Tag Archives: Yahoo

by | April 26, 2016 · 9:00 am

Yahoo is for sale – what about Twitter?

Everybody believed in tech stocks in the late 90`s and some investors were buying tech share with both hands, but you all know what happened. The tech bubble burst, just like all bubbles do. Many of the tech companies lost everything they had and so did its investors.

But some survived and one of them is Yahoo. You know what Yahoo is right? Well, I know what Google is. It is a search engine. And Apple is iPhone, but what about Yahoo? What is it? What I know right now, is that Yahoo is for sale.

More than 10 bids is on the table and some of the bidders are Verizon and YP Holdings. Yahoo`s CEO Merissa Mayer has not succeeded after a three-year turnaround and «sale» is a top priority for Mayer. What about Twitter? Are Jack Dorsey in the same boat?

 

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Twitter is trading at about $17 which is well below its IPO price of $26. Its market cap is now $11,77 billion, and Twitters MAUs has formerly plummeted. That is not music in investors ears. They expect more than that.

If you compare Yahoo with Twitter you can see that Twitter is much more than Yahoo which is nothing without its huge stake in Alibaba and Yahoo Japan. So, if you take away Alibaba and Yahoo Japan, there is nothing left. Twitter has so far more than that.

Investors must realize that Twitter is more like LinkedIn Corp. A niche company. LinkedIn Corp is valued at about 6 billion more than Twitter but it would be difficult for them do be the next Facebook I think.

Twitter`s User growth is not looking good. Since 2013, the user growth have plummeted, and the company do many things to turn around the ugly trend, but that is very expensive. Twitter paid less than $10 million for the digital right to NFL games, which is very reasonable given the $20 million that Yahoo paid last year.

In comparison, CBS/NBC paid $450 million for the same 10 games, but Twitter feed is essentially a rebroadcast of CBS/NBC games with ads. The drawback for Twitter is that of the 70 ads throughout the game, it can only sell 15-20.

Twitter sounds like a NFL team to me. If it goes the wrong way they start to fire the coach. It nothing happens, they will do the same again and hire a new one. Twitter have had 6 heads of products in 6 years and 3 CFO`s in 4 years, and three heads of engineering in 3 years. Wow!

Im not so shure that the people are the problem at Twitter. The user growth is declining and their platform have about one billion inactive users. Im not shure what Steve Ballmer think about the company but fire Jack will not change Twitter`s core business and niche product.

They can continue to spend money on NFL games to attract new users but that is a risky and expensive strategy and in the long run they can end up being a new Yahoo were Jack Dorsey will end up just like Merissa Mayer.

Twitter is expected to report earnings on 26 April after the bell, and the report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending March 2016. EPS is expected to come in at $-0,13 which is worse than last quarter at $-0,2.

It`s time to jump around and make a change.

 

skjold5

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | January 28, 2015 · 12:33 pm

Tech Rally today

Nasdaq had a bad day yesterday and slid -1,89%, but the major index is the only one that is in positive territory for the year. One of the biggest losers on Nasdaq yesterday was Microsoft. Down -9,25%.

Microsoft reported earnings of 72 cents per share on $26,47 billion in revenue for the second fiscal quarter, but the revenue was better than analysts estimations. The negative is the weaker than expected Windows non-Pro revenues which is down -13% YoY, and the commercial license declined 2%.

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(Picture: Microsoft down -9,25%)

CEO Satya Nadella said it doesn`t take much longer time to successfully transition from a licensing sales focused firm into a software as a service firm. Microsoft`s cloud business doubled and came in on $5,5 billion i sales. Xbox sales fell to 6,6 million units (from 7,4 million) in sales.

Caterpillar was another big company that slid yesterday. Down -7,18%. The company delivered a shockingly weak outlook for this year and investors got scared. It seems like Caterpillar is in big trouble.

Analysts expected earnings of $1,55 a share but it fell about 20%, landing on $1,23 a share. Its Q4 operating profit slumped 27% YoY. Lower oil prices is negative for their construction business. Caterpillar lowered its 2015 sales expectations for mining and construction equipment, and that was not music in investors ears.

Good news is coming later today. First of all; Alibaba is coming out with the second report as a public company. The Chinese e-commerce giant is expected to post a quarter of tremendous growth. EPS is expected to grow 39% YoY! It`s also expected a massive 48% improvement in YoY revenue!

It is expected to see Tmall and Taobao to deliver strong revenue momentum on the back of higher e-commerce penetration in China. Alibaba has an ongoing international expansion and the stock is up 3,3% in three months.

ATH is 119,15 which is from 10 November last year. The stock was down -1,01% yesterday, and there are some short interest in the stock right now. The opening trade is now $102,94. 52-week low is registered as $82,81. Outstanding shares are 2,465,006,000. The stock is priced richly with Alibaba`s market cap now over $250 billion, but the market is looking for huge surging numbers which could validate the company`S valuation.

Yahoo! Is set for a rally today, trading up about 8% AHT. The company is spinning off Yahoo`s $39 billion stake in Alibaba Group Holding. The anticipated decision announced yesterday will enable Yahoo to avoid paying billions of dollars in future taxes.

A newly formed entity called SpinCo will inherit ownership of the company`s 384 million shares in China`s Alibaba Group Holding when the tax-free spinoff is completed toward the end 2015. Owner of Yahoo shares will receive stocks in SpinCo, which is designed as an investment company.

The old giant is struggling to grow and the firm earned $166 million, or 17 cents per share. Down -52% from the same periode last year. Yahoo`s revenue dipped 1% to $1,25 billion, and investments in Alibaba and Yahoo Japan is the main reason Yahoo`s stock has more than trippled last years.

They have a 36 stake in Yahoo Japan, worth about $7 billion. The Alibaba investment is worth far more than their own online services, and their competitors like Facebook and Google have grabbed a big piece of the digital marketing budget.

Have a closer look at Apple today. The stock is also set for a rally. Up about 7% ATH. Revenue rose to $74,6 billion from $57,6 billion a year earlier. Profit of $18 billion is the biggest ever! Apple reported net profit of $18,02 billion, or $3,06 per diluted share, compared to $13,07 billion, or $2,07 per share a year earlier. Apple faced a clear headwind from a strong dollar.

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | October 1, 2014 · 2:12 pm

Yahoo! retirees

If I asked you what Google is, you would say; a search engine. If I asked you about Apple, Twitter or Facebook, I assume you know what it is. But what if I ask you what Yahoo! Is? What is it? A site with different things?

Yahoo logo

You know what ebay is, and you know what PayPal is, and after years saying they`re better together, they are splitting up. I think that is a smart thing to do, and people shouldn`t worry, because both companies have so far been a part of people`s life since they`re first day.

Elon Musk sold PayPal to eBay in 2003 and it was a great match. It became easy for people to process payments for eBay sales. This split is all about growth. You can imagine what PayPal can do in the digital wallet business if they don`t have to worry about eBay?

Right now you feel like you must have a PayPal account to shop on eBay, but you don`t. And here is the key. Later on this month, Apple will launch the new Apple Pay, and that will crash with eBay and PayPal`s mirrage. The mirrage is now over, and it`s a tricky divorce.

Now, people can pay a dozen different ways, like Apple Pay, Bitcoin or PayPal and so on. That`s fair. It`s up to the people to make a choice. It depends on where they have an account. I think many will sign up for the new Apple Pay system. They will revolutionize the digital business, and probably have a monopoly in the market, but what about Yahoo? What are they doing? What is it?

Yahoo! is not expanding. They are going in the opposite direction. They closed Yahoo Education yesterday, because, as they say, it is outside of their core experience. In addition; Users`needs are already well served by alternative online resources.

They will also shut down the Qwiki app, which automatically created short movies based on events from a user`s camera roll. They will shut down the app on November 1, but the Qwiki team will continue to innovate on a new digital media experience for Yahoo users.

Yahoo started about twenty years ago as a directory of websites that helped users explore the internet. They are still committed to connecting users with the information they`re passionate about, and their business has evolved and at the end of the year (December 31, 2014), they will retire the Yahoo Directory.

Yahoo still owns about 16% of Alibaba and Yahoo`s market cap is $40,3 billion, but the value can approach about $46 bilion. Their core business are generating only about $700 million.

The cash made by the Alibaba IPO are more worth than the company`s current market capitalization, and the company could be fairly priced with a multiplier of only 5.

The stock can move from here, and the pressure to merge with AOL has pumped the stock. I don`t think people will jump into this stock before they know more about what direction it will move. Yahoo moved up +0,57% yesterday. Price; $40,75.

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | September 16, 2014 · 1:56 pm

Will Alibaba raise its IPO price?

The demand for Alibaba IPO shares is going wild! So wild that they have decided to raise its IPO price range from $66 to $68. Alibaba is a step closer to its IPO as much as $21,8 billion. Yahoo! Inc and other backers plan to offer as much as 320,1 million shares.

alibaba logo

Alibaba`s Jack Ma have been on a roadshow, and told the investors that they will not seek too high a valuation, and they are offering the shares at a price-to-earnings multiple that`s below what other public traded Chinese Internet peers fetch.

Alibaba`s market value could be as high as $167,6 billion. China`s biggest search engine trades about 34 times estimates of this year`s earning. Tencent Holdings Ltd trades at 37 times, while Amazon trades to 133 times forecast 2014 earnings.

The average for similar Chinese Internet e-commerce companies trade at 43 times their earnings.

Alibaba will try to be a global company and plans to expand its business in U.S and Europe in addition to Asia. Ma said they will try to avoid a repeat of Alibaba.com`s failure which plummeted below its IPO price right after listing and ended up delisting the company in 2012.

Jack Ma listed the company at the peak of the Hang Seng in 2007 and delisted it at the bottom during the financial crises in 2008. The S&P traded at about 30 times earnings in 2000, but now it is trading at 18. The Alibaba IPO in 2007 was 257 times oversubscribed and we won`t see that kind again.

Jack Ma and Alibaba has been on the road for two weeks trying to meet investors and speak with them. They said they plan to set a final price for the shares on Sept 18. Trading start the day after, on friday 19.

Nasdaq rose to its highest since March 2000 this month. Is this the right timing for Alibaba?

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | May 20, 2014 · 2:01 pm

Mobile ad opportunity

Vodafone`s (VOD) FY EBITDA dropped 5,4%. Their revenue also slipped 1,9% to £43,6 billion. Net profit attributable to shareholders soared to £59,25 billion from £413 million in 2013, boosted by the sale of their 45% stake in Verizone Wireless for $130 billion.

Vodafone logo

Organic service revenue declined 3,8% in Q4. Adjusted operating profit dropped 37% to £7,67 billion, mainly due to a much lower contribution from Verizone Wireless before it was sold. Vodafone expects FY 2015 EBITDA to drop to £11,5 billion.

CEO Vittorio Colao say Vodafone`s emerging markets businesses have performed strongly. In Europe, the company continues to face competitive. Vodafone declared a final dividend of 7,47 pence a share, giving total dividends of 11 pence, up 8%.

Vodafone is the world`s second-largest mobile network operator and the Pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 Indes slipped today as Vodafone fell 4% after reporting huge impairment costs. Vodafone was the biggest faller on the FTSEurofirst 300 today.

The underlying profit continuing to move in the wrong direction and it seems to be very expensive to be in this competitive markets. AT&T bought Direct-TV to diversify and continue to grow its business.

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This makes AT&T strong, and Verizone, Sprint and T-Mobile should watch out, as AT&T has more leverage right now. Direct TV`s coverage map can reach 99% of households. Their mentions that cost savings will exceed $1,6 billion.

AT&T now have the ability to price itself lower than other competitors. AT&T`s CEO belive the deal will go through regulators in light of recent trends in telecom and communications. AT&T bought out Direct TV for $95 per share ($48,5 billion).

It`s probably better to be on the other side. Facebook are earning money on their direct ad mobile advertising. Now, Yahoo have the ability to do the same as Facebook. Yahoo is down -16,2% so far in 2014.

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The Alibaba IPO can give Yahoo a huge opportunity as they have a potential in Yahoo`s mobile advertising. They can acquire mobile advertising firms like Millennial Media or AOL. This is what made Facebook a big growth company.

Yahoo have Yahoo Weather, Yahoo Finance and Tumblr. They have about 360 million global users and this amount of users can make Yahoo grow with a new mobile ad platform. Yahoo have the ability to buy Millennial Media cheap.

Anyway; Yahoo`s stake in Alibaba will give them a lot of cash, and you all know that Cash is King! Money is just a piece of paper. It ain`t worth something. Just the thing you can buy with the cash. So what is money? It`s just tools, and you need the tools to reach your goals.

Yahoo have a huge opportunity during the Alibaba IPO, and they can be a great growth company if they are doing the right things now. Yahoo have been on the market for a long time, and money will not be the biggest problem for them now. They need a great idea. Mobile ads can be one of them.

Read my article about Ymobile on March 28, 2014.

Reports today:
08:30 a.m EST FOMC Member Plosser speaks
08:30 a.m EST FOMC Member Dudley speaks

 
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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