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Euro Area`s main import partners are the United Kingdom with 10% and China with 12% of total imports

A no-deal Brexit is not only bad for the United Kingdom but also for the Euro Area. They will both loose on it and that`s why a win-win should be a goal for them both. Populist-Italy is already into a recession, and other Euro Area-countries can follow.

Main imports in Euro Area are energy, manufactured goods and machinery. Main import partners are China with 12 percent of total imports and United Kingdom with 10 percent. Imports rose 1,9 percent in December 2018, while exports fell 2,5 percent in the same period.

According to Comtrade`s database, United Kingdom take most of their imports from Germany. 14 percent of their import comes from Germany and a no-deal Brexit means less German cars sold in the U.K. Total value of German imports came in at $89.23B in 2017.

9,5 percent of the import comes from China and 9,4 percent comes from the United States. Both of them outside of the Euro Area. The value of the import from China was 59,78B, and 59,75B from the U.S in 2017.

When it comes to export, the U.K`s biggest trading country is the United States which account for 14 percent. Second is Germany with 11 percent with France on third with 7,6 percent. Total value of exports to the U.S is $59,09B. Germany; $46,64B.

As you can see, the U.K are in balance with the U.S but when it comes to Germany they buy twice as much as the sell to the Germans. In other words they have a trade deficit with Germany. A no-deal Brexit can end up with less BMW and WV cars and more Tesla`s in the U.K.

German factories will lose money and market shares while other brands and countries will prosper. We will face a radical shift in the trade balance.

56 percent of the U.K exports goes to Europe while 40 percent goes to Asia and America. The economy is slowing down and the British economy grew by 0,2 percent on quarter in the three months to December last year. In comparison; the U.S economy advanced an annualized 3,4 percent.

The U.K trade deficit decreased to GBP 0,32 billion in December of 2018. Imports declined 1,6 percent to GBP 55,85 billion and exports fell at a slower 1 percent to GBP 52,62 billion. Balance of trade reached an all time low of -5749 GBP million in October of 2013.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

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Microsoft and Baidu plan to explore opportunities to deliver connected vehicle solutions

Microsoft is still among the biggest corporations, but far away so «hot» as the FANG stocks that everyone is talking about at the moment. With its market cap of $569,85 billion, Microsoft is still among the best and biggest companies.

Microsoft Corporations is expected to report earnings on Thursday after market close. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending June 2017. Earnings forecast for the quarter is $0,71 which is a bit more than last years earnings of $0,69 for the same quarter.

 

 

IBM is trying to give its cloud business a boost, but Microsoft`s open cloud format seems to be much better. A business that is giving Microsoft a huge upside. Azure and Xbox is two drivers for Microsoft at the moment, but there is more.

Who is talking about LinkedIn? Only a few. Reid Hoffman sold his «baby» to Bill Gates and Microsoft acquired the professional networking platform in an all-cash deal worth $26,2 billion in December last year.

Microsoft`s CEO Sataya Nadelia said at that time “The deal would bring together the worlds leading professional cloud with the worlds leading professional network.”

In addition; Microsoft wants to compete with Apple and Alphabet in delivering its self-driving car platform. They will collaborate with China`s search engine giant Baidu to use its Azure services for those self-driving cars.

Microsoft said in a press release on July 18, that Baidu and Microsoft plan to explore opportunities to deliver connected vehicle solutions and unique customer experiences that aim to digitally transform the autonomous driving industry.

Microsoft is focusing on cloud-connected car scenarios via its «Microsoft Connected Vehicle» strategy, and the company is aiming to get more vehicles to use their cloud services, like Office 365 and Azure, instead of using Microsoft itself inside cars via «Windows Automotive.»

Other Automotive brands are also interested in Microsoft`s cloud business. BMW and Volvo have both announced partnerships with Microsoft for its cloud-business car services.

Microsoft closed its previous trading session at $73,86 and is expected to report earnings on Thursday after market close.

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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EU passenger car registrations increased +11,2% which is an all-time high

EU is selling cars like never before. According to ACEA, EU passenger car registrations increased significantly, totaling 1,891,583 units, which is up +11,2 percent in March this year. This is an all-time high.

All the big five markets recorded very strong performances during the month, with Italy (+18,2%), Spain (+12,6%) and Germany (+11,4%) posting double-digit percentage gains, followed by the UK (+8,4%) and France (+7,0%).

 


This level of growth is mainly due to Easter falling in March last year and in April this year. The demand for passenger cars from January to March 2017 increased by 8,4 percent, totaling 4,141,269 units.

Italy (+11,9%), Spain (+7,9%), Germany (+6,7%), the United Kingdom (+6,2%) and France (+4,8%) all saw their markets grow during the first three months of the year, contributing to the overall upturn in the EU market.

The growth in car sales rose «only» 2,2 percent in February this year. The demand fell in several big markets and sales of volume brands Volkswagen and Peugeot slumped. Volkswagen AG, which is the biggest manufacturer, continued to lose market share, falling down to 10,4 percent.

Volkswagen new car sales fell 6,6 percent in February, and the sales of the larger Volkswagen group, which includes Audi, Porche, Skoda and SEAT, fell 1,1 percent.

The sports car brand Jaguar in the Jaguar Land Rover Group was again the fastest growing automaker in Europe. New Jaguar sales surged about 52 percent in February, which is much better than their competitors like BMW, Audi, Daimler AG`s Mercedes and Porsche.

 

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Many German car makers is stolen by the “master race”

What in the world is going on in the German car industry?

It`s not a secret any longer that the German car maker Volkswagen fudged with the numbers. Volkswagen had written their software to deliberately produce fake results and tried to fool the emissions-testing regulators.

What kind of strategy is that?

VW logo

I belive that they did it because they have strong competition from the new EV`s, but wouldn`t it be much cheaper to fix the problem instead of trying to fool the emissions-testing regulators by cheating about it?

Previous Volkswagen CEO Martin Winterkorn was «endlessly sorry that we have disappointed trust». It`s like a mirage built on trust. What is the relationship without trust? And how are Volkswagen gonna build the trust up again?

It`s no doubt; Volkswagen must spend a lot of years to come back and they will shrink from now on. A company that have seen massive growth since the World War II. Why did Volkswagen grow so fast after the World War II?

Many of the German car makers have been silent about one big thing that have been top-secret in about 70 years. I belive many have done something smart when they revealed the secrets and told the world before the world told them.

Many of the car brands is stolen!

Nazi

Four year ago, luxury car maker BMW admitted, after decades of silence, that they have used slave labours, taking over Jewish firms and they did business with the highest echelons of the Nazi party. BMW is not alone.

WirtschaftsWoche have made a list and it is shocking to see what the Nazis have done to make all this companies rich and famous. The Nazis not only took over Jewish firms, they also used the Jews in their factories for free.

Here is a list of slaves used by German firms:

1 IG Farben 83,000 slaves
2 BASF 80,000 slaves
3 ThyssenKrupp 75,000 slaves
4 BMW 50,000 slaves
5 Daimler (Mercedes) 40,000 slaves
6 Bosch 20,000 slaves
7 Audi 20,000 slaves
8 Volkswagen 12,000 slaves

Deutsche Bank did not use slaves, but became extremely wealthy during the World War II, because they sacked all Jewish directors and became rich by taking part in the «Aryanising» or taking over Jewish-owned businesses.

The most powerful banker Hermann Abs had prospered in the Third Reich. He joined the bank in 1937. He «Aryanised» Austrian and Czechoslovak banks that were owned by Jews, and the bank`s wealth quadrupled as the Nazi Empire expanded.

Siemens are still silent about their past. So are Adidas and C&A, but they are working on their own history about the past.

Fritz Sauckel was hanged for war crimes because he organized a program to bring over two million people to Germany from Poland, the Baltic states and Russia, to work for the new master race. Many of them went to companies like Volkswagen and BASF.

Romans and Greeks valued and revered their forced labourers while the Nazis treated them extremely bad. Volkswagen had what they called the «dying room» where female forced labourers who gave birth had to leave their newborns to die. They also had to drink water from toilets.

As you can see of the list above, non of the German car makers are at the top of the list. IG Farben is number one. They used 83,000 slaves in their factory inside Auschwitz. They prison labour to make their own gas called Zyklon B who killed most of the Jews in the Nazi gas chambers.

Owner of BMW, Gabriele Quandt said it was wrong for the family to ignore the dark chapter of its history. He decided to speak out after Bonn-based historian Joachim Scholtyseck revealed the secret about their grandfather Guenther Quandt and his brother Herbert who were responsible for many Nazi injustices.

bmw logo

They both acquired many Jewish-owned companies through the Nazis programme of «Aryanisation». Guenther got the title «Wehrwirtschaftsfuhrer» which means; leader of the armament economy.

Herbert Quandt was part of the system. Guenther became a Nazi Party member a month before Hitler came to the power in Germany. He used a network of party officials and Whrmacht officers to build up contracts for lucrative state contracts.

Guenther was divorced with Magda Behrend Rietschel in 1929. She killed her own six children and her self together with Joseph Goebbels in Hitler`s bunker in 1945. IG Farben which killed millions by their gas Zyclon B got away with mass murder. Only 12 of the 24 executives were found guilty. Why?

The bosses at I.G Farben financed Ludwig Erhard`s research during the war.

Authors of the book «Wartime Economy And Labour Usage Of Auto Union Chemnitz AG During The Second World War», economic historian Rudolf Boch of the University of Chemnitz, and Martin Kukowski, head of the Department of history at Audi, revealed Audi`s sercret after the study of Audi`s archives during the World War II.

audi-logo

The study is a 500 page large report. It claims that Auto Union (now Volkswagen`s luxury brand marque Audi) built its success based on slavery. The authors said more than 20,000 forced laborers were used in the production of Auto Union (one fifth from concentration camps), and founder Dr Richard Bruhn was responsible for that. Auto Union and Richard Bruhn had been «firmly ensnared in the National Socialist regime.»

Auto Union was liquidated at the end of the war, and Bruhn was interned by British forces. He had close ties to the Nazi Party and met Hitler and Albert Speer during his time as Chairman at Auto Union. He became a member of the Nazi Party in 1933.

Auto Union was founded in 1932 and later on they merged with four other car makers. The automotive conglomeration Auto Union, was incorporated into the Volkswagen family and merged with NSU to form Audi NSU Auto Union, which later became Audi. They dropped the name Audi NSU Auto Union in 1985.

Auto Union built their wealth on human misery and suffering.

1,000 prisoners was forced labourer and many of them were from France. Disabled workers were shipped to the Flossenburg concentration camp to be executed. In 1945, about 700 Zwickau inmates were sent on a death march to Karlovy Vary (Czech Republic), were half of them died on the way.

Ferdinand Porsche helped Volkswagen to build the «people`s car» or Volkswagen. He reached the rank of SS-Oberfuhrer (senior leader) and used the Volkswagen production facilities to manufacture military vehicles for the Nazis.

Some of the leading figures in the Nazi economy became leading builders of the European Union.

For many leaders close to the Nazi regime, Europe became a cover for pursuing German national interest after the defeat of Hitler, says historian Dr Michael Pinto-Duschinsky. An integral part of the Nazi war machine was slave labour.

Not only German car makers were involved in the Nazi party. Another car maker was the U.S made brand Ford, founded by the notorious anti-Semite Henry Ford. He supported Hitler and the Nazi party by sending huge amount of money to Hitler every year on his birthday.

Ford logo

He blamed the Jews for World War I, and wrote many articles under the charming title; «The International Jew: The World`s Foremost Problem.» He received the Grand Cross of the German Eagle in 1938, and that`s the highest medal Nazi Germany awarded to foreign citizens.

Ford`s German operation produced one-third of the militarized trucks used by the German army during the World War II. Much of the labor is done by prisoners. He also used forced labor as early as 1940, when the American arm of the company still had complete control.

Another U.S citizen is J.D Rockefeller who was a major shareholder in Chase Bank (now J.P Morgan Chase). He funded Nazi eugenics experiments before the war. Chase and other U.S banks helped the Germans to raise over $20 million between 1936 and 1941, netting over $1,2 million in commission. Chase pocketed $500,000 which was a lot of money at the time.

Chase Bank froze the accounts to all the French Jews before the Nazis had even gotten around to ask them to.

Hugo Boss designed the SS uniforms and the dabber brown shirts of the SA and the Hitler youth. IBM designed the punch cards that were used to systematize the extermination of people by race and class.

Kodak, Allanz, Nestlè and Genral Electric (GE) was other global businesses that worked with the Nazis to name a few.

Many horrible things happened during the World War II, because people didn`t do something. People were silent. Ignorance is the most violent element in a society, and a nation of sheep will sooner or later have a government of wolves.

People has blamed Jews for nearly everything in hundreds and thousands of years. People blamed them for the stock market crash in the 1870`s. The fact is that the stock market will crash no matter who`s working in the banking system. The concept is very easy;

What goes up – must come down.

It is the nature. Just like the sun. It goes up, reach a top, and goes down again. Look at the waves. It goes up and it goes down again. That`s the nature. Not the Jews. The stock market stops at the top because there aint more money left to go into the market at the top.

Don`t blaime all the German people for what happened during the World War II, because not all of the German people were Nazis. Many of Germany`s businesses is built in a dirty way (but not all of them), and we know that Germany has a large surplus on their budget at the moment.

The German auto industry accounts for around 15% of its manufacturing activity, and about 3% of its GDP. Volkswagen is not a new Lehman Brothers, so it`s not gonna be a new 2008 again. But Germany`s growth is slow and the European economy is not growing in the same pace as the U.S. On top of that they have migrant challenges.

I still don`t know why Volkswagen fudged with the numbers? Mark Twain said once; «It`s easier to fool people than to convince them they have been fooled», but I think it is a risky strategy.

Volkswagen can continue to build great cars, but what`s more important now is to build………….

TRUST!

 

 

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication. UA-63539824-1.

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Car war

 

Tesla (TSLA) produced 7,535 Model S units in Q1 (6,587 in Q4). Guidance was 7,400. The company delivered 6,457 units, slightly above guidance of 6,400. Tesla expects to produce 8,5K – 9K Model S units in Q2, and they expect to deliver 7,500 units.

960_bmw_i8_01

(Picture: BMW i8)

The company expects to be «marginally profitable» in Q2. The EPS consensus is at $0,27. Full-year free cash flow is expected to be slightly negative. Operating cash flow was $61M, and capex totaled $141M. The full-year capes forecast is $650M – $850M.

 

Gross margin was 25,4%. The stock will open down about – 8,5% today. It declined -2,86% yesterday. The stock price is $201,35, and the question is: Are Tesla stocks overvalued? They are doing it well but are Tesla`s market cap reasonable given the results and outlook?

 

Despite the success many companies have, its stock can be massively overvalued, and some investors can have unrealistic expectations going into earnings. They did probably not sell enough cars to satisfy the investors, and they need to sell plenty for the rest of the year to justify current price.

 

So far, they are still in a growth phase, putting cash back into the company to grow. The cost of batteries when they need to be replaced somewhere between 200,000 and 400,000 miles will be significantly cheaper in the future.

 

I think that Tesla is a good brand, but they are not alone on the market, and many other companies will follow. Take a look at BMW i8, which is a plug-in hybrid. The 2015 model has a 7,1 kWh lithium-ion battery pack that delivers an all-electric range of 37 km (23 mi).

 

BMW Vision Efficient Dynamics concept car is a plug-in hybrid with a three cylinder turbo diesel engine. The initial turbo diesel concept car was unveiled at the 2009 Frankfurt Motor Show, and deliveries in Europe are scheduled to begin in next month, and about a month later in the U.S.

 

The problem with Tesla is the limited time on the battery. With BMW i8 you have both, battery and gas, but the battery is in my opinion too small and limited. Anyway; this is just the beginning of a new era in the car industry.

 

Mercedes B-klass Electric Drive will be launched in the U.S soon. The engine is from Tesla, and they will fight against VW e-Golf, Nissan Leaf and BMW i3. The price for the Electric Drive will be $41,450.

 

Daimler are stock owner in Tesla and they are the factory that have developed the engine in the new car. The engine is fast and seems to be a great unit. It is a Tesla engine. Very good for Tesla and CEO Elon Musk, but are the Tesla stock price right?

 

CEO Elon Musk admitted several months ago that the stock price is more than they have any right to deserve. Tesla is overvalued using any reasonable valuation metric. Market cap is $27,000,000,000. This valuation will probably be repriced much lower, and that`s probably why it will plunge today.

 

Tesla have to increase its intrinsic value the next years. If not I think the stock price will decline to a lower level to reflect the company`s right valuation. A bearish commentary from Elon Musk is something long investors should take notice of.

 

 

Reports today:

 

08:30 a.m EST ECB Press Conference

08:30 a.m EST Unemployment Claims

09:30 a.m EST Fed Chair Yellen Testifies

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

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