Tag Archives: BRICS

India`s Prime Minister Narendra Modi is doing something right and they can surpass China very soon

Theresa May is negotiating with the European Union and investors are concerned about a hard landing on these Brexit deals. It`s difficult to know exactly the outcome of the Brexit deal but what we do know is that the British economy grew 1,7% YoY in the second quarter of 2017.

Not so much compared to Chinas 6,9% growth, which is the best G20 country followed by India at 5,7%. Britains economy fell from 2,0% to 1,7% and that is the opposite direction of India`s growth. Can India grow by a greater margin than China this year?

 

 

According to IMF, Indias economy will grow by a greater margin than China in 2017. Not only that. Indias innovation growth rate is expected to rise significantly over the next 15 years, placing it ahead of Russia and close to surpassing China, according to a new report.

China is the leading nation in terms of innovation among BRICS countries, but India`s Prime Minister Narendra Modi must be doing something right. India is set to see a surge in innovation and could surpass China by the end of the next decade.

According to Chinas Science Technology Exchange Center, Indias innovation growth rate is expected to rise significantly over the next 15 years, placing it ahead of Russia.

India`s economy is expected to grow by 7,2% in 2017, according to IMF. A new study highlights the growth that can be expected in intellectual advances, such as science and technology, which are often perceived as indicators of future growth.

It`s BRICS Innovation Competitiveness Report 2017 predicted that the innovation competitiveness of India would see a significant rise with its growth rate probably surpassing China between 2025 – 2030.

What is India`s Prime Minister Narendra Modi actually doing right? He has been taking notable steps forward in innovation, supported by a reform agenda.

Government schemes such as Digital India, which expands the countrys online infrastructure, and StartUp India, which promotes financial backing for entrepreneurs, have been unveiled to boost the countrys innovation and technology sectors.

India`s growing information technology and scientific expertise have also helped turn it into an increasingly dominant outsourcing hub.

So far, China is still the leader in terms of innovation competitiveness among BRICS nations, followed by Russia, South Africa, Brazil and India.

Europe is struggling to follow. Ireland is the best country with its 6,10% growth, followed by Romania with 5,9% growth and Estonia with 5,7% growth YoY.

At the bottom in Europe we find Norway with only 0,20% growth, Macedonia by its 0% and at the very bottom Liechtenstein with negative -1,9% growth.

Monaco, Liechtenstein and Luxemburg are the richest countries in the world measured by GDP per capita.

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Olympic Games starts in Brazil while the GDP is declining

The Olympic Games starts today and will last until 21 August 2016, and the host is Rio de Janeiro. A beautiful place on earth, but if you ask some people there, they have another view. They are against it.

Hundreds of demonstrators demonstrated earlier on Friday, and blocked roads in Copacabana. They protested against the government and the cost of hosting the event. Nothing has obviously changed since last time I wrote about Brazil during the World Cup in 2014.

 

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People were angry at that time and so is it now. They feel angry because they belive the Brazilian government should spend money on other things than World Cup and now Olympic Games. Brazil still have serious problems with crime.

Brazil still has above-average levels of violent crime and particularly high levels of gun violence and homicide. WHO estimated the number of 32 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, which is one of the highest rates of international homicide of the world.

There are differences between the crime rates in the Brazilian states. While in Sao Paulo the homicide rate registered in 2013 was 10,8 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, in Alagoas it was 64,7 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants.

Brazil also has high level of incarceration and the third largest prison population in the world (behind only China and the United States), with an estimated total of approximately 700,000 prisoners around the country (June 2014), an increase of about 300% compared to the index registered in 1992.

Brazil is the largest country in both South America and Latin America. As the world`s fifth-largest country by both area and population, it is the largest country to have Portuguese.

Brazil was inhabited by numerous tribal nations prior to the landing on 1500 of explorer Pedro Alvares Cabral, who claimed the area for the Portuguese Empire. Brazil remained a Portuguese colony until 1808, when the capital of the empire was transferred from Lisbon to Rio de Janeiro.

In 1815, the colony was elevated to the rank of kingdom upon the formation of the United Kingdom of Portugal, Brazil and the Algarves. Independence was achieved in 1822 with the creation of the Empire of Brazil, a unitary state governed under a constitutional monarchy and a parliamentary system.

The ratification of the first constitution in 1824 led to the formation of a bicameral legislature, now called the National Congress. The country became a presidential republic in 1889 following a military coup dètat.

An authoritarian military junta came to power in 1964 and ruled until 1985, after which civilian governance resumed. Brazil`s current constitution, formulated in 1988, defines it as a democratic federal republic.

The federation is composed of the union of the Federal District, the 26 states, and the 5,570 municipalities.

(PPP) as of 2015. A member of the BRICS group, Brazil until 2010 had one of the world`s fastest growing economies, with its economic reforms giving the country new international recognition and influence.

Brazils national development bank plays an important role for the countrys economic growth.

The country has been the largest producer of coffee for the last 150 years.

 

 

 

GDP-Brazil

 

 

Now, things have turned upside down, and it has been a sharp and quick drop for the Brazilian economy and for Ms Dilma Rousseff. Brazil`s economic woes started in 2011, when China began to decelerate and Brazilian commodities began losing value.

Brazil`s GDP YoY is -5,40%, and their Interest rate is 14,25% with a jobless rate of 11,30%.

There is something strange here.

Argentina and Venezuela is not far away from Brazil, and if we scrutinize the numbers we can see that they have something in common. The Interest rate and Inflation rate is very high.

In Brazil, the Interest rate is 14,25%, but in Venezuela, the Interest rate is 21,36%. In Argentina; 30,25%. Not only that. Take a look at the Inflation rate; in Argentina it is 40,50%, but in Venezuela it is 180,90%. Can you belive that? The Inflation rate in Venezuela is 180,90%! Wow.

Its not so bad for the growth in Argentina, but Venezuela is in same boat as Brazil when it comes to growth. GDP in Brazil is -5,40% and in Venezuela it is -7,10%. Argentinas GDP YoY is 0,49%. Not much, but they`re on the right side.

By comparison; Chinas GDP is 6,70%, and Indias GDP is 7,90%.

It went wrong for both Brazil and Venezuela, but this can also happen in your country. Remember that.

 

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Other predictions for 2015

Spending a few minutes reading the headlines today can make you feel bad. It feels like the world is on fire. Ebola, ISIS, Ukraine and some extremely currency movements. In a world like that, the U.S is seen as a safe harbor and the greenbacks is the safest, most reliable currency on the planet right now.

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We witnessed a fantastic corporate earnings season, which was one of the best in the last decade. It is still a lot of work on jobs and housing, but the economy is well underway. How is it gonna be in the markets next year? No one knows, but there is a lot predictions out there. I will refer from two different investors today. One is positive and one is negative. Let`s take a look at the positive first;

No doubt, there is a market shift ahead, but it isn`t what you think it is. Based on different analysis, many indicators shows us that next year will be another fantastic year in the stock market. It will be another year to make money and the bull market will continue.

The bull market will not be what we have seen so far. It`s not gonna be another broad market rally like the rally we`ve seen the last few years. Stock picking will still be important, as there is a lot of stocks you should sell in 2015.

What you should buy is high-quality stocks with great fundamentals. You should buy one type of stocks next year.

Look at the truth about the economy. It took seven years to finally rebound from the Great Recession, and here are some key reasons why some investors expect the economy to keep charging ahead next year;

Fist of all; the oil shale revolution. According to the International Energy agency, the U.S will become the world`s leading oil producer next year. The energy boom will create jobs and lowering the gas and utility costs for consumers. That`s good news for the economy next year.

In addition; there will be low-interest rates. It may rise in the next 12 months, but the Fed will manage that rise slowly, which means it will remain ultra-low by historical standards, and that`s also good news for M&A activities, stock buybacks and cheap corporate borrowing that fuels stock prices, and business expansion.

Consumers are more positive to the economy and consumer confidence soared in October. Household net worth is back above 2007 levels, and consumer spending are rising at a moderate clip.

It looks safe in the U.S compared to the rest of the world. England`s housing market is collapsing. The Euro zone is on a brink to a deflationary disaster. Germany`s economy is deteriorating, and the growth has stalled in the once-hot BRICS. The U.S economy is surging. GDP was much stronger than expected 3,5% in Q3.

Chairwoman Janet Yellen has made it clear she intends to do whatever it takes to keep the economy and job growth strong. We survived the end of the Fed`s QE program and that was just one of the weapons in her arsenal.

The other one I talked about is negative. He expect the stock market to crash any time soon. It did in 1929, 1987, 2000 and 2008. The next crash will be next year he says. The bull market we have had over the past years is one of the longest, and most generous bull markets in history.

But, no bull markets lasts forever he says, and this one has about run its course. If you look at key long-term measures, U.S stocks are about 80% overvalued he says. There have been only five times when stocks have been more than 50% overvalued, and that is 1853, 1906, 1929, 1969 and 1999.

He said that each one of those years marked the peak of a massive, once-in-a-generation stock-market bubble. Only two of those bubbles were bigger than today`s, and that was in 1929 and 1999. This is the end of the line for this bull market he says.

You have to be sceptical about everything you read and it is very important to make up your own mind. I have heard about a 1929-stock-market-crash in ten years now. Many talked about a stock market crash all months this year. Same people talked about it in 2013 and 2012, but what we saw was a strong bull market.

But I can promise you one thing; one day they will have right!

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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