Tag Archives: Inflation

The cost of living and the blame game

People are angry, and that’s why they voted for Mamdani as the next Mayor of New York.
People are sick and tired of struggling to make ends meet. In his victory speech, Mamdani said:

“We choose hope over tyranny. Hope over big money and small ideas. Hope over despair. Tonight, we have stepped out from the old into the new.”

His supporters are already marching in the streets, saying they don’t want Trump as a king or a dictator.

Hmm… I think I’ve heard this before.

More than two thousand years ago, in Rome, another man was accused of wanting to be king.
His name was Julius Caesar.

A group of Roman senators assassinated Caesar out of fear that his growing power and titles, especially dictator for life, would destroy the Roman Republic.
They claimed they were saving democracy, but their actions plunged Rome into chaos and civil war.

It was a betrayal that changed history, and a reminder of how fear, power, and instability often go hand in hand.

History Repeats Itself

Fast forward to France, 1848. The people were exhausted. Food prices were soaring, unemployment was rising, and inequality had reached unbearable levels.
King Louis Philippe I, once known as the Citizen King, had promised a fairer, more modern France. But over time, his government became detached from ordinary people’s struggles.

One of the main sources of anger was the tax system. The poor and working class bore a heavy burden through indirect taxes on essentials like food, salt, and fuel, while wealthy landowners and property owners paid relatively little. Voting rights were also tied to property ownership, meaning most citizens had no political voice. When food prices spiked in the late 1840s, ordinary people were paying high taxes on top of already expensive necessities. Economic frustration reached a tipping point.

People in New York voted for Mamdani, who wants to raise taxes and, at the same time, give people fast and free buses. How is that going to be?

When protests erupted in February 1848, the king tried to silence them. Instead, the anger exploded.
Barricades filled the streets of Paris, and after just a few bloody days, Louis Philippe abdicated the throne and fled to England in disguise.

The monarchy collapsed. The Second Republic was born.
But what came next? A new leader. Louis-Napoleon Bonaparte, nephew of Napoleon I, rose to power, promising to restore stability and hope. Within four years, he declared himself Emperor.

Sound familiar?

It’s the same old story: people rise up against a system they believe is unjust, only to end up under a new one that looks strangely similar.
Each era has its slogans: “liberty,” “hope,” “change,” “the people’s revolution”, yet the same problems remain. Prices go up. Ordinary citizens struggle. The rich adapt and survive.

Take a look at France today with its Yellow Vest protesters. People are struggling with their cost of living. I wrote an article about that for the first time, many years ago. And who is to blame now? The King? Napoleon? No, it`s Macron.

So, Why Are Prices Rising Again?

The cost of living has become the defining issue of our time. Food, housing, and energy prices are rising faster than wages. Families feel squeezed, not just in New York or Paris, but across the Western world.

But who is to blame?

It’s tempting to point the finger at politicians, corporations, or billionaires. Yet the truth is more complex. The problem isn’t one person. It’s the system itself.

A mix of factors drives today’s inflation:

  • Global supply chain disruptions from the pandemic and wars.
  • Energy shocks as the world shifts away from fossil fuels.
  • Corporate pricing power in markets where competition has shrunk.
  • Decades of easy money and debt have inflated asset prices but left wages behind.

Governments print money to stimulate the economy, corporations raise prices to protect profits, and central banks hike interest rates to cool inflation, all while ordinary people pay the price.

It’s a cycle that keeps repeating, no matter the century. In ancient Rome, it was grain shortages. In 1848, in France, it was bread and taxes. Today, it’s rent and electricity.

The Real Lesson

Historically, when people struggle, they often look for someone to blame, such as a king, a tyrant, or a president. Get rid of Trump, and everything will be fine. Get rid of Macron, and the sun will shine. They think removing the person will fix the system. But as history shows us, that rarely works.

Trump isn’t the cause of America’s problems. He’s a symptom of them.
Just as Caesar wasn’t the reason Rome was collapsing, but rather the outcome of deep divisions and economic inequality that had built up for years.

When the cost of living becomes unbearable, people revolt. Sometimes at the ballot box, sometimes in the streets.

But unless we learn from history, each “revolution” just sets the stage for the next crisis.

In the end, it’s not about kings or dictators. It’s about systems.
And if we don’t fix the system, the anger, fear, and struggle will continue. Just as it has for more than 2,000 years.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shinybull.com. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; however, neither Shinybull.com nor the author can guarantee the accuracy of this information. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. Shinybull.com and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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What will happen in the stock and crypto market if the FED cuts the interest rates?

Investors are watching the FED on Wednesday, and they are all but certain the FED will cut interest rates. But how much? 25 points or 50 points? That`s the real big debate among investors right now. But regardless, what will happen to the stock and crypto market if the FED cuts the rates?

There is more than 60% probability that the FED will cut the rates by 50 basis points. When the FED cuts interest rates, it typically impacts the stock market in several key ways.

Lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for companies, which can lead to higher profitability due to cheaper access to capital. This generally encourages investment in stocks, driving prices higher. Sectors like technology and consumer discretionary tend to benefit the most from lower rates as they are more reliant on borrowing for growth.

Reduced rates also make loans and mortgages cheaper for consumers and businesses, encouraging spending and investment. This increased spending can lead to economic growth, which is positive for corporate earnings and stock prices.

In addition, growth stocks, especially in tech and innovation, often outperform because their future earnings are more heavily impacted by interest rates. Lower rates increase the present value of their future earnings, making them more attractive to investors.

At the same time, bond yields typically fall, making bonds less attractive compared to stocks. Investors may shift their portfolios from bonds to equities in search of better returns, which can push stock prices higher.

On top of all that, the risk appetite increase. Lower rates often reduce the returns on safer investments like savings accounts or Treasury bonds. As a result, investors may take on more risk by moving into stocks, which offer the potential for higher returns.

But keep in mind, that market reactions can vary!

What happens in the market is also psychology, and you will never know where the rabbit is jumping. A lot of investors are full of recession fears. If the FED cuts rates in response to a slowing economy or recession concerns, the stock market might react negatively if investors see the rate cut as a sign of underlying economic trouble.

On top of that, you have a lot of inflation concerns. If rate cuts are perceived to spur excessive inflation, it could lead to volatility in markets, especially if inflation erodes corporate profit margins.

In summary, while rate cuts generally boost the stock market, the context and economic conditions surrounding the decision play a crucial role in determining the actual market response. Not only that. It can also have a notable impact on the crypto market, similar to how it affects traditional financial markets.

The risk appetite in the crypto market will increase. Lower interest rates typically reduce returns on low-risk assets like bonds and savings accounts. This often leads investors to seek higher returns in riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies. As a result, crypto prices, particularly for Bitcoin and Ethereum, could rise as investors move capital into digital assets.

A rate cut can also weaken the U.S. dollar, as lower rates make the currency less attractive to foreign investors. Cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, are often seen as a hedge against currency devaluation. A weaker dollar could boost demand for Bitcoin and other digital currencies as an alternative store of value.

Improved liquidity comes on top of all this. Lower borrowing costs mean individuals and businesses can access cheaper captal. Increased liquidity in financial markets often benefits speculative assets like crypto, as more people can invest and trade.

Cryptocurrencies are often viewed similarly to growth stocks-assets with high potential but also high risk. Lower rates typically benefit growth sectors since the future value of earnings becomes more appealing. This may lead to surge in the crypto market.

Not only that. A FED rate cut can encourage institutions to diversify their portfolios, including moving into digital assets. As traditional investment returns diminish, institutions might allocate more to Bitcoin, Ethereum or other cryptocurrencies.

But, like the stock market, there are potential risks in the crypto market as well.

If the rate cut fuels inflation, it may lead to instability in traditional markets, which could spill over into the crypto space. Inflation could either positively affect crypto as a hedge or introduce volatility if the overall economic outlook worsens.

While rate cuts generally boost risk assets, they could signal economic weakness, which may also introduce market uncertainty. Cryptocurrencies can be highly sensitive to shifts in sentiment, reacting both positively and negatively to macroeconomic trends.

Overall, a FED rate cut is likely to boost the crypto market, especially if it leads to increased liquidity and risk-taking behavior among investors. The fear index is still below 20 (17,61) as of writing on Tuesday. Where will it end later in this week?

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shinybull.com. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; however, neither Shinybull.com nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. Shinybull.com and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Inflation is as violent as a mugger, as frightening as an armed robber, and as deadly as a hit man

Inflation is serious stuff. It makes people`s money less valuable, and it means a lot of trouble for a lot of people. But I`m not shocked, because we knew it was coming someday. I wrote about nine years ago, and here we are.

Ronald Reagan was fighting against inflation in the ’80s, and he once said;

«Inflation is as violent as a mugger, as frightening as an armed robber, and as deadly as a hit man.»

Photo by Monstera on Pexels.com

I bet Chair Powell thinks the same, as he raised the federal fund’s rate by 75 bps to the 3% – 3,25% range during its September meeting. This is the third three-quarter point increase, pushing borrowing costs to the highest since 2008.

Policymakers also anticipate that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate which was reinforced by Chair Powell during the press conference.

«We have got to get inflation behind us. I wish there were a painless way to do that. There isn`t. The so-called dot plot showed interest rates will likely reach 4,4% by December, above 3,4% projected in June, and rise to 4,6% next year.

Meanwhile, GDP growth forecasts were revised lower to show a 0,2% expansion this year, compared to 1,7% seen in June and 1,2% in 2023, below 1,7% seen in June. Inflation as measured by PCE is seen to reach 5,4% in 2022 (5,2% projected in June) and 2,8% in 2023 (vs 2,6%).

They also expect the unemployment rate to raise up to 4,4% next year. In August this year, the unemployment rate rose to 3,7%, which is the highest since February and above market expectations of 3,5%.

The number of unemployed people increased by 344 thousand to 6,014 million, while employment levels went up by 442 thousand to 158,732 million. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate rose to 62,4% in August from 62,1% in July.

The unemployment rate was about 4% right after the dot com bubble, but it rose to about 6% a few years later. In 2010, the unemployment rate rose to about 10% but it peaked at an all-time high of nearly 16% after all the lockdowns.

Banks in nearly every country (not China and Japan) are facing similar trade-offs as they raise rates to combat their own inflation problems.

The inflation rate in the US is 8,3%. In the UK it`s 9,9%. Euro Area; 9,1%. In China and Japan, the inflation rate is 2,5% and 3,0%. But this is nothing compared to Turkey where the inflation rate rose for the 15th consecutive month to 80,2% in August of 2022.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shinybull.com. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; however, neither Shinybull.com nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. Shinybull.com and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Nasdaq plummeted more than 5%

What a day in the stock market. Nasdaq plummeted 5,16%. That`s 632,84 points. Dow Jones and S&P 500 were also sharply down, followed by cryptos like Bitcoin. They all went down because the annual inflation rate in the US eased for a second straight month to 8,3% in August of 2022.

This is the lowest number in four months, so why did investors have so much panic? The rate is down from 8,5% in July. But it`s down from 9,1% in June, so, it’s on the way down. For all I know, it will continue the same path, and probably end up in the opposite direction; deflation in the long run.

The energy index increased by 23,8% (32,9% in July). Gasoline increased 25,6% (44% in July). Fuel oil increased 68,8% (75,9% in July).

Photo by Wendy Wei on Pexels.com

Natural gas increased 33% vs 30,5%, and electricity was at the highest since August 1981, at 15,8%. Prices for food rose by 11,4%, and that is the most since 1979. The shelter is up 6,2%, which is the most since 1984.

CPI, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, increased 6,3% in a year. This is the most since March, and up markedly from 5,9% in June and July.

The Federal Reserve has done a lot to push down inflation because inflation over time could have dramatic consequences for consumers. The Fed has been hawkish when it comes to interest rate hikes this year.

They try to make it expensive for consumers to borrow, and the interest rate hikes will affect consumers’ interest rates like credit cards, loans, and mortgage rates.

CPI measures changes in the cost of consumer goods and is a key indicator of just how bad inflation is.

Economists anticipated a lower CPI in August, but the index rose 0,1% from the previous month and 8,3 on an annual basis. More rate hikes from the Fed will force consumers to change their lifestyles in the future.

The Fed looks at CPI when deciding whether to raise rates or not. Experts claim that we must expect the Fed to continue to be very aggressive when it comes to rate hikes. So, fasten your seat belts.

So far this year, the central bank has already raised rates by 225 basis points, and many investors are waiting for another 75 basis point rate hike at their meeting next week.

The cost of living is increasing. Higher electricity bills, food, gasoline, and gas prices are making it difficult for many, and it isn`t easy to borrow either. The cost of borrowing is also increasing. On the other side; the rate on your saving account is also increasing.

Experts predict that we could see many more months of rampant inflation.

The Fed funds futures are pricing in a 36% chance that the bank will raise its benchmark rate by a full percentage point. Nomura forecasted a 100 basis point hike in September.

Investors don`t like Fed`s hawkishness, and they are worried that the Fed`s inflation fight will bring in a recession. On the other hand; the Fed is also ramping up the unwinding of its balance sheet to $95 billion per month.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shinybull.com. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; however, neither Shinybull.com nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. Shinybull.com and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Financial dissatisfaction hits a 50-year high in the United States of America

President Joe Biden tweeted this on Monday: «At the time I took office about 16 months ago, the economy had stalled and COVID was out of control. Today, thanks to the economic plan and the vaccination plan that my Administration put into action, America has achieved the most robust recovery in modern history.»

At the same time, we see that 83% of Americans describe the state of the economy as poor or not so good, according to a poll by Wall Street Journal. Biden`s poll numbers are also below those of Donald Trump. Not only that.

Another poll shows that 35% of Americans are not satisfied with their financial situation, which is the worst result in 50 years.

Photo by cottonbro on Pexels.com

Biden often said that Trump was the worst president in history and an existential threat to the nation`s democracy. I wonder what he is saying about himself right now? It must be a bitter pill for an anti-Trump politician like Biden to be outclassed by the 45th president.

On April 2, Biden`s approval rating was 40% while Trump`s was at 50% the same day in 2018. Instead of gaslighting voters, Biden should clean up the messes and fix the inflation asap.

Trump`s vision was lower taxes, but president Joe Biden turned that upside down. People are paying more tax under Biden, than under Trump. On top of that, people must pay more money for their products, which is a hidden tax and makes people`s money less valuable.

Higher gas prices are good for oil companies but very bad for people and the economy. In the long run, it could kill the economy, and today, gas prices in the U.S hit a new record high of $4,91 a gallon (average price). In California, the price is $6,37 a gallon. People don`t like it, but Biden says everything is fine.

Something must be wrong here because there is a huge disconnect between president Biden and the people. And that isn`t good for the democrats at all. If this continues, GOP can win big in the mid-term election in November.

Another poll shows that the GOP is in the best midterm position in 80 years (2 pts lead), according to CNN.

Not even Liberal Media is ignoring Biden`s crisis anymore. They are also lukewarm on his potential second term.

Earlier today, Biden tweeted this: «The fact is America is in a stronger economic position today than just about any other country in the world. Independent experts have even projected that the U.S economy could grow faster than China`s economy this year. That hasn`t happened since 1976».

People`s lives are worse under Biden than under Trump. But people voted for Biden. They asked for it. They got what they asked for. Higher taxes, and inflation. President Joe Biden is the most popular president in U.S history. He got more votes than Obama and Clinton.

On the day he was inaugurated, Biden said; «Today, we celebrate the triumph not of a candidate, but of cause, the cause of democracy. The will of the people has been heard and the will of the people has been heeded.»

The love for Joe Biden was huge in the Hate Trump Media, on the day Biden was inaugurated. «The reason Biden has to do this is that he`s just so incredibly popular,» Don Lemon said on CNN at that time. «The lights from Lincoln Memorial were like Joe Biden`s arms stretching out to all American,» CNN said.

Axios said at that time in January 2021, Biden is charting an economic policy that was visible to the left of Bill Clinton and Barrack Obama. Biden proposed a $1,9 trillion economic stimulus plan and a $15 minimum wage at that time, and employers, employees, and economists warned it will kill millions of jobs.

We are living in times with a lot of challenges, and more trouble is on the way. Famine is probably the most serious one. Chairman and Chief Executive of JPMorgan Chase & Co, Jamie Dimon, said a few days ago that we all must brace for U.S economic «hurricane» due to inflation. Earlier he said storm clouds looming over the U.S economy, but he has changed the rhetoric.

Right now, it`s kind of sunny, and things are doing fine, but the hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way, Dimon said. We just don`t know if it`s a minor one or Superstorm Sandy, he added.

The Fed is under pressure with inflation that is more than three times its 2% target, and that has caused a jump in the cost of living for Americans. It faces the difficult task of dampening demand enough to curb inflation while not causing a recession.

Dimon urged the Fed to take forceful measures to avoid tipping the world`s biggest economy into a recession.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shinybull.com. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; however, neither Shinybull.com nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. Shinybull.com and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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