Tag Archives: Emerging markets

by | October 18, 2019 · 7:39 pm

China`s growth is the weakest since 1992 and the pace of global economic activity remains weak as well

The worlds fastest-growing region is slowing and show sign of a darkening global outlook. Just look at Chinas Q3 growth. It`s the weakest growth in 28 years. The Chinese economy advanced 6% YoY in Q3 2019 and that is the weakest since 1992.

China have a trade tension with the U.S, weakening global demand and alarming off-balance-sheet borrowings by local governments. IMF said on Friday that the growth can get worse, but Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said «All policy tools must e used to achieve sustainable growth.»

In its World Economic Outlook report on Tuesday, the IMF cut its economic growth forecast for the Asia-Pacific region to 5,0% for this year and 5,1% for 2020, and that is the slowest pace of expansion since the global financial crisis.

A faster-than-expected slowdown in Chinas economic growth could also generate negative spillovers in the region, as many Asian countries have supply chains closely tied to China, the IMFs Rhee said.

The IMF slashed China`s growth forecast to 6,1% for this year and 5,8% for 2020, pointing to the impact from the trade conflict and tighter regulation to address excess debt. But China is not alone.

The pace of global economic activity remains weak, and after slowing sharply in the last three quarters of 2018, momentum in manufacturing activity, in particular, has weakened substantially, to levels not seen since the global financial crisis.

Rising trade and geopolitical tensions have increased uncertainty about the future of the global trading system and international cooperation more generally, taking a toll on business confidence, investment decisions, and global trade.

A natable shift toward increased monetary policy accommodation, through both action and communication, has cushioned the impact of these tensions on financial market sentiment and activity, while a generally resilient service sector has supported employment growth.

To strengthen resilience, policymakers should address financial vulnerabilities that pose risks to growth in the medium term.

Making growth more inclusive, which is essential for securing better economic prospects for all, should remain an overarching goal.

A positive cheerleader like Trump is the right man to reach that goal. Not the Media-Mob-Clowns talking about recession ever day. What is Trump doing for his country? What about the Media Mob?

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | April 4, 2016 · 12:41 pm

China goes down and Africa up

Chinas GDP is still high, but its falling and it can go below 4%. The Chinese economy grew an annual 6,8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015 which is the weakest since first quarter of 2009. For the full year of 2015, GDP expanded by 6,9 percent which is the weakest growth in 25 years.

China`s GDP annual growth rate came in at 3,80 percent in the fourth quarter of 1990, and peaked at an all-time high of 15,40 percent in the first quarter of 1993. GDP annual growth rate in China averaged 9,88 percent from 1989 until 2015.

 

China

 

Consumer prices in China rose 2,3 percent YoY in February of 2016 which is up from 1,8 percent in January. This is the highest inflation rate since July 2014. Inflation rate in China reached a record low of -2,20 percent in April of 1999, and an all-time high of 28,40 percent in February of 1989. Inflation rate in China averaged 5,51 percent from 1986 until 2016.

The most important components of the CPI basket in China, are Food with a 31,8 percent of total weight and Residence at 17,2 percent. Consumer prices rose 2,3 percent in February this year and that is the highest inflation rate since July 2014, as politically sensitive food prices surged 7,3 percent over the Lunar New Year holiday and cold weather.

Africa is another growth story. A quick look at the chart tell us a new fx bull market is imminent. Rand looks great vs pound.

 

Kenya

 

South Sudan is the youngest nation in the world and they are officially recognised as a country in July 2011. Despite taking about 75 percent of old Sudan`s oil reserves, it is one of the poorest regions in Africa and government revenues are still dependent of foreign aid.

They had massive growth in 2014. South Sudan expanded 15,90 percent in 2014 which is an all-time high, but it`s a young nation and keep in mind that they reached a record low of -46,10 percent in 2012.

Kenya has been experiencing steady growth for some years now. The World Bank predicted a growth rate of 6,6 percent in 2016 and 7 percent next year. How are they doing it? The growth comes from massive investments in infrastructure and jobs, and they are taking steps to improve the business climate, and a boost in exports.

This can be risky.

The threat of terrorist attacks from Al-Shabaab cause security concerns. Kenyas tourism industry is one of the countrys key sectors and Al-Shabaab has a negative impact on that industry. Their manufacturing sector has also been stagnant for some years. In addition, there is a lack of competition and minimal production.

Kenya is still highly dependent on agriculture and the sector made a significant 26 percent of the countrys GDP annually, and another 25 percent indirectly. The sector accounts for 65 percent of Kenyas total export.

Manufacturing is also important for Kenya`s growth. Investment opportunities include manufacturing of fertilizer, agro-processing, machine tools and machinery, garments, and engineering products for both domestic and export markets.

 

sb-wall5

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | April 13, 2015 · 5:57 pm

When will China be the world`s largest economy?

The U.S is still the largest economy in the world, followed by China. But China is growing much faster than the U.S, and China`s GDP will grow twice as much as its size today and much faster than the U.S.

China will close its gap with the U.S by 2030.

Largest economies in 2030

Not only the U.S will be far less dominant, but some of the largest European economies will also lose to several emerging markets that will skyrocket into the new economic order. This is what we will see in the next fifteen year, according to the U.S Department of Agriculture.

As you can see from the chart above, the gray bar represents the $16,8 trillion gross domestic product projected for 2015. The green bar show you how much bigger the economy is expected to be the next fifteen years.

China and India will grow fast. India is raked eights this year but India will climb past Brazil, France, Germany, Japan and the U.K. according to IMF (International Monetary Fund), India will have the largest workforce in the world within the next fifteen years.

Take a look at Japan.

Despite their QE programs in Japan, they will not grow much the next fifteen years, and that will push the country down on this ranking list made by USDA which is only estimates. It`s interesting to see because Japan was so big until the bubble burst in the early 1990`s.

So, Japan will not be the growth story the next decade, but where is the growth in addition to China and India? Africa is looking great, and Uganda are among the best. They will climb 18 spots and will be ranked at 91.

The fastest growing countries in the world right now is China, followed by Philippines, Kenya and India. Emerging markets in Asia and Africa will be at the top of global growth projections over the next two years.

The world is expected to grow 3,2 percent in 2015 and 3,7 percent in 2016. The Euro zone is expected to expand just 1,1 percent, as ECB`s President Mario Draghi deals with a fragile Greece and embarks on a bond-purchase program to stimulate the Euro-zone`s growth.

China, India, Philippines, Indonesia and Kenya will grow more than 5 percent this year and make up about 16 percent of the global GDP together. Africa`s largest economy, Nigeria, is projected to expand 4,9 percent this year, and Kenya about 6 percent despite their high unemployment rate. China will slow to 7 percent this year, but they are still the fastest growing G-20 nation.

Asia and Africa will dominate the global growth in 2015.

U.S growth this year is expecting to be about 3 percent even as the dollar soars to its highest level in more than a decade.

 

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | June 23, 2014 · 2:07 pm

Black Gold is up on Iraqi war

Brent traded at its highest level since September as militants in Iraq seized more territory and President Barrack Obama warned that the crises may spill over into other countries. Fighters from the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant took control of Iraq`s border crossing with Jordan and Syria.

Black gold

Iraq pumped 3,3 million barrels a day last month. Saudi Arabia is the largest producer in the 12-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. U.S Secretary of State John Kerry arrived in Baghdad to try to get political leaders to set aside sectarian divisions and confront the growing threat.

John Kerry will spend the day meeting with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, as well as ministers and party leaders. But why do the U.S and John Kerry spend so much time and money on this case? Kerry said at a press conference that they want a government in Baghdad «that is prepared to represent all of the people of Iraq, that is prepared to be inclusive and share power».

The U.S didn`t invade Iraq to stop and evil tyrant and spread democracy. There were no weapons of mass destructions, and all of the terrorists that had been in Afghanistan fled to Pakistan. Not Iraq. The U.S went to Iraq for oil.

Back then, the U.S oil production was falling, but now it is rising. From 1970 to 2008, oil production fell from 9,6 million barrels per day to just 5 million barrels per day. Michael Simmons cast doubt on the actual size of Saudi Arabia`s reserves in his book from 2005, so it was not only the U.S either. M. King Hubbard`s «Peak oil» theory and breakneck emerging market growth, explain even more what happened in Iraq.

Vice President Dick Cheney had previously been the CEO of Halliburton, and made about $40 billion from the Iraq war. All this makes it hard to belive that the U.S was not in Iraq for the oil. But, did the U.S get all the oil? Nope.

Iraq is the second largest producer in OPEC and the country`s oil production hit 3,25 million barrels per day last year. A level not seen since before 1990, but the U.S oil imports from Iraq are actually down.

The U.S imported 725,000 barrels per day from Iraq in 1999, but now it is only 340,000 barrels a day. So, if Iraq is producing more oil than it has in decades, where is all the oil going? The oil is going to China.

China`s crude imports from Iraq increased by 31% year-over-year to about 600,000 barrels per day in the first four months of 2014, and that`s twice as much as the U.S import from Iraq. Up from almost nothing a decade ago.

Iraq`s oil production is expected to reach 8 million barrels by 2035, and that`s not all: they forecast that 80% of Iraqi production would go to China. Some investors say that Baghdad to Beijing is the new Silk Road of the global oil trade.

China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) has invested $4 billion in the Iraqi oil industry. They produced 299 million barrels from the country last year. Almost one-third of its overseas output. PetroChina and Sinopec have invested billions of dollars in Iraq as well, acquiring stakes in some of the country`s largest oil fields. So, why do the U.S and John Kerry spend so much time and money to try to stabilize Iraq?
The U.S came uninvited and the American people don`t want to be there, nor do the Iraqi people want the American people to be there. The U.S has sacrificed much so far; 4,500 dead American soldiers and about 120,000 dead Iraqi civilians. About $800 billion in upfront costs, with additional $1 trillion in military pensions, disability payments and debt service. Is it worth it?

Saddam could have stopped the mess in Iraq, but he is dead. The U.S killed him. Now, the Sunnis, the Shiite, and the Kurds can do it all alone. There is nothing America can do to bring two warring Islamic factions together or redeem its credibility. If someone should spend time and money on this mess, it should be China.

Reports today:
09:45 a.m EST Flash Manufacturing PMI
10:00 a.m EST Existing Home Sales

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | March 13, 2014 · 1:11 pm

Celebrating the bull Market

The Bull market is five years and four days old, since the market crash in 2008. Investors are satisfied with a gain of +175% in S&P 500 since then, but some investors are nervous. About what? Some of them know that a bull market lasts five years and three months.

shinybull_for_sitesite-7

The market will probably crash and some investors think so, but others say the bull market will continue. There are two reasons for that: First of all: there is a lot of money on the sidelines or in underperforming bond funds.

Many investors remember the bear markets in 2000 – 2002 and 2008 – 2009. They burned both times and now they will be late to the party once again. As they jump on board, stocks will continue to leap higher.

Secondly: Economic expansion is much slower this time. Usually 3% GDP growth is coming out of most of recessions. This time it goes much slower and we are about 1 – 2% GDP growth. That`s why we will see more legs for this bullish market.

Any way, this market is difficult. There are so much information out there that is too much disturbing, so it`s all about picking the right stocks now. The other thing to do is to look for the right market. I still look at emerging markets despite the fear out there.

The simple reason why I am doing that is because the stock market have gone much longer than the real economy and growth. GDP is about 1 – 2% in U.S and in China it is expected to see a GDP about 7,5%, down from 10%. But it`s still high.

Reports today:

08:30 AM ET Core Retail Sales m/m
08:30 AM ET Retail Sales m/m
08:30 AM ET Unemployment claims
08:30 AM ET Import prices m/m
10:00 AM ET Business Inventories m/m
10:00 AM ET Fed Gov Nomination Hearings
02:00 PM ET Federal Budget Balance

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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