to price the sale on Thursday this week. The demand for the stock is strong and investors have put in orders for at least three times the amount of stock on offer.

Uber can raise as much as $9 billion and if that happen it will be the largest this year. It`s not clear what the price for stock will be but I think that the turmoil in the market at the moment will have an impact of the price range.

Uber is offering 180 million shares for $44 and $50 and that will value the company at about $84 billion. They have $11 billion in revenue and about $50 billion in gross bookings. Like Lyft, they have big operating losses.

Last year, Uber lost $3,03 billion in the 12 months through March. This is the largest loss ever for a U.S startup in the year before an IPO, and they have a lot of challenges.

More than 82% of the revenue comes from ridesharing while 13% comes from food delivery. Uber has a deal with McDonalds and used to get a 20% commission on deliveries. McDonalds renegotiatied the deal, and now Uber gets a 15% commission.

Chief Executive Dara Khosrowshahi is trying to sell Wall Street his vision that Uber will become the dominant force in all forms of transportation. But the competition is intense in many places around the globe.

China have its own Didi Chuxing while India has Zomato and Swiggy for food delivery. Didi is also in Latin America where they compete with Doordash, and all of them in the food delivery business.

Uber and Lyft drivers are planning a strike from 7 am to 9 am on Wednesday to protest their wages, their treatment as independent contractors rather than employees, and the lack of regulation governing the new sector.

Drivers have challenged the ride-sharing companies many times for refusing to deem them employees, which means they are responsible for maintenance of their own vehicles as well as gas and insurance, which greatly reduces the amount they can earn per hour.

Their competitor Lyft went public in April this year and entered the market with its IPO price of $72 per share. The stock soared on their debut but it came down again as IPO`s usually does, and now the stock is trading about 16 percent below its IPO price.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Taco vs Burger

McDonald`s have underperformed for some time now, and the chain have also had some problems lately. Some of the critics have been that their menu is expansive and confusing. The employees at McDonald`s say their menu is too long which is leading to slower turnover times and longer lines resulting in lost business during meal rushes.

The latest problem is racism. Some black people were fired at McDonald`s being told that there were too many black people at work, lawsuit claims. A previous manager at McDonald`s said she was fired because she was black. She said one of her supervisors would regularly make inflammatory comments to her, such as “We need to get the ghetto out of the store.”

Another problem they have is people sitting there for hours. It could be unemployed people or poor people paying for their cheap burgers, and all this is not good news for McDonald`s Corporation. In addition; people tend to think that McDonald`s do have unhealthy food.

The company has seen declining company wide sales since the summer last year. Last month McDonald`s announced a menu overhaul to address its lackluster performance. The fast food joint also launched a massive marketing campaign to enhance its image.

U.S comparable sales were down 4,6% YoY in November and in October U.S comps dropped by 1% YOY. The past few monthly sales numbers have led to lower estimates for the upcoming quarter.

As the demand for McDonald`s is declining others are rising, and McDonald`s saw that many years ago. That`s why they bought shares at Chipotle Mexican Grill. Folks are flocking to the restaurant with their mexican taco food on the menu.

CMG 2015

As you can see on the chart above, the stock price has skyrocketed. I can understand why McDonald`s bought shares in that company. CMG`s stock price was $40 in 2008, and now it is $719,21. Up about 1000% in a few years.

People tend to think that Sushi is healthy food, but it isn`t. It is too much rice and sugar and that will make you fat. Rice and sugar are «No-food». Mexican food is «Yes-food». People want healthy food and that`s why they like CMG. That`s also why McDonald`s started to sell salad. Among the best thing you can eat on this planet, but McDonald`s is not a salad chain. Do they have an image problem?

CMG will report FQ4 results in Feb 03, and the conference call is scheduled to begin at 04:30 pm ET. Consensus view is EPS of $3,77 on revenue of $1,07B.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

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McDonald`s is growing

McDonald`s (MCD) is growing but that is slowly. It`s share price moved only 8% in 2013, and McDonald`s rewarded its shareholders with a 10% increase to its dividend. The surged 4% YTD. They delivered a high return on equity and their growth in its top and bottom lines was decent.

MCD

McDonald`s holds a market share of 31% in the fast food industry. How can McDonald`s continue to grow? Because the domestic market is saturated, they are now expanding in emerging markets, particularly China, where they have a great opportunity.

The U.S fast food industry is expected to grow 10% during the period of 2013 – 2018. Emerging markets are attractive to fast food players due to their large populations, fast population growth, concentration of younger consumers and growing demand for Western diets.

China is important for McDonald`s and it is the third largest market for the company after the U.S and Japan. They holds a 15% market share of China`s fast food market. They experience a strong growth in the region.

China`s fast food & takeaway market grew 80% from 2007 – 2012 to RMB 1 trillion ($162 billion). The market is expected to hit RMB 1,8 trillion ($292 billion) by 2017. All this is driven by economic growth in China, and McDonald`s is investing heavily in China to benefit from this growing market.

McDonald`s will open 1,600 new restaurants around the globe and spend $3 billion this year. China will get one of the biggest shares. They will open 300 locations in China, and that`s up from 250 last year and quadruple the number in 2004. Their goal is to have more than 2,000 restaurants in China by the end of 2014.

McDonald`s share price and earnings have underperformed relative to the S&P 500 and restaurants peers over the last 12 months. Have a look at the chart below. I have compared McDonald`s and S&P 500 so you could see by yourself.

MCD vs SPX

(Picture: McDonald`s vs S&P 500)

In my opinion; both McDonald’s and Burger King is now trying to be everything for everyone. Can you imagine Burger King selling you a salad? Or a wrap? Come on; what`s next? For all I know, they will start to sell sushi next week. In-N-Out Burger, Chick-fil-A and Five Guys haven`t changed their menu in years. A big menu is making McDonald`s slower.

Many switch to restaurants perceived as more natural, simple and healthy, like Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) or Taco Bell which is built on this trend. McDonald’s franchisees lose out and this will be a slowly process as franchisee satisfaction is driven so largely by cash flow. McDonald’s need to take drastic action on their meny complexity and food integrity. Before that I expect the share price to languish.

Reports today:

10:30 a.m EST Crude Oil Inventories
01:01 a.m EST 10-y Bond Auction
02:00 a.m EST Fedral Budget Balance

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

 

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