Tag Archives: VIX

Cboe is the first to trade with bitcoin futures

Bitcoin has so far been a great deal for many investors in 2017. The price have skyrocketed, and something is about to change right now. Cboe Global Markets, which is the Chicago-based exchange group, launched bitcoin futures on Sunday. That can be a game changer.

Cboe President Chris Concannon is also planning to launch other cryptocurrency`s, and other firms like CME Group has hinted they will launch bitcoin futures very soon, but most of them have a “wait and see” approach.

 

 

As you can see from the chart above, the price is down. The new product will give investors the opportunity to pay a high price for its insurance, and its traders must put a lot of money on the table for their bets.

Bitcoin can be very volatile, and Cboe knows that. Traders are required to have 44% of the bitcoin settlement price set aside for their bet. This is a down-payment for their risk, and margins for the futures are under 10%. VIX margins can get up to 50% because of their risk.

Many are negative to bitcoin, and TD Ameritrade is taking a «wait and see» approach and wont provide the product for clients. Nor will Fidelity, Etrade and Charles Schwab. Two of the largest brokers; JPMorgan and Citigroup didnt start to participate in the market Sunday. Nor did Societe Generale, Interactive Brokers and Wedbush, according to Financial Times.

But anyway, Wall Street are watching the market, and so far there are a number of concerns over Gemini and that is low volumes on the exchange and system outages. Gemini is the cryptocurrency exchange founded by the Winklevoss twins. Cboe is basing its bitoin contracts on pricing on Gemini.

Gemini is still very small and the exchange sees only 1,4% of trading in the entire bitcoin market, and its activity can`t paint an accurate picture of the broader crypto-market. With its low volume and the lack of liquidity, it is also very easy to manipulate.

Cryptocurrency volumes topped as much as $26 billion in a single trading day, but trading firms are under pressure to enhance their technology. The ticker code for bitcoins is XBT and the trading began yesterday, on Sunday, December 10, 2017.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Fear Index plunged

Wow, what a rally in Japan, up 579 points to 15,111, which is up +3,98%. Gold and Silver is also up, but they are moving like turtles. Up 0,57% and 0,72%. Crude oil (brent) is down -0,28%, trading at 85,92. It will continue to be big opportunities for day traders now, as the market will still move up and down.

Vix 20.10.2014

(Picture: Fear Index)

The appetite for volatility is bad for the Fed, and it didn`t take long for them to respond to last week`s market turbulence. A representative for the Fed said last week that the Fed could slow its retreat from a highly accommodating monetary policy, and this is something investors like to hear.

There were some rumors last week that the Fed could embark on QE4 to support asset prices. Not only investors are nervous at times like this. Also Fed are. So, what can we expect the coming days and weeks in the market?

We need to look at charts and data. The S&P 500`s 200 MA price is 1,906, and the stock market was trading below that technical level. That level was a floor during the selloff since November 2012, and the average price of the S&P 500 is a good indicator to be bullish on.

This is not the first time that have happened, and we have seen this many times. The mentality now is «buy the dip», as there is pretty good U.S fundamentals out there, which is making investors interested in buying again.

The fear index plunged -12,74% on friday, and the gap in the curve in the Vix futures, gave investors optimism. If we compare the cost of the options that protect against losses in shares in November versus those timed to expire in 90 days, you can predict the future. On friday, selling dropped down 3% on October 15, while near term options skyrocket 25% above those timed to January, and this is the most in three years.

We are close to the end of the sell-off in the equity market, as the bottom has been seen and this is historically a time for bottom fishing. It has happened six times when Vix has surged above its own futures like we saw the last week. The inverted curves is historically a sign that investors think the spike is coming to an end.

I`m exited about Apple Inc later today after the closing bell. Are they able to beat the Wall Street? It`s estimated that Apple Inc will report revenue of $39,8 billion ($37,5 last year) and earnings of $1,31 per share ($1,18 last year).

iPhone sales is what people will look for, and it`s estimated to see that Apple may have sold about 38 million iPhones. A strong dollar can help them a lot to beat the revenue estimate, but what about Apple Pay? Is it gonna be launched today?

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Health-care bull

The stock indices are up and the fear goes down. Vix is down 4,7%, trading at 12,92. People are bullish and now it is time for the companies to deliver. The sentiment is still very high, so it will be interesting to see the companies economical numbers and their earnings growth.

2013 was an extremely good year in the stock market, but I don`t think 2014 is going to be the same. We did not see a big correction last year. It all went up. But this year will probably be different. It is headed for some corrections and this year will be more volatile than last year.

Three rounds of QE have helped the indices to increase and reach a new all time high. The S&P 500 is up 173% from its twelve-year low in 2009. Janet Yellen will replace Ben Bernanke as a FED chairman on Jan 31. Janet Yellen won Senate confirmation (56-26 votes) to become the 15th chairman of the FED.

The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index is up 1,4%. Health-care shares in the S&P 500 is up 0,3% in 2014, and this is the most among the ten main industries. Investors are waiting for the Fed minutes today, and news about the job report on friday. This is important news that can drive the market.

Today, we will know what outgoing Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke really want to do with the gradual tapering of $10 billion a month. Today`s minutes will tell us that this was a narrower view to some few FOMC members or not.

Follow the oil price now. This is a risky bet. The oil price can plunge and Opec can face huge problems. If this is the scenario, I think it will be very good news for the U.S consumers. Who want cheaper gasoline?

Middle East is the key and U.S Secretary of State John Kerry are working with difficult cases like Shia-dominated government in Baghdad, the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS), Al Qaeda’s fast-growing franchise operating in Syria, Sunni groups marginalized by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki’s authoritarian policies, Egypt, Tunisia and energy producers like Nigeria, Venezuela and Russia.

I mention this because it all affects the oil price, and what`s happend in this areas can change the game very fast. This is a big risk in 2014. So, the happenings can drive the oil prices up or down. It depends on whats happening?

The unemployment data from EU yesterday was disappointing. In Italy the unemployment rate is at the all-time high of 12,6% (for November), and for the broader EU unemployment, the rate is now at 12,1%. Just below its record 12,2%. The unemployment rate is U.S is just above 7%.

It looked like we had a game changer in November – December last year, but take a look at the chart below. CRB have turned around and are still declining. It is below 50 MA and I will wait for this to turn up again.

New today: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 8:15am, Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30am, 10 Year Note Auction at 1:01pm, FOMC Meeting Minutes at 2:00pm.

CRB 07012014

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Hi Tech Earnings

VIX have plummeted, and are now trading at 13,04. It simply tells us that there is no fear out there. Indices are setting new ATH, but Dow seems to be a little bit calm. Asian markets are up today. Nikkei rose to a three-week high and added 0,9% to 14,693,57. The highest since Sept. 27. The Topix advanced 0,6% to 1,212,36.

Google is for the fist time above 1000 dollars. Shares gained 13,8% and ended the trading session at $1011,41. Google`s earnings rised the S&P technology sector to outperform all other sectors. It rose 1,8%. Now it is time for Netflix and Apple. I look forward to see their earnings. This is money machines and they should beat the numbers, and that will make the momentum to continue this week.

U.S debt is now $17.075 trillion. That`s a lot of money, but I`m glad we can focus on the earnings now and not the debt. 62,2% of the 98 companies that have reportet earnings so far on S&P 500 have topped Wall Street`s earnings expectations. I look forward to the earnings this week.

5,57 billion shares was traded on friday and that is slightly above the average. Gold is back above the support level at $1300. If gold is not the safe heaven, VIX should be the new one. Right now VIX is closed at 13,04. News today: Existing Home Sales at 10:00am.

Apple

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Green friday

It`s optimism in the stock market again. People belive the lawmakers will solve the dept-ceiling problems. China rebound and BDI is increasing. Everything looks great. That`s in the long term. Right now the futures is down about 1 percent.

What an end of the week. Everything was green. Dow Jones was up 0,51 percent, to 15,072,60. The S&P 500 climbed 0,71 percent to 1,690,50, and Nasdaq rose up 0,89 percent to 3,807,75. 5,2 billion shares canged hands on U.S excanges, and that is 9,6 percent below the three-month average.

People belive that the lawmakers will reach a deal to end the budget impasse. That`s why we see the excanges is green now. The investors are very optimistic, and 6,4 days is the average of the days the spend to solve the problems in capitol hill.

S&P 500 is up 19 percent so far this year and from it`s 2009 low, it is up amazingly 155 percent. VIX dropped 5,3 percent today and are now down to 16,74 percent. The equity volatility gauge has fallen 7,1 percent so far this year.

China is back too, and now it seems to be a good time to invest in South East Asia. The industrial profits rose 24,2 percent in August this year. In addition; I see Baltic Dry Index has broken it`s 200 day moving average. That is good news for the economy.

Gold is still a little bit above 1300, and gold have not reacted on the shutdown earlier since 1976. The duration shutdwon has varied from one to twentyone days. Two years ago during the dept- ceiling, the gold rose from $1500 in july to $1800 in august 2011. A nice safe-heaven rally.

There`s no news to watch out for today or tomorrow. What I am looking for this week is what`s happening in capitol hill. It`s up to the republicans. People expect to see a solution and that`s why they are so optimistic. This will be an exciting week.

Markets up

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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