Tag Archives: Brexit

by | January 15, 2019 · 10:52 am

The EU deal is about a method of avoiding the return of a physical Northern Ireland border

Prime Minister Theresa May have spent over two and a half-year to negotiate with EU to leave the European Union. Later on today, the Parliament will vote on the deal and the question is not whether Mrs May loses but how badly it will be.

The opposition party will vote against her deal on Tuesday, and a defeat by more than 100 will be the worst since 1924. In other words; the Brexit deal is set to be rejected in the biggest Parliament defeat for a British government in 95 years, according to Bloomberg. 10% of the business is with the EU and 90% is outside of the EU.

More than 30 million people voted on the EU referendum in the U.K. Leave won by 51,9% to 48,1%, and the referendum turnout was 71,8%. The referendum was held on Thursday 23 June 2016. Since then, Theresa May have made a deal with the European Union.

England voted for Brexit by 53,4% to 46,6%, and Wales voted for Brexit with leave getting 52,5% vs Remain 47,5%. Scotland and Northland Ireland both wanted to stay in the EU. Scotland voted to Remain by 62% vs 38%, while Northern Ireland voted for a Brexit at 44,2%.

The idea to the European Union started right after World War II, and the idea is to avoid a war with each other by having European countries to trade together.

There are 28 countries in the EuroZone and that is not the same as the European Union which is «only» 19 countries with its own parliament, sets of rules and the same currency; the Euro.

The EU is an economic and political partnership and the idea is that countries which trade together were more likely to avoid to go to war with each other. People from the member states can move over the borders without any questions and so can goods and money.

Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty gave PM Theresa May and the EU two years to come to an agreement. Both parties scheduled to leave the EU at 11pm UK time on Friday, 29 March 2019, but a European court has ruled that the UK can decide to stop the process. It can also be extended if all the 28 EU members agree.

Communist Jeremy Corbyn wants to try to force a general election if there is no deal later today, and if the UK`s main opposition party Labour succeeds, they wants to go back to Brussels and negotiate a new version of Brexit.

PM Theresa May has warned Conservative Mps thinking of voting against the deal she has reached with the EU that they risk «no Brexit at all». That happened in another referendum which was backed by the SNP, the Green Party, Plaid Cymru, Lib Dems, some Conservatives and a large group of Labour Mps. They want the public to be given the final say, with the option to remain in the EU.

There is a 585-page withdrawal agreement. It covers the cost for the UK to leave the EU and that is an estimated £39 billion. It also proposes a method of avoiding the return of a physical Northern Ireland border.

The Northern Ireland Democratic Unionist Party will vote against the deal. They have a 310 mile land border with the EU and this is a point that dominated the Brexit talk. Nobody wants surveillance cameras at the border because the question is free cross-border flow of trade and people.

So, is it gonna be a hard border, soft border or no border at all? Both, the UK and EU agreed to put in place a «backstop» to ensure there is no hard border whatever the outcome of the trade talk between them. This is a safety net wich is good for both parties.

All the opposition parties in the House of Commons and the Labour party have said they will vote against the deal. In addition; some reports say as many as 100 are also opposed to it. The Northern Ireland Democratic Unionist Party, who PM Theresa May relies on to keep her in power, have also said they will vote against it.

PM Theresa May argues that if her deal is voted down, Britain risks leaving without a deal, and some think it will cause chaos at the ports and damage industry. Alternatively, she says, there will be «no Brexit at all».

Mrs May need at least 320 votes to pass and so far it seems to be difficult. Some say that the deal they have today is not what they voted for. Others say it is even worse than staying in the EU.

Nobody know for sure whats gonna happen if the Parliament rejects the Brexit plan, but there are a few scenarios; they can leave the EU without a deal or they can have another vote in Parliament. They can also go for another EU referendum or a general election, or Mps can remove Theresa May and start to renegotiate a deal with the EU.

If some of this happens, the Brexit date of 29 March will therefore be delayed by a few months and that should be enough to renegotiate a deal if EU agree.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

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by | September 25, 2018 · 8:03 pm

America is governed by Americans. We reject the ideology of Globalism and we embrace the doctrine of Patriotism,» Trump said.

The U.S President Donald Trump said in a UN speech today that; «Migration should not be governed by an international body. Unaccountable to our own citizens. The only long-term solution to the migration crisis is to help people build more hopeful future in their home countries. Make their countries great again.»

Brexit boss Nigel Farage said Trump`s speech was music in his ears. The best speech by Trump so far. He also said that we want to have a world in which we respect the differences that exists between our countries, rather than pretending we can all be governed by one body. Run by bureaucrats. And that’s the theme, that ran to the whole of that speech, Farage said.

Donald Trump is also the man many claims coluded with Russia. So far, without any evidence. But whats more strange is that Germany is totally controlled by Russia because they are getting from 60 – 70 percent of their energy from Russia and a new pipeline. Who is talking about that?

The German market is the largest buyer of Gazproms exports and it accounts for about 27 percent of Gazproms European exports.

Not only Trump had a speech at UN today. Macron was also having a speech, and they both talked about competing visions at the UN. Trump talked about a New World Order, while Macron talked about a different one.

«I think that were seeing a crisis of our the very foundations of todays world. Were losing our benchmarks and our functioning. This is a reflection of our failures of the past,» Macron said.

«We will never surrender America`s souverenty to an unelected, unaccountable global bureaucracy,» Trump said. America is governed by Americans. We reject the ideology of Globalism and we embrace the doctrine of Patriotism,» Trump said.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | July 30, 2018 · 9:55 pm

The European Union rose “only” 0,4 percent in Q1 of 2018

Last week I talked about America`s fantastic growth of 4,1 percent on quarter in Q2 of 2018, and this is only the beginning. It is no doubt; President Trump must be doing something right. But, what about the European Union?

GDP in the European Union rose «only» 0,4 percent on quarter in the first three months of 2018. Not much to write home about. But the growth have never been above 1 percent since the financial crisis in 2008.

The European Union reached an all time high of 1,30 percent in 1999 and that is right before the tech bubble burst. Since then it has been a dead fish, reaching an all time low of -2,60 percent in the first quarter of 2009.

At the same time we can see that the unemployment rate reached a record low of 6,80 percent in February of 2008, and that`s right before the financial crisis. It reached an all time high of 11 percent in February 2013, but in May this year it fall down to 7 percent again.

This isn`t good enough if we are living in a capitalistic world.

The European Union in Brussels are nothing more than unelected bureaucrats. Draghi and the ECB have, just like Japan and the U.S «printed» a lot of money, and will continue to do so. If they can`t turn around the ship, they need to consider a strong cheerleader.

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker had a meeting with President Trump last week. They were talking about trade, free trade and tariffs. Mr Trump`s goal is to make better deals so both the U.S and the EU can take more profit and prosper.

I think that the EU should be glad for that and they need to hurry up. The U.S is the world`s third biggest exporter, yet exports account «only» for 13 percent on GDP. Exports in the U.S reached an all time high of 215328 USD million in May this year, which is pretty impressive.

The EU has 28 member states and the biggest among them all is Germany (21 percent of total GDP), the United Kingdom (15 percent), and France (15 percent).

Exports of goods and services account for 46 percent of GDP while imports account for 42 percent, adding 4 percent of total GDP. But this is about to change. If the UK contribute with 15 percent of the total GDP in the EU, then what will happen to their growth after Brexit?

That being said; nor is the UK a success story. The British economy grew by 0,1 percent in the first three months of 2018 and well below 0,4 percent in the previous period. It is the lowest growth rate since a 0,1 percent contraction in Q4 2012.

The largest contribution to growth in the UK was from household spending at 0,2 percentage points. From the production side, the service industries made the largest contribution to GDP growth, followed by production.

Agriculture, the smallest component within the output approach of GDP made no contribution to growth to one decimal place, while construction deducted from GDP growth. The service industries increased by 0,3 percent.

Positive growth was recorded within all sub-sectors of the services industries; distribution, hotels and restaurants (0,1 percent vs -0,1 percent).

President Trump have repeatedly said that the EU have treated the US very bad. I have written many articles about that long before Mr Trump`s inauguration. The European Commission has fined Google €4,34 billion for breaching EU antitrust rules this month.

In May 2009, Intel was imposed with a 1,06 billion euro fined for abusing its market dominance on central processing units. Microsoft has been in trouble with the Commission on several occasions. In 2004, the Commission ruled that Microsoft had abused its market dominance.

In 208, the Commission fined Microsoft nearly 900 million euros for charging «unreasonable» royalty fees. In 2013, another fine of 561 million euros was imposed on Microsoft. This time for failing to comply with the Commission`s ruling that it had to allow users to more easily choose a prefered web browser.

The European Commission fined Facebook for 110 million euros in May this year in relation to its takeover of WhatsApp. Facebook acquired the messaging service in 2014 for $19 billion, but provided the Commission with misleading information about the acquisition.

In August 2016, the Commission ruled that tech giant Apple had received illegal tax benefits from Ireland worth up to 13 billion euros. Ireland was ordered to recover the unpaid tax from Apple, plus interest.

As early as 1966, British Politician Tony Benn said that «Communism run by commissars from Moscow did not work, and nor will capitalism run by commissioners in Brussels. Both deny people their right to develop in their own way.»

Now, under President Donald Trump, big companies like Apple are moving home to the United States with billions of dollars. Apple alone, are bringing in $230 billion. They will build new plants and a magnificent campus.

They will spend their money wisely and the money will be in the U.S. All this is possible because of Trump`s tax cuts and reforms. This is how you make growth.

 

 

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by | March 2, 2018 · 12:00 pm

Around 40% of voters in Italy remain undecided and no party or alliance is expected to earn an outright majority

Take a look at the history and you can clearly see that all the roads leads us back to Rome and Italy.

A country that gave the world pizza. The founder of that dish is a genius. The term pizza was first recorded in the 10th century, in a Latin manuscript from the Southern Italian town of Gaeta in Lazio.

Not only that. Rome is also the capital of Italy, and serves as the capital of the Lazio region. The Vatican City is an independent country inside the city boundaries of Rome, which means Rome has been often defined as capital of two states. 4,3 million residents live in the metropolitan City of Rome, and most of them head to the polls on Sunday in a vote that will be closely watched by European leaders.

Italys election on Sunday will test Europes nerves, because it can make instability in the eurozones thrid-largest economy. It should be a great place on earth, but it isnt. Italy`s unemployment rate rose to 11,1 percent in January 2018, and the youth unemployment rate fell to 31,5 percent, which is the lowest since December 2011.

The Italian economy advanced by 0,3 percent on quarter in the three months to December of 2017, so the growth is very slow. The Italian stock marked plummeted during the financial crisis ten years ago. The unemployment rate was at its lowest in 2007, but skyrocketed after the crisis.

Italy`s Government debt reached an all time high of 132 percent in 2016 which is more than the U.S but it dropped to 131,5 percent last year. Italy need a change, but that change can be painful and Italy can be drown into months of further political deadlock.

Around 40% of voters remain undecided and no party or alliance is expected to earn an outright majority, according to analysts.

European leaders are watching this election closely because so far, polls are telling us that the populist, anti-European Union Five Star Movement (M5S) is the biggest party. Twice as big as Forza Italia and the Democratic party at the second place.

The M5S is founded by Beppe Grillo who is a popular comedian and blogger. The party is considered populist, anti-establishment, environmentalist, anti-globalist, and Eurosceptic. At the 2013 general election the M5S was the most voted party.

People in Italy and many of their parties are euroskeptic, and one issue has dominated the pre-election debate, and that is immigration. Hundreds of thousands have arrived from Africa to Italy recently, and the debate over immigration has highlighted racial tensions ahead of Sunday`s vote.

Right-wing parties have pushed an anti-immigration agenda, and former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has warned that all the migrants in Italy has caused «serious social alarm,» and said that more than 600 000 undocumented migrants must be deported.

Migration has been a serious issue in Italy in many decades. When the Pope look outside the window in the Vatican, he can see some right-wing parties, but also some neo-fascist political parties.

Fascism is also coming from Italy. The founder of fascism is Benito Mussolini and he outlined three principles of a fascist philosophy.

  1. Everything in the state. The Government is supreme and the country is all-encompassing, and all within it must confront the ruling body, often a dictator.
  2. Nothing outside the state. The country must grow and the implied goal of any fascist nation is to rule the country, and have every human submit to the government.
  3. Nothing against the state. Any type of questioning the government is not to be tolerated. If you do not see things our way, you are wrong. If you do not agree with the government, you cannot be allowed to live and taint the minds of the rest of the good citizens.

The use of militarism was implied only as a means to accomplish one of the three above principles, mainly to keep people and rest of the world in line. Fascist countries are known for their harmony and lack of internal strife. There are no conflicting parties or elections in fascist countries.

There were a demonstration in Maceratata on February 10, and Italian protesters hold a banner reading «Against fascism, racism and sexism, everyday, in all cities.» Similar to how it was in Italy about 100 years ago, but it was a different march. The opposite.

The March on Rome was an organized mass demonstration in October 1922, which resulted in Benito Mussolini`s National Fascist Party. Fascists saw WWI as a revolution that brought massive changes to the nature of war, society, the state and technology.

Italy has an unproven new system in place for the voters. On top of that there is a bloc of undecided voters, so analysts say that Italy is headed toward a hung parliament. Berlusconi`s right-wing coalition can win. So can the Democratic party, Forza Italia and other centrist allies. It can also be a populist government of M5S and Northern League.

Another option is that the Gentiloni government will continue like it is today. If so, they will start long discussions on whether to build an all-party technical government.

The political situation in Italy right now, with its government instability, economic problems and repeated elections are building up to a perfect storm. It can be harmful for one of the main European democracies, but it can be very harmful for an already weak European Union in an already weak continental alliance too. Especially after Brexit.

Rome is called the «Caput Mundi» (Capital of the World). Rome is also regarded as the birthplace of Western civilisation and by some as the first ever metropolis. Rome is the 3rd most visited in the European Union, and Colosseum are among the world`s most visited tourist destinations.

After the fall of the Western Empire, which marked the beginning of the Middle Ages, Rome fell under the political control of the Papacy. All of this is a part of an evolution, so the show must go on.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | January 12, 2018 · 4:00 am

World Economic Forum`s motto is “Committed to improving the state of the world,” and President Trump will attend

Every year at the end of January, it is time for World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos. The forum was founded in 1971 by Klaus Schwab. A German-born business professor at the University of Geneva. First named the “European Management Forum”, and then it changed its name to the World Economic Forum in 1987.

Its mission is cited as “committed to improve the state of the world by engaging business, political, academic, and other leaders of society to shape global, regional, and industry agendas”. President Trump is a business man and he will join the elite at the forum in Davos this time.

The meeting at Davos is synonymous with wealth and elite prestige and Presidents have therefore been concerned to participate because it would send wrong signals. Mr Trump will be the fist sitting President since Bill Clinton in 2000 to attend. Mr Trump is a business man and have an agenda. A message.

That being said; don`t forget the forums motto: “Committed to improving the state of the world.”

Mr Trump is finish with his first year as a President at the White House, and so far he has done a lot of good things, not only for the USA, but also for the rest of the world. But this is only the beginning.

The meeting in Davos brings together some 2,500 top business leaders, international political leaders, economists, and journalists for up to four days to discuss the most pressing issues facing the world.

But Trump`s agenda is not to make the world great again, but the USA. He will also try to sell his «America first» agenda to the world leaders. It is not difficult to understand that he also want to promote his policies to strengthen American businesses, their industry and their workers.

What Trump is doing in the U.S will also affect the rest of the world. For instance, a corporate tax cut in the U.S will also affect other countries. For all I know, maybe other countries will follow his strategy and cut the taxes as well.

Trump is also a great negotiator and he told Stoltenberg at NATO to pay the bills to the U.S Navy, and you know what; they did. This is brilliant. He is making USA more safe, but also NATO members and the European Union more safe.

I think Mr Trump will try to sell his economic growth agenda on the world stage and speak with the World Bank and the IMF, and I really look forward to his speech. It can be full of surprises. His administration said that Trump`s delegation to Davos will be large.

Mr Trump recognized Jerusalem as Israels capital. That can also be an issue if you think of the forums motto: “Committed to improving the state of the world.” We have seen this before.

At the 1994 annual meeting, Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres and PLO chairman Yasser Arafat reached a draft agreement on Gaza and Jerico. Two years earlier, South African President F.W de Klerk met with Nelson Mandela and Chief Mangosuthu Buthelezi, which was the first joint appearance outside South Africa.

North Korea was invited to Davos in 2016, “in view of positive signs coming out of the country,” the WEF noted. North Korea has not been attending the WEF since 1998. The invitation was accepted but after their nuclear test on January 6, 2016 (only days before the meeting), the invitation was revoked.

North Korea`s delegation was made subject to “existing and possible forthcoming sanctions.”

The country protested and called the decision by the WEF managing board a “sudden and irresponsible” move, but the WEF committee maintained the exclusion because under these circumstances there would be no opportunity for international dialogue.

Last year, a head of state from the People`s Republic of China was invited to the alpine resort. With the backdrop of Brexit, an incoming protectionist US administration and significant pressure on free trade zones and trade agreements, President Xi Jinping defended the global economic scheme, and portrayed China as a responsible nation and a leader for environmental causes.

President Xi Jinping rebuked the current populist movements that would introduce tariffs and hinder global commerce, warning that such protectionism could foster isolation and reduced economic opportunity. This is still a hot potato.

Two year ago, the forum announced the opening of its new Center for the Fourth Industrial Revolution in San Francisco. They said the center will “serve as a platform for interaction, insight and impact on the scientific and technological changes that are changing the way we live, work and relate to one another.” Great news at that time.

What about the crypto currency revolution? The cryptobank boom? All this decentralized coins and banking industry with tokens and their «smart contracts» that is flooding the market. Will the world leaders talk about it, and will the central banks answer with a centralized version in the future?

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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