Tag Archives: Le Pen

Eurosceptic parties are expected to make a strong showing at the polls on the ninth parliamentary election since 1979

The next election to the European Parliament is expected to be held between 23 and 26 May 2019, and will be the ninth parliamentary election since the first direct elections in 1979. A total of 751 members of the European Parliament (MEP`s) currently represent more than 512 million people from 28 member states.

The polarization of the European Parliament after the 2019 election is growing. Centrist parties, including center-left, center-right and liberal parties, are struggling to maintain a majority (376) of seats.

The ninth parliamentary election will make a big change because new parties such as Confederation and Kukiz15 of Poland, Czech Pirate Party of Czech Republic, Alliance, Basta! And Liberal Initiative of Portugal, USR and PLUS of Romania, LMS of Slovenia, Human Shield, Most and Workers Front of Croatia, L`SNS and Sme Rodina of Slovakia will participate.

For the liberals, the biggest hope is that the new La Rèpublique En Marche! of French President Macron will choose to join ALDE after the elctions.

However, En marche is expected to be more likely to try to form a new parliamentary group of pro-European centrists who support Macron`s plans to reform the European institutions, thus drawing away members from ALDE, EPP and S&D.

Possible partners for such a project might include Spanish Ciudadanos, Progressive Slovakia and the Hungarian Momentum Movement. While it is likely that En Marche will put together the minimum of 25 MEPs needed to form a group, the requirement to include MEPs from at least seven member states would be more difficult.

The European Spring initiated from the Democracy in Europe Movement 2025 will run as a pan-European party alliance with one unified vision for Europe; the European Green New Deal.

The most prominent figure is the former Greek minister Yanis Varoufakis, who will run as candidate in the constituency of Germany.

Volt Europa, a pan-European progressive movement, will run in several countries under the same name in the attempt to form its own group.

The leader of the Italian Five Star Movement has expressed a desire to form an anti-establishment faction of their own within the EU.

Pablo Iglesias, Catarina Martins, Jean-Luc Mèlenchon and several others have formed an alliance in Maintenant le Peuple opposed to the PEL, but they are likely remain in GUE/NGL.

The Movement is an alliance of right-wing populist parties set up by Steve Bannon with the purpose of contesting the European elections. Participating parties include Lega Nord, People`s Party of Belgium and Brothers of Italy and possible French National Rally.

Originally envisioned as an attempt to unite the right-wing populist parties in Europe. The Movement has so far been snubbed by the Alternative for Germany, the Freedom Party of Austria and the UK Independence Party.

The biggest party is the European Peoples Party (EPP), followed by Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) + En Marche! Next can be Salvinis European Alliance of People and Nations (ex ENF).

EPP`s Incumbent Jean-Claude Juncker has stated he will not seek a second term as President. Two candidates sought the nomination of the EPP: Alexander Stubb, the Vice-President of the European Investment Bank, former prime minister, foreign minister and finance minister of Finland.

Manfred Weber, current group leader for the European People`s Party in the European Parliament and member of the Christian Social Union in Bavaria has been backed by Angela merkel as Spitzenkadidat for the party.

Oriol Junqueras, a Catalan historian, academic and former Vice President of Catalonia who is currently imprisoned because of his involvement in the 2017 Catalan independence referendum, is the Spitzenkadidat of the European Free Alliance.

Eurosceptic parties are expected to make a strong showing at the polls and all the Brexit-mess have made Eurosceptics more silent. So, instead of leaving the EU, Europes right-wing nationalists like Marine Le Pen of France, Italys Matteo Salvini, and the AfD will stay and rather try to «change the EU from the inside».

European economics commissioner Pierre Moscovici has warned of the dangers of a populist «breakthrough» for the EU`s future. He describes these elections as the «most delicate and most dangerous ever».

The nationalist Eurosceptics threatened to «destroy the EU as we know it», Pierre said. Choose your future.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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At the head of a youthful movement, En Marche!, Macron wants to “re-forge France`s politics, culture, and ideology”

People in France voted on Sunday and Macron is the winner with Le Pen as a strong nr 2. Both are the winners in the first round of the election, and the winner in the second round will be the next President of France.

How in the world is it possible that two outsiders are the biggest winners? Macron is only 39 years old and no longer a member of a political party. Wow. He was unknown barely two years ago. Never elected and he defines himself as neither left or right. And he can be the next President of France?

 

 

There is no doubt. People have spoken very clearly. The want a change. Something different. Something new, and that`s exactly what Macron is. Not something from the same old stuff. He is something new. Not ordinary politicians.

Former President Barack Obama`s slogan was back then «Yes we can», «Change versus more of the same», Vote for change, Change we can believe in, Stand for change, and the list goes on. People voted for Obama because people wanted change. Not only that; he was the first black President.

The same can be said about President Donald Trump. People voted for a human being. Not a politician. It seems like people don`t trust them anymore. They wanted something new in the U.S. So is it in France at the moment.

Macron like to present himself as the energetic outsider. So is it with Donald Trump. He often talks about energy. Macron also determined to break what he calls the «complacency and vacuity» of the French political system.

At the head of a youthful movement, En Marche!, Macron wants to “re-forge France`s politics, culture, and ideology”.

Economically, Macron is liberal and pro-business, and he says he is «of the left», but keen to unite people from across the spectrum, including the right. In the hands of a political establishment interested only in self-preservation, he has said, the system «has ceased to protect those it should protect».

Macron studied philosophy, is the son of a doctor and a neurology professor. He bought himself out of his government contract and joined Rothschild & Co, reportedly making around €2m as a thrusting young investment banker, before being appointed a senior adviser by President Francois Hollande in 2012 and two years later economic minister.

Macron resigned in summertime 2016 and launched his campaign in November. Only six months later, he is on the way to Elysèe Palace.

France has been struggling for a long time now with a high degree of inequalities, unemployment, and ongoing terror threat. What is all this compared to the French Revolution I wrote about one year ago? Macron and Le Pen are not left or right candidates and the established parties of left and right are out of the game.

The established parties are humiliated for modern French party politics of left and right.

People need to vote again in two weeks time, and Macron or Le Pen will be the next President of France. It`s up to the people in France on 7 May.

France is a beautiful country, but have a lot of trouble like inequality, unemployment, social divisions, and terrorism.

They also have a ruling elite with a strong sense of entitlement. Le Pen wants to get out of the European Union, so Macron is the only way to open up to the change of progressive, liberal and pro-European reform in France. So, this is not only about France, but also about Europe and the European Union.

People in France still have a job to do and they must finish the revolution that has been going on for a while now.

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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The FED`s “Adverse Scenario” and the major shift in the economy

The stock market has been in a euphoric rally since Donald Trump won the election in November last year. This is something that Janet Yellen and the FED has monitored. Not only that. They also monitored strong economic data which have strengthened the case for a rate hike.

As you may know, the FED raised the rates a few days ago, and normally after a rate hike, the stock market drops. Thats the case right now, but the market didnt fall much. Janet Yellen said the FED will continue to raise the rates. What will happen then?

The FED came out with Scenarios for annual stress test required under the Dodd-Frank Act Stress Testing Rules and the Capital Plan Rule on February 10, 2017. It is just a forecast; an Armageddon forecast, which is called «Adverse Scenario» Report, and the scenarios are not forecasts of the FED.

The adverse and severely adverse scenarios describe hypothetical sets of conditions designed to assess the strength of banking organizations and their resilience to adverse economic environments. The baseline scenario follows a profile similar to the average projections from a survey of economic forecasters.

We must be prepared for higher long-term interest rates. What is that suppose to mean? First of all; that is good for banks with retail customers, simply because retail customers usually have checking accounts with zero interest on them.

So, if the rates rise, the spread in the banks rise simply because the banks will make more on their lending. About 2,000 banks has disappeared the last seven years, which means the competition among the rest is not that big anymore.

We can also see a steeper yield curve and regionally concentrated episodes of deflation. More pronounced in Japan, but less severe in the Euro zone and Asia and absent in the UK and US.

This is the major shifts we will see in the FED`s «Adverse Scenario» for 2017, and U.S banks will be stress-tested again. The apocalyptic scenario means that the level of U.S real GDP will decline in the first quarter of this year.

The US economy advanced an annualized 1,9 percent on quarter in the three months of 2016, slowing from a 3,5 percent growth in the previous period and matching earlier estimates. Consumer spending rose faster than anticipated while business investment was revised lower. Last year, the GDP expanded 1,6 percent, which is the lowest since 2011.

Check out next GDP number at 2017-03-30 at 12:30 PM.

In the scenario, the unemployment rate increases to 10 percent, by the third quarter of 2018, and short-term treasury rates fall and remain near zero. House prices will also decline by about 25 – 35 percent, through the first quarter of 2019, and so will equity prices.

In the same scenario, we will se a slowdown in Asia, severe recessions and the dollar will appreciate against euro, the pound sterling and the currencies of developing Asia.

I think the next big think to look at now is the election in France. If Le Pen and the populist wins, it can turn things upside down, and start a new international crisis. Until then, trade in small caps are profitable when rates rise, and higher rates doesn`t stop tech stocks like Alphabet, Apple and Amazon from surging. This is the bull market that everyone hates.

 

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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