Category Archives: Emerging markets

by | December 10, 2014 · 3:42 pm

The hottest stock market in the world

The stocks in Shanghai rebounded today, up +2,93% after a big drop yesterday. It was a global sell-off yesterday too, and many blame Shanghai for that. Others say Greece was the problem. The U.S stock market was about flat, but we saw a bigger drop in Europe, because Europe is the problem right now.

SSE

Shanghai index

The sell-off in Shanghai yesterday was huge, but necessary. Take a look at the index above. Shanghai have skyrocketed and a drop above five percent is healthy. I can`t hide the truth that Shanghai is the worlds hottest stock market right now.

The Shanghai stock market is up 35% for the year and the correction yesterday is the sharpest correction in five years, led by financials and energy. The Shanghai Index was extremely overbought. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong also fell 4,6 percent.

Investors are optimistic about the prospects for further monetary stimulus to the economy and the valuation to the projected earnings had reached the top and peaked at the highest level since July 2011.

The authorities said the growth target for next year will be 7%, and that`s down from this year`s 7,3%. This is probably one of the triggers for the market correction yesterday, but I don`t think that is enough to alter investors bullish view of the Chinese stock market in the future.

The biggest loser yesterday was financial and energy stocks, but falling oil prices is bad for oil-exporting countries and company stocks around the world, but not for China. Oil-importing countries like China will benefit from the falling oil prices.

Take a look at the technical analysis of both Shanghai and S&P 500. Shanghai peaked in October 12, 2007, at 5,903. Now it is trading just below 3,000, which means this is probably just the beginning of a new bullish trend.  S&P 500 is at the all time high.

Some people see opportunities after a correction like yesterday, but others are full of fear. Shanghai is up 2,93% today.

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | September 11, 2014 · 2:00 pm

The biggest IPO in history

I have been dealing with Alibaba for many years now, but for many other people, Alibaba is an unknown company. Alibaba is the unmatched e-commerce market leader in China. It holds about 95% of China`s C2C market (Taobao division) and more than 50% of the B2C market (Tmall division).

alibaba logo

Alibaba is set to trade under the new ticker symbol on NYSE; BABA, on friday, September 19th. I think that many will be shocked by Alibaba`s entrence in the West, because only a few investors have heard of the company.

Alibaba`s business is more profitable than Amazon and eBay put together, and the U.S`s dominance in the e-commerce sector is poised to fall with the air apparent to Amazon set to IPO. Alibaba`s IPO may herald the end of U.S E-commerce dominance.

When Alibaba enters the market in the West, the competition will increase and standardize prices around the world, which means Apple Inc can`t sell their iPhone 6 for one price in Europe and another in the U.S.

Ebay didn`t have chance to compete with Alibaba, so the decided to stop their business in China. Jack Ma said it was primarily because they wasn`t effective enough and couldn`t deliver so fast as Alibaba does.

Jack Ma is a great business man. In a letter to his shareholders he said in it, this single sentence about Alibaba`s culture, may revolutionize the way other companies do business. «I have said on numerous occasions that we will put customers first, employees second, and shareholders third».

Don`t forget those words by William Feater: The primary asset of any business is its organization, but as you already know; the customer is the God. Without any customers, you are completely dead. So, what will happen to Amazon and eBay`s customers is the big question now. Price and service are key factors now.

For every dollar in sales, Alibaba makes $0,43 in gross profit. In contrast, Amazon only manage to squeeze just $0,01 gross profit for every dollar in sales. Operating income in the three months ended June, was 42% more than the combined profit of Amazon and eBay for the same period.

Many people talk about bubbles, but this is not like what we saw in the dot-com boom in the late 90`s. Take a look at these Chinese companies which is not revenue-starved; Alibaba founded in 1999, Q2 2014: $2,54 billion in revenue. Up 46% Y/Y. Valuation; $155 billion.

Tencent founded in 1998, Q2 2014; $3,21 billion in revenue. Up 37% Y/Y, and last but not least; Baidu which is founded in 2000. Q2 2014: $1,93 billion in revenue. Up 58,8% Y/Y. This the best tech companies in China and all those three founders are the three richest in China, with Jack Ma on the top.

Ebay is out of the market in China along with Google, which was very profitable for Baidu. Of course the Chinese government is supporting their own companies, so it is not easy for the companies in the West to penetrate the Asian markets. It`s hard to say how well Baidu would be doing if Google hadn`t pulled out of China in 2010.

A report from China Internet Network Information Center said in June that China had 632 million Internet users and 527 million mobile Internet users. This is about the numbers of China`s middle class.

It is expected that this number of middle class in China will grow by 500 million over the next decade, and reach a whopping three billion by 2030, which mean a huge market for many start-ups in the west, but the big question is the Chinese government.

They have a habit of favoring state-owned or state-connected companies. An Internet startup with total potential revenues of $10 million in the U.S might achieve revenues of ten times more in Asia. It can be lucrative to expand in Asia, but sometimes not so easy.

WhatsApp is popular in Hong Kong, but WeChat dominates in China. Kakao Talk is the big thing in Korea, while the most popular chat app in Japan is Line. As you may know; Asia is not only China. What might work in China can be a flop in Korea, Japan, Singapore or Hong Kong.

Alibaba will change the Chinese corporate giant`s diverse range of business lines, from e-commerce marketplaces to logistics to financial services. A overseas IPO could prompt the firm to reassess its strategy for these business categories as well as the countries where it operates.

The West are protecting their companies just like the Chinese government. It was not so easy for Baidu, VIPShop or Youku Tudou in the overseas markets like the U.S, as they all are focused on the Chinese market. But Baidu is a search engine, while Alibaba is something different. Peope want to buy things cheap and Alibaba can fix that.

As Jack Ma said; «China is the main course, while developed markets like the U.S are merely dessert».

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | September 10, 2014 · 2:18 pm

Who is Jack Ma?

Jack Ma or Ma Yun is a Chinese entrepreneur born in October 15, 1964. He is one of the most powerful people in Asia, and among the most influential people in the world. He is also selected by Forbes as one of Asia`s Hereos of Philanthropy for his contribution to disaster relief and poverty.

Jack-Ma-in-the-shadows

(Picture: Jack Ma, founder of Alibaba)

He is the Executive Chairman of Alibaba Group, a family of highly successful Internet-based business. One of them is Alibaba.com which is going public friday next week.

He was born in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province in China. He is married to Zhang Ying and they have one daughter and one son who is currently an undergraduate student of California, Berkeley. At an early age, Jack Ma developed a desire to learn English, although he failed the entrance exam twice. He attended Hangzhou Teacher`s Institute (Hangzhou Normal University).

Ma graduated in 1988 with a bachelor`s degree in English. While at school, Ma elected student chairman. He later became a lecturer in English and International Trade at the Hangzhou Dianzi University.

Jack Ma started building websites for Chinese companies with the help of friends in the US. He founded China Yellowpages in 1995, widely believed to be China`s first Internet-based company. From 1998 to 1999, Ma headed an information technology company established by the China International electronic Commerce Center, a department of the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation.

He founded Alibaba in 1999, which is a China-based business-to-business marketplace site which currently serves more than 79 million members from more than 240 countries and territories. Jack Ma`s Alibaba is planning to raise 20,1 billion in an IPO on friday next week.Alibaba`s mission is «To make it easy to do business anywhere».

Jack Ma serves as Executive Chairman of Alibaba Group, which is a holding company with nine major subsidiaries; Alibaba.com, Taobao Marketplace, Tmall, eTao, Alibaba Cloud Computing, Juhasuan, 1688.com, AliExpress.com and Alipay.

Alibaba`s online transaction volume exceeded one trillion yuan in November 2012, and Ma was thus labeled «trillion Hou», meaning literally «Trillion Yuan Marquis» in Chinese.

Alibaba launched Yuè Bao in 2013, which is a money market fund that users can invest in directly using Alipay. With $80 billion, it is the fourth largest in the world and is sending shock waves through China`s ossified banking system.

Alibaba is expanding into a dizzying array of fields, including cloud computing, messaging, mobile, mapping, TV, ride-sharing, taxi services, media and crowd-funding. Many of their investments have been with American companies like Amazon rival Shoprunner, ride-sharing service Lyft and Tango, which is a popular messaging app.

In 2009 at a shareholders Meeting, he encouraged those in attendance, including shareholders, customers and students from two Hong Kong universities, to take into their own hands and take action in the form of starting businesses to cope with the economic downturn rather than waiting for government of business to help them.

He reminded everyone that the great fortunes of the world were made by people who saw opportunities that others didn`t, and he noted that the aftermath of the recent global recession would be no different in terms of exposing new ways of doing business.

Jack Ma is a board member of Japan`s SoftBank and China`Huayi Brothers Media Corporation, and became a Chairman of the Board for the Nature Conservancy`s China Program after he stepped down from Alibaba as company CEO last year.

Alibaba`s IPO is the biggest U.S IPO in History!

The price range will be between $60 and $66 per share, which could value the company at well over $150 billion. The Alibaba IPO would make its offering the biggest U.S IPO on record, beating out Visa and Facebook.

Jack Ma is among the three richest in China. Which is Jack Ma ($11,2 billion), Ma Huateng ($15,6 billion), and Robin Li ($16,3 billion). They are all Internet entrepreneurs, but this is just the beginning. By the end of this year, 45% of the world`s Internet users will be from the Asia-Pacific region.

You can read more about Alibaba on this site. Search for Alibaba and read more about this amazing conglomerate company.

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | June 23, 2014 · 2:07 pm

Black Gold is up on Iraqi war

Brent traded at its highest level since September as militants in Iraq seized more territory and President Barrack Obama warned that the crises may spill over into other countries. Fighters from the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant took control of Iraq`s border crossing with Jordan and Syria.

Black gold

Iraq pumped 3,3 million barrels a day last month. Saudi Arabia is the largest producer in the 12-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. U.S Secretary of State John Kerry arrived in Baghdad to try to get political leaders to set aside sectarian divisions and confront the growing threat.

John Kerry will spend the day meeting with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, as well as ministers and party leaders. But why do the U.S and John Kerry spend so much time and money on this case? Kerry said at a press conference that they want a government in Baghdad «that is prepared to represent all of the people of Iraq, that is prepared to be inclusive and share power».

The U.S didn`t invade Iraq to stop and evil tyrant and spread democracy. There were no weapons of mass destructions, and all of the terrorists that had been in Afghanistan fled to Pakistan. Not Iraq. The U.S went to Iraq for oil.

Back then, the U.S oil production was falling, but now it is rising. From 1970 to 2008, oil production fell from 9,6 million barrels per day to just 5 million barrels per day. Michael Simmons cast doubt on the actual size of Saudi Arabia`s reserves in his book from 2005, so it was not only the U.S either. M. King Hubbard`s «Peak oil» theory and breakneck emerging market growth, explain even more what happened in Iraq.

Vice President Dick Cheney had previously been the CEO of Halliburton, and made about $40 billion from the Iraq war. All this makes it hard to belive that the U.S was not in Iraq for the oil. But, did the U.S get all the oil? Nope.

Iraq is the second largest producer in OPEC and the country`s oil production hit 3,25 million barrels per day last year. A level not seen since before 1990, but the U.S oil imports from Iraq are actually down.

The U.S imported 725,000 barrels per day from Iraq in 1999, but now it is only 340,000 barrels a day. So, if Iraq is producing more oil than it has in decades, where is all the oil going? The oil is going to China.

China`s crude imports from Iraq increased by 31% year-over-year to about 600,000 barrels per day in the first four months of 2014, and that`s twice as much as the U.S import from Iraq. Up from almost nothing a decade ago.

Iraq`s oil production is expected to reach 8 million barrels by 2035, and that`s not all: they forecast that 80% of Iraqi production would go to China. Some investors say that Baghdad to Beijing is the new Silk Road of the global oil trade.

China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) has invested $4 billion in the Iraqi oil industry. They produced 299 million barrels from the country last year. Almost one-third of its overseas output. PetroChina and Sinopec have invested billions of dollars in Iraq as well, acquiring stakes in some of the country`s largest oil fields. So, why do the U.S and John Kerry spend so much time and money to try to stabilize Iraq?
The U.S came uninvited and the American people don`t want to be there, nor do the Iraqi people want the American people to be there. The U.S has sacrificed much so far; 4,500 dead American soldiers and about 120,000 dead Iraqi civilians. About $800 billion in upfront costs, with additional $1 trillion in military pensions, disability payments and debt service. Is it worth it?

Saddam could have stopped the mess in Iraq, but he is dead. The U.S killed him. Now, the Sunnis, the Shiite, and the Kurds can do it all alone. There is nothing America can do to bring two warring Islamic factions together or redeem its credibility. If someone should spend time and money on this mess, it should be China.

Reports today:
09:45 a.m EST Flash Manufacturing PMI
10:00 a.m EST Existing Home Sales

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | June 3, 2014 · 1:04 pm

India is the leader

India added 28 million users in mobile subscriptions in Q1 ended March this year. According to Ericsson`s Mobility report, the total base is now 790 million. Among the top five countries by net additions, India is the leader, accounted for more than 50% of new mobile subscriptions in Q1.

Samsung

(Picture: Samsung Smartphone)

Ericsson expect that the total number of mobile subscriptions will exceed the world`s population in 2015. By the end of 2019, they predict that the mobile broadband subscriptions will reach 7,6 billion, representing more than 80% of total mobile subscriptions.

It is also expected that the number of smart phone subscriptions will reach 5,6 billion at the end of 2019. 65% of all phones sold worldwide in Q1 were smartphones. Smartphone subscriptions will exceed those for basic phones in a couple of years.

India is growing! So are the smart phone sales. It skyrocketed in 2013 and 44 million shipments is a big jump compared with 16,2 million a year earlier. The growth is expected to continue in 2014. The Indian consumer is expected to consume four times the amount of mobile data per month, contributing to the 10-fold growth prediction in mobile data traffic between 2013 and 2019.

It’s expected to see a shift in 2016, as the networks will go from GSM to 3G and 4G, and that will help cellular Machine-to-Machine (M2M) devices to grow significantly. 3G and 4G will represent the majority of active cellular M2M subscriptions in a few years.

Cellular M2M is taking off, and the number of active cellular M2M devices will increase to about 4 times by 2019, from 200 million at the end of last year to about 800 million in 2019. It is expected to see more than 20% of the active cellular M2M devices to be connected to LTE subscriptions.

In 2019, China will reach over 700 million LTE subscriptions, and that is more than 25% of total global subscriptions for LTE. Europe will only see LTE subscriptions penetration of 30% compared to 85% in North America.

China`s TCL Communication is preparing to launch 4G phablets in a tie up with Reliance Jio Infocomm, which is likely to roll out its much-awaited high-speed data and voice services in Q2 this year.

TCL Communication is listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and part of China`s TCL Corporation. They sell smartphones under Alcatel One Touch brand. The Chinese company bought the Alcatel phone business in 2005. A phablet is a mobile handset with 5 to 6,9 inch screen size.

Reports today:

10:00 a.m EST Factory orders m/m

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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