Category Archives: Stock market

Cyber Monday Sales

More sales to Amazone and Ebay. Not only Thanksgiving and Black Friday is increasing their revenue. Cyber Monday Sales is coming on top of that. What`s next? Consumer Confidence is falling, but online shopping is taking off!

Web sales is projecting to climb 15% this holiday season, while retail sales is growing only 3,9%. This is three times faster than the retail sales. Cyber Monday has historically been the single biggest shopping day of the year so far for U.S retailers, but this is not the reality anymore as the web shops continue to gain share.

Shopping on tablets and smartphones increased twice as fast in the third quarter as desktop online spending, according to ComScore. Thanksgiving have shown that tablets are more popular for purchases, while mobile phones are preferred for browsing.

This is good news for FedEx, Ups, DHL and U.S Postal Services. As the online shopping increase, the amount of packages, revenue and work for the shipping companies will also increase. Amazone and Ebay are big, but there is someone out there that is much much bigger and they are not on the stock exchange yet. I will write about them later.

Investors and money makers are now waiting for December 18.

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Online shopping increasing – foot traffic declines

Online shopping is taking off. Amazon was the most visited online retailer followed by EBay and Wal-Mart`s site. It is reported that the online orders is twice as many on black friday this year than last year.

The trend is that the shoppers is planning to buy before they shop, and it is a lot of mission shopping going on. That is bad news for retailers because they lose their impulse purchase which is about 20% of their holiday sales.

The report Institute of Supply Management`s November manufactoring survey will be on the radar today. This is the most closely followed report, and gives a great snapshot on the economy for the recent month. It is expected to fall back to 55 in November (56,4 in October).

ADP data on private-sector employment, the trade balance, new home sales, ISM non-manufacturing index and FED`s Beige Book later this week are interesting news. Later on we have jobless claims, and a revision to third-quarter gross domestic product and factory orders.

News sometimes moves the markets. Money makers has lost faith in Gold and the gold price is dropping down, trading at $ 1235,90. Gold is set for the first annual drop in 13 years. News today: FED chairman Ben Bernanke speaks at 8:30am, ISM Manufactoring PMI at 10:00am.

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Price to book ratio (P/B)

Now and then I write about some stock tools, and today I will write about price to book ratio (P/B). Let`s say a stock price for company A is $10 (1 million shares). This is called the market value. Market is often investors, analysts and newspapers. But this is often not the value of the business according to its “books” or financial value.

The companies book value is calculated from the balance sheet, and it is the difference between a company’s total assets and total liabilities. This is what we call the shareholders equity. Let`s say company A has total assets of $50 million, and total liabilities is $30 million. Then the value of the company is $20 million.

If Company A sold the assets and paid the liabilities, the equity value, or the net worth of the business would be $20 million. If the stock price was trading at $10 (and they have 1 million shares), then you know that the company is undervalued. This is how it is so important to look at the P/B compared to the equity price.

Definition of price to book ratio: P/B is used to compare a stocks market value to its book value.

Value investors are searching for stocks that the market has passed by. What they are looking for is really HOT stocks. They simply look for companies that no one are paying much attention to at the beginning and that is often called penny stocks. Is is a strategy to hold the stocks for years until one day the market discovers the stocks on their screen and start to buy.

At this stage, value investors are looking for other indicators than earnings growth. What they are looking for is Price to book ratio (P/B). This measurement simply tells us the value the market places on the book value of the company.

A low P/B can indicate that the stock is undervalued, but it could also mean that it is something terribly wrong. Be aware that this ratio (like other ratios) varies from industry to industry. In addition; it tells you whether you are paying too much for what`s left in the company if it went bankrupt tomorrow.

Calculate like this:

P/B = Share Price / Book Value Per Share

The lower the P/B, the better the value. It is better to identify potential companies this way.

News today (all times are Eastern Times):

Core Durable Goods & Unemployment Claims at 8:30am,

Chicago PMI & Revised Consumer Confidence at 9:55am,

Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30am.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Consumer Spending

«There is only one side to the market.

Not the bull side or the bear side, but the RIGHT side».

Jesse Livermore

Another record high for the DOW yesterday, and Nasdaq topped 4,000 for the first time in 13 years.

Nasdaq closed at 3,994,573. Earlier it touched an intraday high at 4,007,093. The Dow ended at 16,072,54. S&P 500 dipped 2,28% and closed at 1,802,48.

It was not a good day for social media stocks yesterday. Twitter was down 4,7% and are now trading at $39,06. Facebook is down 3,1% and are breaking down from a technical support at $45,80. Facebook is now trading at $44,82. Yelp slid 6,7% and are now trading at $58,20.

Many investors are scared and expect a pullback, but the stock market can still go higher. The Dow has increased seven weeks in a row now, and S&P 500 is up 26,4% for the year. Investors continue to turn their back on gold and they expect the gold price to decline to $1,180 and that is its three year low.

Investors follow U.S data reports closely to gauge if they will strengthen or weaken the case for the Fed to start tapering in December. Gold prices are sliding down on concerns the Fed would start tapering its 85 billion a month asset-purchase program in December. So do the Silver prices, but Copper is up 1,33% on the week.

The precious metal turned bearish after the Fed`s minutes meeting. Fed said they will start tapering if the economy continues to improve as expected. Consumer confidence will be an important number to follow today. A level below 70 starts to be critical.

It is a shopping week now. Black Friday is the friday following Thanksgiving Day in the United States and this is usually the beginning of the Christmas shopping season. Shops opens earlier than scheduled, and this has been the busiest shopping day of the year since 2005.

Consumer confidence fell to 72,0 in November and that is its lowest since December 2011. The economists expected 74,5 this month so this was a surprise for them all. Forecast for the consumer confidence later today is 72,2 (previous 71,2). I will follow this later today (10.00am EST).

News today: Building permits and housing starts at 8.30am, CB Consumer confidence at 10.00am.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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Consumer Confidence is declining

It is thanksgiving week and this week is usually a low volume week. Traders are off enjoying the extended holiday, and if something moves, it will move monday and Tuesday. Since we are at the all time high, maybe some people are thinking profit taking?

Consumer confidence is declining. This gives us an idea about the consumer spending in the U.S economy. If people don`t feel great about their own economy, they will not spend so much money. It is just that simple.

I wrote about Apple and their new products and they really need to do it well in Q4. If people don`t have money to spend, they will not buy any Apple products like phones, tablets or other innovative products. They will rather keep what they have and cut back on their discretionary spending.

If people don`t spend money this holiday season, companies will not earn so much money and the stock prices will not go up. Nor the GDP (gross domestic product) will go up.

What really drives the U.S economy are suggesting there isn`t much light at the end of the tunnel. What about the so-called economic recovery we have seen since the financial crises? Does it work?

Gold is trading at $1231,50. Down -1,01%. As long as the inflation is low, the gold will continue to decline. People expect hyper inflation, but Janet Yellen are fighting against deflation. News today: Pending Home Sales at 10:00am.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Shiny bull. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Shiny bull nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Shiny bull and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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