Tag Archives: Retailer

The U.S Black Friday is on track for “blowout” but the Retailer ETF is declining

The biggest shopping day of the year has been the black friday, but that belong to the past. This has changed in the past few years and its a reason for that. Its no longer a black friday single day, but a week-long affair.

Retailers start their Black Friday Sales as early as Thanksgiving Day, Wednesday, and as early as Monday. This is why it is difficult to measure the sale related to only one day; Black Friday. So, if you look at it this way, the combined sales of Thanksgiving Eve, Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday should be included in Black Friday numbers because they are related to each other.

Amazon is still on top of the most popular stores for Black Friday. While Amazon continue to rule the online world, WalMart remains undisputed king of the Black Friday. Next on the list is Target, BestBuy, Macys and Kohls to name a few.

What people are looking for is Apples iPhones, Macs, iPads and other devices, but Apple is not expected to give away any great deals. Gift cards up to $300 will therefore be given by AT&T, T-Mobile, Verizon and Sprint.

Its also expected to see WalMart, BestBuy, Target and Amazon to offer the cheapest TVs, Laptops and Video Games. Google is expected to respond with deals on Nest, Nest Camera, Nest Doorbell and Google assistant.

The National Retail Federation predicts 164 million consumers will shop Thanksgiving weekend, and while 21% will shop Thanksgiving Day, fully 71% will shop Black Friday itself. Analysts are now looking at the five-day period from Thanksgiving Day to Cyber Monday to get a sense of holiday spending, which is now being called «Thanksgiving Weekend.»

The number of people going to the stores Thanksgiving Day has declined since its peak in 2014. The sales are moving online and Thanksgiving Day last year jumped 18,3 percent YoY in online sales. Online shopping on Black Friday last year jumped 16,9 percent YoY.

A quick look at XRT Retail ETF tells us a strange story which is the opposite of last year. The value is declining and it seems to have peaked in October this year. I will continue to follow the retailers and their business.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

Advertisements

Leave a comment

Filed under Stocks

Kohl`s is doing it much better than most of its competitors and the stock is up around 100% YoY

I wrote about J C Penny last week. A stock that is continuing to decline on Monday. Many retailers are struggling, but not all. Kohls is a much different story. Kohls is doing it much better than most of its competitors.

The stock is doubled from $35 in May last year to $78 on Monday. Up 3,15 percent before their earning report on Tuesday. They simply beat their competitors on e-commerce, store productivity, ROIC and revenue which is pretty impressive.

Many of Kohls competitors are closing down stores, but Kohls are going in the opposite direction by opening up stores. Sales revenue increased over 6 percent in their fourth-quarter report. Diluted earnings per share came in at $5,12 in the same period.

ROIC is between 10 – 20 percent for a healthy store, while Kohls is near 10 percent, and they are keeping up their momentum. Both, J C Penny and Macys reported bad reports last week, but also here, Kohl`s are reporting positive revenue growth.

Kohls opened up its fifth e-commerce fulfillment center last year, and they have an estimated 37 million views a month to their websites. The company is also collaborating with Amazon were people can return products to Kohls.

Kohls private brands, which include Sonoma, Croft & Barrow, and Apt 9 generate nearly half of the firms $19 billion in annual sales. They also has plans to re-launch and reimagine the billion-dollar Sonoma brand for apparel and home goods.

Other brands are Jennifer Lopez and Marc Anthony. Two artist with great success on the stage.

Kohl`s uses a «racetrack» aisle that circles the entire store, a technique borrowed from discount stores. In 2011, they announced plans to remodel 100 of its 1,100 locations. Changes included redone store sections, fitting room, and newer merchandise displays.

In 2015, Kohls opened a test store built around selling only returned, yet as new clothing, home goods, jewelry, and accessories. The store, called OFF/AISLE by Kohls, sells items at a marked down price. The stores have a restrictive return policy different from regular Kohl`s stores.

In early January 2017, Kohls shares fell 19 percent in value, in what Wall Street Journal said was "the stocks worst day on record.”

Kolhl`s Corporation is expected to report earnings on August 21, 2018 before market open. The report will be for the fiscal quarter ending in July 2018. Earnings in April was a 30 percent surprise with an EPS of 0,64. The consensus EPS for the quarter this time is $1,66.

The weekly chart is positive and positive news can push the stock to a new all-time high.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

Leave a comment

Filed under Stocks

Wal-Mart have huge challenges

Wal-Mart is an interesting case. While the stock market have plummeted, Wal-Mart have been strong so far in 2016. Up over 8%. Wal-Mart announces earnings on Thursday and what can we expect from a retailer with so many challenges in the market right now?

Estimize calls for EPS of $1,45, which is one penny lower than Wall Street. Revenue expectations of $130,513B are greater than the Street`s consensus of $130,461B. Revenue estimates have fallen by almost $1B in the last 3 months.

This quarter it is expected to post a 10% decline in EPS YoY, with revenue estimated to fall 1%. Declining expectations have to do with guidance Wal-Mart gave in October, lowering FY 2015 guidance and claiming YoY sales growth would be flat due to wage hikes and FX headwinds. WMT

Wal-Mart have 11,600 stores and know that the market have changed to a more difficult retail climate. Wal-Mart said in January that it will close 269 stores worldwide, but it also said that in the next year it plans to open about 140 new stores nationwide.

In the U.S, Wal-Mart will also shut down all 102 Wal-Mart Express locations, which is a pilot program that started five years ago. It will close 23 Neighborhood Market locations, 12 Wal-Mart supercenters, 7 stores in Puerto Rico, 6 discount centers and 4 Sam`s Clubs.

Many claims that Wal-Mart have strong competitions from Amazon, and Wal-Mart said it will focus more on e-commerce and expanding pick-up services for customers. The retailer will open 50-60 new Supercenters, 85-95 new Neighborhood Markets and 7 to 10 new Sam`s Clubs across the U.S in fiscal 2017.

The retailer was a leader in grocery sales from mid-1990s to 2000s. Grocery still makes up about 55% of its revenue.

Wal-Mart`s ”click and collect” concept, where customers can order online and then get their merchandise at the store, give the workers more fear that this could be the beginning of more cuts in the future.

A big surprise for many was Wal-Mart`s announcement to raise base wages for its U.S workers. Wal-Mart is a cost-conscious retailer and it raised hourly wages to a minimum of $9 last April, and is set to bump them up to $10 this February.

The federal government has not raised the minimum wage since 2009 when  it lifted it from $2,15 per hour to $7,25 per hour.  Some cities are planning to raise wages to $15 per hour.

Wal-Mart is not the only one to close its stores. Sears Holding Corp will close a number of Kmart stores, while Macy`s will close 40 and cut 4,800 jobs. E-commerce and an improved superstore experience are growth drivers for Wal-Mart, but wages can be a challenge in the future.

Amazon are more efficient and generate $650,000 in revenue per employee. To compare, Wal-Mart generate $220,000 and this is a disadvantage for Wal-Mart with 2,2 million employees vs Amazon`s 154,000.

The average employee at Costco makes $21 per hour, so Wal-Mart have a lot of challenges now.

cropped-sbwood.jpg

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

Leave a comment

Filed under Stocks