Category Archives: Emerging markets

World`s biggest election

 

The world`s largest democracy has a new leader and his name is Narendra Modi. India`s opposition leader Narendra Modi is on course to become prime minister in India, as his party heads for a majority in the national elections.

India

India is a country in South Asia and is the seventh-largest country by area, the second-most populous country with over 1.2 billion people. It shares land borders with Pakistan to the west, China, Nepal and Bhutan to the north-east, and Burma and Bangladesh to the east.

 

The Indian economy is the world`s tenth-largest by nominal GDP and third-largest by purchasing power parity (PPP). Following market-based economic reforms in 1991, India became one of the fastes-growing major economies; it is considered a newly industrialised country.

 

India continue to face the challenges of poverty, corruption, malnutrition, inadequate public healthcare and terrorism. It has the third-largest standing army in the world and ranks eight in military expenditure among nations.

 

Jawaharlal Nehru became India`s first prime minister in 1947. Mahatma Gandhi led the independence movement. Economic liberalisation, which was begun in the 1990`s has created a large urban middle class, which transformed India into one of the world`s fastet-growing economies.

 

This is the longest election in the country`s history. The Indian general election of 2014 was held to constitute the 16th Lok Sabha in nine phases, from 7 April to 12 May 2014. The electoral population in 2014 election was 814,5 million and this is the largest election in the world ever.

 

Parties were expected to spend US$5 billion in the election, and this is three times the amount spent in the previous election in 2009, and is the world`s second highest after the US$7 billion spent on the 2012 presidental election.

 

Modi fought an impressive campaign, focused mostly on the right issues. He successfully cast the election as a referendum on who could better deliver jobs, government services and economic growth: himself or Rahul Gandhi, the ruling Congress party`s heir apparent.

 

Modi is not the first candidate to cruise to victory on hope and hype. He will probably not be the first to see disappointment set in fast. Investors expecting miracles are in for a letdown, because India`s political system is bound to intervene.

 

Modi should move to phase out petroleum subsidies. He should give states and local governments much greater flexibility in regulating labor markets, land and sales. Economic competition among the states should be more in focus because this is the best way to push the national economy forward.

 

I personally see India as an attractive investment destination, and this country has overtaken China as an investment opportunity. Great Indian sectors are automotive, technology and consumer products. India is playing a big role in the gold market.

 

Reports today:

 

08:30 a.m EST Building Permits

08:30 a.m EST Housing Starts

09:55 a.m EST Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

09:55 a.m EST Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

 

Leave a comment

Filed under Emerging markets

Draghi speaks

Shares rose today following gains in Asia, while the Euro held steady on speculation the European Central Bank would ease monetary policy later in the day. The economy in the Euro zone is still fragile and the ECB was expected to keep interest rates on hold.

Emerging stocks and currencies were broadly higher as diplomatic talks to moderate the crises in Ukraine were set to continue. The European leaders are having a meeting in Brussels today. They will discuss Russia and warn them but not sanction them, diplomats said.

Fears of military confrontation is reduced, and the attention now has shifted to what ECB will do now. Investors are waiting for Draghi today. ECB may hesitate to buy government bonds, unlike other major central banks like U.S Fed and BoJ.

The problem in Europe is high unemployment rate and slow growth. Will all this end up in deflation? The Euro is now traded at $1,3720 and it is expected to hear dovish talking from Draghi later today.

When the risk in Ukraine is reduced, the dollar strengthened against the safe-haven yen. It went up half a percent at 102,7 yen. The dollar index rose, which measures the greenback against a currency basket.

Reports today:

08:15 AM ET FOMC Member Dudley speaks
08:30 Am ET ECB Press Conference
08:30 AM ET Unemployment claims
08:30 AM ET Revised Nonfarm Productivity
10:00 AM ET Factory orders m/m
01:00 PM ET FOMC Member Plosser speaks

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

Leave a comment

Filed under Emerging markets, Stock market

Smartphone prices are dropping

This week is a Smartphone week with the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona. This congress is the industry`s biggest annual trade fair. Everybody at the congress is talking about the smartphones. So, what`s up in this business industry?

Apple

The problem with all the smartphones is like the car industry. Their all look the same, which means it is hard to differentiate themselves from the competitors. The strongest brands in this industry is no doubt Apple and Samsung.

 

It is predicted that the growth in global smart phone shipments will fall sharply in 2014 and keep falling for the next four years. The average price will drop sharply as the demand shifts to China and other developing countries.

 

More low-cost devices are coming out to the market to retail at near $100 or cheaper than that. Those devices has a lack of some of the features of the top models, which is more expensive. It is the low-cost Chinese players with enough technical and design expertise that is now coming to the market and draw down the prices.

 

We are talking about brands like Huawei (the world`s third biggest phone maker), Lenovo, TCL Communications and more unknown brands like Oppo, CorePad and Gionee that is poised to be big known brands in the coming years. All of them coming from the world`s largest phone market.

 

China`s ZTE Corp are searching for tech solutions to reach the $50 price target, but the strong demand is pushing up the cost of the components which is a surprising twist in an industry more familiar with falling material prize as technology evolves.

 

Components like screen display, keyboards and memory are key hardware components wich is important to differentiate them all from the other smartphones. Alcatel`s Onetouch brand owned by TCL launched a new sub-$100 smartphone this week.

 

I don`t think you can expect to see Apple and Samsung selling their smartphones for $100 or lower the coming year. Nope. Forget it.

 

Reports today:

 

  08:30 AM ET Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)
  10:00 AM ET Fed Chair Yellen testifies

 

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

Leave a comment

Filed under Emerging markets, Stocks

Emerging markets

It`s all green and it`s all up in the European markets today. It`s mixed in Asia. Today, everyone has their eyes on the Twitter IPO. A very risky investment for investors right now. You all know what went wrong with Facebook. Twitter is about 50% more risky than Facebook.

Befor the Twitter IPO I will write about the Emerging Markets. Three new investment opportunities today:

Turkey

GDP growth, 2013 to 2017: 21.2%.

Inflation rate: 5.4%.

Government debt as % of GDP: 36.3.

Thailand

GDP growth, 2013 to 2017: 25.9%.

Inflation rate: 2.7%.

Government debt as % of GDP: 49.4.

South Korea

GDP growth, 2013 to 2017: 22.9%.

Inflation rate: 2.9%.

Government debt as % of GDP: 27.3.

South Korea, together with Mexico and Czech Republic are among the most attractive countries. That`s because they are less reliant on foreign finance. That`s good news for investors because they don`t know what`s gonna happen in Capitol Hill and the White house.

Some of the nations in the EM`s will see more capital outflows in the next months as the investors starts to break it down to good EM`s and bad EM`s. The prospect of the Fed reducing its stimulus is a “persistent” external risk, South Korea Finance Minister Hyun Oh Seok said.

I look forward to write about Twitter tomorrow. A risky stock, and I am just waching the trading session now. News today: Crude oil inventories at 10:30am. Forecast: 1,7M.

emerging-markets-sign

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

Leave a comment

Filed under Emerging markets

Where is the bull?

Where is the shiny bull? That`s the question if you don`t know where to invest your money. BRIC is well known, but is it other opportunities than the BRIC`s? Yes, it is. The International Monetary Fund estimates that emerging markets will grow two to three times faster than those of developed nations in the coming decade.

I was looking at different cases and have identified three more emerging markets that represent rich opportunities for investors. This is emerging markets that no other people are talking about. It’s time to start looking beyond BRICS! There’s a whole new world out there. Have a look at this:

Czech Repubic

As I have mentioned earlier, Europes P/E is 10, and is very attractive. Czech Republic has a projected GDP growth rate of 21,1% by 2017. It`s a good market for specialist retailers, and sales in this sector is CZK 103,244.9 million in 2011. It`s expected to increas to CZK 366,014.3 million by 2016. Food and grocery is the main earners, followed by electrical and electronics. Furthermore, it is expected that the latter will generate annual sales of CZK61,920.7 in 2016.

Peru

Take a look at this; GDP growth of 27,4% from 2013 – 2017. Peru is perfect for food and drink speciality manifacturers. They account for 33,4% with sales of PEN19,134.9 million in 2011. The three fastest growing specialist retailer categories are apparel, accessories and luxury goods. This sectors grow by 7,71% and food and grocery grow by 7,24%. Electrical and electronics grow by 7,02%. Construction industry expanded by 18,4% only in january this year.

Malaysia

This is better than China. This Asian country is predicted to rise it`s GDP growth by an astonishing 24,8% by 2016. In 2011, food and drinks was their speciality retail with sales of MYR18,907.2 million in 2011. It is expected to be a huge increas in the sales of music, video and entertainment, and that is the quickest growing categories in Malaysia in 2016.

There are more interesting cases in the emerging markets that should be on our radar, but I consentrated on only three of them right now. I will talk about three other interesting investments opportunities later. I told you earlier that P/E in Europe is 10, and in USA it is 20. But I am alerting you right now: P/E in Indonesia is 30!

Today I will look at this news: Personal Spending & Core PCE Price Index at 8:30am, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment at 9:55am.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

Leave a comment

Filed under Emerging markets