Category Archives: Stocks

Smartphone prices are dropping

This week is a Smartphone week with the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona. This congress is the industry`s biggest annual trade fair. Everybody at the congress is talking about the smartphones. So, what`s up in this business industry?

Apple

The problem with all the smartphones is like the car industry. Their all look the same, which means it is hard to differentiate themselves from the competitors. The strongest brands in this industry is no doubt Apple and Samsung.

 

It is predicted that the growth in global smart phone shipments will fall sharply in 2014 and keep falling for the next four years. The average price will drop sharply as the demand shifts to China and other developing countries.

 

More low-cost devices are coming out to the market to retail at near $100 or cheaper than that. Those devices has a lack of some of the features of the top models, which is more expensive. It is the low-cost Chinese players with enough technical and design expertise that is now coming to the market and draw down the prices.

 

We are talking about brands like Huawei (the world`s third biggest phone maker), Lenovo, TCL Communications and more unknown brands like Oppo, CorePad and Gionee that is poised to be big known brands in the coming years. All of them coming from the world`s largest phone market.

 

China`s ZTE Corp are searching for tech solutions to reach the $50 price target, but the strong demand is pushing up the cost of the components which is a surprising twist in an industry more familiar with falling material prize as technology evolves.

 

Components like screen display, keyboards and memory are key hardware components wich is important to differentiate them all from the other smartphones. Alcatel`s Onetouch brand owned by TCL launched a new sub-$100 smartphone this week.

 

I don`t think you can expect to see Apple and Samsung selling their smartphones for $100 or lower the coming year. Nope. Forget it.

 

Reports today:

 

  08:30 AM ET Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)
  10:00 AM ET Fed Chair Yellen testifies

 

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Online traffic

Some people do not understand how WhatsApp can be worth $19 billion, but CEO Mark Zuckerberg say it is worth more than that. How is that possible? What do Mr Zuckerberg see that others don`t see?

Facebook whatsapp

The revenue in WhatsApp is $20 million (2013), which means Facebook has paid 950 times the revenue. This means that Facebook is paying $42 per WhatsApp user. The Facebook value per user is $170. Facebook’s revenue per user (ARPU) is $6,73, while WhatsApp generates $1 per user annually after one year free subscription.

 

This deal gives WhatsApp the same valuations as Gap Inc, and half of the value of Twitter Inc. Half-a-billion people are using WhatsApp for messaging and, and the engagement of the app is huge on mobile by far.

 

It seems like Facebook’s goal is to collect as much people as they can on a few mobile and tablet apps. As long as they have billions of people engaged in their apps, they will be attractive to marketers which is paying their wages.

 

WhatsApp have low revenues today, but Mr Zuckerberg say it would be worth more in the future. This is a strategic value. He saw a huge business potential to double its users and its fit with Facebook. In addition; Mr Zuckerberg are seeking more phone companies as partners to connect the people.

 

It sounds like Nokia`s vision: «connecting people». Nokia was the worlds nr.1 mobile company. As you already know, the wind changed, and you know the history of Steve Job`s fantastic company Apple. The world`s biggest company!

 

It`s difficult for some people to see why they should use WhatsApp. There are so many alternatives out there, and they have been there for many years. I personally do not use WhatsApp. I don`t know other people who use it either.

 

I spend many hours on skype every week. Everyone I know from China use skype and its free. WhatsApp is free only the first year, and then it cost $99 cent. Why should people around the world use WhatsApp and pay for it when others like Skype is for free?

 

The trend now is that the mobile operators don`t sell SMS or phone calls anymore. Its free! How do they earn money? They sell online traffic. That`s the new product. Come on Facebook. Come on Mark Zuckerberg; this is not innovation! But if everyone use WhatsApp in the future; I have no choice.

 

Reports today:

 

09:00 AM ET S&P Case Shiller HPI
10:00 AM ET Consumer Confidence

 

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Expensive oil shale revolution

Asian shares fell today and the Japanese yen rose as the growth in Chinese home prices eased for the first time in 14 months. Tokyo`s Nikkei index fell 0,2%. Tokyo stocks are also down, while the activity in its major export is declining.

 

European stocks and the Euro got a boost on Monday as the German carmaker Volkswagen came with a disappointed outlook with limited gains. Right after Viktor Yanukovich was ousted rom the presidency in Ukraine, the country`s dollar bonds skyrocketed, and the hryvnia currency fell.

 

On the commodities front, Brent crude is down -0,15% to $109,68. Gold is up for a third week in a row, to $1,334,10, up +0,79%. Silver is up 0,76%, to $21,98 and Copper is down together with the markets, to 322,00, down -1,23%.

 

Chesapeake Energy (CHK)

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) is pursuing strategic alternatives for its oilfield services division. The Oilfiesld Services generataed revenue of $2,2B last year. The investor Carl Icahn own 10% of the shares in Chesapeake Energy. Rumors say he is seeking a cash bid of up to $40 a share.

 

Rising natural gas prices could help the company to profit off a plan to revive the maligned Haynesville shale play, where it gambled billions of dollars six years ago. The rigs they have could boost daily rates for the U.S land drilling company.

 

Chesapeakes Energy`s plan would increase the number of Haynesville rigs 25% – 50 by the end of this year. Renewed gas drilling could drive up margins for U.S rig contractors. CHK have spent a lot of money in oil shale drilling, so higher demand will help then in the future.

 

It will be interesting to see who buyer will be in CHK. Is it gonna be Icahn, Exxon Mobil or ConocoPhillips? All of them are potential buyers while European majors disqualify themselves. Carl Icahn sold half of his stake in Netflix last year. He have success with investments in Herbalife (HLF) and Apple (AAPL) too.

 

Selling half of his shares in Netflix gave him a profit of $800 million. Carl Icahn started in 1980`s as an activist investor and there has never been a better time for activist investing than today. Activist involvement is necessary to ensure the competitiveness of corporate America. Chesapeake Energy is more of a restructuring play right now. CHK will probably continue to sell itself piece by piece.

Reports today:

10:00 AM ET CB Consumer Confidence

 

CHK

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Filed under Commodities, Stock market, Stocks

Social Media Future

Robert Murdoch bought MySpace in 2005. One year later he incorporated it into Fox Interactive Media. It all peaked out in 2008, and MySpace was getting 76 million visitors a month. In 2009 they brought in about $470 million. This revenue came from advertising.

facebook logo

Suddenly, MySpace was not so cool anymore. The new #1 Social media choice was Facebook. MySpace lost 50% of the monthly visitors and revenues has plummeted to only $34 million. It can change very fast in this business.

 

People thought that MySpace was a website where spam and crime were rampant. MySpace was losing market shares and Facebook became the new winner. MySpace gave up its user experience and Facebook was better and more secure and clutter free with ads on the sidelines of the user experience.

 

Facebook celebrated its 10th birthday a few weeks ago, and I`m impressed of what Facebook has been doing so far despite all the negative critics from people who said the company is doomed. We have seen what have happened to others like MySpace. Is Facebook just a part of a social media evolution? The stock is now trading at $69,63%. Up +2,31% yesterday – after WhatsApp news.

 

Reports today:

 

10:00AM ET Existing Home Sales

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Facebook to buy WhatsApp

The world largest social network Facebook (FB), agreed to purchase WhatsApp inc. The price: $19 billion. Facebook will pay with cash and stocks. Yesterday, Facebook said in a statement that they will buy WhatsApp for $4 billion in cash, $12 billion in stocks and $3 billion is restricted shares.

facebook logo

CEO Mark Zuckerberg bought Instagram in 2012 for $700 million. Not so much money compared to WhatsApp, but this is Facebook`s biggest acquisition so far. According to Bloomberg this is the largest internet deal since Time Warner`s $124 billion merger with AOL in 2001.

 

With WhatsApp you can send text messages for free. WhatsApp is free for the first year, and then it costs 99 cents a year. Other competitors are WeChat (China), Kakao Talk (Korea) and Line (Japan) to name a few of them.

 

But who have not sent text messages for free? What about Skype, MSN, ChatON and Facebook messenger? You can also chat on Google. Do you remember ICQ? How difficult is it to start a new one? Take a look at all the text messages around the world. It`s massive!

 

Facebook`s market cap is now $170 billion, trading at $68,06. Up +1,13% yesterday, but down -3,47% AH. With this valuation you know that investors value Facebook for the future, and not today. This looks like the tech bubble in late 90`s, so be careful and think about the peak potential for Facebook in the future.

 

Reports today:

 

08:30AM ET Consumer Price Index
08:30AM ET Jobless Claims
08:58AM ET PMI Manufacturing Index Flach
10:00AM ET Philadelphia Fed Survey
11:00AM ET EIA Petroluem Status Report

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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