Tag Archives: GDP

by | January 28, 2026 · 6:23 am

This Is Not a Global Recovery. It’s an American One

When we look at GDP growth, one thing becomes very clear: the United States is in a league of its own. With growth at 4.4 percent, the U.S. economy is running far ahead of other major economies.

India comes in second — but at less than half the U.S. rate. China, once the global engine of growth, is now barely above one percent. Europe paints a much weaker picture: the euro area, France, and the UK are hovering near stagnation. Italy does a bit better, but still far behind the U.S.

The takeaway is simple: global growth is no longer evenly distributed. The world is increasingly dependent on one dominant economic engine — the United States.

Trumponomics, Taxes, and Tariffs

This dominance is not accidental. Trumponomics — including tax cuts, deregulation, and strategic trade measures — has been designed to strengthen domestic growth. Lower taxes have incentivized investment, increased consumption, and created a multiplier effect across multiple sectors. Simply put: lower taxes mean more growth.

Tariffs have also contributed, protecting key industries and encouraging reshoring. While not the main driver of GDP growth, they amplify the effect of pro-growth policies, keeping production and capital inside the United States.

Crypto and Blockchain: America’s Catalyst

Digital infrastructure, crypto, and blockchain have emerged as powerful catalysts for U.S. economic dominance. While crypto-related activity still represents only a small fraction of U.S. GDP today, it facilitates faster capital flows, scalable services, and innovative financial systems.

Blockchain doesn’t drive the economy on its own — but it reinforces American economic advantage and positions the U.S. to maintain its lead as digital systems expand.

Blockchains are the future, not just for finance, but for the infrastructure of value itself. And America is at the forefront.

Innovation vs. Bureaucracy

A key driver behind continued U.S. economic growth is innovation—particularly in advanced manufacturing and energy technology. Companies like Tesla, led by Elon Musk, have played a pioneering role by pushing battery technology to a new level, giving the U.S. a clear competitive advantage in electric vehicles and energy storage.

In contrast, Europe—and Germany in particular—has been slowed by regulatory complexity and bureaucratic inertia. While innovation in the U.S. is often enabled by speed, scale, and risk-taking, European industry must navigate dense layers of regulation, approval processes, and political compromise.

For Germany, whose economy is deeply tied to the automotive sector, this loss of momentum has broader consequences. And as Germany remains the economic locomotive of the EU, the effects of slower innovation are amplified across Europe—raising the question of whether regulation has begun to outweigh competitiveness.

One Engine, Many Passengers

Put it all together: Trumponomics, smart policy, tariffs, and innovative digital infrastructure. The result? America continues to dominate while Europe struggles with stagnation, and China slows. Emerging markets chase momentum.

Growth today in the United States comes not from soil or oil alone, but from systems designed to turn value into profit. Lower taxes, strategic policy, and innovation create a self-reinforcing cycle — one that keeps the U.S. in the driver’s seat.

Oil once defined power. Today, code, capital, and blockchain define it. And in that world, the United States still owns the refinery.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shinybull.com. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; however, neither Shinybull.com nor the author can guarantee the accuracy of this information. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. Shinybull.com and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | September 27, 2024 · 6:00 am

The U.S. economy is in a relatively healthy state in 2024

Nearly everybody is talking about a recession. Everything will collapse they say. Let me tell you what recession is. It is a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.

The U.S. economy is far from a recession. Not even near.

The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 3,0% in the second quarter of 2024. This robust growth exceeded earlier estimates of around 2,4%. The key drivers behind this stronger-than-expected growth were increases in consumer spending, particularly on durable goods, and services, and business investments in equipment, and structures. Additionally, private inventory investment provided a significant boost to GDP.

While the growth is positive, it`s not without some areas of weakness. This 3,0% growth signals resilience in the U.S. economy despite challenges such as elevated interest rates, and inflation, which have been moderating but still present pressures on households purchasing power. Residential fixed investment, which includes housing construction, continued to decline.

The growth in Q2 reflects a strong performance compared to previous quarters, suggesting that the U.S. economy is in a relatively healthy state in 2024. So, while growth is solid, there are still headwinds related to inflation and specific sectors of the economy like housing.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shinybull.com. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; however, neither Shinybull.com nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. Shinybull.com and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | September 26, 2024 · 6:06 am

Productivity isn`t everything, but in the long run it is almost everything

I want to follow up my article from yesterday. It`s about Germany which has a huge problem with GDP at -0,1. Aging population. Lack of innovation, investments, R&D, and growth. But Germany is not the only country with problems like that.

Many countries in the world have the same problems. But there is a great solution to this problem, and Paul Krugman wrote about it in his book, «The Age of Diminished Expectations.» He said; «Productivity isn`t everything, but in the long run it is almost everything.»

Productivity is a foundation of prosperity, and the only way a country can raise its standard of living sustainably is to produce more with existing or fewer resources. You cannot do that without improving productivity. It`s that simple, Gita Bhatt wrote in an article at IMF.

We know that productivity must play a more important role in driving sustained growth as our societies age. But there`s no consensus on how to reverse the broad slowdown in productivity growth seen across almost all countries over the past 20 years.

Especially vexing is the sluggish growth of what economists call total factor productivity. A way of measuring how efficiently businesses turn capital and labor into output. The part that basically captures innovation and technology.

Slower gains in total factor productivity account for more than half the deceleration in economic growth since the global financial crisis, IMF-analysis shows. Another decade of weak productivity growth could seriously erode living standards and threaten financial and social stability.

Small companies can drive productivity gains, writes the University of Chicago`s Ufuk Akcigit. He shows how small firms are more innovative relative to their size, suggesting that they use R&D resources more efficiently.

As companies grow and dominate their markets, they often shift to protecting their market position, rather than fostering innovation, he said.

Policies matter too. Measures should encourage more effective reallocation of resources away from low-productivity firms and support smaller businesses and start-ups. Not just large incumbents. This could include targeted tax credits, grants for early-stage innovation, workforce retraining, and policies that encourage competition and reduce barriers to entry for new players.

Understanding productivity growth more fully is crucial because it plays such an outsize role in economic growth, which, as Daniel Susskind of King`s College London writes; also demands a renewed approach to help improve people`s lives.

Ultimately, as Nobel laureate Edmund Phelps writes; a productive society should allow people to enjoy «mass flourishing» from the grassroots up.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shinybull.com. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; however, neither Shinybull.com nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. Shinybull.com and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | September 25, 2024 · 10:50 am

Germany enjoyed the so-called «Wirtschaftswunder,» (economic miracle) but that has come to an end

For decades, Germany was synonymous with economic strength. Ever since World War II, it enjoyed the so-called «Wirtschaftswunder,» or economic miracle that followed the postwar recovery, which blessed Germany with almost four decades of high growth.

High growth thanks to German engineering, and manufacturing industries. The economic growth eventually slowed down, but Germany had established itself as the industrial heart of Europe, fueled by exports of products with large margins like cars machinery, and chemicals.

Companies like Volkswagen, BMW, Siemens, and BASF became global leaders with German products seen as pinnacles of quality and reliability. As a result of all that, people in Germany enjoyed high salaries, and high quality of life.

Their economic model was built on a few key pillars; strong manufacturing base. A highly skilled workforce, commitment to quality, and very strong exports. But this has come to an end. Last year, Germany was the only G-7 economy to shrink. It`s also the group`s slowest-growing economy with a growth to GDP at -0.1%.

It goes up and down. Down -0,5, up 0,1, down, 0,1, up 0,2, down -0,4, up 0,2, and then down again to -0,1.

Picture: Old economy vs New economies

Germany, long considered the economic engine of Europe, is currently facing significant challenges, leading to concerns that its economy may be stalling or «broken.» What in the world is happening in Germany, and what are the key factors that are affecting their economy right now?

It`s an energy crisis. Germany was dependent on Russian Gas. Germany relied heavily on Russian natural gas before the war in Ukraine. The subsequent sanctions and supply disruptions have led to a severe energy crisis, pushing up prices and harming energy-intensive industries like chemicals, manufacturing, and heavy machinery.

They also have a green transition challenge. Germany is trying to transition to renewable energy, but the shift away from nuclear and coal has left the country vulnerable during this energy crunch. This has increased costs for businesses and households, causing slower growth.

Germany`s economy is heavily reliant on exports, especially in industries like automotive and machinery. Global demand has softened, and supply chain disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic continue to affect production.

The German auto industry, in particular, has been slow to transition to electric vehicles compared to competitors like Tesla, and Chinese manufacturers. This lag is putting pressure on a key pillar of the country`s economy.

Germany`s economy narrowly avoided recession in early 2023, but growth remains sluggish. High inflation and low consumer spending have contributed to weak economic activity. The combination of rising wages, energy prices, and inflationary pressures has increased production costs, leading to reduced profitability for businesses.

On top of that, you have an aging population. Germany`s population is aging rapidly, and the working-age population is shrinking. This is leading to labor shortages in key sectors and higher social welfare costs, creating long-term economic challenges.

In addition; they have migration struggles. While the country has relied on immigration to fill gaps in the labor market, recent shifts in public sentiment and policy restrictions have made it harder to sustain this approach.

Their biggest companies have been there for about 100 years, but there is a shift in the market. Germany has been criticized for lagging behind in digitalization and innovation, particularly in fields like AI and tech start-ups. This is reducing its competitiveness in the global economy.

Another problem is Germany`s heavily regulated business environment and complex bureaucracy. This can stifle innovation and make it harder for new businesses to scale up.

Like many others, Germany has trade challenges and the global demand is weak. As the global economy faces uncertainty, especially with China`s slowing growth, demand for Germany`s exports has dropped.

Germany`s economic model has long been dependent on strong export markets, so this is a major issue!

At least; EU Tension. Economic divergence within the European Union, especially between northern, and southern European economies, adds another layer of complexity, affecting Germany`s trade relations within the bloc.

It all started in France. Yellow Vest protesters went to the streets for months and years and protested against higher oil prices, electricity bills, and expensive toll stations. Their standard of living was shrinking.

This happened at a time when Donald Trump was cutting taxes and made the best economy in the U.S. ever. People in France asked for a Trump-like figure, but everything has gone straight up since then, and now we see severe problems in Germany and other places.

Picture: Yellow Vest protesters against high oil prices and low standard of living

This is happening at a time were productivity in the U.S. is great. Germany`s productivity is down -0,1%, while the productivity in the U.S. is up 3%. They are the best. They are at the top of the list! Even better than China! And the stock market goes up. Wow!

Germany`s economy is not «broken,» but it is facing severe challenges. Energy costs, inflation, global demand weakness, and structural issues in key industries like manufacturing are causing slower growth.

Long-term concerns like demographic changes and lagging investment in innovation also threaten future competitiveness. While these challenges are significant, Germany has strong economic fundamentals and could recover with strategic reforms and investments.

However, the current climate is tough, and the country is at a critical point in addressing these issues. Germany is in trouble.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shinybull.com. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; however, neither Shinybull.com nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. Shinybull.com and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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by | February 29, 2024 · 10:35 am

The West is declining and a nuclear war with Russia is the end of our civilization

Russia`s President Vladimir Putin gave a speech today. He delivered his Address to the Federal Assembly. The ceremony took place in Gostiny Dvor in Moscow.

«The so-called West, with its colonial practices, and penchant for inciting ethnic conflicts around the world, not only seeks to impede our progress, but also envisions a Russia that is a dependent, declining, and dying space where they can do as they please.

In fact, they want to replicate in Russia what they have done in numerous other countries, including Ukraine: sowing discord in our home, and weakening us from within. But they were wrong, which has become abundantly clear now that they ran up against the firm resolve, and determination of our multi-ethnic people», Putin said in the speech.

«Together, as citizens of Russia, we will stand united in defense of our freedom, and our right to a peaceful, and dignified existence», Putin added.

Furthermore, Putin said; «We were not the ones who started the war in Donbas, but as I have already said many times, we will do everything to put an end to it, eradicate Nazism, and fulfill all the objectives of the special military operation, as well as defend sovereignty, and ensure that our people are safe».

«Here is a good example of their hypocrisy. They have recently made unfounded allegations, in particular against Russia, regarding plans to deploy nuclear weapons in space. Such fake narratives and this story is unequivocally false, are designed to involve us in negotiations on their conditions, which will only benefit the United States,» he said.

«There are reasons to suspect that the current US administration`s professed interest in discussing strategic stability with us is merely demagoguery.

They simply want to show to their citizens, and the world, especially in the lead-up to the presidential election that they continue to rule the world, that they would talk with the Russians when it will benefit them, and that there is nothing to talk about, and they will try to inflict defeat on us otherwise. Business as usual, as they say.»

«But this is unacceptable, of course. Our position is clear: if you want to discuss security and stability issues that are critical for the entire planet, this must be done as a package including, of course, all aspects that have to do with our national interests, and have a direct bearing on the security of our country, the security of Russia,» Putin said.

Putin also talked about a potential nuclear war, which would be the end of our civilization. He also said that the West is declining. This is what he said:

«We are also aware of the Western attempts to draw us into an arms race, thereby exhausting us, mirroring the strategy they successfully employed with the Soviet Union in the 1980s.

Let me remind you that in 1981 – 1988, the Soviet Union`s military spending amounted to 13 percent of GDP.

We need to shore up the forces in the Western strategic theatre in order to counteract the threats posed by NATO’s further eastward expansion, with Sweden, and Finland joining the alliance.

The West has provoked conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and other regions around the world while consistently propagating falsehoods. Now they have the audacity to say that Russia harbors intentions of attacking Europe.

Can you believe it?

We all know that their claims are utterly baseless.

And at the same time, they are selecting targets to strike on our territory, and contemplating the most efficient means of destruction. Now they have started talking about the possibility of deploying NATO military contingents to Ukraine.»

«But we remember what happened to those who sent their contingents to the territory of our country once before. Today, any potential aggressors will face far graver consequences.»

«Everything they are inventing now, spooking the world with the threat of a conflict involving nuclear weapons, which potentially means the end of our civilization. Don`t they realize this?

«Indeed, just like any other ideology promoting racism, national superiority, or exceptionalism, Russophobia is blinding, and stupefying.

The United States and its satellites have, in fact, dismantled the European security system which has created risks for everyone.»

«Clearly, a new equal, and indivisible security framework must be created in Eurasia in the foreseeable future. We are ready for a substantive discussion on this subject with all countries, and associations that may be interested in it.

What Putin said next is very important to understand. He talked about Russia as a sovereign country. That is very different from a Russia controlled by the EU. What Putin talks about is very similar to what President Najib Bukele in El Salvador talks about.

It is their own sovereignty and freedom. Bukele said that globalization in El Salvador is dead. They want to rule their own country and have their own freedom. Out with the globalists, he said.

Putin talks about the same, but when it comes to Russia, he talks about the «balance of Power.» If the EU takes over Russia, it can fall into a gigantic dictatorship, and everyone in Europe will end up like slaves and losers. This is what Putin said in his speech:

«At the same time, I would like to reiterate (I think this is important for everyone) that no enduring international order is possible without a strong, and sovereign Russia.»

«We strive to unite the global majority`s efforts to respond to international challenges, such as the turbulent transformation of the world economy, trade, finance, and technology markets, when former monopolies, and stereotypes associated with them are collapsing.»

Europe has throughout history tried to take control of other countries, and they have earned a lot of money on it. But that era is coming to an end. Now, it is different. Europe is declining, and Putin talked about it in his speech today. He said:

«For example, in 2028, the BRICS countries with account taken of the new members will create about 37 percent of global GDP, while the G7 numbers will fall below 28 percent.

These figures are quite telling because the situation was completely different just 10 or 15 years ago. You have heard me say it publicly before. These are the trends, you see.

Look, the G7 countries’ share in global GDP in terms of PPP stood at 45,7 percent in 1992, while the BRICS countries (this association did not exist in 1992) accounted for only 16,5 percent.

In 2022, though, the G7 accounted for 30.3 percent, while BRICS had 31,5 percent.

By 2028, the percentage will shift even more in favor of BRICS, with 36,6 percent, and the projected figure for the G7 is 27,8 percent.

(Editor: The Group of Seven is an intergovernmental political and economic forum consisting of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States; additionally, the European Union is a “non-enumerated member).

There is no getting away from this objective reality, and it will remain that way no matter what happens next, including even in Ukraine,» Putin said.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shinybull.com. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; however, neither Shinybull.com nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities, or other financial instruments. Shinybull.com and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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