Tag Archives: Great Depression

A “Great Reset” of Capitalism

The world economy is in bad shape and it can be worse. Professor Roubini predict a Great depression, not only for 2020, but for the decade of the 2020`s. What does this crisis we`re in really mean? For someone out there it means a great opportunity. It means a great reset.

«The Great Reset» will be the theme of a unique twin summit to be convened by the World Economic Forum in January 2021. In-person and virtual dialogues will address the need for a more fair, sustainable and resilient future, and a new social contract centred on human dignity, social justice and where societal progress does not fall behind economic development.

Founder and Executive Chairman of WEF, Klaus Schwab wrote in his article called «The time for a great reset» that there is a good reason to worry: a sharp economic downturn has already begun, and we could be facing the worst depression since the 1930`s.

But, while this outcome is likely, it is not unavoidable.

Furthermore, Claus wrote this; to achieve a better outcome, the world must act jointly and swiftly to rewamp all aspects of our societies and economies, from education to social contracts and working conditions.

Every country, from the United States to China, must participate, and every industry, from oil and gas to tech, must be transformed. In short, we need a «Great Reset» of capitalism.

The crisis we`re in, together with COVID-19, will deepen and leave the world even less sustainable, less equal, and more fragile. Incremental measures and ad hoc fixes will not suffice to prevent this scenario. We must build entirely new foundations for our economic and social systems.

Managing Director at IMF, Kristalina Georgieva also had the headline «The Great Reset» a few weeks ago. My thanks to His Royal Highness the Prince of Wales and th Professor Schwab for bringing us together, she wrote in the opening.

Furthermore, she wrote this in her article: Now is the time to think of what history would say about this crisis. And now is the time for all of us to define our own role. Will historians look back and say this was the moment of a Great Reversal? Today, we see very worrying signs.

One hundred and seventy countries are going to finish this year with a smaller economy than at the start of the year, and we already project that there will be more debt, bigger deficits, and more unemployment. And there is a very high risk of more inequality and more poverty.

Unless we act.

So, what would it take for historians to look back at this crisis as the moment of Great Reset?

From the persepective of the IMF, we have seen a massive injection of fiscal stimulus to help countries deal with this crisis, and to shift gears for growth to return. It is of paramount important that this growth should lead to a greener, smarter, fairer world in the future, Kristalina Georgieva wrote.

IMF and WEF see some tremendous opportunities. Heh… It seems like a New World Order is on the way…..

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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The US unemployment go straight up while the pending home sales go straight down

China`s growth plummeted -6,8 YoY in Q1. The growth in the U.S is still on the right side, coming in at 0,3 percent YoY in Q1. But if you look at the quarter, the growth in China is down -9,8 percent, while the U.S growth is down -4,8 percent.

The annulized 4,8 percent drop in Q1 of 2020 markes the end of the longest period of expansion in America`s history. The drop is the steepest pace of contraction in GDP since the last quarter of 2008 (financial crisis).

The Covid-19 pandemic forced several states to impose lockdown measures in mid-March and that pushed millions of people out of work. The unemployment rate go straight up while the pending home sales go straight down.

Contracts to buy previously owned homes in the US dropped 16,3 percent YoY earlier in March this year, and that is the biggest annual decline since April 2011, amid the Covid-19 crisis. On a monthly basis, pending home sales went down 20,8 percent, which is the largest drop since May 2010.

Unfortunately, it seems like this is just the beginning.

The next quarter can be very ugly, while the unemployment rate can go straight up to Great Depression levels. The growth in the US can plunge more than 30 percent. If that is happening, what do you thing will happen to the pending home sales?

The numbers are expected to get even worse in April as the government surveyed businesses and housholds for the report in mid-March, before majority of people was under some form of a lockdown.

Trump`s economic adviser Kevin Hassett said unemployment in the US can soar to 17 percent. In March the unemployment rate was 4,4 percent in the US.

During the financial crisis, the US lost about 9 million jobs, but now the US is losing that many jobs about every 10 days, Hassett told ABC on Sunday.

This is sad, because all the jobs created since the Great Recession (2008) have been wiped out. So far, we are talking about 26 million and it can be worse. Hassett told ABC the unemployment will surge to levels not seen since the Grat Depression (1929).

During the Great Depression, about 15 million jobs were lost.

So, we know what`s coming. People without job and money will not buy a house.

Pending home contracts generally are seen as a forward-looking indicator of the health of the housing market because they become sales one to two months later. This summer holiday will be very special.

To contact the author of this story: Ket Garden at post@shinybull.com

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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