Category Archives: Stocks

The new wallets

Apple:

Yes, the new wallets is here. Fact is that the new wallets have been on the market for many years now. Some people expected to see a Near Field Communication chip for mobile payments when Apple launched the new Iphone 5 a couple of year ago, but ended up disappointed.

 

Smartphones are predicted to be the new wallets and forecast for mobile payments in 2014 is $7,5B. In 2013 it was $2,1B, and $0,6B in 2012. If this is taking off we can see mobile payments of $70B in 2016. Mobile payments in China have doubled in 2013 and ended up to 218,6 Billion Yuan.

 

The most critical element in this business is the security, but Apple seems to have the right solution for all the customers waiting to pay by smartphones. Apple signed a new patent (#20140019367) on January 16.

 

What about their competitors like Visa, Mastercard, Paypal and others? They should do something before it is too late. Once Apple start with their new mobile payment solution, the card users will slowly disappear. This threath is too big to ignore I think.

 

Stocks & Commodities:

Petrobras (PBR) plummeted 5,8% yesterday and that is an eight year low level, now trading at 13.85 Brazilian reais ($5.69). This is the lowest since july 29, 2005. The overall markets plummeted yesterday, like they historically do when a new Fed chairman comes in, but Twitter went up +1,16%. What is going on here? Any report surprise?

 

Gold is not taking off despite the bearish markets we see now. Right now the gold is trading at $1.252.80, down -0,52%. Silver is also down today, trading at $19.35, down -0,30%. Copper is trading at $319.85, up today +0,47%.

 

Reports:

10:00:00 Factory Orders Forecast: -1,90% Previous: 1,80%
10:00:00 Economic Optimism Forecast: 46,1 Previous: 45,2

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Earnings reports this week

January is behind us, and that was not a good start of the year. The Dow dropped down on friday and are now contributing to a -5,3% January slide, while S&P are trading -3,6% lower. January was a red month.

 

79% of the S&P companies have reported better than expected, but that haven`t helped the markets in January. Earnings reports this week along with jobs reports on Friday will be important reports to follow.

 

Earnings reports continue this week, and some reports to watch this week is Twitter (TWTR), Yelp (YELP), Pandora (P), Bally Technologies (BYI), and LinkedIn (LNKD). I look forward to Twitter`s report (02/05/2014). EPS forecast is -$0,1. This will be their first earnings report since they went public. What about a big surprice?

 

Twitter signed a contract with International Business Machines (IBM) on friday. They acquire 900 patents, and entered into a cross-licensing agreement with the company. The deal with IBM will give Twitter greater intellectual property protection and gives us freedom of action to innovate”, they said.

 

It seems like Twitter is following the same strategy as their rival Facebook. IBM have 41.000 patents and have also sold patents to Google to help the internet giant protect in the patent wars among smrtphone makers. IBM also sold 750 patents to Facebook. The licensing revenue for IBM is approximately $1 billion a year (1% of sales).

 

Pandora`s consensus EPS forecast for the quarter (02/05/2014) is $0,01. Last year is was $-0,09. I can`t remember last time they surpriced the market. Can you beat the estimates now?

 

The overvalued stock Yelp is reporting the same day (02/05/2014), and the estimates for the quarter ended December 2013 is -$0,02. Last year: -$0,06. Yelp is up $10,2% in 2014, and +271% (1 YR).

 

The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter for LinkedIn (02/06/2014), is $0,09. Last year it was $0,1. Come on LinkedIn; do you beat earnings estimates this time? Last year the EPS reports from LinkedIn was mixed. In Mars: $0,22, June: $0,07, September: 0 (-100% surprice).

 

Bally Technologies is down -6,5% in 2014, but are up +50,7% (1 YR). The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $1,02. The same quarter last year was $0,8.

 

Reports today: ISM Manufactoring PMI at 10:00am.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Facebook up 12,4%

So far this year, Facebook is down -2,0%. Yesterday, Mark Zuckerberg launched the new report FQ4earnings, and after that, the stock jumped 12,4% in after hours trading. That is pretty good for a stock that everybody predict will die like a virus and lose about 80% of its users by 2017.

Researchers at University College London stated that Facebook is «dead and buried». The teenagers has escaped and Facebook is not cool anymore. The fact is that Facebook has grown its EPS and revenue last eight quarters, and they have 847 million active users.

Facebooks fourth-quarter revenue topped analysts estimates. Revenue rose 63% to $2,59B. Mobile promotions generated $1,25B and accounted for 53% of advertising revenue. Previous quarter was $49%. Mobile is the key for Facebook, so I think it`s going to be a great battle between Facebook and their competitor Twitter in the future.

Net income rose to $523million, or 20 cents a share. That`s up 17 cents a share from a year ago. As an educated marketer, I will follow both Facebook and Twitter for their battle on the digital-ad market. Twitter will release their first earnings as a public company feb 5. We look forward to that.

It is expected that Facebooks market share will rise to 9% by 2015, while Twitter will grab a 2% share. Facebooks average price of ads is up 92% from a year ago. It will be more quality ads instead of quantity ads. Next week they will celebrate 10 year. Happy birthday.

If the teens have gone from Facebook, where are they? They are on Instagram, and the number of people on that platform is truly remarkable, but right now they don`t have any data for this teen engagement. Facebook is the owner of Instagram.

Last year Facebook offered $3 billion to acquire Snapchat Inc. This platform is also very popular to teenagers. It`s understandable that the younger teens aren`t using Facebook`s website anymore. They have so much other alternatives.

Facebook is not only Facebook. It`s Instagram too. Instagram is growing and has doubled its user base. This mobile photo-sharing service company have 180M MAUs, and that`s pretty good compared to last years 90M MAUs.

Mark Zuckerberg says Facebook is planning to launch several new apps in 2014. They will develop more standalone mobile apps with great new experiences that separates from what you think of as Facebook today.

Facebook Messenger had a 70% growth in the last 90 days. North America still accounted for 47% of the revenue in Q4. Last month, they sold $3,85 billion of shares in a secondary offering. That is Facebook`s first share sale since going public. The stock more than doubled last year.

Holidays starts tomorrow to mark a change in the Chinese zodiac calendar from the snake to the year of the horse. On a day like this, many Chinese people buy gold as a gift and the demand is rising. As you know, the Chinese economy is growing fast, and so are the demand for jewelry, bars and coins. It rose 30% last year, and that is the highest of any nation, World Gold Council data show. Net imports of bullion from Hong Kong more than doubled last year.

Reports today: Advance GDP q/q at 8:30am, Unemployment claims at 8:30 and Pending home sales at 10:00am.

F vs T

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication

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Netflix up 17,96%

Netflix (NFLX) surged 17,96% in after-hours trading yesterday after reporting better than expected results in their Q4 report. They have a strong gain in new subscribers in the U.S, and we are talking about video-streaming subscribers. They added 2,33 million new U.S video-streaming members and have total of 33,4 million subscribers. With the International subscribers, they now have more than 44 million members.

Netflix say they will continue to grow in Q1 this year, and the forecast is 2,25 million new members in the U.S and 1,6 million new users in overseas markets. They say that they expect to report earnings of 78 cents a share in Q1.

The company reported earnings of $48 million, or 79 cents a share, on $1,18 billion in revenue in Q4, 2013. In Q4, 2012, they reported profit of $8 million, or 13 cents a share, on sales of $945 million. A sales growth of 23,30%. That is a great lift.

Netflix is trading at $333,73, and that is 80 times the 2014 EPS estimate. The stock is overvalued, and fair value is estimated to be $180. Netflix will grow, but they have big competition. Don`t forget the history in this stock. This stock very volatile. So far this year, the stock is down -9,4%.

Just for fun; let`s take a look at their ROA compared with some of their competitors. Have a look at the chart below:

Company Market Cap ROA
Target 37,3 Bill 5
Dish Network`s 25,9 Bill 4
Netflix 19,8 Bill 1,7
Verizone 135,4 Bill 0,9
Amazone 185,2 Bill 0,5
Blockbuster 1,5 Mill -20

It has been a great week so far, with no «noice» from the Fed. No major reports this week, except today. Probably not so good for day traders who trade on these news, but great for the investors, so they can focusing on the stock market, company`s earnings and all the Q4 reports coming out at the moment.

Reports today: Unemployment Claims at 8:30am, Flash Manufacturing PMI at 9:00am, Existing Home Sales at 10:00am, Crude Oil Inventories 11:00am.

Reed Hastings

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication

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Picking stocks

Now it is time for investors to do their homework. How do you find the right stocks? How do you find the best stocks? What is the magic number? First of all; you must know what makes a stock good and other stocks bad. So, what is the magic numbers?

Finding great stocks is not so difficult as you think. Unfortunately, the magic numbers doesn`t exist. But it is some metrics you have to look for that is more important than others. I often start to look at a company’s ROA (return on assets).

ROA (return on assets)

This is the leading measure of a company`s effectiveness. It tells you how effective the management are using the assets. ROA tells you what earnings were generated from invested capital (assets). It is best to compare a company`s ROA with the previous ROA numbers, or you can compare it with a similar company.

Definition of Return On Assets – ROA

An indicator of how profitable a company is relative to its total assets. ROA gives an idea as to how efficient management is at using its assets to generate earnings. Calculated by dividing a company’s annual earnings by its total assets, ROA is displayed as a percentage. Sometimes this is referred to as “return on investment”.

The formula for return on assets is:

ROA = Net Income/Total Assets

Note: Some investors add interest expense back into net income when performing this calculation because they’d like to use operating returns before cost of borrowing.

Both debt and equity is the company`s assets and they are used to fund the operations of the company. The higher the ROA number is, the better it is. In this case, it tells you that the company are earning more money on less investments and that is a sign of an effective company.

For example:

Company A has a net income of $2 million. Total assets is $5 million. ROA is 40% (2/5 = 40%).

Company B has a net income of $2 million. But the assets is twice as much as Company A, which is $10 million. ROA is 20% (2/10 = 20%).

Who is the best? Company A have a higher ROA than Company B, which means Company A is better than Company B. It is because Company A is better to convert its investments into profit.

This is why investors sometimes want to change a company’s leader, because they are not satisfied with their earnings. The leader and a company`s management are doing a very important job. Not only for their company and their employees, but also for the investors and not at least the society. It`s all about makes big money with small investments. That`s it.

Also remember that ROA is often referred to as ROI, and we add the interest expense to ignore the costs associated with funding those assets. So, ranking company’s by size is meaningless. It`s interesting to know the size of a company, but ranking companies by size of their assets is completely meaningless. It`s better to look at ROA and how a company is better than another to squeeze profit from its assets, regardless of size.

ROA is far away from being the ideal investment tool. The return numerator of net income can be suspect. Assets as we know, is also numbers that is valued in the balance sheet.

You can`t always compare companies with ROA, because the assets is not what it seems to be. You can`t see people, ideas, trademark, brands or patents in the assets. A grocery have more assets than an online techno company. The techno company`s assets will be understated, and it`s ROA may get a questionable boost. Two of the worlds biggest company`s is Apple and Exxon Mobile. You can`t compare them. Two different comany`s in two different industries with two different assets. Appel`s ROA is 19,3, while Exxon Mobil`s ROA is 10. 

All in all; ROA makes it easier for investors to recognize good stocks and minimizing the risk of doing a bad investment with bad stocks.

No major reports today.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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