Category Archives: Stock market

Cyber Monday can be the largest online sales day in history

Black Friday is over and now it is Cyber Monday. A new day with new opportunities. It`s Cyber Monday shopping for consumers to shop online, but it seems like it is Cyber Monday shopping on Wall Street too.

The Dow is up a whopping 373 pints amid expectations for a historic Cyber Monday. Nasdaq jumped 2,30 percent and ended at 6,677,26. I talked about the declining SPDR S&P Retail ETF on Friday last week, but it bounced back on Monday, up nearly 2 percent.

The shares of retailers rose on Monday after last week`s sell off. According to Adobe analytics, Cyber Monday spending is seen reaching an all-time high of $7,25 billion in the United States, and that will mark a historic day for online shopping.

Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Cyber Monday and the coming Holiday Season can help to lift retailers from the declining trend we have seen since October. The third-quarter reporting season is also over, with nearly 97 percent of companies in the S&P 500 having reported. 78 percent of the companies beat analyst expectations.

Cyber Monday is an event that can only be rivaled by Black Friday, and Cyber Monday is expected to set new spending records for online shopping in 2018. Not only total sales are high on Cyber Monday, but Cyber Monday is also likely to see a record number of online shoppers this year.

Cyber Monday was wild last year, but it jumped nearly 100 percent from 2016 to 2017. This year, the online sale is expected to jump over 10 percent. $7,25 billion in sales will be a new record for online sales in a single day.

Trade tensions will come back later on this week as President Donald Trump is planning to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping at a multilateral Summit in Argentina on Friday and Saturday, with tariff escalation between the world`s largest economies on the line.

Investors are waiting for the G20 Summit convening in Buenos Aires on Friday and Saturday. In the mean time, be prepared for what can be the largest online sales day in history; Cyber Monday.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Deutsche Bank are struggling and the stock has plummeted since the financial crisis

Deutsche Bank reached a top right before the financial crisis in 2007. The stock peaked at $122, but since then it has plummeted. Some people think that this is the end of the bank and some think that the bank will come back. The stock closed at $10,70 on Tuesday.

The bank has been struggling for years but they are not alone. They have a lot of challenges inside its own bank, but European monetary policy and other political risk are also something investors should have on their watch list. Deutsche Bank will report earnings on Wednesday.

Deutsche Bank said in a report that it intends to reduce personnel by at least 7 000 by the end of 2019. It`s a big challenge to reduce personnel cost for German corporations, because the labor laws are very strict.

European banks (EUFN) has suffered so far in 2018. UKs RBS and Barclay's is down. So are Switzerlands UBS, Spains Santander and Netherlands ING, but Germany`s Deutsche Bank is one of the worst.

The Fed continues to tighten but the ECB is till «printing» money. We know the story of some of the U.S banks. They have gone straight up, but the stocks in Europe have under-performed despite the fact that the ECB continued to blow up the balance sheet.

The ECB balance sheet has gone straight up in three years while the Euro stoxx has slowly declined. So is it for the P/E ratio of the MSCI Europe Index (IEUR) which is down about 50 percent.

Two former Deutsche Bank AG traders were found guilty by a New York jury on Wednesday last week of engaging in a scheme to manipulate the Libor benchmark interest rate between 2005 and 2011.

Libor (the London interbank offered rate) underpins trillions of dollars of financial products and is based on what banks say they believe they would pay if they borrowed from other banks. A case like this didn`t help the banks reputation.

Deutsche Bank has long been struggling to turn a profit under CEO John Cryan`s tenure, but earlier this year, Christian Sewing replaced Cryan and became new CEO of the bank. Deutsche Bank is working hard to strengthen its brand in its home market.

Sewing is known for being a cost-cutter. So far, he has cut about 1,700 jobs and eliminated daily office fruit bowls. He is also planning to shrink the New York office by 30 percent and move away from Wall Street.

The bank`s revenue is down 21 percent in the last two years. It seems it will drop again this year and that will be to its lowest level in a decade. They are also losing market share.

A few years ago, people were waiting for their turn to pay bills in the bank. And you know what, they paid for it. Of course. An employee did it for the customers. They paid for the service. But this has changed.

Now, people have internet and they can log in to their own bank account and do all the job alone. But who is paying for it now? The customers. The one that is doing the job. Wow. What kind of service is that? You do the job and you pay for it. That`s business. But it will change. This way of thinking belongs to the old school.

Deutsche Bank AG is expected to report earnings on Wednesday 24 October 2018 before market open. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending September 2018. The reported Earnings for the same quarter last year was $0,35.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Larry Kudlow said the single biggest news story is the economic boom

Nobody believed in a 4,1 percent growth in the U.S, but now it can jump to around 4,6 percent. The economic boom in the U.S is awesome. There is no doubt that President Trump has given the U.S economy a new life.

Larry Kudlow know what he is talking about. A man who began his career as a junior financial analyst at the New York Federal Reserve. He soon left government to work on Wall Street at Paine Webber and Bear Stearns as a financial analyst.

Kudlow joined the administration of Ronald Reagan as associate director for economics and planning in the Office of Management and Budget. Kudlow is a man I have been watching many times on CNBC, and now he is serving as Director of the National Economic Council under President Trump.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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S&P 500 P/E ratio is 24,34 and the bull market is similar to the 50`s

The bull market continues and the S&P 500 went up in April, May, June and July. So, «Sell in May and go away» would be a disaster for any investor on this planet this year. Just like it was in the 50`s under president Eisenhower. This is not a normal situation in the midterm election.

As you can see from the chart below, similar situation happened in 1954 and 1958. Apple Inc is a big contributor to the bullish market right now, and it just hit a $1 trillion market cap. A milestone we have never seen before for a U.S publicly traded company.

Not only Apple Inc are hitting milestones. Many of the stock exchanges around the world are also hitting now all-time highs. But how expensive are the U.S stocks? The P/E ratio of the S&P 500 has fluctuated from a low of around 6x in 1949 to over 120x in 2009.

The long-term average P/E for the S&P 500 is around 15x, meaning that the stocks that make up the index collectively command a premium 15 times greater than their weighted average earnings.

The trailing P/E ration will change as the price of a company`s stock moves, since earnings are only released each quarter while stocks trade day in and day out. Current S&P 500 PE ratio are down -0,13 percent on Thursday 2 August 2018 (based on trailing twelve month) to 24,34.

Some investors prefer forward P/E which is similar to the trailing P/E, but uses estimates of projected future earnings, typically forecast over the next twelve months. If the forward P/E ratio is lower than the trailing P/E ratio, it means analysts are expecting earnings to increase. If it is higher, analysts expect a decrease in earnings.

These measures are often used when trying to gauge the overall value of a stock index, such as the S&P 500 since these longer term measures can compensate for changes in the business cycle.

A business cycle describes the rise and fall in production output of goods and services in an economy. Business cycles are generally measured using rise and fall in real inflation-adjusted GDP, which includes output from the household and nonprofit sector and the government sector, as well as business output.

Output cycle is therefore a better description of what is measured. The business or output cycle should not be confused with market cycles, measured using broad stock market indices; or the debt cycle, referring to the rise and fall in household and government debt.

To put it into perspective. Apple`s P/E is 18,04. Facebook; 24,56. Netflix; 144,43. Amazon; 165,60. Yelp; 625,17. Groupon; 230,15. Godaddy; 227,27. Under Armour; 136,36. Alibaba; 48,25. S&P 500 is 24,34, so how expensive are they all?

It looks like Amazon are expensive, but that company is up 84,75 percent YoY, while Apple with its 18,14 is up only 35,26 percent. Facebook has lost a lot of money in a few days, and the stock is up only 5,45 percent YoY. Estimated P/E for Tesla in 2019 is – 177,68. The stock went up over 16 percent on Thursday.

Investors need to be aware that the P/E ratio can be misleading a lot of times, especially when the underlying business is cyclical and unpredictable. Cyclical businesses have higher profit margins at the peaks of the business cycles. Their earnings are high and P/E ratios are artificially low. It is usually a bad idea to buy a cyclical business when the P/E is low. A better ratio to identify the time to buy a cyclical businesses is the P/S ratio.

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This is the best start for the S&P 500 in nearly 20 years

What a great start of the year 2018. The best weekly gain in more than a year and the bull market continue to surprise many investors. Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped over 25,000 and nearly all of the 100 companies in the Nasdaq rose.

It is also the best start for the S&P 500 since 1999. Analysts forecasts looks pretty good and economic fundamentals are strong enough to lift the stocks higher. President Trump`s tax cut will also be good for the stock market.

It is difficult to find any reasons for a backdrop in the market. A rate hike or two wont stop investors to continue the party. What they really like is Mr Trump`s lower corporate taxes and that will not only help the U.S but also the global economic growth.

U.S stocks are looking good but European stock look even better. A great rally in European stocks so far is based on growth data for the Euro Zone. Services PMI data showed the Euro area was near its best growth in 7 years.

It has been a boost for STOXX 600 and we can thank European banks like Bank Santander and BNP Paribas for that. The outlook for European equities looks good and it is estimated a close to 10% earnings growth in 2018.

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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