Tag Archives: Gold prices

by | March 27, 2014 · 1:42 pm

Gold @ 6-week low

 

Take a look at the gold price today. Down -1,24%, trading at $1,295,20. Silver is now below $20, trading at 19,67. Down -1,55%, followed by copper which is down -0,98%, trading at $298,15. Not good for the commodities at the moment, but that`s why I said I`m not bullish, but less bearish on commodities.

Gold

Gold prices fell to a six week low yesterday. Declining on more technical selling pressure. The Fed of St. Louis president James Bullard said the U.S economy is improving and sees the unemployment below 6% at the end of this year.

European stocks rallied yesterday, as the European Central Bank have an idea to embark on further monetary policy stimulus due to concerns about deflation in the Euro zone. In addition; the Fed issued a report that was deemed as less dovish than investors expected.

Bears next downside breakout price objective is closing prices below a technical support at $1300,00. It is the macro-news that drives the metal prices and the down trend in copper is in a three-month old downtrend in the daily bar chart.

In a new report released yesterday, Barclays have revised their gold price forecast for 2014 from $1205/oz to $1250/oz. Other average price forecast for 2014 from Barclays is silver, $19 an ounce. China has become the world`s largest gold-consuming nation, and Barclays expect the gold consumption will continue to grow.

A key for gold will be whether indian authorities ease restrictions on gold imports meant to control the current-account deficit. “We think a decision likely will not be made until after the end of the fiscal year, and perhaps more likely not until after (spring) elections,” Barclays said. “Such a move would provide the next cushion of support for gold prices, in our view.”

“We think the extent of the decline in copper prices is overdone since micro trends have likely bottomed, though macro concerns and stock overhang take some of the potential upside off our Q2 price forecast,” Barclays said. “China is now the biggest risk — in both directions.

Reports today:

08:30 AM ET Unemployment Claims
08:30 AM ET FOMC Member Pianalto Speaks
08:30 AM ET Final GDP q/q
08:30 AM ET Final GDP Price Index q/q
10:00 AM ET Pending Home Sales
10:30 AM ET Natural Gas Storage

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

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by | February 26, 2014 · 1:53 pm

Gold price forecasts

Gold seems to have started a new bull market and the gold price is near a four-month high. Silver is at its highest since October 2013. A report from Street Research say that Chinese monetary authorities may be planning to convert the yuan into a gold-backed international currency. Primarily to deliver the dollar its comeuppance.

 

Data from CFTC shows that large players like hedge funds and other portfolio managers boosted their long exposures by 31% as on February 18. Gold prices should rebound because of the shift in the market from QE to tapering and global investor perception regarding currency values.

 

Technical selling, dollar`s strength, the sustained rise in equity and the Fed`s taper is the primary factors that caused the most recent fall in gold. The chart below is a study of the gold triggers since 1970:

Goldprice 1970 - 2014

The correlations between the gold price and the country’s balance sheet have turned negative lately. Combined assets of the U.S Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB) and BOJ could reach somewhere between $8 – 9 trillion in 2014. The analysts warn it can stay there for a while.

 

Liquidity and currency perception can drive the gold price movements rather than traditional supply – demand analytics. Chinese demand and the likelihood that Indian restrictions on gold imports could be lifted are macro factors that can be positive on gold prices.

 

The analysts expect that Central Banks would be strong buyers of gold in the future too. The analysts observe a 98% correlation between the US public debt and gold prices. With federal debt projected to rise to World-War-II levels by 2038, gold prices could be headed much higher.

 

Mining companies have adjusted their business models to the new low price environment and it is expected that the mining companies will sustain the performance and profit from it in the future. Commodity experts say India is playing a key role in the gold price.

 

The forecasts for gold are an average about $1300 per oz in 2014 estimates Sterne Agee. Silver is forecast at $23 per oz. The gold can vary from high $1,450 and a low of $1,100, while silver can reach $25 per oz.

Reports today:

10:00 AM ET New home sales

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

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by | January 24, 2014 · 2:45 pm

Gold is up

CEO Jamie Sokalsky in Barrick Gold (ABX) expects the reserves and productions will fall after the biggest annual price decline in gold since 1981. They will recalculate its reserves at a gold price of $1,100 an ounce and that is down from $1,500 an ounce a year ago. That is resulting in a decrease in its reserve base.

Gold production will be lower this year because of assets sales, while they are focusing on more profitable mines. They have closed its Pierina mine in Peru and in addition they have reduced the output from the Cortez gold mine in the U.S.A. They also expect the Aldivar copper mine in Chile to produce less in 2014.

Sokalsky expects a write down on its Pascua-Lama project and they are looking for other asset-value reductions. Barrick Gold is the biggest whale among the gold stocks, but along with the declining gold price we have seen, Barrick`s Market Cap has plummeted 50%.

Barrick`s management has been effective and not wasted their time during the declining gold prices. They have used the time wisely, sold assets, reduced the debt, conserved cash, implemented accounting impairments, and still cutting costs. They are moving in the right direction with a lower cost structure.

This story is not unique, as it is the same story for Newmont (NEM), and Goldcorp (GG). As the gold prices has plummeted we have been witnessed to a massive write-down. Barrick Gold is down -43,3% (1 YR), but are up 9,5% so far in 2014. Is the bottom behind us?

Newmont is down -43,8% (1 YR), but are up 9,3% in 2014. Goldcorp is down only -35,5% (1 YR), up 11% this year. The Junior Gold miners ETF (GDXJ) is up 19,5% this year (-53,8% 1 YR), while Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) is up 12,3% (-46,8% 1 YR).

Endeavour Silver Corp (EXK) has skyrocket this year, trading at $24,50. Up 24% in 2014. Silver Standard Resources Inc (SSRI) is up 20,1% so far this year. Silvercrest Miners (SVLC) is up 19%, Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd (SZSMF) is down 1,1%, while Taho Resources Inc (TAHO) is up 6,2% in 2014. Silver seems to be a better investment so far.

No major reports today.

gold_price_wobbles_as_liquidation_intensifies

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication

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by | January 10, 2014 · 2:20 pm

U.S. nonfarm payrolls data

Yesterday we saw another mixed trading session, and today market participants will wait for the job report at 08:30 ET. The U.S stock index futures is up before the data that shows us that American employers last year added the most workers since 2005.

It is probably added 197,000 jobs in December, which means 2,27 million jobs in 2013 and that will be the strongest year in 8 years. The unemployment rate remain at a five-year low, landing on 7% in December last year. A strong report job data today could make the Fed to reduce its bond-buying stimulus and start the day it starts hiking rates.

The Fed will have a new meeting at Jan 28 – 29. In December they announced that they will reduce its monthly bond-buying program with $10 billion. The reason why they pay $75 billion instead of $85 billion is the recovery in the labor market. The QE program they started has helped the S&P 500 to reach a new high from a 12-year low in 2009.

Market makers will look at earnings numbers now. Many retailers will probably deliver good fourth quarter reports, but what about the banks? Next week we will see reports from Bank of America, Goldman Sachs Group and JP Morgan Chase & Co. That will be interesting numbers.

A slow start in the stock market so far in 2014 have boosted gold prices. Gold ended a 12-year bull run and lost 28% of its value last year. Economic data has showed us that the U.S economy is gaining steam. If the number today exceeds investors expectations, gold will probably go to $1200 or below.

Important news today: Non-Farm Employment Change & Unemployment Rate at 8:30am.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | January 9, 2014 · 2:24 pm

Factores that moves the gold price

Gold has always been revered as a symbol of wealth and prosperity. Gold reminds us of the Egyptian Pharaohs and the voyage of Columbus to the New World. Gold has also been used as currency and as a way to prop up the fiat money.

The U.S put the dollar on the gold and silver standard in 1792, and that is one of the most important moves to gold and silver-backed currency.

President Richard Nixon removed the gold standard in 1971 (179 years later). As you can understand; it had a huge impact of the gold-price around the globe. In 1980, the gold price went from $35 an ounce to a record high of $850 an ounce. That is above $2000 an ounce adjusted for inflation. On March 19, 2008, gold price hit a high of $1,022,40.

You can buy gold on these Gold Exchanges:

The futures contract for gold is traded at the

New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) through its Commodity Exchange (COMEX) division via open outcry.

It is also traded electronically through the Chicago Board of Trade (eCBOT),

India’s National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX),

Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange (DGCX),

Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) and

Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM).

The gold supply will not be able to meet the demand in less than 45 years. Worldwide gold production will continue to underperform against worldwide demand.

The World Gold Council estimates that the total gold mined annually is about 2,500 metric tonnes. 3,500 metric tonnes of gold is used in the jewelry, investment and commercial industry. It is difficult to determine where the last 1,000-ton gold shortfall will come from.

It is widespread commercial use of gold as a coating on electrical connectors. They use it on video cables, audio, to computers, component cables and connectors.

India is the biggest consumer og gold worldwide, with an annual consumption estimated at 700 tons a year. India`s estimated gold demand at US$30 billion by 2015.

IMF (The International Monetary Fund) and WAG (Washington Agreement on Gold, have a very strict requirements in gold sales: less than 400 tons per year. The members can`t use gold to back or replace their currency.

The gold prices has been volatile with extreme pricing and the most extreme of any commodity on the market. Gold has cyclically come into and out of favor as an investment.

The demand for gold for use as electrical conductivity will historically continue a long time to come.

The big question is whether the gold will continue as a viable inflationary hedge? It remains to be seen…….

News today: Unemployment Claims at 8:30am, 30 Year Bond Auction at 1:01pm.

gold_price_wobbles_as_liquidation_intensifies

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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