Category Archives: Quantitative Easing

If the Fed`s neutral rate is as low as they estimate or even lower, they will be glad to have their unconventional tools in their toolkit

President Trump will announce the next Fed Chair very soon. This is happening at a time were Mr Trump is planning a new tax reform. At a time were Mr Trump want to spend more money on infrastructure.

Mr Trump attacked Ms Yellen on the campaign trail and accused her for holding the rates too low, but he has halted any criticism of Yellen and the Fed since his inauguration. Now, Mr Trump say he like Ms Yellen and refuse to close down the possibility of reappointing her.

 

Ms Yellens term as a Fed Chair is about to end and the term is up for renewal early next year, but Yellens term as a governor on the Federal Reserve extends until January 2024.

So, if Mr Trump wants to “fire” Ms Yellen as a Fed Chair, she will still stay on the board even is Mr Trump dont want her to win the next term as a Fed Chair.

John Taylor and Jay Powell are among two of the other candidates on Mr Trumps shortlist. Anyway, whats interesting is their policy on interest rates.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen wrote an article about A Challenging Decade and a Question for the Future on the Fed`s own website. Her headline was a key question for the future. As the financial crisis and Great Recession fade into the past and the stance of monetary policy gradually returns to normal, a natural question concerns the possible future role of the unconventional policy tools we deployed after the onset of the crisis, Ms Yellen said.

My colleagues on the FOMC and I belive that, whenever possible, influencing short-term interest rates by targeting the federal funds rate should be our primary tool. As I have already noted, we have a long track record using this tool to pursue our statutory goals. In contrast, we have much more limited experience with using our securities holdings for that purpose.

Where does this assessment leave our unconventional policy tools? I belive their deployment should be considered again if our conventional tool reaches its limit, that is, when the federal funds rate has reached its effective lower bound and the U.S economy still needs further monetary policy accommodation.

Does this mean that it will take another Great Recession for our unconventional tools to be used again? Not necessarily. Recent studies suggest that the neutral level of the federal funds rate appears to be much lower than it was in previous decades.

Indeed, most FOMC participants now assess the longer-run value of the neutral Federal funds rate as only 2-3/4 percent or so, compared with around 4-1/4 percent just a few years ago. With a low neutral federal funds rate, there will typically be less scope for the FOMC to reduce short-term interest rates in response to an economic downturn, raising the possibility that we may need to resort again to enhanced forward rate guidance and asset purchases to provide needed accommodation.

Of course, substantial uncertainty surrounds any estimates of the neutral level of short-term interest rates. In this regard, there is an important asymmetry to consider. If the neutral rate turns out to be significantly higher than we currently estimate, it is less likely that we will have to deploy our unconventional tools again.

In contrast, if the neutral rate is as low as we estimate or even lower, we will be glad to have our unconventional tools in our toolkit.

The bottom line is that we must recognize that our unconventional tools might have to be used again.

If we are indeed living in a low-neutral-rate world, a significantly less severe economic downturn that the Great Recession might be sufficient to drive short-term interest rates back to their effective lower bound.

Ms Yellen concluded with this summary: As a result of the Great Recession, the Federal Reserve has confronted two key challenges over the past several years: One, the FOMC had to provide additional policy accommodation after short-term interest rates reached their effective lower bound; and two, subsequently, as we made progress toward the achievement of our mandate, we had to start scaling back that accommodation in the presence of a vastly expanded Federal Reserve balance sheet.

Ms Yellen highlighted two points about the FOMC`s experience with those challenges. First, the monetary policy tools that the Federal Reserve deployed in the immediate aftermath of the crisis – explicit forward rate guidance, large-scale asset purchases, and the payment of interest on excess reserves have helped us overcome these challenges.

Second, in light of evidence suggesting that the neutral level of short-term interest rates is significantly lower than it was in previous decades, the likelihood that future monetary policymakers will have to confront those two challenges again is uncomfortably high.

For this reason, we must keep our in conventional policy tools ready to be deployed again should short-term interest rates return to their effective lower bound.

things

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Filed under Politics, Quantitative Easing

Jamie Dimon said he would fire any employee trading bitcoin for being “stupid” and Prince Alwaleed belive it is a bubble and Enron in the making

I wrote about Bitcoin four years ago. At that time it was only a digital currency that no one knew something about. Now it is on the way to be mainstream. The price have skyrocketed thanks to a massive campaign.

Bitcoin was registered in August 18, 2008. It follows the ideas set out in a white paper by the mysterious Satoshi Nakamoto. The first bubble started in October 3rd, 2010. The BTC price was only $0,06. Then the price crashed down to $0,01, and a massive buying frenzy started. Now, the price is just below $6,000.

Some people love it, and some people dont. One of those who dont like bitcoin is JPMorgan Chase & Co CEO Jamie Dimon. He said he would fire any employee trading bitcoin for being “stupid.”

Saudi billionaire Prince Alwaleed do agree. They are both joining the long line of skeptics saying bitcoin is a bubble, and Prince Alwaleed said “I just dont belive in this bitcoin thing. I think its just going to implode one day. I think this is Enron in the making,” Alwaleed told CNBC.

He also said “It just doesnt make sence. This thing is not regulated, its just not under control, it`s not under the supervision” of any central bank, he said.

My computers are full of bitcoin ads. It says; “millions are buying bitcoin.” Some pro`s in the mainstream media are telling people to invest in bitcoin and specially hedge funds and other traders in Norway.

The Swedish government has successfully auctioned off some bitcoin a few days ago, collecting more than the prevailing market rate in the sale. The 0,6 BTC, along with an equal amount of bitcoin cash, which was not previously disclosed, were sold by the Kronofogden during a week-long auction for a total of 43,000 kroner.

Kronofogden is not the first government agency to sell seized bitcoin. A few weeks ago, the U.S department of Justice formally took possession of $48 million it accrued through the sale of 144,336 bitcoins since the closure of the Silk Road dark market.

China`s big government and banks have banned Bitcoin, and its growing popularity in China may have caused the government to begin to perceive it as a threat to local currency, especially as Chinese investors bought up bitcoin a bet against the yuan last year.

China is home to vast and lucrative cryptocurrency mining operations for both Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocoins. Three Chinese exchanges like Bitfinex, OkCoin and BTCC, made up over 45 percent of the global market share over the last two months.

Co-founder and CEO of BTCC, Bobby Lee said it must be fake news because the exchange was operating normally.

Many supporters belive that Bitcoin is the future. Those who endorse it are of the view that it facilitates a much faster, no-fee payment system for transactions across the globe. It is not backed by any government or central bank.

Bitcoin can be exchanged for traditional currencies; in fact, its exchange rate against the dollar attracts potential investors and traders in currency plays. Another reason for its popularity is that they can act as an alternative to national fiat money and traditional commodities like gold.

All this is a huge competition to banks and central banks, and can make instability.

To make it short; the market crashed in 1929 and Ben Bernanke have studied it for a long time. When the market crashed in 2008, Ben Bernanke started to stimulate the economy with its QE program. He «printed» money. In other words; he saved the world.

Crypto currencies are not regulated and if crypto currencies is the future, we can already now predict how it can end if the market is crashing……

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Filed under Commodities, Emerging markets, Politics, Quantitative Easing, Uncategorized

Banks are in focus this week and ECB could change its forward guidance

The FED is expected to increase the short-term interest rate by 25 basis points this week. If the FED does not raise rates at he March FOMC meeting, it will be a big surprise for many investors. Two things to look for is unemployment and inflation.

The FED is not the only one to have a look at the rates this month. BOJ and ECB is also looking at the rate. All this is headed for an exiting week.

 

 

The U.S unemployment rate fell to 4,7 percent last month which is in line with market expectations. Labor force participation rate increased by 0,1 percentage point to 63 percent, and the number of unemployment persons was almost unchanged at 7,5 million.

Inflation rate is at near 5-year high of 2,5 percent, which is the highest since March of 2012. The inflation rate accelerated for the sixth consecutive month, mainly boosted by gasoline prices. Energy prices jumped 10,8 percent YoY and food prices declined 0,2 percent.

 

 

Watch out for inflation in February 2017 on Wednesday 15 at 12:30 PM. forecast is 2,5%.

Mario Draghi and ECB discussed whether rates can rise before QE ends. A big surprise for many analysts. Why are they doing that? The fact is that they are not satisfied with negative interest rates. This negative rates is squeezing banks’ profit margins because they are not matching the cost, and that will make if difficult for banks to lend to households and companies.

BNP Paribas has predicted the deposit rate will be increased this September, and QE is intended to run until at least the end of 2017. Some people said at least mid-2018. Anyway; analysts will scrutinize the ECB statement on Thursday to look for any changes.

BOJ will have an Interest rate decision on Thursday 16th at 03:00 AM. Forecast is -0,1 percent, which is the same as its January 2017 meeting. In January, policymakers also decided to maintain its 10-years government bond yield target around zero percent.

Economic growth forecast is 1,5 percent for 2017 fiscal year from an earlier projection of a 1,3 percent growth.

Banks are in focus this week and ECB could change its forward guidance.

 

trump100_b

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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The balance sheet assets of the six major central banks is up about 240%

All the worlds central banks are printing money like never before, and this is for the first time in history. The balance sheet assets of the six major central banks have just hit a new all-time record high of $17,3 trillion. Thats up from $4,987 trillion in May 2006.

People`s Bank of China (PBOC) has the largest balance sheet with total assets of $5,0 trillion, followed by the Federal Reserve with $4,4 trillion.

 

 

balancesheet

 

The SNB is at the bottom of the chart above, but it has the largest balance sheet as a percentage of GDP, with it currently up to 88,4% of GDP vs. 20% of GDP in May 2006.

The BoJ`s balance sheet is equal to 70% of GDP vs. 25% of GDP in May 2006.

The PBOC`s balance sheet is equal to 53% of GDP vs. 56% of GDP in May 2006

The Fed`s balance sheet is equal to 25% of GDP vs 6% of GDP in May 2006

The ECB`s balance sheet is equal to 25% of GDP vs. 13% of GDP in May 2006

The BoE`s balance sheet is equal to 22% of GDP vs. 6% of GDP in May 2006

The total assets of the world`s six major central banks is equal to 36% of their combined GDP, a new all-time record high vs. Only 14% of their combined GDP in May 2006, and well above the nine median of 26%!

Trumps goal is massive growth, and IMF in January raised its economic growth forecasts to 2,3% in 2017 and 2,5% in 2018, thanks to Donald Trumps plans to cut taxes and boost infrastructure spending. The World Bank will follow IMF with similar forecasts.

Trump`s bold plan is to create 25 million new American jobs in the next decade, which means it will only take 2% annual growth of the workforce to hit that target. Data shows us that 25 million jobs have never been created in a 10 year timeframe.

A 2% growth rate over 10 year will generate 25 million jobs, which means if the economic growth rate hits 2,5% it would take about 8 years. If the growth rate goes up to 3% per year it will take about 6 years. If the rate goes higher, Trump can reach his goal during his first period as a President.

I do not agree with Trump`s immigrant policy, but there is a drawback here; If Trump want to reach his goal, he need immigrants, because the number of people who are working dropped 3,7% over the past 10 years, and some of the reasons for that is the baby boomers demographic shift.

Janet Yellen also said she consider to hike the rates because the economy is improving. The Fed want to proceed with «normalizing» monetary policy, which means they want to have room to ease in case of a future shock.

President Donald Trump can help them to solve their fiscal policy by cutting tax rates and spend more money on infrastructure. At the same time, he need to keep the lid on federal spending. Will Donald Trump succeed? Betting against him have so far been a bad decision.

 

trump100_b

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Very important week

Next week will be exiting. The earnings season is at the end and investors focus now will be on a flood of data coming in. It all starts on monday March 14 were the Bank of Japan will announce its policies.

Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda is in a special situation. Just like ECBs Mario Draghi, he talked about his «bazooka» and said he wanted to do whatever it takes to get Japans economy back on track to a stable growth.

debt

The answer so far is negative interest rate, and they started charging commercial banks 0,1% interest on some reserves last month. That lowered the borrowing cost, but on the other hand, it made some confusion about the effects on Japan`s savers.

Haruhiko Kuroda has been called to parliament for questioning many times and more than any other central bank chief during the same period. Japanese 10-year Government Bonds traded at -0,20% for the first time in history and dropped farther into negative territory.

Negative rate is also seen in Sweden, Denmark and Switzerland. Sweden`s goal is to raise the inflation. The goal in Denmark and Switzerland is to prevent the currency to raise too much.

Negative rates can be the new normal because none of them turn this situation into a strong economic growth. So, What about America?

All eyes will be on Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC meeting will kick off on Tuesday 15, and the Fed`s interest rate decision is the highlight on Wednesday 16, with the 2 p.m ET announcement followed by a 2,30 press conference with Fed Chair Janet Yellen.

According to Wall Street Journal`s Jon Hilsenrath who is the mouthpiece of the Fed, the central bank will hold off raising rates this month, but will leave the door open for a hike in April or June this year.

U.S Consumer prices went up 1,4% YoY in January of 2016, and the inflation rate accelerated for the fourth straight month which is very impressive. CPI for February 2016 is scheduled to be released on Wednesday 16.

The European Central Bank (ECB) followed BOJ, and increased QE by 20 billion euros per month on thursday. Not only that. They also lowered interest rates, which is an unexpectedly strong move. The ECB increased its monthly bond buying from 60 to 80 billion euros and drove commercial deposit rates from -0,30% to -0,40% and cut a main refinance rate from 0,05% to 0,00%.

As you may know, many people are very angry. Not only in Europe, but also in America. The middle class is wiped out and businessman Donald Trump knows that. He doesn`t like what he see and want to do something about it; Make America great again.

The battle for the White House continues, and next week`s Ohio and Florida primaries would give Donald Trump the knockout blow necessary to capture the GOP nomination. Anti-Trump groups are spending millions of dollar on TV ads to attack him. Is that enough to stop him? If not, it will be a short way left to the White House.

Very important week.

 

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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