Category Archives: Stocks

The goal to end “too big to fail” and protect the American taxpayer by ending bailouts is only a goal

It was a great day for banks on Wednesday, while all the big banks were up, leading the financial sector as the big winner. Up +2,27%. All the banks on my screen is in green, and the most active bank shares are JPMorgan Chase & Co, Bank of America, Citigroup Inc and Wells Fargo & Co.

JPMorgan Chase & Co reported a quarterly profit that topped low market expectations. The drop in profit was the first in five quarters, but investors was focusing on the positives and pushed the bank stocks up. Not only JPMorgan Chase & Co, but also its competitors.

Banking regulators like Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation gave a failing grade to five big banks on Wednesday, on their plans for a bankruptcy giving them until October 1 to make amends or risk sanctions.

 

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According to Reuters, this could end with braking up the banks, and it underscore how the debate about banks being «too big to fail» continues to rage in Washington. This is the first time regulators have issued joint determinations flunking banks` plans, commonly called «living wills».

If the banks do not correct serious «deticiencies» in their plans by October, they could face stricter regulations, like higher capital requirements or limits on business activities.

The requirement for a living will was part of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street reform legislation passed in the wake of the 2007-2009 financial crisis, when the U.S government spent billions of dollars on bailouts to keep big banks from failing and wrecking the U.S economy.

The plans they have are separate from the Fed`s stress tests, where banks demonstrate stability by showing how they would withstand economic shocks in hypothetical scenarios.

«The FDIC and Federal Reserve are committed to carrying out the statutory mandate that systemically important financial institutions demonstrate a clear path to an orderly failure under bankruptcy at no cost to taxpayers,» FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg said in a statement.

«Today`s action is a significant step toward achieving that goal.»

Thomas Hoenig said the plans show that no firm is «capable of being resolved in an orderly fashion through bankruptcy.»

«The goal to end «too big to fail» and protect the American taxpayer by ending bailouts remains just that: only a goal.»

The biggest banks doesn`t have any plans for themselves if a new financial crisis are turning into panic and chaos, which means, if the panic hit the market today, the government need to prop up the banks called «too big to fail» if they want to avoid financial chaos.

Democratic president candidate Hillary Clinton said regulators need to break big banks apart if they don`t fix their living will problems over time. Bernie Sanders, said on Twitter that many banks have only gotten bigger since they were bailed out during the financial crisis.

One of them is obviously not Citigroup. They have cut more than 26% of its assets since its peak in 2007. Citiygroup was the largest U.S bank but is now ranked number 4 (ranked by assets).

The regulators continue to assess plans for four foreign banks labeled «systemically important» and that is Barclays PLC, Credit Suisse Group, Deutsche Bank AG, DBKGN.DE, and UBS Group AG. Citigroup`s living will did pass, but regulators noted it had «shortcomings.»

I will look for Citigroup`s report on Friday.

 

sam

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Bank of America is still projecting favorable YoY growth of 4% on the bottom line

Bank of America peaked in October 2006 at $54, and started to decline after that. It plummeted during the financial crisis and you had the chance to buy the stock below $4 in early 2009. That feels like a «bank robbery». What now as the price is $13,27?

Buying Bank of America at about $4 is ridiculously cheap, but $13,27 is still cheap. This can be a big scoop for value investors as Bank of America is paying a great annual dividend. The financial crisis reduced its dividend to only $0,01 per share, but later increased to $0,05 in 2014.

The bank`s yield comes in a solid third place among its competitors like JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citygroup. The shares are trading well below its book value and they allocated $4 billion on share buybacks compared to about $2 billion for dividend payments.

 

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Warren Buffett bought $5 billion worth of shares in Bank of America in 2011. Many investors were skeptical about that decision because the bank had adopted a ton of risky loans when it bought Merrill Lynch and Countrywide Financial. It was very risky at that time. On top of that if was only three years after the financial crisis.

I bet Warren Buffett knew what he was doing; being greedy when others were fearful. Four years later, he doubled his money and on top of that he got six percent dividend for his preferred shares. Buffett and value investors will not the next bears I think, but there are many things to fear.

Chinas slowing growth can be a reason to dump the stock. So can possible a «Brexit». Bank of America is warning its managers to not use the word «Brexit» when they talk to their customers. They doesnt want to support one side or the other in the all-important June 23 vote.

Bank of America has plummeted more than 20% so far in 2016, and remain in the worst position of the retail banks. The bank topped its earnings expectations in Q4 and managed to miss revenue expectations by about $500 million.

The trend is not good for the bank and this trend is expected to continue as they has forecasted further weakness in its trading and investment banking revenue. Projected YoY declines in these segments outpace the losses of its peers.

The energy sector along with increased expenses and larger capital deployment will hamper the banks earnings this quarter.

Many large banks have large loan exposure to risky assets in the oil & Gas industry. 3,8% of total outstanding loans, or $21,8 billion is related to energy loans in Bank of America. In comparison, JPMorgan has 6% of total outstanding loans, or $42,1 billion.

Energy borrowers announced draws of more than $3 billion in Q1. What will Bank of America say about that and what is the banks next step in the energy sector?

Estimize expect an earnings per share of $0,25, which is two cents higher than Wall Street, on $20,87 billion in revenue, about $28 million ahead of the sell-side. Estimates have been feverishly cut ahead of its earnings, falling 18% in the past 3 months.

That said, Bank of America is still projecting favorable YoY growth of 4% on the bottom line.

 

sam

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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All eyes on bank stocks this week

The earnings season starts off slowly this week with Alcoa reporting after the bell today. Later on this week we will see reports from many banks.

The first trading day of the year didn`t start good, and the first 10 trading days of 2016 slid 8% on S&P 500 Index. That is the worst start to any trading year over the long history on this index dating back to 1928.

In the middle of February, the stock market turned up again. Stock turned down 10,5% in a stock market correction but went straight up again, rallying 13,5% off the lows. The European market didn`t follow, and the biggest losers in Europe is the banking sector.

Sweden, Denmark, Switzerland and Germany have negative interest rate, and banks are suffering from that, which means profit margins are under pressure. So is it for the U.S banks. They are suffering too. The S&P 500 Financial Sector is one of the worst performing domestic sectors, down about 5% YTD.

 

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S&P 500 is near its 2015 peak and corporate profits will drive the stock prices and market. But is it going up or down? First quarter earnings expectations is not the best I have seen, and this will be the first time S&P 500 has had four-straight quarter of declining profitability since the Great Recession in 2008.

According to Merril Lynch, the three-month earnings revision ratio improved during March for the first time since last July. The downward momentum of profit estimates has also slowed. On the other hand; Wall Street are cutting more company earnings estimates than they are increasing.

It can be helpful to look at earnings revisions going forward rather than current quarter earnings results.

Wall Street analysts are less negative about the profit for the big U.S stocks, and this is why Dow Jones Average has been outperforming with all its multi-national blue chips. Their overseas sales are increasing because of a weaker dollar which is helpful for a bigger demand.

Three winning sectors over the past three months is industrials, materials and health care. Materials and health care has been lagging the S&P 500 last year and improving earnings can help both sectors to increase again.

The country`s largest bank JPMorgan Chase & Co will report on Wednesday. Bank of American and Wells Fargo & Co on Thursday, and Citygroup Inc on Friday. Investors will wait for reports from Morgan Stanley on Monday next week and Goldman Sachs the following day.

Banks typically earn about one-third of their annual revenue during the first three months of the year, but some of the banks (Goldman) is expected to come in with the lowest first-quarter earnings since before the financial crisis.

JPMorgan is expected to report adjusted earnings of $1,36 per share, Bank of America $0,25  per share, Wells Fargo: 99 cents per share, Citygroup: $1,11 per share, and Morgan Stanley: $0,63  per share. Goldman Sachs: 3,00 per share.

Banks have a lot of challenges.

 

sam

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Facebook acquired Masquerade to compete with Snapchat`s “Lenses”

Facebook acquired one of the most popular apps in the App Store at the moment; Masquerade. Mark Zuckerberg probably learned a lesson when Facebook acquired WhatsApp, so Facebook will not reveal how much they paid for Masquerade.

According to App Annie, Masquerade has an average rating of 5 stars and remain at the top of App Store`s charts. Masquerade is only a couple of months old and has become a huge hit in a short period of time.

 

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Their products deliver the level of performance, robustness and quality not seen in any other products available on the market. Real-time video communication is quickly growing in popularity, and Masquerade strives to make live video interaction even more attractive for both business customers and consumers by offering advanced software solutions capable of altering and/or enhancing person`s appearance in live video.

A proprietary self-learning face tracking algorithm as well as a framework for creating special effects, which have been in development since 2010, are Masquerade`s crown jewels. They have accumulated enormous expertise in solving the problem of face detection and tracking.

Facebooks aquisition will compete with Snapchats app called «lenses» wich was launched last year. Snapchat acquired Looksery and introduced animated overlays for selfies with great success.

The King of social media is also planning to make the new app MSQRD a standalone free app in addition to an integrated app on Facebook`s platform. The effects are joining other creative tools Facebook has added to its app already, like stickers, fingers doodles, and photo filters.

With the selfie-app MSQRD, you can do face-swaps and record silly video animations of yourself and share them across social video.

Drop your good old video selfies and make it more fun and interesting with MSQRD.

 

sbnews

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Can Vevo be the “new” MTV

YouTube is a popular video-sharing website founded by three former PayPal employees in 2005. Google acquired YouTube one year later for $1,65 billion. YouTube has more than 4 billion views per day, and some of them are Vevo videos.

Vevo is a multinational video hosting service owned and operated by a joint venture of Universal Group (UMG), Sony Music Entertainment (SME), Abu dhabi Media and Google. It all started in December 2009, and Vevo hosts videos syndicated across the web.

Kendrick Lamar were one of the big winners (along with Taylor Swift) at the 58th annual Grammy Awards 2016. Lamar took home five awards out of 11 nominations. You can stream Lamar`s Vevo-video ”King Kunta” on YouTube.

 

 

Warner Music Group was initially reported to be considering hosting its content on the service, but formed an alliance with rival MTV Networks (now Viacom Media Networks).

MTV is a strong brand, and brand value as of May 2015 are $6,2 billion, with sales coming in at $3,4 billion. Google and Vevo are sharing the advertising revenue, and net income was $760 million in 2013.

MTV is an old well-known brand, founded in 1981. The New York City based company is an American basic cable and satellite television channel. The original purpose of MTV was to play music videos VJ`s (video jockeys). That was then. What now?

MTV is not a 100% pure music television anymore, but consist more reality, comedy and drama. What kind of Music Television is that?

So is it for YouTube. It`s a channel for everything, but when more than 300 hours new videos are being uploaded to YouTube every minute, it speaks for itself. Music videos will drown in competition with cats and dogs and other funny videos.

So, CEO Erik Huggers has a plan. He revealed plans for a paid subscription, according to Code/Media. He said he wanted to be the ”specialty store” to YouTube`s ”supermarket,” adding that Vevo can offer a better experience than what he described as a ”lowest common denominator for all type of content out there.”

”If were really honest and look in the mirror, we can say gosh, were a watermark on the third-party player (YouTube),” CEO Erik Huggers said. Vevo today is all about ad-supported, so their next step is subscription.

In addition, Vevo is trying to make its own music-related content, which is a strategy Tidal, Apple Music and Spotify have tried with varying degrees of success.

YouTube Red can give you everything on YouTube ad-free. How are Vevo gonna compete with that? They need to create a very exclusive channel to survive I think. Time will show.

sbsunfaded

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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