What`s next in the stock market next year? What about commodities, the dollar, Japan, China and Europe? Let`s take a look at Nariman Behravesh`s (Chief Economist at IHS) predictions for 2015. He expects global growth to pick up to 3 percent from an estimated 2,7 this year.
IHS outlined its top 10 economic predictions that make up its global outlook:
1. U.S. economy will power ahead
The world’s largest economy will continue to outperform its peers, driven by strengthening domestic demand, specifically consumer spending. The dynamics underpinning consumer spending—which accounts for 70 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)—remain very positive, including strong jobs growth, improved household finances and low gas prices. The economy will grow in the 2.5 to 3 percent range, IHS predicts.
2. Euro zone’s struggle to continue
The euro zone will continue to struggle with a weak labor market, but the combination of low oil prices, a weaker euro, reduced fiscal headwinds, easing sovereign debt woes, and an accommodative monetary policy will help lift growth. Expect a very modest acceleration of growth 1.4 percent in 2015 from 0.8 percent this year, says IHS.
3. Japan to emerge from recession
After suffering through its fourth recession in six years, the Japanese economy will rebound in 2015, albeit only to around 1 percent. The Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) easing and additional government stimulus, combined with lower energy prices, will push growth back into positive territory.
4. China will keep slowing
Further support from both monetary and fiscal policy won’t be enough to prevent growth from weakening further to 6.5 percent next year, says IHS. While poor by China’s standards, these growth rates are the envy of all major economies.
5. EMs: a mixed bag
Most emerging economies will see better growth in 2015, thanks to cheaper oil, a boost in global liquidity, and an acceleration in U.S. and European growth. Emerging Europe, Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa will see the largest growth increases. Russia, however, will be a weak spot, reeling from the triple whammy of sanctions, plunging oil prices, and capital flight, says IHS.
6. Commodities slide to extend
Oil prices have plunged around 40 percent since the summer amid feeble global demand compounded by strong supply growth.
China remains key to the demand-side story, IHS says, noting that a further softening of growth will likely translate into another round of price declines. It forecasts commodity prices will slide 10 percent on average next year.
7. Disinflation threat
Disinflationary forces are the strongest in the developed world with commodity prices falling and global growth anemic. The exceptions are emerging markets, such as Russia, that have experienced sharp drops in their exchange rates and, as a result, a spike in inflation.
8. Fed will be the first to hike rates
The Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Canada will start hiking rates in 2015—in June, August, and October, respectively, says IHS, barring a significant softening in inflation. In contrast, the European Central Bank (ECB), BOJ and People’s Bank of China are on track to either cut interest rates further and/or provide more liquidity via asset purchases and other means.
9. Dollar will remain king
The U.S. dollar will continue to strength on strong growth prospects and expectations for Fed rate hikes.
Meanwhile, anticipated additional stimulus by the ECB and BOJ means that both the euro and yen will continue depreciating in 2015. Euro-dollar will fall to $1.15–1.20 by autumn 2015, while dollar-yen will trade in a range of 120–125 next year.
10. Perennial downside risks easing
The global recovery has been plagued by a multitude of “curses” during the past few years, including high public- and private-sector debt levels that have necessitated deleveraging by households corporates and governments, says IHS. But these obstacles to growth are easing in some countries, notably the U.S and U.K., which explains their better-than-average performance.
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