Category Archives: Stock market

by | October 16, 2013 · 1:18 pm

Capitol Hill Thriller

Very often I start the day by looking at the exchanges in Asia. It gives me a picture of what mood people are in at the moment. October 17 is tomorrow and the congress do still not have an agreement about the debt limit and Obamacare. People wait and see what`s happening.

The stockexchange in Asia is mixed today. MSCI Asia Pacific didn`t move today. Nikkei 225 is up 0,1%, Topix is falling 0,08%, CSI in China is down 1,42% and Shanghai Composites are falling 1,35%.

Hang Seng are falling 0,4%, Kospi are down 0,03%, Straits Times are up 0,39%, Taiex falls 0,2% and S&P/ASX200 is up 0,14%. As you can see, there is not any big moves in Asia. What moves the markets right now is the White house and Capitol hill.

A default means higher borrowing costs for the U.S and that means a slowdown of the global economy. It`s very difficult to understand why the U.S want more expensive money? A default would be a disastrous.

People at the World Bank and I.M.F said they belived the impasse would be resolved before october 17. If so they have to hurry up. The risk is that the government do not have enough money to pay its bills, and that`s for the first time in history. They are playing a game in Capitol Hill, and for all I know, they will probably come to an agreement in the last hour. It`s a political problem.

Is this the reason that is going to break the bullish trend? If not, we have to look for the unexpected. As long as we have this financial system, there must always builds up an bubble. So, what is the next bubble?

44% of the stocks on S&P 500 are high divident yield stocks. It`s the highest since 1970, and a little bit above it`s 35% average. This is crazy. And this is so called «safe stocks»? We are at the all time high, so it`s time to be careful.

News to look at today: Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30am, Beige Book at 2:00pm.

Capitol hill

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | October 11, 2013 · 2:27 pm

Bullish move

S&P 500 and the Dow was up 2,18% yesterday. Nasdaq was up 2,26%. What a bullish move! The biggest move since the beginning of this year. The biggest move comes from the Russel 2000, which is up 2,50%. VIX dropped down -15,92%, and ended up to open at 16,48.

All this because of the positive news we talked about yesterday. Obama have invited the republicans and the democrats to discuss the debt limit and both parts seems to be positive about a short term solution.

When we see a bullish move like that, we often see gold goes in the opposite direction. Gold broke its important $1300 level, and are now trading at $1283,7. It seems like the gold will continue it`s downtrend.

The gold prices are in trouble. It`s probably a gold price crices. We have had a downtrend for a while, and it seems to continue. The comming hyperinflation is imminent, and the FED`s balance sheet problems goes in the opposite direction of the goldprices. That is nasty for the precious metal.

At the same time we can see a rebound in the U.S dollar, and that is often a very bearish factor for the gold index. Jobless claims showed a rise in claims yesterday. The data was skewed because the reports did not include all 50 U.S states.

Micron Technology (MU) have been overbought since early september. What a bullish stock that is! Micron Technology Inc is one of the biggest and best providers of advanced semiconductor solutions. They manufactures and markets DRAM, NAND Flash and NOR-flash memory and other innovative memory technologies. Micron falls after Q4 earnings miss.

News for today: Preliminary UofM Consumer Sentiment at 9:55am.

Today I have added a chart with DJ, Nasdaq and S&P 500 compared with the gold bugs. This showes us that it has been a terrible year so far for the gold stocks. Gold traded at $1700 at the beginning of this year. Barrick gold Corp Inc traded at 47 in january and are now at 17,84. Wow!

HUI and index

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | October 9, 2013 · 11:41 am

Earning seasons

Earning seasons are upon us, and as you know; stock prices follow earnings. So, whats driving the markets is corporate profits, but that`s also the key to a dropdown. To make the S&P 500 go up 1 percent, you need to have a profit of $1 billion.

That is not what happend during the dot-com bubble. That`s why the markets plummeted. Now, it is a match of the index/stock prices and the profits (after tax). Normally, it goes up and down within a trendline. When we hit the roof, we will often see a correction. Looking at the correlation between the index and the profits right now, it isn`t something wrong with the bull market.

October means earnings begins to roll out and gives the traders a huge trading opportunities. Concur technologies Inc (CNQR) took the Wall Street by storm with the earnings and revenues last time. The volume skyrocket, and so did the stockprice.

We are at the all time high and it will be interesting to see the earnings comming in now. I think the picture will be mixed, but if the shutdown continue in the long run, it may affect the GDP and the earnings, which means you know how Q4 will be?

I often look at the commodity prices and I follow copper very closely. Copper are trading up and I often see the copper price together with the 10 day moving average. The price is on target of the 10 MA and tells me a lot about the demand for this commodity. The gold price is also on target for  the 10 MA.

News to have a look at today is Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30am, 10 Year Note Auction 1:01pm, FOMC Meeting Minutes at 2:00pm. I look forward to hear from the FOMC meeting. I have added two charts today. Copper and Gold compared to the 10 day MA.

Copper 10MA

Gold 10 MA

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | October 8, 2013 · 1:30 pm

Market update

Investors are not so patient, and Putin is not patient either. He told Obama to try to find a solution on the budget crises as soon as possible. Investors are tolking to Obama thru VIX. It`s going up as we now are in the second week with the shutdown. Gold is now at $1321, and it seems like investors are sitting on their hands now.

Russian President Putin warned Presiden Obama to solve the debt/budget crises as soon as possible. Many investors are now very nervous as we are in the second week with no solution on the budget crises.

The markets was up on friday, down again on monday. It goes a little bit up, and a little bit down. In sum, it goes sideways. So far. Investors are waiting for october 17. That date will be a date we will remember in the future I think.

December Comex gold was last up $13.80 at $1,323.80 an ounce. Spot gold was up $12.50 at $1324.25. A weak dollar were bullish for the gold yesterday as it rose up with good gains. As the markets go down, and the fear goes up, the safe-heaven precious metal goes up.

The world`s largest economy China will be back from it`s Golden Week holiday season, and that could increase the demand for the yellow metal. The holiday for India starts very soon, and that can affect the gold prices with the consumer spending in India.

We can`t get any U.S economic data because of the shutdown. The FOMC minutes will be launched on wednesday and other people from the Fed officials will be speaking later on this week. Investors will scrutinize every word they say and that will have a huge impact of the financial markets.

The U.S Treasury Department told the U.S government on thursday last week that default would damage the confidence to the U.S economy and in addition increase the government`s borrowing costs.

A default could allow rating agencies to downgrade the U.S debt, which in return can impact the Treasury market. It can affect the price of Treasury bonds and notes, and if they are used to hedge in commodity markets, then the investors need to pay more money. The American bonds are used as collateral by futures commission merchants. That`s why the commodity markets can be hit in a ripple effect.

Below you will see the new $100 bill. It`s the first redesign since 1996 with better security and harder to forge. Nice!

new100

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | October 7, 2013 · 1:40 pm

Green friday

It`s optimism in the stock market again. People belive the lawmakers will solve the dept-ceiling problems. China rebound and BDI is increasing. Everything looks great. That`s in the long term. Right now the futures is down about 1 percent.

What an end of the week. Everything was green. Dow Jones was up 0,51 percent, to 15,072,60. The S&P 500 climbed 0,71 percent to 1,690,50, and Nasdaq rose up 0,89 percent to 3,807,75. 5,2 billion shares canged hands on U.S excanges, and that is 9,6 percent below the three-month average.

People belive that the lawmakers will reach a deal to end the budget impasse. That`s why we see the excanges is green now. The investors are very optimistic, and 6,4 days is the average of the days the spend to solve the problems in capitol hill.

S&P 500 is up 19 percent so far this year and from it`s 2009 low, it is up amazingly 155 percent. VIX dropped 5,3 percent today and are now down to 16,74 percent. The equity volatility gauge has fallen 7,1 percent so far this year.

China is back too, and now it seems to be a good time to invest in South East Asia. The industrial profits rose 24,2 percent in August this year. In addition; I see Baltic Dry Index has broken it`s 200 day moving average. That is good news for the economy.

Gold is still a little bit above 1300, and gold have not reacted on the shutdown earlier since 1976. The duration shutdwon has varied from one to twentyone days. Two years ago during the dept- ceiling, the gold rose from $1500 in july to $1800 in august 2011. A nice safe-heaven rally.

There`s no news to watch out for today or tomorrow. What I am looking for this week is what`s happening in capitol hill. It`s up to the republicans. People expect to see a solution and that`s why they are so optimistic. This will be an exciting week.

Markets up

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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