Tag Archives: Janet Yellen

by | February 4, 2014 · 2:18 pm

The new wallets

Apple:

Yes, the new wallets is here. Fact is that the new wallets have been on the market for many years now. Some people expected to see a Near Field Communication chip for mobile payments when Apple launched the new Iphone 5 a couple of year ago, but ended up disappointed.

 

Smartphones are predicted to be the new wallets and forecast for mobile payments in 2014 is $7,5B. In 2013 it was $2,1B, and $0,6B in 2012. If this is taking off we can see mobile payments of $70B in 2016. Mobile payments in China have doubled in 2013 and ended up to 218,6 Billion Yuan.

 

The most critical element in this business is the security, but Apple seems to have the right solution for all the customers waiting to pay by smartphones. Apple signed a new patent (#20140019367) on January 16.

 

What about their competitors like Visa, Mastercard, Paypal and others? They should do something before it is too late. Once Apple start with their new mobile payment solution, the card users will slowly disappear. This threath is too big to ignore I think.

 

Stocks & Commodities:

Petrobras (PBR) plummeted 5,8% yesterday and that is an eight year low level, now trading at 13.85 Brazilian reais ($5.69). This is the lowest since july 29, 2005. The overall markets plummeted yesterday, like they historically do when a new Fed chairman comes in, but Twitter went up +1,16%. What is going on here? Any report surprise?

 

Gold is not taking off despite the bearish markets we see now. Right now the gold is trading at $1.252.80, down -0,52%. Silver is also down today, trading at $19.35, down -0,30%. Copper is trading at $319.85, up today +0,47%.

 

Reports:

10:00:00 Factory Orders Forecast: -1,90% Previous: 1,80%
10:00:00 Economic Optimism Forecast: 46,1 Previous: 45,2

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | January 28, 2014 · 2:14 pm

BIG Apple

The stock markets are sliding down but this is not the end of the world. There ain`t no doubt; the bear is here! Yesterday Nasdaq tumbled -1,08%, while Apple plummeted -7,7% in after hour trading. Dow slid -0,3%.

This is how it probably will be in the stock market now. Up and down, or what we call a volatile market. That`s why it is so important to know about stock picking. How to pick the right stocks, and that`s why I wrote about it last week.

In my opinion; U.S stocks is not cheap, so it is important to know what to do before any decision is made. The European stocks is twice as cheap as the U.S stocks. How is it going with Apple?

Apple reports yesterday:

iphone sales is $32,5B (+6% vs 17% in FQ4).

ipad sales is $11,5B (+7% vs -13%).

Mac sales is $6,4B (+16% vs -15%).

iTunes/software/services revenue is 4,4B (+19%).

iPod sales is only $973M (-55%).

78% of Apple`s cash/investment balance ($159B) is offshore. The iPhone sales is up +40% in Japan. Sales in China is up 20%. Europe is flat, while Americas sales is only +1%. Tim Cook didn`t say much about buybacks in face of Carl Icahn`s ongoing campaign. $7,8B was returned via dividends/buybacks. Apple need to release something new now, and I am not talking about a bigger screen or a different color. I am talking about innovation. Come On Apple: “think different”.

Revenue: $57,59B

FQ1 EPS: $14,50

Expects FQ2 revenue of $42 – $44B.

How is the inflation? It is rising, but it is difficult to see it. Some people expect inflation and some expect deflation. Both camps see increase in general prices like visible money and credit prices. Hyperinflation is expected, but deflation is probably the biggest problem in the future in the long run. I think Janet Yellen will push the QE-button if the deflation ghost is here. As you can see; despite the QE programs, the growth is so far very slow.

If the Fed starts its tapering, how will that affects the emerging markets? Half of the global GDP comes from the emerging markets, and that moves the other markets in the rest of the world.

It seems like money is on the way back to emerging markets as the Fed announces their tapering. Let`s wait for the FOMC statements later on this week.

Reports today: Core DurableGoods at 8:30am, S&P/CS Composite at 9:00am, CB Consumer Confidence at 10:00am.

Apple

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication

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by | January 8, 2014 · 11:48 am

Health-care bull

The stock indices are up and the fear goes down. Vix is down 4,7%, trading at 12,92. People are bullish and now it is time for the companies to deliver. The sentiment is still very high, so it will be interesting to see the companies economical numbers and their earnings growth.

2013 was an extremely good year in the stock market, but I don`t think 2014 is going to be the same. We did not see a big correction last year. It all went up. But this year will probably be different. It is headed for some corrections and this year will be more volatile than last year.

Three rounds of QE have helped the indices to increase and reach a new all time high. The S&P 500 is up 173% from its twelve-year low in 2009. Janet Yellen will replace Ben Bernanke as a FED chairman on Jan 31. Janet Yellen won Senate confirmation (56-26 votes) to become the 15th chairman of the FED.

The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index is up 1,4%. Health-care shares in the S&P 500 is up 0,3% in 2014, and this is the most among the ten main industries. Investors are waiting for the Fed minutes today, and news about the job report on friday. This is important news that can drive the market.

Today, we will know what outgoing Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke really want to do with the gradual tapering of $10 billion a month. Today`s minutes will tell us that this was a narrower view to some few FOMC members or not.

Follow the oil price now. This is a risky bet. The oil price can plunge and Opec can face huge problems. If this is the scenario, I think it will be very good news for the U.S consumers. Who want cheaper gasoline?

Middle East is the key and U.S Secretary of State John Kerry are working with difficult cases like Shia-dominated government in Baghdad, the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS), Al Qaeda’s fast-growing franchise operating in Syria, Sunni groups marginalized by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki’s authoritarian policies, Egypt, Tunisia and energy producers like Nigeria, Venezuela and Russia.

I mention this because it all affects the oil price, and what`s happend in this areas can change the game very fast. This is a big risk in 2014. So, the happenings can drive the oil prices up or down. It depends on whats happening?

The unemployment data from EU yesterday was disappointing. In Italy the unemployment rate is at the all-time high of 12,6% (for November), and for the broader EU unemployment, the rate is now at 12,1%. Just below its record 12,2%. The unemployment rate is U.S is just above 7%.

It looked like we had a game changer in November – December last year, but take a look at the chart below. CRB have turned around and are still declining. It is below 50 MA and I will wait for this to turn up again.

New today: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 8:15am, Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30am, 10 Year Note Auction at 1:01pm, FOMC Meeting Minutes at 2:00pm.

CRB 07012014

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | November 25, 2013 · 2:06 pm

Consumer Confidence is declining

It is thanksgiving week and this week is usually a low volume week. Traders are off enjoying the extended holiday, and if something moves, it will move monday and Tuesday. Since we are at the all time high, maybe some people are thinking profit taking?

Consumer confidence is declining. This gives us an idea about the consumer spending in the U.S economy. If people don`t feel great about their own economy, they will not spend so much money. It is just that simple.

I wrote about Apple and their new products and they really need to do it well in Q4. If people don`t have money to spend, they will not buy any Apple products like phones, tablets or other innovative products. They will rather keep what they have and cut back on their discretionary spending.

If people don`t spend money this holiday season, companies will not earn so much money and the stock prices will not go up. Nor the GDP (gross domestic product) will go up.

What really drives the U.S economy are suggesting there isn`t much light at the end of the tunnel. What about the so-called economic recovery we have seen since the financial crises? Does it work?

Gold is trading at $1231,50. Down -1,01%. As long as the inflation is low, the gold will continue to decline. People expect hyper inflation, but Janet Yellen are fighting against deflation. News today: Pending Home Sales at 10:00am.

 um-consumer-sentiment-through-november-2013

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | November 4, 2013 · 2:00 pm

Russell 2000 vs S&P 500

Japan`s Nikkei fell on friday, dragged down by Sony Corp, Nitto Denko Corp (Apple Inc supplier) and NTT Data Corp. All of them lowered their earnings guidance. Sony had a huge drop last week. European shares rise on hopes of dovish signals from ECB.

The ECB is expected to set a more dovish tone at its policy meeting on Thursday. Many people are scared because we are at an all time high and wonder where to go now. Credit Suisse said it believed equity markets would be significantly higher in 6 and 12 months’ time.

Gold are trading at $1316,70, and it is still above the support at $1300. This presious metal seems to go sideways for a while now. VIX is still low and stock market also seems to trade sideways, but I will take a closer look at it this week.

Janet Yellen wants the FED to work strenuously (like outgoing chair Ben Bernanke) to buy up bonds. She want the money to float into the private market and to increase theoretically available credit. In other words: she wants the money to be “loose”.

So far, this strategy have never been solving any recession problems. I don`t think FED have even one example in the the FED`s 100 year of history where loose money has borne along an economic recovery. She stands for something that have never worked.

The small cap stocks is the sweet spot I am talking about today. The best measure of small caps is the Russell 2000, and it has outperformed the S&P 500 by 2 to 1 over the last three months.

The Russell 2000 is up an incredible 27% over the last 10 months, while the S&P 500 is up “only” 19%. Is the small cap ride over now? Not by a long shot. And remember: 40 small cap stocks will rise 100% today! Take a look at the chart below. I have typed in the Russell 2000 compared to S&P 500.

RUT and SPX

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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