Tag Archives: Gold

by | January 10, 2014 · 2:20 pm

U.S. nonfarm payrolls data

Yesterday we saw another mixed trading session, and today market participants will wait for the job report at 08:30 ET. The U.S stock index futures is up before the data that shows us that American employers last year added the most workers since 2005.

It is probably added 197,000 jobs in December, which means 2,27 million jobs in 2013 and that will be the strongest year in 8 years. The unemployment rate remain at a five-year low, landing on 7% in December last year. A strong report job data today could make the Fed to reduce its bond-buying stimulus and start the day it starts hiking rates.

The Fed will have a new meeting at Jan 28 – 29. In December they announced that they will reduce its monthly bond-buying program with $10 billion. The reason why they pay $75 billion instead of $85 billion is the recovery in the labor market. The QE program they started has helped the S&P 500 to reach a new high from a 12-year low in 2009.

Market makers will look at earnings numbers now. Many retailers will probably deliver good fourth quarter reports, but what about the banks? Next week we will see reports from Bank of America, Goldman Sachs Group and JP Morgan Chase & Co. That will be interesting numbers.

A slow start in the stock market so far in 2014 have boosted gold prices. Gold ended a 12-year bull run and lost 28% of its value last year. Economic data has showed us that the U.S economy is gaining steam. If the number today exceeds investors expectations, gold will probably go to $1200 or below.

Important news today: Non-Farm Employment Change & Unemployment Rate at 8:30am.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | January 9, 2014 · 2:24 pm

Factores that moves the gold price

Gold has always been revered as a symbol of wealth and prosperity. Gold reminds us of the Egyptian Pharaohs and the voyage of Columbus to the New World. Gold has also been used as currency and as a way to prop up the fiat money.

The U.S put the dollar on the gold and silver standard in 1792, and that is one of the most important moves to gold and silver-backed currency.

President Richard Nixon removed the gold standard in 1971 (179 years later). As you can understand; it had a huge impact of the gold-price around the globe. In 1980, the gold price went from $35 an ounce to a record high of $850 an ounce. That is above $2000 an ounce adjusted for inflation. On March 19, 2008, gold price hit a high of $1,022,40.

You can buy gold on these Gold Exchanges:

The futures contract for gold is traded at the

New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) through its Commodity Exchange (COMEX) division via open outcry.

It is also traded electronically through the Chicago Board of Trade (eCBOT),

India’s National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX),

Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange (DGCX),

Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) and

Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM).

The gold supply will not be able to meet the demand in less than 45 years. Worldwide gold production will continue to underperform against worldwide demand.

The World Gold Council estimates that the total gold mined annually is about 2,500 metric tonnes. 3,500 metric tonnes of gold is used in the jewelry, investment and commercial industry. It is difficult to determine where the last 1,000-ton gold shortfall will come from.

It is widespread commercial use of gold as a coating on electrical connectors. They use it on video cables, audio, to computers, component cables and connectors.

India is the biggest consumer og gold worldwide, with an annual consumption estimated at 700 tons a year. India`s estimated gold demand at US$30 billion by 2015.

IMF (The International Monetary Fund) and WAG (Washington Agreement on Gold, have a very strict requirements in gold sales: less than 400 tons per year. The members can`t use gold to back or replace their currency.

The gold prices has been volatile with extreme pricing and the most extreme of any commodity on the market. Gold has cyclically come into and out of favor as an investment.

The demand for gold for use as electrical conductivity will historically continue a long time to come.

The big question is whether the gold will continue as a viable inflationary hedge? It remains to be seen…….

News today: Unemployment Claims at 8:30am, 30 Year Bond Auction at 1:01pm.

gold_price_wobbles_as_liquidation_intensifies

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | January 8, 2014 · 11:48 am

Health-care bull

The stock indices are up and the fear goes down. Vix is down 4,7%, trading at 12,92. People are bullish and now it is time for the companies to deliver. The sentiment is still very high, so it will be interesting to see the companies economical numbers and their earnings growth.

2013 was an extremely good year in the stock market, but I don`t think 2014 is going to be the same. We did not see a big correction last year. It all went up. But this year will probably be different. It is headed for some corrections and this year will be more volatile than last year.

Three rounds of QE have helped the indices to increase and reach a new all time high. The S&P 500 is up 173% from its twelve-year low in 2009. Janet Yellen will replace Ben Bernanke as a FED chairman on Jan 31. Janet Yellen won Senate confirmation (56-26 votes) to become the 15th chairman of the FED.

The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index is up 1,4%. Health-care shares in the S&P 500 is up 0,3% in 2014, and this is the most among the ten main industries. Investors are waiting for the Fed minutes today, and news about the job report on friday. This is important news that can drive the market.

Today, we will know what outgoing Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke really want to do with the gradual tapering of $10 billion a month. Today`s minutes will tell us that this was a narrower view to some few FOMC members or not.

Follow the oil price now. This is a risky bet. The oil price can plunge and Opec can face huge problems. If this is the scenario, I think it will be very good news for the U.S consumers. Who want cheaper gasoline?

Middle East is the key and U.S Secretary of State John Kerry are working with difficult cases like Shia-dominated government in Baghdad, the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS), Al Qaeda’s fast-growing franchise operating in Syria, Sunni groups marginalized by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki’s authoritarian policies, Egypt, Tunisia and energy producers like Nigeria, Venezuela and Russia.

I mention this because it all affects the oil price, and what`s happend in this areas can change the game very fast. This is a big risk in 2014. So, the happenings can drive the oil prices up or down. It depends on whats happening?

The unemployment data from EU yesterday was disappointing. In Italy the unemployment rate is at the all-time high of 12,6% (for November), and for the broader EU unemployment, the rate is now at 12,1%. Just below its record 12,2%. The unemployment rate is U.S is just above 7%.

It looked like we had a game changer in November – December last year, but take a look at the chart below. CRB have turned around and are still declining. It is below 50 MA and I will wait for this to turn up again.

New today: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 8:15am, Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30am, 10 Year Note Auction at 1:01pm, FOMC Meeting Minutes at 2:00pm.

CRB 07012014

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | January 7, 2014 · 1:46 pm

Buy Gold or not

U.S. equities traded lower for the third consecutive trading session in 2014. This is the worst start for stocks since 2005. Nikkei was trading down for a second day on Tuesday. European stocks is going in the opposite direction. All the European indices is green right now.

The predictions about gold is mixed. Some hedge funds are buying gold now, and they are very bullish on this precious metal. Other market makers are bearish and say the price will fall down to about $1000.

Goldman Sachs in New York expect the gold price to decline to $1050 at the end of this year 2014 (report from Nov. 20). Gold prices increased from December 2008 to June 2011 as the Fed expanded its balance sheet through debt purchases. The interest rate was low and it was in a U.S recession. They did all this because they wanted growth. The record of the Bullion was $1,923,70. A record reached in September 2011.

We are probably at a crossroads here. Fed will start to purchase bonds to $75 billion (from $85 billion) this month. The Fed will try to reduce its QE in $10 billion increments over the next 7 meetings. The program will hopefully end in December.

It is probably best to sit and wait and have a look at the inflation before any decision on gold is made. The precious metal is still trading above $1200 which is a strong support.

News today: Trade Balance at 8:30am.

gold_price_wobbles_as_liquidation_intensifies

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | December 27, 2013 · 1:52 pm

Prepare for next year

It was not so hard to earn money in 2013 if you invested in U.S stocks. 9 out of 10 stocks in the S&P 500 was in positive territory. But everything associated with gold gave you losses. Did you sell the gold related investments in 2013 and what are you gonna do with it next year?

The gold is down about 30% in 2013, so owning a stake in a gold mine was not the smart way to make money this year. The worst U.S large Cap stocks was Newmont Mining. The second largest gold producer is down about 50%, and 30% of its corporate office staff is eliminated.

They are not only building cars in China. They are building factories to meet the demand for cars because the sales of automobiles are surging in China. The main partner of Ford Motor is Chongqing Changan Automobile Co. (000625). Changan`s earnings per share is up 400% and are the best International stock!

To be an investor is like being a school student. You have to do your homework every day. I don`t say you have to follow every stock you have in your portfolio with every tick of intraday trading.

What I prefer is to follow the stocks and the stock market for important changes over time. Sometimes it is important to evaluate and update the portfolio, like now, in the year end.

You can save money and take advantage of last minute tax savings in preparation of your portfolio. If you do all the things alone, you may do some work. You have to prepare your portfolio for the next year. I have created a few things to consider:

  1. Tax planning. Take a good look at your portfolio and check your winners and losers. You can offset capital gains with capital losses. If you have lost everything in one stock, you can sell it before the end of the year to offset any pending gains you may have on other stocks. Check the IRS rules and talk with a tax adviser before you take any tax decisions.

  1. Goals. What is your goals for 2014? What have happened so far this year? What do you think will happen next year? What is your plan for next year? Do you want to spend more money in the financial markets? How will your economy be next year? marriage or divorce? Some kids? What about you family situation? Some dramatic changes in 2013, or next year? You get the idea. Create a trading plan for 2014.

  2. The right balance. Do you have all you eggs in one bag? What is your mix today. Do you only go for stocks? Do you have bonds? Currency? Do you have the right mix in your portfolio or do you need some adjustments?

2013 have been a great year in the stock market. Many investors have done it better than the market in 2013. Is this going to continue next year? Try to follow the market and read the news and do as best as you can to understand them. Don`t always listen to everything people say on TV, and think by yourself. Be smart and look for great opportunities and be a winner in the market next year!

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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