China goes down and Africa up

Chinas GDP is still high, but its falling and it can go below 4%. The Chinese economy grew an annual 6,8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015 which is the weakest since first quarter of 2009. For the full year of 2015, GDP expanded by 6,9 percent which is the weakest growth in 25 years.

China`s GDP annual growth rate came in at 3,80 percent in the fourth quarter of 1990, and peaked at an all-time high of 15,40 percent in the first quarter of 1993. GDP annual growth rate in China averaged 9,88 percent from 1989 until 2015.

 

China

 

Consumer prices in China rose 2,3 percent YoY in February of 2016 which is up from 1,8 percent in January. This is the highest inflation rate since July 2014. Inflation rate in China reached a record low of -2,20 percent in April of 1999, and an all-time high of 28,40 percent in February of 1989. Inflation rate in China averaged 5,51 percent from 1986 until 2016.

The most important components of the CPI basket in China, are Food with a 31,8 percent of total weight and Residence at 17,2 percent. Consumer prices rose 2,3 percent in February this year and that is the highest inflation rate since July 2014, as politically sensitive food prices surged 7,3 percent over the Lunar New Year holiday and cold weather.

Africa is another growth story. A quick look at the chart tell us a new fx bull market is imminent. Rand looks great vs pound.

 

Kenya

 

South Sudan is the youngest nation in the world and they are officially recognised as a country in July 2011. Despite taking about 75 percent of old Sudan`s oil reserves, it is one of the poorest regions in Africa and government revenues are still dependent of foreign aid.

They had massive growth in 2014. South Sudan expanded 15,90 percent in 2014 which is an all-time high, but it`s a young nation and keep in mind that they reached a record low of -46,10 percent in 2012.

Kenya has been experiencing steady growth for some years now. The World Bank predicted a growth rate of 6,6 percent in 2016 and 7 percent next year. How are they doing it? The growth comes from massive investments in infrastructure and jobs, and they are taking steps to improve the business climate, and a boost in exports.

This can be risky.

The threat of terrorist attacks from Al-Shabaab cause security concerns. Kenyas tourism industry is one of the countrys key sectors and Al-Shabaab has a negative impact on that industry. Their manufacturing sector has also been stagnant for some years. In addition, there is a lack of competition and minimal production.

Kenya is still highly dependent on agriculture and the sector made a significant 26 percent of the countrys GDP annually, and another 25 percent indirectly. The sector accounts for 65 percent of Kenyas total export.

Manufacturing is also important for Kenya`s growth. Investment opportunities include manufacturing of fertilizer, agro-processing, machine tools and machinery, garments, and engineering products for both domestic and export markets.

 

sb-wall5

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

Advertisements

1 Comment

Filed under Emerging markets

One response to “China goes down and Africa up

  1. China is so far ahead , that all the countries in Africa and Asia like India need decades to catch up.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s