Tag Archives: Gold

by | February 10, 2014 · 2:24 pm

Gold is up

Gold continue to go up, now trading at 1271,50. Nikkei rose +1,77%. Up 255,93 points. The European markets is mixed today, but are not moving much. The U.S markets ended the week in green on friday. Dow +1,06%, S&P 500 +1,33% and Nasdaq +1,69%. Nokia is up 9,27%. Very good!

I will look for earnings reports from Tata Motors (TTM) today. Forecast EPS is $0,87 ($0,47 last year). The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending Dec 2013. Many other earnings reports is coming out later this week.

Alibaba is trying to take full control over AutoNavi Holdings (AMAP). The stock is trading at $16,54. Up +7,26%. AutoNavi holdings is up 27,87% AH. EPS growth: -128%. Revenue growth: -6,02%. (Last Qtr).

Take a look a the gold this week. It`s still moving up. Sometimes it goes in the opposite direction of the equity market, and sometimes not. They can follow each other, so don`t forget to set «stop loss» if you are daytrading.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | February 4, 2014 · 2:18 pm

The new wallets

Apple:

Yes, the new wallets is here. Fact is that the new wallets have been on the market for many years now. Some people expected to see a Near Field Communication chip for mobile payments when Apple launched the new Iphone 5 a couple of year ago, but ended up disappointed.

 

Smartphones are predicted to be the new wallets and forecast for mobile payments in 2014 is $7,5B. In 2013 it was $2,1B, and $0,6B in 2012. If this is taking off we can see mobile payments of $70B in 2016. Mobile payments in China have doubled in 2013 and ended up to 218,6 Billion Yuan.

 

The most critical element in this business is the security, but Apple seems to have the right solution for all the customers waiting to pay by smartphones. Apple signed a new patent (#20140019367) on January 16.

 

What about their competitors like Visa, Mastercard, Paypal and others? They should do something before it is too late. Once Apple start with their new mobile payment solution, the card users will slowly disappear. This threath is too big to ignore I think.

 

Stocks & Commodities:

Petrobras (PBR) plummeted 5,8% yesterday and that is an eight year low level, now trading at 13.85 Brazilian reais ($5.69). This is the lowest since july 29, 2005. The overall markets plummeted yesterday, like they historically do when a new Fed chairman comes in, but Twitter went up +1,16%. What is going on here? Any report surprise?

 

Gold is not taking off despite the bearish markets we see now. Right now the gold is trading at $1.252.80, down -0,52%. Silver is also down today, trading at $19.35, down -0,30%. Copper is trading at $319.85, up today +0,47%.

 

Reports:

10:00:00 Factory Orders Forecast: -1,90% Previous: 1,80%
10:00:00 Economic Optimism Forecast: 46,1 Previous: 45,2

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | January 30, 2014 · 1:38 pm

Facebook up 12,4%

So far this year, Facebook is down -2,0%. Yesterday, Mark Zuckerberg launched the new report FQ4earnings, and after that, the stock jumped 12,4% in after hours trading. That is pretty good for a stock that everybody predict will die like a virus and lose about 80% of its users by 2017.

Researchers at University College London stated that Facebook is «dead and buried». The teenagers has escaped and Facebook is not cool anymore. The fact is that Facebook has grown its EPS and revenue last eight quarters, and they have 847 million active users.

Facebooks fourth-quarter revenue topped analysts estimates. Revenue rose 63% to $2,59B. Mobile promotions generated $1,25B and accounted for 53% of advertising revenue. Previous quarter was $49%. Mobile is the key for Facebook, so I think it`s going to be a great battle between Facebook and their competitor Twitter in the future.

Net income rose to $523million, or 20 cents a share. That`s up 17 cents a share from a year ago. As an educated marketer, I will follow both Facebook and Twitter for their battle on the digital-ad market. Twitter will release their first earnings as a public company feb 5. We look forward to that.

It is expected that Facebooks market share will rise to 9% by 2015, while Twitter will grab a 2% share. Facebooks average price of ads is up 92% from a year ago. It will be more quality ads instead of quantity ads. Next week they will celebrate 10 year. Happy birthday.

If the teens have gone from Facebook, where are they? They are on Instagram, and the number of people on that platform is truly remarkable, but right now they don`t have any data for this teen engagement. Facebook is the owner of Instagram.

Last year Facebook offered $3 billion to acquire Snapchat Inc. This platform is also very popular to teenagers. It`s understandable that the younger teens aren`t using Facebook`s website anymore. They have so much other alternatives.

Facebook is not only Facebook. It`s Instagram too. Instagram is growing and has doubled its user base. This mobile photo-sharing service company have 180M MAUs, and that`s pretty good compared to last years 90M MAUs.

Mark Zuckerberg says Facebook is planning to launch several new apps in 2014. They will develop more standalone mobile apps with great new experiences that separates from what you think of as Facebook today.

Facebook Messenger had a 70% growth in the last 90 days. North America still accounted for 47% of the revenue in Q4. Last month, they sold $3,85 billion of shares in a secondary offering. That is Facebook`s first share sale since going public. The stock more than doubled last year.

Holidays starts tomorrow to mark a change in the Chinese zodiac calendar from the snake to the year of the horse. On a day like this, many Chinese people buy gold as a gift and the demand is rising. As you know, the Chinese economy is growing fast, and so are the demand for jewelry, bars and coins. It rose 30% last year, and that is the highest of any nation, World Gold Council data show. Net imports of bullion from Hong Kong more than doubled last year.

Reports today: Advance GDP q/q at 8:30am, Unemployment claims at 8:30 and Pending home sales at 10:00am.

F vs T

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication

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by | January 24, 2014 · 2:45 pm

Gold is up

CEO Jamie Sokalsky in Barrick Gold (ABX) expects the reserves and productions will fall after the biggest annual price decline in gold since 1981. They will recalculate its reserves at a gold price of $1,100 an ounce and that is down from $1,500 an ounce a year ago. That is resulting in a decrease in its reserve base.

Gold production will be lower this year because of assets sales, while they are focusing on more profitable mines. They have closed its Pierina mine in Peru and in addition they have reduced the output from the Cortez gold mine in the U.S.A. They also expect the Aldivar copper mine in Chile to produce less in 2014.

Sokalsky expects a write down on its Pascua-Lama project and they are looking for other asset-value reductions. Barrick Gold is the biggest whale among the gold stocks, but along with the declining gold price we have seen, Barrick`s Market Cap has plummeted 50%.

Barrick`s management has been effective and not wasted their time during the declining gold prices. They have used the time wisely, sold assets, reduced the debt, conserved cash, implemented accounting impairments, and still cutting costs. They are moving in the right direction with a lower cost structure.

This story is not unique, as it is the same story for Newmont (NEM), and Goldcorp (GG). As the gold prices has plummeted we have been witnessed to a massive write-down. Barrick Gold is down -43,3% (1 YR), but are up 9,5% so far in 2014. Is the bottom behind us?

Newmont is down -43,8% (1 YR), but are up 9,3% in 2014. Goldcorp is down only -35,5% (1 YR), up 11% this year. The Junior Gold miners ETF (GDXJ) is up 19,5% this year (-53,8% 1 YR), while Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) is up 12,3% (-46,8% 1 YR).

Endeavour Silver Corp (EXK) has skyrocket this year, trading at $24,50. Up 24% in 2014. Silver Standard Resources Inc (SSRI) is up 20,1% so far this year. Silvercrest Miners (SVLC) is up 19%, Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd (SZSMF) is down 1,1%, while Taho Resources Inc (TAHO) is up 6,2% in 2014. Silver seems to be a better investment so far.

No major reports today.

gold_price_wobbles_as_liquidation_intensifies

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication

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by | January 13, 2014 · 2:26 pm

Earnings reports this week

Gold is up 3,63% so far this year and the precious metal is trading at $1248,5 at the moment. That is a nice bounce off of the $1200 level. It is not so good for the Dow, which is down 33 points after the bad news on friday. The job growth surprised everyone as Nonfarm payrolls rose only 74,000 in December. Some people are shocked. The S&P 500 ended up 11 points. U.S equities finished the week mixed on the news.

Raw-material prices was down 3,2% this year and this is the worst start to a year since 2007. China is the biggest user of everything, from cotton to pork to zinc and the producer prices declined in December for a 22nd straight month, and this is the longest decline since the Asian financial crises in the 1990`s.

Much has been done of the sharp fall in the unemployment rate to 6,7% and this keeps the Fed on course to start the tapering at this months January meeting, which is January 28-29.

The labour participation rate is at a 35 year low, at 62,8%. It is not a positive thing that so many people have stopped looking for work. Are they really gonna start tapering now?

Hedge funds are cutting their bullish commodity wagers now on signs of slowing economic growth in China and surplus supply.

This year started bad with the major indices trading down the first trading days of the year. This bad starts followed by bad news with only 74000 (non-farm) jobs created in December.

The markets is not as strong as we had thought it might be, and we need some good news now to kick-start the markets again. If not we could lose key support lines. A lot of information is coming out this week.

Very important news is coming from retail sales, housing data, the Fed Beige Book, and consumer sentiment. Earnings reports is on the way too. Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS), J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM), as well as general electric (GE), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Intel (INTC) are some of the large amount of earnings data that will be important to the market this week.

We need a solid week to hold onto technical support.

News today: Federal Budget Balance at 2:00pm (forecast 44,3B – previous -135,2B).

SPX 13.01.2014

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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