Tag Archives: S&P 500

Kamala Harris attacked Donald Trump with lies

Kamala Harris made a speech at the DNC convention party this week, and she warned about the chaos in the White House if Trump is elected. The consequences will be serious, she said. And Michelle Obama mocked Trump`s «black jobs» remark.

What planet are they living on? And who in the world believed all this BS? Trumps Tax cut and Jobs Act of 2017 lowered the corporate tax rate from 35% and stimulated business investments, and economic growth. This also included tax cuts for individuals.

Kamala Harris and Joe Biden did the opposite. They increased the taxes. Increased the cost of living, and the inflation skyrocketed. People today, say they had a better life under Trump than they have under Biden and Harris today.

The tax cuts had a huge impact on the society. The U.S. saw significant job growth, with unemployment reaching a 50-year low of 3,5% in February 2020. This included record-low unemployment rates for African Americans, Hispanics, and women.

As a result of all that Trump has done, the stock market saw substantial gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 reacting record-highs during his term, which benefited investors and retirement accounts.

Trump stands for Peace and Prosperity, and Trump is the only president in many decades that haven`t started a war. The Trump administration brokered the Abraham Accords, which led to normalization agreements between Israel and several Arab nations.

Not only that. Trump is also the man who pushed for NATO allies to increase their defense spending arguing that the U.S was bearing too much of the financial burden. By the end of his term, several NATO countries had increased their contribution.

Not only that. Trump is a businessman, and he knows how things are working in the business-world. He renegotiated NAFTA, leading to the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which aimed to create more balanced trade terms for the U.S.

He also implemented tariffs and took a tough stance on China to address trade imbalances and protect American industries. This only a few things Trump did only because he wants to «Make America Great Again».

But Kamala Harris is not a businessman. Nor a businesswoman. She`s a lawyer. And in her speech, she was talking more about Trump than her own policies. Kamala Harris has made statements suggesting that Donald Trump acts primarily in his own self-interest. (Can you believe that?).

During her campaign as Joe Biden`s running mate in 2020, Harris frequently criticized Trump`s leadership and policies. In one of her statements, she said: «Donald Trump has been doing everything to benefit himself and his wealthy friends,» reflecting her view that Trump`s actions as president were motivated by personal gain rather than the broader interest of the American people.

The critique was part of her broader argument that Trump`s administration favored the wealthy and powerful at the expense of working-class Americans and marginalized communities. Harris and Biden both campaigned on the promise of more inclusive and equitable leadership, contrasting their approach with what they described as Trump`s self-serving tendencies.

This is extremely embarrassing because the Democrats have controlled the U.S. in 12 years out of 16. Trump controlled it for 4 years. But what`s strange to me is that Kamala Harris and the Democrats are blaming Trump for all the problems they have in the U.S. This is unbelievable.

As a Vice President, Kamala Harris could have done something about all the problems she is blaming Trump for, but she has been invisible. Most people in the U.S. do not know who she is and what she stands for.

Blaming Trump for all the problems is not a good sign, and the question of whether Kamala Harris would be the right person to serve as President of the United States is subjective and depends on one`s political views, priorities, and perspectives on leadership qualities.

Harris`s approval rating has been mixed, and she has faced criticism from both sides of the political spectrum. Some voters question her effectiveness as Vice President and her ability to lead the nation.

Some critics have pointed out that Harris`s communication style can be perceived as unclear or overly caoutious, leading to questions about her ability to effectively convey her message and rally public support.

Kamala Harris has made statements that have been subject to public scrutiny and criticism. Some of these statements have been characterized by critics as confusing, awkward, or «stupid.» Here is a statement that has been discussed or mocked:

«WE MUST, TOGETHER, WORK TOGETHER TO SEE WHERE WE ARE, WHERE WE ARE HEADED, WHERE WE ARE GOING, AND OUR VISION FOR WHERE WE SHOULD BE, BUT ALSO SEE IT AS A MOMENT, YES, TO TOGETHER ADDRESS THE CHALLENGES AND TO WORK ON THE OPPORTUNITIES.»

This statement, made during a speech in 2022, was criticized for its redundancy and lack of clarity. Here is another one:

«Ukraine is a country in Europe. It exists next to another country called Russia. Russia is a bigger country. Russia is a powerful country. Russia decided to invade a smaller country called Ukraine. So, basically, that`s wrong.»

What about this one:

«We are the United States of America because we are united…….because we are states.»

This comment, made during a public appearance, was mocked for stating the obvious in an awkward manner. What about this one:

«I think that there can be no higher priority than what we have been clear is our highest priority.»

Kamala Harris has a huge communication problem as she lacks Obama`s skills. The Democrats have a huge problem if this is an «Operation Female Obama project,»

Joe Biden`s farewell speech at the DNC on August 19, 2024, received mixed reviews as well. Some critics felt the speech lacked a clear vision for the future, especially in comparison to the forward-looking speeches typically expected at such events. This was seen as a missed opportunity to rally the party around a successor or new ideas.

Normally, the polls should make a huge bump by at least 10 points after a meeting with speeches like that, but not this time. Trump is still leading the polls, but Rasmussen Report says it`s going to be a close race.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shinybull.com. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; however, neither Shinybull.com nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. Shinybull.com and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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The bear is here

This is a warning. 3810 is a very critical level at the S&P 500, and futures are down more than 2% today. We`re flirting with a support level of around 3,900, but the real panic can set in at around 34,000. What is that supposed to mean? It means that the S&P 500 will go down in a bear market. And that is a sign of stocks that are going down in value.

Since 1928 and the big stock market crash, the S&P 500 has plummeted into a bear market 26 times. A bear market is where the market is down more than 20% or more than that in a two-month period.

Not only that. A bear market can also be part of a recession where the economy has high unemployment and negative GDP output.

The average decline in a bear market was 35,6% since 1928, and the average length of time was 289 days.

Again; this is a very critical level.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shinybull.com. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; however, neither Shinybull.com nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. Shinybull.com and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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If this a an average bear market we will se it bounce very soon

It has been a brutal stock sell off in December and so far in 2019, and MSM is telling you that we are officially in a bear market. It seems like the market is pricing in a recession, but it can be too early to say so.

The 10-year Treasury remain below 3 percent and the FED shouldn`t raise rates for the 10th time in 2019. If they push the hold button, I think the market will be happy and bullish again. Just look at the healthy job market and the strength of the U.S economy.

December 2018 was the worst December for the Dow since 1931, but if we avoid a recession I think investors are lucky to have a lot of cheap stocks. It is a China-U.S trade war, and the global economy is in a growth slowdown, but that doesn`t automatically mean recession.

We can see a support for the S&P 500 very soon, and this is also a point were investors pay for their insurance. And that is also a point were the bear market ends. Technical analysis tells us that if this is the right thing right now, a drop to around 2,300 points would likely spark a bounce from here.

Statistically, the average bear market stops right after, or right before it officially began. It remain to see that this is happening again. A closer look at the 48-month SMA, the market failed to bounce in August 2008 which led to the biggest drop since the Great Depression. The same happened in 2001.

Is this drop a new 2001 or 2008? If not, we can see a support just like it did in 1987, 1990 and 2016. The S&P 500 has lost 20,2 percent, and the Dow is down 19,4 percent, while Nasdaq is down 23,9 percent. The Russell 2000 is down 27,3 percent, so the coming days will be interesting. Anyway; this a great moment for day traders.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

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S&P 500 P/E ratio is 24,34 and the bull market is similar to the 50`s

The bull market continues and the S&P 500 went up in April, May, June and July. So, «Sell in May and go away» would be a disaster for any investor on this planet this year. Just like it was in the 50`s under president Eisenhower. This is not a normal situation in the midterm election.

As you can see from the chart below, similar situation happened in 1954 and 1958. Apple Inc is a big contributor to the bullish market right now, and it just hit a $1 trillion market cap. A milestone we have never seen before for a U.S publicly traded company.

Not only Apple Inc are hitting milestones. Many of the stock exchanges around the world are also hitting now all-time highs. But how expensive are the U.S stocks? The P/E ratio of the S&P 500 has fluctuated from a low of around 6x in 1949 to over 120x in 2009.

The long-term average P/E for the S&P 500 is around 15x, meaning that the stocks that make up the index collectively command a premium 15 times greater than their weighted average earnings.

The trailing P/E ration will change as the price of a company`s stock moves, since earnings are only released each quarter while stocks trade day in and day out. Current S&P 500 PE ratio are down -0,13 percent on Thursday 2 August 2018 (based on trailing twelve month) to 24,34.

Some investors prefer forward P/E which is similar to the trailing P/E, but uses estimates of projected future earnings, typically forecast over the next twelve months. If the forward P/E ratio is lower than the trailing P/E ratio, it means analysts are expecting earnings to increase. If it is higher, analysts expect a decrease in earnings.

These measures are often used when trying to gauge the overall value of a stock index, such as the S&P 500 since these longer term measures can compensate for changes in the business cycle.

A business cycle describes the rise and fall in production output of goods and services in an economy. Business cycles are generally measured using rise and fall in real inflation-adjusted GDP, which includes output from the household and nonprofit sector and the government sector, as well as business output.

Output cycle is therefore a better description of what is measured. The business or output cycle should not be confused with market cycles, measured using broad stock market indices; or the debt cycle, referring to the rise and fall in household and government debt.

To put it into perspective. Apple`s P/E is 18,04. Facebook; 24,56. Netflix; 144,43. Amazon; 165,60. Yelp; 625,17. Groupon; 230,15. Godaddy; 227,27. Under Armour; 136,36. Alibaba; 48,25. S&P 500 is 24,34, so how expensive are they all?

It looks like Amazon are expensive, but that company is up 84,75 percent YoY, while Apple with its 18,14 is up only 35,26 percent. Facebook has lost a lot of money in a few days, and the stock is up only 5,45 percent YoY. Estimated P/E for Tesla in 2019 is – 177,68. The stock went up over 16 percent on Thursday.

Investors need to be aware that the P/E ratio can be misleading a lot of times, especially when the underlying business is cyclical and unpredictable. Cyclical businesses have higher profit margins at the peaks of the business cycles. Their earnings are high and P/E ratios are artificially low. It is usually a bad idea to buy a cyclical business when the P/E is low. A better ratio to identify the time to buy a cyclical businesses is the P/S ratio.

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This is the best start for the S&P 500 in nearly 20 years

What a great start of the year 2018. The best weekly gain in more than a year and the bull market continue to surprise many investors. Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped over 25,000 and nearly all of the 100 companies in the Nasdaq rose.

It is also the best start for the S&P 500 since 1999. Analysts forecasts looks pretty good and economic fundamentals are strong enough to lift the stocks higher. President Trump`s tax cut will also be good for the stock market.

It is difficult to find any reasons for a backdrop in the market. A rate hike or two wont stop investors to continue the party. What they really like is Mr Trump`s lower corporate taxes and that will not only help the U.S but also the global economic growth.

U.S stocks are looking good but European stock look even better. A great rally in European stocks so far is based on growth data for the Euro Zone. Services PMI data showed the Euro area was near its best growth in 7 years.

It has been a boost for STOXX 600 and we can thank European banks like Bank Santander and BNP Paribas for that. The outlook for European equities looks good and it is estimated a close to 10% earnings growth in 2018.

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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