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The global economy is more globalized today than during the peak of the early 20th century but will the open global economic order endure?

Globalization is one of the main reasons why President Trump was elected. He is now a President in the U.S because he often talked about their existing trade agreements, threatened to slap taxes on U.S companies investing overseas, renegotiate or withdraw from NAFTA, abandon support for the TPP, label China a currency manipulator and establish tariffs to name a few things.

President Trump did a lot of important things on his first 100 days and there is more to come. Welcome to the new world. A new era started when Mr Trump was elected.

The U.S is the world`s largest economy measured in market dollars. It is also the third most populated. Therefore, a withdrawal from the global economy is measurable, but America is not as globally integrated as we might think.

The U.S is the third biggest exporter, yet exports account only 13% of GDP. Main exports are capital goods (39%) and industrial supplies (28%). Others include: consumer goods (12%); %).automotive vehicles, parts and engines (10,5%); foods, feeds and beverages (7%).

Main exports partners are: Canada (19%), Mexico (14%), China (7%), Japan (4%), Germany (3%) and the United Kingdom (3%).

Exports of goods and services rose to an all-time high of USD 200,2 billion in November 2017.

The United States is also the world`s second largest importer. Main imports are; capital goods (29%) and consumer goods (26%). Others include: Industrial supplies (24%); automotive vehicles, parts and engines (15%); foods, feeds and beverages (5%).

Main Import partners are: China (19%), Canada (14,5%), Mexico (12%), Japan (6%) and Germany (5%).

Imports of goods and services rose to an all-time high of USD 250,7 billion in November 2017.

The United States has been running consistent trade deficits since 1976 du to high imports of oil and consumer products. The biggest trade deficits were recorded with China.

The U.S recorded a current account deficit of -2,60% of the country`s GDP in 2016. It reached an all-time high of 0,20% when Former President Ronald Reagan was inaugurated in 1981, but it declined all the years under his presidency.

 

 

 

Other countries can retaliate against Trump`s protectionist policies and that can start a trade war. But so far, so good. With an all-time high in Exports and Imports, Mr Trump must be doing something right.

If other countries don`t like the U.S liberal economic order, they can repudiate global norms and institutions that underpin the globalized economy. There is no doubt that emerging markets have benefited most from the open global economy, and we can clearly see members of the TPP seek to patch together the deal without the U.S.

But what happened to the first wave of globalization? The historical origins of globalization are the subject of ongoing debate. Let`s take a look at the globalization in the modern era. There are three epochs characterised by greatly increased international integration.

Europe and North-America were strongly affected by internationalization from 1860 to 1914. The flow of goods accelerated and capital moved freely between countries. Financial integration was more pronounced that it is today. Even international migrants was greater than it is today.

60 million people left Europe to seek their fortunes in the New World.

Important drivers behind the first wave of globalization were both the new technology and the fact that many countries began to embrace liberal trade policy after years of protectionism.

During the period 1500 – 1800, world trade increased by about 1% per year. After 1820 it increased by 3,5% and during the nineteenth century as a whole, trade in Europe increased by 40%. Great Britain was the world`s leading economy and the basis for the European free trade system was 1860 free trade pact between Great Britain and France.

Many other European countries subsequently aligned themselves with this free trade system.

Great Britain had introduced the gold standard in 1816 and during the nineteenth century the English pound sterling was the generally accepted currency of international business and many other countries introduced the gold standard.

Great Britain was the economic leader, but that Empire ended after World War II. The second wave og globalization started at the end of World War II and the new economic leader was USA. The American Empire started.

In the first wave we saw innovation of telegraph, steam engine, electricity and internal combustion engine. In the second wave jet plane was introduced. So was television, communication, satellites and container traffic.

The third wave started around 1980. It was a digital revolution and it refers to the advancement of technology from analog electric and mechanical devices to the digital technology available today. Advancements during the Third wave include the personal computer, the internet, and information and communications technology (ICT).

Now, we are here: the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

The fourth wave builds on the Digital Revolution, representing new ways in which technology becomes embedded within societies and even human body. It is marked by emerging technology breakthroughs in a number of fields, including robotics, artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, quantum computing, biotechnology, the Internet of Things, #D printing and autonomous vehicles.

The founder of WEF (World Economic Forum) Klaus Schwab is expected to see the heavy implementation of several emerging technologies with highly potential of disruptive effects.

Globalization collapsed after World War I, but resurgent after World War II. The breaking of globalization`s first wave a century ago is proof that the forces of global economic integration are neither irresistible nor irreversible.

Americas view on globalizations future has changed. For all I know, maybe Trump and his team are much less assured that the open global economic order will endure. The global economy is more globalized today than during the peak of the early 20th century.

Whether that implies globalization has reached unsustainable levels, or that no such levels exist, remains to be seen.

International trade has grown faster than total production. Ben Bernanke once said that he can do something with the monetary policy but he cannot do something with the productivity.

We are now living in a truly exciting phase of global economic development.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Chinese President Xi Jinping said President Donald Trump`s state visit is a successful and historic visit

President Donald Trump visited Asia and China last week, and what a visit it was. We all know that Mr Trump want to Make America great again, but the relationship between China and America will not only Make America great again, but also the world.

China treated Mr Trump like a pop star with red carpets, military bands, a goose-steppping honor guard of soldiers and a twenty-one gun salute to name a few. Kids were jumping up and down with American flags as Trump`s motorcade passed. They also dined with Chinese president Xi Jinping in the Forbidden City.

Mr Trump is the first foreign leader accorded that honor since the founding of the Peoples Republic in 1949. Wow!

Xi Jinping said at the end of his speech that Trump`s state visit is a successful and historic visit. What did they do?

President Donald Trump is a business man. He colaborates with a lot of business people in China and have negotiated with Chinese businesses for a long time, so he know this game. In addition; he is a great negotiator.

Before he was leaving China, he and Xi Jinping announced business deals worth $250 billion. This deal is by many called Trump “miracle” deals.

Mr Trump is trying to correct the $350 billion trade deficit between China and the U.S, and he is on the way.

President Trump withdrew the United States from the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) in January this year and called it a bad deal. It seems like Mr Trump is trying to make a better deal and he is doing it for the American people.

They try to better protect labor and intellectual property rights. One TPP chapter spelled out commitments on environmental issues such as illegal wildlife trade and marine fishery protection.

Many of the other countries were not enthusiastic about the intellectual property rights and labor clauses in the original TPP agreement, because it tended to favor U.S interests.

Washington pushed for the labor, environmental and intellectual property commitments to save its own companies. Workers get paid more and treated better on average in the U.S compared to developing countries on the TPP roster.

They`re required to follow environmental laws at home, and American courts protect their trademarks, patents and copyrights. If equivalent firms in other countries avoid these practices, they can cut costs, or snag an outside trademark without paying.

This is very important for Mr Trump and the White House, and they will probably be patient and continue with its meetings regarding the best agreement possible. In the meantime, the other countries will continue its agreement without the U.S.

Mr Trump is the first foreign diplomat to be given a rare tour and private dinner in the Forbidden City since the People`s Republic of China was founded in 1949.

Donald and Melania Trump shared an afternoon tea with Xi Jinping and his wife Peng Liyuan at the Forbidden Palace Hall, and it was intentionally chosen for its historical and cultural significance that underscores cooperation between the two countries.

Mr Trump is doing everything he can to make America great again. Since he was elected a year ago, the stock market have gone straight up. Up, up, up and up. The stock market is up in all months so far this year, and that hasn`t happened in many decades. It is unbelievable.

People in America is also beginning to be very positive about the U.S economy. Consumer Confidence has gone straight up in months after months. That too, is unbelievable.

If Trumpism is the policies advocated by Donald Trump, especially those involving a rejection of the current political establishment and the vigorous pursuit of American national interests, and a controversial or outrageous statement attributed to Donald Trump, this is what it is;

TRUMPISM.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Tesla and Fiat Chrysler is up about 80% since the election

The focus now is how Donald Trumps policies are going to "Make America Great again". One of the first things Trump did was to shut down the TPP agreement, which is favoring TPPs laws before the constitution.

Trump do not blame Obama for this TPP agreement because this is something that has been negotiated in decades. Trump is a business man and he do things he belive is right for the American people.

 

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Trump can start a new global trade war and that means off for global equities, but what will happen if he starts a tax-cutting war? Countries around the world will start to compete to lower tax rates and that will probably make companies to invest and hire more, which is positive for equities.

President Trump has tweeted a lot about the automotive industry over Twitter, and after a few hours in the White house, he made a point to meet with the chief executives of Tesla and Fiat Chrysler. What Mr Trump want is to press the companies to build more vehicles in the U.S and hire more Americans into manufacturing jobs.

Reduced corporate taxes will surely please executives. If the automotive industry work together with the government, it will improve the environment and jobs creation and the competitiveness of manufacturing.

Trump`s decision to withdraw from the TPP is a largely symbolic move since it was unlikely to pass Congress. It was a strong symbol of his desire to implement policies that improve competitiveness and a new renaissance in American manufacturing.

The mother of all trade barriers is currency manipulation, and TPP failed in meaningfully dealing with that, and the automotive industry appreciate Trump`s courage to walk away from a bad trade deal.

Tesla and Fiat Chrysler combined is up about 80% since the election. Tesla has been a great rally since the beginning of December last year. It has so far been a great ride since its IPO in 2010, and now the average analyst`s recommendation is a Hold.

Fiat Chrysler look very cheap but a new scandal casting a shadow over the company. The company has doubled its value in a very few months but the scandal makes it risky for investors at the moment.

Trump met Tesla`s chief executive Elon Musk and the President told executives that he intends to eliminate a majority of regulations and «massively» cut corporate taxes, but that in return those companies must keep production domestic and preserve American jobs.

Trump told the CEO`s to device a «series of actions» within 30 days.

 

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Populist tsunami in the West

We are in a very dark period in the human history right now. What we see now is a volatile political movement, and the Republican Donald Trump`s victory over Democratic Hillary Clinton last week was a triumph of populism in the U.S.

Globalisation and mass immigration from Libya and Syria to name a few, have so far made the rise of populist rhetoric, and what we see in the U.S can spread to Europe. France can be the next country to follow the U.S.

 

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(Cartoon by Homer Davenport, published in New York Journal, 1896)

 

This years presidential election in the U.S saw a wave of populist sentiment in the campaigns of Bernie Sanders (democrats) and Donald Trump (republicans), with both candidates running on anti-establishment platforms.

They both appeal to economic protectionism and have criticized free trade deals such as TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) and NAFTA (the North American Free Trade Agreement). Their movements coincide with similar trend of populism in Europe.

Populism is a political ideology that holds that virtuous citizens are mistreated by a small circle of elites, who can be overthrown if the people recognize the danger and work together. Populism depicts elites as trampling on the rights, values, and voices of the legitimate people.

Many observers have noted that populism is inherent to representative democracy, after all, do populists not juxtapose «the pure people» against «the corrupt elite?» In the United States populist movements have high prestige in the history books, for example, farmers movements, New Deal reform movements, and the civil rights movement that were often called populist, by supporters and outsiders.

The word populism is derived from the Latin word Populus, which means people in English. «The Roman people», not in the sense of «multiple individual persons». Therefore, populism espouses government by the people as a whole (that is to say, the masses).

This is in contrast to aristocracy, synarchy or plutocracy, each of which is an ideology that espouse government by a small, privileged group above the masses. The Populares were an unofficial faction in the Roman senate whose supporters were known for their populist agenda.

They tried to rule the by mobilizing massess of Romans, and some of the best known of these were Julius Caesar, who eventually used referenda to bypass the Roman Senate and appeal to the people directly.

There have been similar populist movements in the U.S before. The terminology was inspired by the Populist Party of the 1890s. This was the party of the early 1890s which Midwestern and Southern farmers and some labor unions denounced a system whereby

«the fruits of the toil of millions are boldly stolen to build up colossal fortunes for a few.»

The term «populist» re-emerged in the 1950s. An anti-elitism similar to the populist wave in the 1890s, but not all academics accepted the comparison between the left-wing, anti-big business Populists and the right-wing, anti-communist McCarthyites.

The term «populist» nonetheless came to be applied to both left-wing and right-wing groups that blamed elites for the problems facing the country.

Theodore Roosevelt led a populist party in 1912, and Ralph Nader campaigned against the power of large corporations such as auto companies.

 

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(Theodore Roosevelt, born in 1858, Manhattan, New York)

 

From its beginnings in early 2009, the Tea Part movement has used populist rhetoric, particularly in areas and states where Democrats are in power. Boyer states:

The Tea Partys name, large outdoor rallies, populist rhetoric, and use of patriotic symbols (notably,Dont Tread On Me Gadsden Flag, which emerged as the movements standard) tapped into the historical legacy of the Antifederalist movement of the 1780s.

According to Political professors Joe Lowndes and Dorian Warren, the Occupy Movement is «first major populist movement on the U.S left since the 1930`s.»

The Occupy Movement is an international socio-political movement against social inequality and lack of «real democracy» around the world, its primary goal being to advance social and economic justice and new forms of democracy.

Among the movement`s prime concerns are how large corporations (and the financial system) control the world in a way that disproportionately benefits a minority, undermines democracy, and is unstable. It is part of what Manfred Steger calls the «global justice movement».

The fist Occupy protest t receive widespread attention was Occupy Wall Street in New York City`s Zuccotti Park, which began on 17 September 2011, the tenth anniversary of the re-opening of Wall Street trading after the 11 September 2001 attacks. By 9 October, Occupy protests had taken place in 82 countries and over 600 communities in the United States.

British protsters organized an occupation of the London Stock Exchange to bring attention to what they saw as unethical behaviour on the part of banks. In January 2012, Occupy protested at the World Economic Forum.

One of the organizers of the protest said the protests were to be focused against «increasing social and economic injustice in this country.» In his opinion, «the Government has made sure to maintain the status quo and let the people who caused this crisis get off scot-free, whilst conversely ensuring that the people of this country pay the price, in particular those most vulnerable.

The movement has been described as broadly anticapitalist. They want to tighten banking-industry regulations, ban high-frequency trading, arrest all «financial fraudsters» responsible for the 2008 crash, and form a Presidential commission to investigate and prosecute corruption in politics.

The Occupy movement is partly inspired by the Arab Spring, the 2009 University of California occupations, as well as the overall global wave of anti-austerity protests. The movement commonly uses the slogan: «We are the 99%».

The movement has been described as a «democratic awakening». It has also been called the reinvention of politics, revolution, and utopia in the twenty-first century.

 

 

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On 3 April 2016, hundreds of supporters of Bernie Sanders protested outside of CNNs Headquarters in Los Angeles. Sanders protestors were protesting CNNs coverage of the 2016 United States presidential elections, specifically in regards to the amount of airtime Sanders has received.

Known as Occupy CNN, protestors are claiming that major media networks have intentionally blocked out Sanders presidential campaign in favor of giving much more airtime to candidates such as Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

In Switzerland the Occupy spirit lives on by annual online and offline celebrations each year on the 17th September in the village of St. Imer where modern anarchism began with the International Congress of 1872.

The Occupy Cafe along with the Decentrate Co operative continues to assist those wishing to participate in the continuing «decentralisation of the power» of banks and corporate entities; and, to encourage global activism through developing trust and value networks.

Scholars have argued that populist elements have sometimes appeared in authoritarian or fascist movements. Conspiracist scapegoating employed by various populist movements can create «a seedbed for fascism. National Socialist populism interacted with and facilitated fascism in interwar Germany.

In this case, distressed middle-class populists during the pre-Nazi Weimar period mobilized their anger at government and big business. The Nazis «parazitized the forms and themes of the populists and moved their constituencies far to the right through ideological appeals involving demagoguery, scapegoating, and conspiracism. According to Fritzsche:

The Nazis expressed the populist yearnings of middle-class constituents and at the same time advocated a strong and resolutely anti-Marxist mobilization….. Against «unnaturally» divisive parties and querulous organized interest groups. National Socialists cast themselves as representatives of the commonvelth, of an allegedly betrayed and neglected German public… Breaking social barriers of status and caste, and celebrating at least rhetorically the populist ideal of the people`s community…

People in France are familiar with populism. In the late 18th century, the French Revolution, though led by wealthy intellectuals, could be described as a manifestation of populist sentiment against the elitist excesses and privileges of the Ancien Règime.

In France, the populist and nationalist picure was more mystical, metaphysical and literarian in nature. Historian Jules Michelet fused nationalism and populism by positing the people as a mystical unity who are the driving force of history in which the divinity finds its purpose.

Michelet viewed history as a representation of the struggle between spirit and matter, he claims France has a special place because the Frence became a people through equality, liberty and fraternity.

Because of this, he belived, the Frence people can never be wrong. michelet`s ideas are not socialism or rational politics, and his populism always minimizes, or even masks, social class differences.

 

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In the 1880 there was a resurgence of French populism in the form of Boulangisme, and in the 1950`s, Pierre Poujade was the leader of the right-wing populist movement Union de Defense Commercants et Artisans (UDCA)

Jean Marie Le Pen (who was UDCAs youngest deputy in the 1950s) can be characterized as right-wing populst or extreme-right populist.

The French National Front, currently led by Marine Le Pen, is one of the most successful populist parties in Europe. After Brexit and Trump`s victory, she has declared that her victory in Frence elections is the next step in the political wave sweeping the globe.

National Front leader Marine Le Pen has led a number of polls ahead of next spring`s French presidential election, but many belive she will reach the second round of voting, beaten in the final round by a candidate from one of the mainstream parties, as her father was in 2002.

Next after France can be Italy. In 1994, Silvio Berlusconi entered in politics with his new party called Forza Italia. He created a new kind of populism focused on media control. Another populist party in Italy is Lega Nord.

They fights for the implementation of stricter rules and laws in order to contrast the expansion of Islam into Europe. It opposed to Turkish membership of the European Union and is considered one of the eurosceptic movements. It also emphasizes the fight against illegal immigration.

In 2009, Beppe Grillo founded the Five Star Movement. The M5S`s programme also contains elements of both left-wing and right-wing populism and American-style libertarianism. The party is considered populist, ecologist, and partially Eurosceptic.

We live in a dark period of the human history, and the society we live in right now is disguisting. It`s all set up for a perfect storm and what we are facing right now is historic moments, but not something new. Just read my article «The Revolution of 1848 and Europe like it is today» (written May 6, 2016).

https://shinybull.com/2016/05/06/the-revolution-of-1848-and-europe-like-it-is-today/

The history repeat itself.

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Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) stands for 47% of world GDP

G 20 summit in China this weekend will be interesting for those who follow international trade. Leaders will talk about the slowing global trade and their shipping companies. On top of that we see signs of protectionism.

I wrote about Trance Pacific Partnership (TPP) i April last year, and what we know so far is that President Obama is hoping to get the deal through Congress before he leaves office. The time is running out.

 

TTIP-FOLDER

 

The world leaders has a lot to talk about as the global trade is in trouble because of the rising protectionism, which is a growing trend that is a huge challenge to world leaders. China has benefited from the global trade so far, but the protectionism is a big threat right now.

The TPP agreement was signed in February, but it has to be ratified by all twelve counties and Obama belive in the deal. Hillary Clinton have spoken out against it, and Donald Trump called TPP «an attack on America`s business.»

The typical protectionist rhetoric is typified by Donald Trump, and China faces huge criticism from both Europe and the U.S over the flood of steel and other raw materials it has unleashed on global markets.

People are dealing like never before and the free trade in Western nations has already put two deals on the table which is giving the G 20 leaders something to think hard about. One of them is the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), and the other one is Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).

TTIP stands for $34,2 trillion which is 47% of world GDP!

The agreement «will help unlock opportunity for American families, workers, businesses, farmers and ranchers through increased access to European markets,» the U.S government says. The European Commission says it would be worth €545 to each European citizen every year.

Many people are angry because the meetings are being held in top-secret.

TPP stands for $27,4 trillion which is 37% of world GDP.

The U.S and 11 other nations like Japan, Mexico, Singapore and Vietnam are involved. Nobel Prize winner Stiglitz called TPP outrageous, and other economists say that this agreement will boost income in the participating countries. Others say it will lift exports and support well paid jobs.

Other people are against those deals. They claim the deal will kill jobs and worsen income inequality across the nations. They argue it will only help big corporations and not ordinary citizens. The advocates of trade said it was going to benefit everyone.

The evidence is it`s benefited a few and left a lot behind, the Nobel laureate economist, Joseph Stiglitz said.

 

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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