Tag Archives: American Airlines

JetBlue flying high

JetBlue (JetBlue Airways Corporation) has gone straight up. Not only the plane, but also the stock. JetBlue is an American low-cost airline and the 5th largest airline in the United States. The company is headquartered in the Long Island City neighborhood of the New York City borough of Queens, with its main base at John F. Kennedy international Airport.

JetBlue is founded by David Neeleman in 1999, under the name NewAir. This is not the first time I`m writing about David Neeleman. I wrote about him last year when I wrote an article about Azul Airlines, which is one of Brazil`s biggest low-cost airline companies.

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I also wrote about American Airlines long before the oil price started to plunge. The stock is up over 700 percent in just a few years. So is it for JetBlue. The company is a big success. They have rewarded a near sixfold increase in its share price in a few years.

We have seen a broad rally for many airlines stocks. It has been a real «take off». JetBlue`s revenue passenger miles increased 13,3 percent to 3,097 last month. The carrie`s capacity was up 13,1 percent to 3,821 Billion available seat miles. Departures were 10 percent higher YoY, while the average flight length was 1,2 percent longer at 1,068 miles. Passenger revenue per available seat was only up 1 percent since last September.

The stock has been falling this week and J.P Morgan has downgraded the stock from Overweight to a Neutral rating with a new price target of $27. JetBlue`s stock price is now $24 after dropping down earlier this week.

It can be a bit confusing for someone because of the good news we got from JetBlue, but it is also very important to have close look at the oil price. All the airlines stocks are reacting to the oil price which has jumped recently and so will the airlines earnings and revenues. They will decline.

Higher oil price are lowering the airlines stock prices. We can also see that smart money are now more cautious towards some airline stocks. Some hedge funds has sold shares in American Airline, but why are they doing that? Price earnings is only 7,58.

 

JetBlue-chart

(Click the picture to enlarge)

Price earnings in JetBlue is higher, and the stocks`s P/E is 18,32. More than twice as much as American Airlines. JetBlue need to do a great job to execute well in order to satisfy their growth investors. So far, it looks good.

JetBlue`s shares is up over 50 percent so far this year, but have dropped over 7 percent in a few days during some volatile trading. The stock will probably consolidate for some time now.

The shares have performed very well of late, so the stock is just taking a breath right now, while we at the same time are looking for the oil price. J.P Morgan lowered the airline industry`s per-seat revenue outlook for 2016 from growth of 1,3 percent to a drop of -2 percent.

One insider director of JetBlue sold 14,276 shares at $25,39 per share yesterday. Total holding is 601,772 shares. Institutional investors own about 94 percent, while company management own 0,6 percent. Insider ownership last six month is down -12,27 percent, while institutional ownership is down only 0,1 percent last three-month.

JetBlue are flying high in the blue sky.

 

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication. UA-63539824-1.

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Azul and Virgin America IPO

Azul SA is Brazil`s third-biggest airline after TAM and GOL, founded by David Neelman, who also founded JetBlue Airways Corp (JBLU.O). They may become No. 1 as Azul could offer about 3,000 more seats than their biggest competitors. Azul has a 15,9% market share and is the fastest growing airline in Brazil based on passenger kilometers flown, according to the National Civil Aviation Agency. Azul had $1,64 billion (4,2 billion reais) in revenue for the fist nine months in 2014.

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Neelman left JetBlue Airways Corp in 2008 to launch the Brazilian carrier, which is his fourth airline startup.

David Neelman`s family is American, but he was born in Brazil and has Brazilian citizenship. That`s important, because Brazilian law forbids majority foreign ownership of airlines.

Azul SA revived plans for an IPO in Sao Paulo and New York. According to the U.S SEC filing, Azul plans to list referred shares on the Level 2 chapter of the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange, and American depositary shares on the New York Stock Exchange. It doesn`t say when the IPO will take place.

So far, they expect the IPO will be worth around $1 billion. Neelman owns 67% of voting shares and 4,58% of outstanding preferred shares. The private equity firms TPG Growth, Weston Presidio, Grupo Bozano, and Gàveo Investimentos, which is owned by J.P. Morgan, also own stakes in Azul Airline. The shareholders in Azul may sell an unspecified portion of their shares as part of the offering.

According to Azul`s prospectus, the money raised will be used to finance expansion plans and to pay down debt. They plan to buy 38 Airbus A320neo jets and lease 25 more. They have also begun international service with the first flight connecting Brazil and the U.S. In April, they announced plans to start flights to southern Florida early next year, followed by flights to New York, using a dozen leased wide-body jets, first A330-200 and then A350-900 aircraft.

Azul`s president Antonoaldo Neves said they are going to grow the cake, not steel from their competitors. He also said there`s no reason the market can`t double. Brazil`s airline association has said domestic demand is expected to rise to about 200 million passengers by 2020. That`s up 100%.

The IPO comes during a periode with few Brazilian offerings, as the equity issuance market stagnated this year as the economy slipped into a technical recession in the first half of 2014. The falling petroleum prices is helping airline stocks around the world, so the timing could be good. (Read my article “Airlines hammered”, October 14, 2014).

Sir Richard Branson know that. Delta (DAL) and JetBlue (JBLU) are both up over 50% this year. He`s low-cost airline Virgin America (VA) made an impressive debut on Nasdaq. The stock jumped 30,43% to close at $30 on November 2014. Virgin America raised $307 million through the offering.

Virgin America is the U.S offshoot of Branson`s London-based Virgin Group. Branson, through VX Holdings LP, own 24,8% stake after the IPO. The biggest shareholder with 32,8% is the Hedge fund Cyrus Capital Partners LP.

Virgin America has had a troubled time ever since its launch in 2007, and witnessed profits for the first time in 2013. Third quarter profits climbed about 24% buoyed by an increase in passenger traffic and higher fare rates. Revenue was up 4,7%, totaling $405,5 million.

Take note that Virgin America is the only U.S airline company to have gone public since another low-cost carrier, Spirit Airlines went public in 2011. Can Virgin America win this battle with their Wi-Fi service and comfortable leather seats? Will a hip airline work on Wall Street?

Anyway, it`s gonna be hard for Virgin America to fight with big players like American Airlines, Delta Airlines and United Airlines. It`s not going to be easy for Azul either, but investors will not ignore their growth in the future. Nor Azul and Virgin`s competitors.

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Airlines hammered

Many investors are scared right now as it is time for Halloween soon, but Halloween is not the reason. It`s something worse; the stock market.  S&P 500 and Nasdaq had their worst weeks since May 2012, but I don`t think it is a big surprise for someone in the market as this is highly expected.

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Russel 2000 is in a correction territory and DJIA has dropped down about 200 points in four days in a row, and that has not happened in years. Last time we saw volatility like this was in 2011. Equities are a scary thing for investors right now, and that is not because of the coming Halloween.

S&P 500 ended at around the 200 MA and that will be a very important level to watch for in the coming days/weeks. SPX declined 3,1% last week and are now trading 5,6% below its peak of 2019,26 a month ago.

Many sectors are starting to be oversold and this is a good opportunity for many to pick up stocks. Take a look at the oil price, which is declining every day now, trading below $90. The surplus for many in this oil sector is good, so they don`t complain with a price below $90, despite an break-even at $92.

Other sectors will benefit from the declining oil price. American Airlines will benefit from reduced fuel costs and the stock looks cheap. Fuel is the largest expense line for American Airlines and a decline in oil prices will have a huge impact to their bottom line.

On December last year, AMR Corp merged with U.S Airways. They are now the world`s largest airline; American Airlines Group (AAL). The shares doubled since they merged, but the stock have had a pullback which makes it interesting for investors as the fuel cost are making it more profitable.

AAL has delivered great results, have good cash flow levels and their revenue are increasing. They have high-capacity and a strong pricing power, and are expanding its network to China. Those routes is one of the most profitable routes worldwide and they will start to compete with Chinese airlines.

With around $10 billion in cash and possible buyback program, the earnings per share will increase to new highs. The forecast for earnings is $5,21 per share, and with a buyback program, this stock looks undervalued, and EPS would strengthen.

The stock slid -7,15% yesterday and looks cheaper and cheaper every day. Another airline stock to decline was United Continental Airlines (UAL), down 7,29% yesterday. The market trend indicator gave us a bearish reading on stocks and that`s for the first time in some time. If we fall below 1,800 on the S&P 500, the war will be over and the bears are the winners. What  investors are doing now, is jumping from one sector to another.

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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