Prime Minister Theresa May have spent over two and a half-year to negotiate with EU to leave the European Union. Later on today, the Parliament will vote on the deal and the question is not whether Mrs May loses but how badly it will be.
The opposition party will vote against her deal on Tuesday, and a defeat by more than 100 will be the worst since 1924. In other words; the Brexit deal is set to be rejected in the biggest Parliament defeat for a British government in 95 years, according to Bloomberg. 10% of the business is with the EU and 90% is outside of the EU.
More than 30 million people voted on the EU referendum in the U.K. Leave won by 51,9% to 48,1%, and the referendum turnout was 71,8%. The referendum was held on Thursday 23 June 2016. Since then, Theresa May have made a deal with the European Union.
England voted for Brexit by 53,4% to 46,6%, and Wales voted for Brexit with leave getting 52,5% vs Remain 47,5%. Scotland and Northland Ireland both wanted to stay in the EU. Scotland voted to Remain by 62% vs 38%, while Northern Ireland voted for a Brexit at 44,2%.
The idea to the European Union started right after World War II, and the idea is to avoid a war with each other by having European countries to trade together.
There are 28 countries in the EuroZone and that is not the same as the European Union which is «only» 19 countries with its own parliament, sets of rules and the same currency; the Euro.
The EU is an economic and political partnership and the idea is that countries which trade together were more likely to avoid to go to war with each other. People from the member states can move over the borders without any questions and so can goods and money.
Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty gave PM Theresa May and the EU two years to come to an agreement. Both parties scheduled to leave the EU at 11pm UK time on Friday, 29 March 2019, but a European court has ruled that the UK can decide to stop the process. It can also be extended if all the 28 EU members agree.
Communist Jeremy Corbyn wants to try to force a general election if there is no deal later today, and if the UK`s main opposition party Labour succeeds, they wants to go back to Brussels and negotiate a new version of Brexit.
PM Theresa May has warned Conservative Mps thinking of voting against the deal she has reached with the EU that they risk «no Brexit at all». That happened in another referendum which was backed by the SNP, the Green Party, Plaid Cymru, Lib Dems, some Conservatives and a large group of Labour Mps. They want the public to be given the final say, with the option to remain in the EU.
There is a 585-page withdrawal agreement. It covers the cost for the UK to leave the EU and that is an estimated £39 billion. It also proposes a method of avoiding the return of a physical Northern Ireland border.
The Northern Ireland Democratic Unionist Party will vote against the deal. They have a 310 mile land border with the EU and this is a point that dominated the Brexit talk. Nobody wants surveillance cameras at the border because the question is free cross-border flow of trade and people.
So, is it gonna be a hard border, soft border or no border at all? Both, the UK and EU agreed to put in place a «backstop» to ensure there is no hard border whatever the outcome of the trade talk between them. This is a safety net wich is good for both parties.
All the opposition parties in the House of Commons and the Labour party have said they will vote against the deal. In addition; some reports say as many as 100 are also opposed to it. The Northern Ireland Democratic Unionist Party, who PM Theresa May relies on to keep her in power, have also said they will vote against it.
PM Theresa May argues that if her deal is voted down, Britain risks leaving without a deal, and some think it will cause chaos at the ports and damage industry. Alternatively, she says, there will be «no Brexit at all».
Mrs May need at least 320 votes to pass and so far it seems to be difficult. Some say that the deal they have today is not what they voted for. Others say it is even worse than staying in the EU.
Nobody know for sure whats gonna happen if the Parliament rejects the Brexit plan, but there are a few scenarios; they can leave the EU without a deal or they can have another vote in Parliament. They can also go for another EU referendum or a general election, or Mps can remove Theresa May and start to renegotiate a deal with the EU.
If some of this happens, the Brexit date of 29 March will therefore be delayed by a few months and that should be enough to renegotiate a deal if EU agree.
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