Tag Archives: Amazon

Ambarella`s new business opportunity

I have been watching Ambarella for a while and the stock has gone straight up, but that`s until now. So far, 2015 has been a bad year for Ambarella, but despite the huge drop, the stock is still up for the year and even better than S&P 500.

The stock is down over 50% in a few months and the stock has so far been very speculative. The company has profited from GoPro`s success, but as you may know, GoPro has been losing market shares with weaker earnings and guidance for the future.

 

amba

(Click the image to enlarge)

 

When GoPro missed its guidance for Q3 and told investors a forth-quarter to decline nearly 20% YoY, Ambarella’s shares was also declining. Investors are linking those two companies but that can be a mistake.

But GoPro is not the only customer in the market. The chipmaker has another big opportunity, which can be bigger than GoPro. The new big market is the drone industry, and if you saw my article about Amazon`s new drones, you know that this can be big business.

A green signal from the Federal Aviation Administration will open up a huge market for drones, and Ambarella’s high-end camera chips. The demand for drones with camera will not only increase in the defence industry (U.S Department of Defence) but also by ordinary consumers at Wal-Mart Stores and Amazon to name a few.

Amarella is well diversified and the drone industry is not the biggest income source for the company. Only 10% of their revenue comes from the drone industry, but that can change rapidly in the future.

In addition to their wearable-cameras space, Ambarella’s revenue comes from IP Security and automotive, but that can change in the future. Their biggest competitor in the drone market is probably Aero Vironment, but they are not diversified like Ambarella, while they are focusing just on one segment which is drones.

Market Cap is 1,92B and P/E 25,73 with earning per share; 2,34. Check out the new report on Thursday.

The stock is trading at $60 on Wednesday, which is down from record high of $129,19 in July. GoPros demand for drones in not what investors expected and many are bearish at the moment. The drone market hasnt started yet and Ambarella can be a good investment for long-term investors.

 

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication. UA-63539824-1.

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Groupon is laying off 1,100

I have never been a fan of Groupon, and when I say that it is not as a customer. Groupon has a business model that really makes the customers big winners in this game. Nothing wrong with that, but it is the businesses that is paying for the show, and they don`t want to lose.

The stock has been hammered. Take a look at the chart below.

GRPN

Groupon Inc operates online commerce marketplaces worldwide that connects merchants to consumers by offering goods and services at a discount. Groupon offers deals on goods and services in three categories: Local deals (Local), Groupon Goods (Goods) and Groupon Getaways (Travel).

Its deals are accessed directly through its Websites, mobile applications and search engines. It`s impressive to see that Groupon grew from $312 million to $3,19 billion from 2010 to 2014. But now, it seems like the glory days are over.

What have happened?

First of all; in my opinion, the biggest winner in this game is the customer. Who are saying no to a great deal? No one. The customers are not paying to Groupon. They are paying to Groupon`s customer, which is the most important thing for Groupon. No customers – no income.

Groupon`s customers need to cut the bill in half. Voila! Groupon`s customer have already lost 50% of the original price. The end customer is satisfied of course, because who say no to 50% discount? The end customer pay to Groupon`s customer, but out of that, another 50% must go to Groupon, which means there is only 25% left to the supplier.

It could have been a good way to promote the business, but it seems like the end customer is the big winner. It depends on what business it is but customers who are paying for the products are not loyal. They will hunt for other discounts other places.

Not only that. Groupon has got a lot of competition from other companies. They are attacked from all sides. They have competition from e-commerce platforms like Amazon, Alibaba and eBay to name a few.

Not only e-commerce platforms are doing the same. Social platforms like Twitter and Facebook have both launched their own «Buy now» buttons. Again; customer are the big winners. Discount here and discount there. Discount everywhere.

Let`s say you sell product A for $1000. If you have your own customer base on Facebook, you can start a 50% discount campaign and still have 50% left without giving half of that to Groupon. It doesn`t matter for your customers, because they have 50% anyway, but it matters to you.

The management need to do something very fast.

Groupon announced it would cut 10 percent of its workforce and cease operations in some areas overseas. The company still have a lot of cash, and in a filing with the SEC, they says the restructuring will require a one-time charge of up to $35 million.

What they need to do is start focusing on their customers. Not their customers customers.

 

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication. UA-63539824-1.

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Yelp revenue up +62%

Yelp are reporting earnings later today, and this one will be interesting to watch. The competition in the ad business is stiff as local ad segments has become more attractive to competitors like Google, TripAdviser and Facebook to name a few.

Yelp logo

They have all increased their focus on local advertising in recent years, but despite that, Yelp reported positive EPS for the first time since its IPO. It`s estimated to see EPS to come in at $0,05 vs Wall Street`s $0,03.

That`s much better than last year, which was lower at -$0,04. Revenue is estimated to be $99,4M vs Wall Street`s slighly lower estimate of $98,9M, and that would be a whopping 62% increase YoY. Not bad for a 5B market cap company.

Yelp had about 68 million mobile unique visitors in the second quarter, and that`s up 51%. The growth factor is in their expansion in Japan, Mexico, Hong Kong, Portugal, Argentina and Chile, which will boost their ad revenue. 40% of all new reviews and more than 50% of Yelp`s total ad impression came from mobile devices. It`s expected to see the trend to continue.

Yelp is challenged by Google`s algorithmic change this summer, but despite that, Yelp`s traffic increased. The international traffic grew 80% YoY last quarter to 31 million unique monthly visitors. Another challenge is Angie`s list. Google is likely to offer them a buyout offer, but Amazon or Home depot is also on the retailers list for a possible acquisition in the future.

Angie`s list`s shares plunged today, reported a bigger than expected quarterly loss and they reported a fewer paid members. They lose market share and subscribers because they charges their customers fees to access reviews and ratings, which is free on Yelp. They have had to slash membership fees over the past few years, and has failed to turn into profit since their IPO in 2011. Angie`s list in founded in 1996, which is one of the tech companies that survived the dot-com bubble in 2000.

Yelp is scheduled to release its earnings results after the bell today.

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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What is a stock split?

 

You probably know that Google had a stock split a while ago, and now, Apple is headed for the same on June 9. But what is a stock split and is it good or bad for the stockholders? Let`s take a closer look at a stock split and what it is.

 

A stock split is a corporate action in which a company divides its existing shares into multiple shares. The number of shares outstanding increases by a specific multiple, the total dollar value of the shares remains the same compared to pre-split amounts, because the split did not add any real value.

Apple

The most common split ratio is 2-for-1. This is called «forward stock split», which means that the stockholder will have two shares for every share held earlier. Apple have a 7-for-1 split, but there are number of «groups» impacted by the split.

 

Let`s take an example: Company A has 10 million shares outstanding and the stock price is $100. The Company A`s market cap is $1 billion. But the board of directors want to split the stock 2-for-1. The new number of stocks will double to 20 million, but the market cap is still $1 billion, as the stock price drops down to $50. Market cap is unchanged.

 

So, what is the point of doing that? They might have other things to do. Well, first of all, a split is usually undertaken when the stock price is quite high, making it pricey for investors to acquire a standard board lot of 100 shares.

 

If Company A`s price per share was $100 each, you would need to pay $10,000 to own 100 shares. If the share price was only half of that ($50), then you need to pay $5,000 for 100 shares. Second, the more shares a company have, the greater the liquidity for the stock, which facilitates trading and may narrow the bid-ask spread.

 

As you can see, the market cap is unchanged, but a split can often results in renewed investor interest, and that can have a positive impact on the stock price. Stock splits in blue chips companies like for example Apple and Google are a great way for the average investor to accumulate an increasing number of shares.

 

Many of the best companies routinely exceed the price level at which they had previously split their stock, causing them to undergo a stock split yet again. I have been following Amazon.com since its start in late 90`s.

 

I see three splits in the Amazon.com stock split history database. The first split for Amazon took place on June 02, 1998. This was a classical 2-for-1 split. It means for each share of Amazon owned presplit, you now owned 2 shares. For example; a 1000 share position pre-split, became a 2000 position following the split.

 

The second Amazon split took place on January 05, 1999. This was a 3-for-1 split. For each share of Amazon owned pre-split, you now owned 3 shares. For example; a 2000 share position pre-split, became a 6000 position following the split.

 

The third split took place on September 02, 1999. This was a classical 2-for-1 split, meaning for each share of Amazon owned pre-split, you now owned 2 shares. For example; a 6000 share position pre-split, became a 12000 position following the split. I remember all the splits very good.

 

It was exiting and it was in the beginning of a new era in the tech stock history. Keep in mind that when they split the stocks, the market cap is the same, but the number of stocks is changed, which means you own more shares, but the shares are valued at a lower price per share. Very often, we that a lower price for a stock can attract a wider range of buyers. And here is the interesting thing; when the stock price goes down, the demand for the stock is increasing. This means of course that the market cap will rise which is good for the company.

 

As always in the stock market; you can`t only look at only one metrics. You have to look at the underlying fundamentals of the business. Looking at the history of Amazon, an original position size of 1000 shares would have turned into 12000 shares today.

 

Google made its split because they want more control over the company and shares. You have different share classes in Google, and all of them have different prices. You can see Google, Google A and Google C when you search for the stock.

 

Many investors are wondering if Apple`s split will mark a peak in its shares as both Google and MasterCard declined after its two share classes split. You can`t compare Apple`s split to Google`s split, because of its different share classes, as one of which had no voting rights, so each class really became its own separate trading vehicle.

 

Right after the split in Google, the shares declined, but that was because of a poor earnings report and not because of the A class shares in Google. I just wonder if Apple will move into the Dow after this split?

 

Apple has three splits in the Apple stock split history. The first one took place on June 16, 1987. This was a 2-for-1 split. The second split took place on June 21, 2000. Also a 2-for-1 split, and the second split took place in February 28, 2005, with a 2-for-1 split. Apple`s 7-for-1 split is approaching and will take place on June 9, 2014.

 

Other key dates:

 

The record date: June 2, 2014 – determines which shareholders are entitled to receive additional shares due to the split.

 

The split date: June 6, 2014 – shareholders are due split shares after the close of business on this date.

 

The Ex date: June 9, 2014 – the date determined by Nasdaq when Apple common shares will trade at the new split-adjusted price.

 

This split means that six additional shares of stock are issued for each share in existence on the Record date, June 2, 2014. The number of shares outstanding will be multiplied by seven and earnings per share will be divided by seven.

 

Reports today:

 

08:30 a.m EST Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

08:30 a.m EST Durable Goods Orders m/m

09:00 a.m EST S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y

09:00 a.m EST HPI m/m

09:30 a.m EST ECB President Draghi Speaks

10:00 a.m EST CB Consumer Confidence

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

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Alibaba IPO

 

I wrote about the company last year and now it is time to do it again. Alibaba Group Holding Ltd is a big fish which is preparing to launch perhaps the largest U.S stock listing ever of a Chinese company.

alibaba logo

Personally, I have been dealing with Alibaba for many years now, but most of the people don`t have a clue of what it is. Alibaba is a mix of Amazon, Ebay, Paypal and Google. The difference between Amazon and Alibaba is that Alibaba is connecting buyers and sellers, while Amazon buy from suppliers and sell the products to the customers.

Alibaba is more like Ebay Inc. Their role is more like a middleman role and does not operate like an auction. Taobao is Alibaba`s biggest website. It is a gigantic Chinese bazar with about 760 million product listings from 7 million sellers.

Merchants pay Alibaba for advertising and other services from Alibaba. They do not pay them to sell their own products. The no-fee model is part of Taobao`s appeal in China. Just like Google, the ads from merchants appear with Taobao`s product-search results.

Taobao is designed for small businesses, but Alibaba`s Tmall is another shopping site that is designed for bigger brands like Nike and Apple. Tmall has about 70.000 merchants. They charges each seller a deposit and an annual fee, as well as a commission on each transaction.

Taobao and Tmall accounts for more than half of all parcel deliveries in China. In 2012, the combined transaction volume of Taobao and Tmall topped $163 billion. That is more than Amazon and eBay combined!

Alibaba`s revenue is 1/10 of Amazon`s. The Chinese company doesn`t sell products like Amazon on its site. Alibaba`s revenue rose 51% (third quarter) to $1,78 billion, while Amazon posted revenue of $17,09 billion and a loss of $41 million in the same quarter.

Alibaba`s profit margin is 44,6% and net profit was $792 million. They could raise about $15 billion from their U.S IPO. This can move another stock; Yahoo, which own a stake of 24% in Alibaba.

It can move Yahoo before and after the IPO. Like the Facebook IPO, they may «suck the air» of the markets. Yahoo has a market cap of $36 billion. It`s early in the process, but it is estimated that the IPO range is about $160 billion.

Alibaba remains by far the biggest player in China`s fast growing e-commerce market. Their biggest competitor Tenchent Holdings Ltd is a powerful competitor because of their popular WeChat mobile-messaging application.

Going public will keep Alibaba in the race in the global market. Yahoo is down -2,0% today and -11,2% YTD. This can change because Yahoo is a takeover candidate. This is one of the pioneers of the web.

Yahoo is a great success story of the Net. The stock has returned 21% annually since early trading in 1996. The company have survived two bear markets to date, and was one of the tech companies in the tech bubble in the late 1990`s.

Report today:

08:30 AM ET Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
08:30 AM ET Durable Goods Orders m/m
09:45 AM ET Flash Services PMI
10:30 AM ET Crude Oil Inventories

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

 

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