Tag Archives: Consumer spending

Consumer Spending in November and December could grow as much as 11,5% and hit an all-time high

The times we are living in are far from «normal.» But we cannot blame an invisible virus for all that is happening right now. The question for retailers now is how this holiday season will look like?

Online spending on Black Friday 2021 decreased for the first time ever. According to Adobe Analytics, online shoppers spent a total of $8,9 billion, and that is down a little bit from last year’s $9 billion.

It can be many reasons for the dip, but Adobe believes it can be caused by an uptick in early spending, as some stores started sales and promotions as early as October. Shoppers are also being strategic in their gift shopping, buying much earlier in the season and being flexible about when they shop to make sure they get the best deals.

Photo by Max Fischer on Pexels.com

Black Friday traffic in stores also dropped -28,3% from pre-pandemic levels. Cyber Monday did also have a bad day and dropped for the first time ever. Cyber Monday online sales drop -1,4% from last year to $10,7 billion.

Adobe expects the entire holiday season will see record-breaking e-commerce activity, as shoppers spread out their dollars over more days. Adobe anticipates digital sales from November 1st, to December 31st will hit $207 billion which would represent record gains of 10%.

FedEx forecasts Monday will be one of the highest volume e-commerce days of the 2021 holiday season as it prepares to deliver an estimated 100 million more packages than it did from Black Friday to Christmas in 2019.

According to National Retail Federation, the holiday season will be fine. Spending in November and December could grow as much as 11,5% compared with the same period a year ago. This is much higher than many retail analysts themselves had predicted.

Sales in November and December can hit an all-time high of between $834,4 billion and $859 billion. In other words; we`re on the path for a record holiday season. Omicron can destroy the holiday season, but it can also help.

Instead of taking a trip by plane to other places, consumers will spend their money on Target or Macy`s. That will boost consumer demand, helped by higher wages and inflation. A lockdown will increase online sales and put more pressure on FedEx. People want packages no matter what.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shinybull.com. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; however, neither Shinybull.com nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. Shinybull.com and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Consumer Spending

«There is only one side to the market.

Not the bull side or the bear side, but the RIGHT side».

Jesse Livermore

Another record high for the DOW yesterday, and Nasdaq topped 4,000 for the first time in 13 years.

Nasdaq closed at 3,994,573. Earlier it touched an intraday high at 4,007,093. The Dow ended at 16,072,54. S&P 500 dipped 2,28% and closed at 1,802,48.

It was not a good day for social media stocks yesterday. Twitter was down 4,7% and are now trading at $39,06. Facebook is down 3,1% and are breaking down from a technical support at $45,80. Facebook is now trading at $44,82. Yelp slid 6,7% and are now trading at $58,20.

Many investors are scared and expect a pullback, but the stock market can still go higher. The Dow has increased seven weeks in a row now, and S&P 500 is up 26,4% for the year. Investors continue to turn their back on gold and they expect the gold price to decline to $1,180 and that is its three year low.

Investors follow U.S data reports closely to gauge if they will strengthen or weaken the case for the Fed to start tapering in December. Gold prices are sliding down on concerns the Fed would start tapering its 85 billion a month asset-purchase program in December. So do the Silver prices, but Copper is up 1,33% on the week.

The precious metal turned bearish after the Fed`s minutes meeting. Fed said they will start tapering if the economy continues to improve as expected. Consumer confidence will be an important number to follow today. A level below 70 starts to be critical.

It is a shopping week now. Black Friday is the friday following Thanksgiving Day in the United States and this is usually the beginning of the Christmas shopping season. Shops opens earlier than scheduled, and this has been the busiest shopping day of the year since 2005.

Consumer confidence fell to 72,0 in November and that is its lowest since December 2011. The economists expected 74,5 this month so this was a surprise for them all. Forecast for the consumer confidence later today is 72,2 (previous 71,2). I will follow this later today (10.00am EST).

News today: Building permits and housing starts at 8.30am, CB Consumer confidence at 10.00am.

i_love_shopping

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Consumer Confidence is declining

It is thanksgiving week and this week is usually a low volume week. Traders are off enjoying the extended holiday, and if something moves, it will move monday and Tuesday. Since we are at the all time high, maybe some people are thinking profit taking?

Consumer confidence is declining. This gives us an idea about the consumer spending in the U.S economy. If people don`t feel great about their own economy, they will not spend so much money. It is just that simple.

I wrote about Apple and their new products and they really need to do it well in Q4. If people don`t have money to spend, they will not buy any Apple products like phones, tablets or other innovative products. They will rather keep what they have and cut back on their discretionary spending.

If people don`t spend money this holiday season, companies will not earn so much money and the stock prices will not go up. Nor the GDP (gross domestic product) will go up.

What really drives the U.S economy are suggesting there isn`t much light at the end of the tunnel. What about the so-called economic recovery we have seen since the financial crises? Does it work?

Gold is trading at $1231,50. Down -1,01%. As long as the inflation is low, the gold will continue to decline. People expect hyper inflation, but Janet Yellen are fighting against deflation. News today: Pending Home Sales at 10:00am.

 um-consumer-sentiment-through-november-2013

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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